Article: Draft Gem Duffey Set To Debut

[Nick Nelson]

When Tommy Milone landed on the disabled list with an elbow strain over the weekend, it was Tyler Duffey who got the call to take his place. Though Jose Berrios and Trevor May were also strong candidates for the assignment, Duffey is the most logical choice at this time, and plenty deserving.

 

His big-league debut Wednesday night in Toronto will mark a big moment in what is shaping up to be one of the organization's most impressive developmental success stories in years.Berrios and May have also been success stories, of course, but not quite in the same sense. The Twins spent the No. 32 overall pick in the 2012 draft to acquire Berrios, widely viewed as one of the best high school pitchers in the class. And they had to give up a quality big-league asset (Ben Revere) six months later in order to bring aboard May, who was one of the Philadelphia's more established arms in the minors.

 

Duffey was selected 128 picks after Berrios, in the fifth round. He had been a dominant closer at Rice University but was one of several collegiate relief arms that the Twins targeted with designs on being converted to a starter.

 

In most cases, that didn't pan out. In his case, it has worked out beautifully.

 

Duffey began transitioning into a starting role in 2013 and has been working in that capacity exclusively since the start of 2014. His results have gradually grown better and better since the switch, and that's an extremely promising sign.

 

Last year, his first fully committed to starting, Duffey put up a 3.68 ERA while averaging 6.8 K/9. He allowed 17 homers in 149 innings. This year, competing at the highest levels of the minors, he has a 2.66 ERA while averaging 8.0 K/9. He has allowed one home run in 132 innings.

 

As encouraging as the improved results are, so too is his steadily increasing workload, which suggests that his arm is responding well to the rigors of starting. Last year he made 25 starts; in the first 13, he completed seven innings only once. He made it that distance six times in his final 12 turns. This year he has already completed seven-plus frames 10 times in his 21 starts between Double-A and Triple-A.

 

Though the reverse path is quite common, there is a litany of hurdles involved with turning a reliever into a starter, and it's pretty rare to see it work out so well (thus, my reservations about drafting Tyler Jay sixth overall this year). But gambling on Duffey with a fifth-round pick was a savvy move for the Twins and now, just over three years later, they'll see the dividends on a major-league mound.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

Great article!

 

Duffey is a strong kid, and he can eat some innings when he is on because he doesn't throw a lot of pitches. I don't think he'd be on any sort of innings limit, maybe 170-180. 

 

Also, we need to be excited about him debuting in the big leagues and his potential... however, we need to remember that he has to overcome nerves and excitement AND the Blue Jays offense. 

 

I talked to him in spring training. Check that story out here. 

[mumoo13]

Why was Duffey a more logical choice than May?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Why was Duffey a more logical choice than May?

May isn't stretched out

[Seth Stohs]

 

Why was Duffey a more logical choice than May?

 

And May can dominate in the bullpen. Really, this was a pretty easy choice.

[tobi0040]

 

And May can dominate in the bullpen. Really, this was a pretty easy choice.

 

Now that May is not stretched out it was an easier choice.  But the Twins should not have put themselves in this position

 

We are in the wild card hunt, yet arguably one of the top 2-3 pitching talents on our team has pitched 11 innings in the last month, while a guy that was not on most top 20 prospects lists gets the nod, and will get more innings after two starts.

 

This just isn't a talented enough team to be making silly roster decisions like starting your 7th or 8th best starter over maybe your 2nd or 3rd best.  Or giving Shane Robinson 150 AB's when all the OF positions defensively are covered many times over by much better hitters.

 

 

[big dog]

I want May to start as soon as possible, but it's also time to see what Duffey can bring to the team this year and hopefully in the future.  Good luck to Mr. Duffey- welcome to The Show.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

I'm happy for Duffey. I agree with the article. His story has to be one of the best development stories to come out of the Twins system (one that has had very few in recent years).

 

Good luck to him tonight. I can't imagine having the first four batters to face in a pro debut being Tulowitzki, Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion. SCARY!!! At least the Twins bats have been rolling lately. (hahha)

[TRex]

 

 while a guy that was not on most top 20 prospects lists gets the nod, and will get more innings after two starts.

 

I have no answer to the rest of your post, but I think referring to Duffey's placement on the 2015 prospect lists is a little mis-leading. He has knocked more than 1 run off his AA/AAA ERA from last year and increased his strikeout rate. I think it is fair to say that he will/would shoot up lists this year. Heck, at this point you could argue that he is a better prospect than Meyer!

[Seth Stohs]

 

Now that May is not stretched out it was an easier choice.  But the Twins should not have put themselves in this position

 

We are in the wild card hunt, yet arguably one of the top 2-3 pitching talents on our team has pitched 11 innings in the last month, while a guy that was not on most top 20 prospects lists gets the nod, and will get more innings after two starts.

 

This just isn't a talented enough team to be making silly roster decisions like starting your 7th or 8th best starter over maybe your 2nd or 3rd best.  Or giving Shane Robinson 150 AB's when all the OF positions defensively are covered many times over by much better hitters.

 

Fair enough. I think that May should not have been removed from the rotation a month ago too. But he was, so this is an easy choice.

 

Just so people have it, in the Twins Prospect Handbook, Jeremy ranked Duffey 12th, I had him at 16th and Cody had him at about 18-19. And, with his performance this year, the increased Ks, the lack of HR allowed, he moves up that list a bit. 

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

I'm curious for a comparison, in terms of stuff and workload during their college careers, between Duffey and Jay. Did Duffey have any special characteristic coming out of college that you can point to now and say that was a sign of his success to come?

 

Are there any well-known similar success stories among pitchers in the majors currently? In the past?

[tobi0040]

 

I have no answer to the rest of your post, but I think referring to Duffey's placement on the 2015 prospect lists is a little mis-leading. He has knocked more than 1 run off his AA/AAA ERA from last year and increased his strikeout rate. I think it is fair to say that he will/would shoot up lists this year. Heck, at this point you could argue that he is a better prospect than Meyer!

 

Duffey’s K per 9 in 2015 vs. 2014 is relatively flat.  6.8 across multiple leagues in 2014 and 7.1 this year.  We are talking about a 79 IP sample here.  Look at the numbers Pino, Darnell, and Ibarra put up in Rochester last year and the lack of success since.  Like Duffey, none were top prospects and a bit older.

 

Yohan Pino  2.47 ERA,  8.9 K per 9.

Logan Darnell  3.60 ERA, 7 K per 9.

Edgar Ibarra    3.44 ERA, 7.6 K per 9.

 

I am of the belief that baseball is a tough sport to win at.  Relative to other sports you have fewer that make the playoffs and more congestion among the teams to get there.  Almost all teams end up between 62-95 wins.  Over the course of the season the little things matter and the margin for error is very low. 

 

Instead of signing Stauffer to a $2.2M deal, we could have paid for an established reliever like Frasor, or shelled out an extra million or two dollars for a good guy.  Stauffer gave up 31 base runners in 15 innings.

 

May is a top 5 reliever on this team, both this year and next. Allocating 3 x the innings to Pelfrey or someone like Duffey is a blunder.

 

We have four guys on this roster that can play CF, yet have allocated 150 AB’s to Shane Robinson and his .607 OPS.  Give those 150 to an Arcia platoon and he adds 200 basis points to that OPS number and that helps you win games.

 

I am happy for Duffey too, but to me “he earned it” is a qualified statement that implies to me that a guy is one of your top 5 starters.  I don’t think Duffey is.

Edited August 5, 2015 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

Good luck to Mr. Duffey. It's an exciting moment for him. Frankly, I wanted him up here as a RP more than a month ago, so I'm glad he's in MN now.

[clutterheart]

Duffey looks to be an OK starter pitcher but I suspect he is going to give up a lot of hits.  He will be dependent on the D making plays behind him.   

 

Hope he does well but I would rather see Berrios or May.  Both of those guys have a chance to be impact pitchers in the bigs and should be the arms getting the priority.

 

The future of the org would be better served getting May back to starting and Berrios in the MLB rotation ASAP.

 

[TRex]

 

 

I am happy for Duffey too, but to me “he earned it” is a qualified statement that implies to me that a guy is one of your top 5 starters.  I don’t think Duffey is.

I guess I am choosing to live in the 'now', in which sense he is one of our top 5 starters (i.e. he is capable of starting today) and thus he did 'earn' his promotion.

 

If you want to bring in the argument that May shouldn't be in the bullpen anyway, that is fine with me (and, if pressed, I would agree with you). But May IS NOT ABLE to start today, and thus (for today) is not one of our top 5 starters.

[Mike Sixel]

And if Duffey starts 2-3 games, and not one?

[tobi0040]

 

I guess I am choosing to live in the 'now', in which sense he is one of our top 5 starters (i.e. he is capable of starting today) and thus he did 'earn' his promotion.

 

If you want to bring in the argument that May shouldn't be in the bullpen anyway, that is fine with me (and, if pressed, I would agree with you). But May IS NOT ABLE to start today, and thus (for today) is not one of our top 5 starters.

 

That is fair. 

 

But you have to wonder, did we not foresee an injury coming from one of the five starters, or someone faltering?  I would have moved Pelfrey there. But if you move May, he should have been seeing 3-4 innings at a time in the pen at a time so it would not be a season long thing.  And this could have been done in higher leverage situations like a tight game when your starter only goes 5-6, bring him into finish the game. 

 

Since his last start 35 days ago he has pitched 11.1 innings. 

 

Edited August 5, 2015 by tobi0040

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not quite sure it's fair to say that the Twins couldn't forsee an injury coming.  Exactly how should they have handled this?  Send May down to Rochester to remain stretched out?  I think that would have generated far more anger than what they did. 

 

Personally, I'm more concerned about next season.  They have 6 starters in Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, Milone, and May.  Someone is going to get hosed in that arrangement.  I fear that's May, and it shouldn't be. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

I'm not quite sure it's fair to say that the Twins couldn't forsee an injury coming.  Exactly how should they have handled this?  Send May down to Rochester to remain stretched out?  I think that would have generated far more anger than what they did. 

 

Personally, I'm more concerned about next season.  They have 6 starters in Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, Milone, and May.  Someone is going to get hosed in that arrangement.  I fear that's May, and it shouldn't be. 

 

Well, if Berrios is not in the rotation to begin the season there should be an uproar. He should be in the rotation or pen by now. 

[tobi0040]

 

I'm not quite sure it's fair to say that the Twins couldn't forsee an injury coming.  Exactly how should they have handled this?  Send May down to Rochester to remain stretched out?  I think that would have generated far more anger than what they did. 

 

Personally, I'm more concerned about next season.  They have 6 starters in Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, Milone, and May.  Someone is going to get hosed in that arrangement.  I fear that's May, and it shouldn't be. 

 

I don't know why May could not be a 3-4 inning guy in the pen and you don't have to use him in mop up games.   For example, 2 of Gibson's last three starts were 5 and 5.1 IP, both of those were one run games.

 

May could have came in and finished them up.  3 of Pelfrey's last 6 games were 2, 4, and 5.1 IP. One of those was a tight game.   A few starts ago Milone went 2.2 IP and it was a 3 run game.

 

 

 

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Well, if Berrios is not in the rotation to begin the season there should be an uproar. He should be in the rotation or pen by now. 

I don't think there is a chance Nolasco will be in the rotation next year.  He hasn't done anything in the two years he's been here and unlike when we resigned Pelfrey we now have good prospects ready for the SHOW and a much deeper overall rotation.  It should be Santana, Hughes, Gibson, May and Berrios to start the season.  I don't think Milone is consistant enough so I'd try to trade him and dump nolasco this offseason.  I doubt that'll happen but it's worth hoping for. 

[dan wants wits]

I've never seen Duffey pitch, so at this point I absolutely love him.  For the next seven hours, he's my guy.

[Blackjack]

 

 

 

Personally, I'm more concerned about next season.  They have 6 starters in Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, Milone, and May.  Someone is going to get hosed in that arrangement.  I fear that's May, and it shouldn't be. 

 

On the other hand competition is good.  And don't forget Berrios. May the best five win.

 

Good luck to Duffey tonight!!!

[d-mac]

 

 

Personally, I'm more concerned about next season.  They have 6 starters in Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, Milone, and May.  Someone is going to get hosed in that arrangement.  I fear that's May, and it shouldn't be. 

 

Gibson, May, and Berrios should be in the rotation next year. Full stop. This team needs its young core they've developed to be let off the leash finally so we can see what they can do. Trade Milone and dump Nolasco. That was easy, wasn't it?

 

The Twins have painted themselves into a corner with 3 averag-ish major league starters (when healthy) getting paid free-agent rates, exactly the kind of thing I was worried about when they signed Santana. Not only is it expensive, but it makes the roster inflexible. May, Gibson, and Berrios can do what Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco have done, but for a fraction of the cost and should they falter- they have options. The free-agent signings can't be optioned. And we all know Terry Ryan and the Twins' M.O., they aren't going to do what I suggested above, but instead we'll be stuck with 3 declining average to mediocre vets on scholarship. 

[Kwak]

Can anybody see beyond their nose?  Many of you have posted "play the prospects".  So, tonight one of them starts--why the angst?  Likely three starts to assess Duffey's potential as a SP for next season.  There will be trades made,  free agents signed, and next years team determined before 6 months elapse.  Is Duffey viable?

As for the selection of Duffey, he was likely the most successful of the "college RPs into SPs program".  The Front Office needs to justify that concept given the stench of the bullpen and that said college RPs were the most likely to "fix the bullpen"-but couldn't because the FO "made them" into SPs.  They (FO) need a success story to justify "their concept"--and Duffey has been declared "it".  Tonight is the first test.

[tobi0040]

 

Can anybody see beyond their nose?  Many of you have posted "play the prospects".  So, tonight one of them starts--why the angst?  Likely three starts to assess Duffey's potential as a SP for next season.  There will be trades made,  free agents signed, and next years team determined before 6 months elapse.  Is Duffey viable?

As for the selection of Duffey, he was likely the most successful of the "college RPs into SPs program".  The Front Office needs to justify that concept given the stench of the bullpen and that said college RPs were the most likely to "fix the bullpen"-but couldn't because the FO "made them" into SPs.  They (FO) need a success story to justify "their concept"--and Duffey has been declared "it".  Tonight is the first test.

 

We are in a pennant race.

 

Additionally, we already have more than five guys under control for next year and better prospects in the system than him.  As well us two untradeable vets.  All said, he is probably about the 10-12th best starting pitcher in our system so my hopes are not super high, nor is a two start look going to be a good indication of much.

 

 

 

Edited August 5, 2015 by tobi0040

[Seth Stohs]

 

Can anybody see beyond their nose?  Many of you have posted "play the prospects".  So, tonight one of them starts--why the angst?  Likely three starts to assess Duffey's potential as a SP for next season.  There will be trades made,  free agents signed, and next years team determined before 6 months elapse.  Is Duffey viable?

As for the selection of Duffey, he was likely the most successful of the "college RPs into SPs program".  The Front Office needs to justify that concept given the stench of the bullpen and that said college RPs were the most likely to "fix the bullpen"-but couldn't because the FO "made them" into SPs.  They (FO) need a success story to justify "their concept"--and Duffey has been declared "it".  Tonight is the first test.

 

Great point in the 2nd sentence on the prospects. Let's just enjoy it. 

Need more than three starts to evaluated his potential as a SP for next season.

I don't think the Twins are calling up Duffey because they have to prove something, or need a success story. They are calling him up because he is the most ready. Isn't that enough?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Though Jose Berrios and Trevor May were also strong candidates for the assignment, Duffey is the most logical choice at this time

Why is Duffey a more logical choice than Berrios?  Other than Duffey needing Rule 5 protection this winter.  Berrios has roughly the same innings at the same levels, 3 years younger, with notably better K/9 and H/9 rates, only marginally worse BB/9, and basically the same career HR/9 (granted Duffey has been stingy with the HR this year).

[TRex]

 

I don't know why May could not be a 3-4 inning guy in the pen and you don't have to use him in mop up games.   For example, 2 of Gibson's last three starts were 5 and 5.1 IP, both of those were one run games.

 

May could have came in and finished them up.  3 of Pelfrey's last 6 games were 2, 4, and 5.1 IP. One of those was a tight game.   A few starts ago Milone went 2.2 IP and it was a 3 run game.

I think the reason May couldn't be a 3-4 inning guy is that our bullpen is that bad! Like you were saying, we are/were in the playoff hunt! May's current 'value' in the bullpen is shown by the fact that on Sunday (when we were certainly still in it) Molitor had May pitch the inning after Perkins had blown the save. This was the first time all year that he has thrown May out there on back-to-back nights, and now he does it in the most dire situation you can have (on August 2, anyway).

 

I think if they would have let May pitch today in a bullpen game (as Seth rightly calls it), they would have also had to play Sunday down a man in the pen. Without knowing what to expect from the newly arrived Jepson, that seems like it would really hamstring you.

 

(Now, as it turns out we lost anyway, but you want to give your team their best chance)

[Seth Stohs]

 

And if Duffey starts 2-3 games, and not one?

 

I'm good with - an expect - that.