Article: Responsibility

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If the process says you should, then you should.  As in, if Robinson slashes .300/.400/.500 against lefties, and Sano slashes .200/.225/.250 against lefties, you probably should keep PH'ing Robinson for Sano against lefties, even if he does strike out 10 times in a row.

But that's a process based on results.  It's the same process that, in the real world, dictates that you don't pinch hit for Sano.

 

If the Twins had been turning up a lot of dominant relievers from Boyer/Stauffer level signings (the post that prompted you to bring up processes), yeah, this year really shouldn't deter that process.  But they haven't.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Because there's no evidence to suggest otherwise, either this year or using past history as a guide.

 

We've already won 6 games against those teams this year (having yet to play Houston), so winning one game against them isn't that difficult a task.

 

And nobody is suggesting that the team should have made themselves the prohibitive favorite to the win the WS on July 31.  Toronto didn't even do that.  That's not necessary to improve the team, and it's not necessary to "absolutely" mortgage any future to simply achieve some improvement.

 

Do you also advocate that we quit seriously trying to win games against supposedly better opponents that are tied in the 6th inning?  That's where we're at in the season right now.

 

Again, do you have concrete proof that Terry Ryan has been watching Golden Girls re-runs while letting phone calls go to a full voicemail?  If not, you can't with any authority say that TR has done nothing, this year or any other.  Absence of proof (i.e., results) is not proof of absence.

 

And sure, we've won 6 games against our wild card opponents.  But we've also lost 4 against those teams.  Furthermore, 2 of those wins against the Jays came in May, when we were on fire and they didn't have Tulo and Price.  One was against the Angels when Santana shut them down, but we won't have him in the postseason.  The other three were against Baltimore during our most recent hot streak when they were stone-cold (lost 5 of their past 7).

[Mike Sixel]

btw, I'm not asking Terry Ryan when they should go all in.....I'm asking the people here who said not this year....when?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Perhaps it was St. peter that said it in previous years.....and I found one from him for sure that said it in 2014 (St. Peter that is). I'll just concede this is the first year Terry said they should contend late in the season.

2013 for St. Peter, actually.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/4951-dave-st-peter-well-be-competetive/

[kielty4life]

 

Ok, but you can't just judge based purely on results when trying to determine if you should emulate a past action in the future.  For example, if Capps had been lights out in 2010, and Ramos had flamed out and turned into a 4A player, would you say the Twins should always trade top 100 catching prospects for "proven" closers?  If Shane Robinson pinch-hits for Miguel Sano in the 9th inning, and hits a go-ahead homer, should he always pinch-hit for Sano in the 9th?  If the results aren't matching what your process says they should be, then go ahead and evaluate the process.

A lot of people like my post.

[Mike Sixel]

 

2013 for St. Peter, actually.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/4951-dave-st-peter-well-be-competetive/

 

Last year also, while Terry was out, he said it after the first game or so......

[JB_Iowa]

 

Again, do you have concrete proof that Terry Ryan has been watching Golden Girls re-runs while letting phone calls go to a full voicemail?  If not, you can't with any authority say that TR has done nothing, this year or any other.  Absence of proof (i.e., results) is not proof of absence.

 

 

No, but he made it pretty clear there wasn't going to be anything very important.  He wouldn't be looking for any saviors.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

It's never a good idea to trade your #1 position prospect for a "proven closer" or any other reliever.  That's what I'm going on.  Then they lied that Capps had a role in making the playoffs in 2010.  Capps had nothing to do with us making the playoffs.  We made it by like 7 games or something.  It was a horrible trade at the time and just as horrible now.  I don't care how it panned out.  It was never going to be a good trade and I knew that.  Even if we won the WS in 2010, it was a bad trade because Capps was not any better than Rauch.  And we win the division easily with Rauch or anyone else closing games in 2010 anyway.

 

But your point, or rather Judd's point that you agreed with, was that TR is wrong to say he would trade Ramos for Capps again, because it didn't work out, and he needs to learn from that.  You're saying that TR should ignore any indicators on whether it would have worked or not, and simply accept that it didn't.  I agree that you should never trade a top prospect for a reliever, and I'd be horrified if the Twins traded Kepler for Papelbon, or something like that.  But it wouldn't be because one trade didn't work out in our favor 5 years ago.  That kind of thinking means that the Twins shouldn't ever sign another player from Japan, because Nishi was such a disaster.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Again, do you have concrete proof that Terry Ryan has been watching Golden Girls re-runs while letting phone calls go to a full voicemail?  If not, you can't with any authority say that TR has done nothing, this year or any other.  Absence of proof (i.e., results) is not proof of absence.

You're entitled to your opinion, and I am entitled to mine.  I've backed up my opinion with 17 years of results and media reports.  You are free to back up your opinion with whatever you wish.

 

 

And sure, we've won 6 games against our wild card opponents.  But we've also lost 4 against those teams.  Furthermore, 2 of those wins against the Jays came in May, when we were on fire and they didn't have Tulo and Price.  One was against the Angels when Santana shut them down, but we won't have him in the postseason.  The other three were against Baltimore during our most recent hot streak when they were stone-cold (lost 5 of their past 7).

And who's to say what kind of streak these teams will be on come October?  Or who will be suspended or hurt?  Or if Price will even be available to start a wild card game?  (They might need him just to get into the game.)  I am sure glad the 2009 Twins didn't pack it in because the Tigers had an ace in Verlander...

[markos]

 

Is not a few games over .500 winning? And what are you implying by using the term "trying"? Criticize his decisions for sure, including his decisions to hold fast, but can we please avoid hinting that there's some kind of effort issue?

 

Ryan said he expected the team to play meaningful games late in the season. Some people, yourself included, said he was not being forthright in saying that, but we've now discovered he was sincere, right? 

 

Your question might be rhetorical, mike, but can't we derive at least a modicum of satisfaction from the fact that they're in a place that 90% of us, again yourself included, thought they would not be?

 

And isn't it a fairly logical extension to think that, if they can be .500 or so in 2015 without a full season of contributions from a ton of guys (Santana, Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Santana, Polanco, Vargas, Berrios, Pressly, Tonkin, Pinto and several others), that they can win even more games in 2016?

I disagree with this. I think there is a real risk that the 2016 team will be worse (record-wise) than this year's team, mostly because I don't think this year's team is nearly as good as their record may indicate:

 

- Fangraphs (using Baseruns estimate) and Baseball Prospectus (using their Adjusted Standings) both say that this team should be on a ~70 win pace.

- Since they were 32-21 on June 4, they have been 22-30 - a ~70 win pace.

- Just looking at April, June, July and August, they are 34-44 - a ~70 win pace.

- Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus both project a rest-of-season winning percentage that would be a ~70 win pace.

 

Basically, this is a 70 win team that had an incredibly fortunate 27 games in May which allowed it to still be in contention, and their "success" will encourage the front office to just bring everyone back and try it again next year, even at positions (SS, C, bullpen) where the team desperately needs improvement. It certainly seems possible that the 2016 team could play better and still end up with a worse record.

[Kwak]

 

I disagree with this. I think there is a real risk that the 2016 team will be worse (record-wise) than this year's team, mostly because I don't think this year's team is nearly as good as their record may indicate:

 

- Fangraphs (using Baseruns estimate) and Baseball Prospectus (using their Adjusted Standings) both say that this team should be on a ~70 win pace.

- Since they were 32-21 on June 4, they have been 22-30 - a ~70 win pace.

- Just looking at April, June, July and August, they are 34-44 - a ~70 win pace.

- Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus both project a rest-of-season winning percentage that would be a ~70 win pace.

 

Basically, this is a 70 win team that had an incredibly fortunate 27 games in May which allowed it to still be in contention, and their "success" will encourage the front office to just bring everyone back and try it again next year, even at positions (SS, C, bullpen) where the team desperately needs improvement. It certainly seems possible that the 2016 team could play better and still end up with a worse record.

Considering that's almost exactly what happened for '07 (less the injured players--who were stars!), I am inclined to agree with you.  Hunter, Pelfrey, the Eduardos, and the rest of the gang will be extended to "lace 'em up in '16!"--Plus, Nolasco returns!

[jimmer]

I have enjoyed this season.  We've been able to see a lot of youngsters, we are still in the playoff hunt , and we'll win around 74, 75 games.  It's an improvement and I'm happy with that.  Yes, I wish more had been done at the deadline and there have been some moves I really had issues with, but overall, it's been a fun season.

[Boom Boom]

It may not be the year to go all-in at the deadline. I can appreciate that.

 

I wonder though, if the Twins were running away with the division, would it then be OK to make a big trade? Or would a Royals-like record make us think that no improvement would be necessary?

 

My point is that it seems like either the team isn't good enough yet to really push for a championship... or the team is so good that all the pieces are in place and we don't want to mess with the chemistry.

 

Either way, we have an excuse to not play at the grown-up table.

[bird]

There is also a risk that FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus win projections for the Twins (and others) will be off in both 2015 and 2016. Is there not some precedence for their projections to occasionally be off?

 

It's certainly debatable, but it's not at all illogical to think that the Twins and their record could be better in 2016.

[bird]

 

Considering that's almost exactly what happened for '07 (less the injured players--who were stars!), I am inclined to agree with you.  Hunter, Pelfrey, the Eduardos, and the rest of the gang will be extended to "lace 'em up in '16!"--Plus, Nolasco returns!

 

 

I can certainly see how you could think this if the only players that come to mind for you are those five players.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is also a risk that FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus win projections for the Twins (and others) will be off in both 2015 and 2016. Is there not some precedence for their projections to occasionally be off?

 

It's certainly debatable, but it's not at all illogical to think that the Twins and their record could be better in 2016.

 

It's funny, but there are actually studies about this on the internet. the projections are usually good, not great, like, much better than random stuff a GM says in the paper, or posters here post......

 

Hope is not a strategy. Positive outlooks on bad situations is not a strategy. Plenty of research on this as well, also available for free on the internet. Businesses don't succeed by hoping and ignoring their weaknesses. They succeed by acknowledging them and eliminating them.

[bird]

 

Perhaps it was St. peter that said it in previous years.....and I found one from him for sure that said it in 2014 (St. Peter that is). I'll just concede this is the first year Terry said they should contend late in the season.

 

OK, Ryan's off the hook on the "sincerity" issue and on the "stupid expectations" issue.

 

Now, if it was my team, the first thing I'd do is sit Dave down, tell him to shut his pie hole and leave baseball talk to the baseball people. My second task would be to call the executive search firm to start a search for a new president. Dave was sincere, sadly.

 

But if you put an ounce of credibility into something he said about baseball, it's your own damn fault.

[Mike Sixel]

 

OK, Ryan's off the hook on the "sincerity" issue and on the "stupid expectations" issue.

 

Now, if it was my team, the first thing I'd do is sit Dave down, tell him to shut his pie hole and leave baseball talk to the baseball people. My second task would be to call the executive search firm to start a search for a new president. Dave was sincere, sadly.

 

But if you put an ounce of credibility into something he said about baseball, it's your own damn fault.

 

Oh, I didn't for a moment believe they were going to play games in the fall that mattered the last two years, I put zero credibility into his baseball comments. Like I said, I thought it was Ryan.

 

I guess this year we can finally judge him on his comments. They are coming close to not playing meaningful games this fall.....

[bird]

 

It's funny, but there are actually studies about this on the internet. the projections are usually good, not great, like, much better than random stuff a GM says in the paper, or posters here post......

 

Hope is not a strategy. Positive outlooks on bad situations is not a strategy. Plenty of research on this as well, also available for free on the internet. Businesses don't succeed by hoping and ignoring their weaknesses. They succeed by acknowledging them and eliminating them.

 

 

Are you implying that the Twins are utilizing hope and positivity as their strategy? The positive outlook is the result of the strategy, not the strategy itself. We can criticize individual moves with credibility, but we can't be credible in suggesting they have a hope and a prayer thing going on here.

 

You're a sophisticated fan, and you haven't missed the many positive steps they've taken in this rebuild. The Twins are not ignoring their weaknesses. They're addressing them, albeit imperfectly. We may not like what they do, but let's have some balance here. Might you be the one doing the ignoring?

 

Edited August 5, 2015 by birdwatcher

[bird]

 

Oh, I didn't for a moment believe they were going to play games in the fall that mattered the last two years, I put zero credibility into his baseball comments. Like I said, I thought it was Ryan.

 

I guess this year we can finally judge him on his comments. They are coming close to not playing meaningful games this fall.....

 

 

Now now now...let's not change it from late summer to the fall!

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not ignoring anything. This team is neither going all in to compete, or building for the future. They are standing in place, like they always do during the season.

 

Here is what has happened in the time Ryan has been GM, that he's accountable for.....that matters past this year:

 

Hughes

Santana

Nolasco

Suzuki

May

Meyer

 

In 3-4 years, he's added 2-3 players that are good when they matter, and 2-4 that are bad. What exactly should make me excited about that?

 

You can say they aren't ignoring their weaknesses, but I can only judge based on the fact that Nunez has DH'd recently, they added a mediocre bullpen arm, and finally cut Santana after 3 months of being awful. I can only judge on actions, since I can't see the process. I don't see that as really doing much of anything, either for this year, or next year. That's my opinion, not a fact.....but I doubt I'm the only one with that opinion.

[USAFChief]

Are you implying that the Twins are utilizing hope and positivity as their strategy? The positive outlook is the result of the strategy, not the strategy itself. We can criticize individual moves with credibility, but we can't be credible in suggesting they have a hope and a prayer thing going on here.

 

You're a sophisticated fan, and you haven't missed the many positive steps they've taken in this rebuild. The Twins are not ignoring their weaknesses. They're addressing them, albeit imperfectly. We may not like what they do, but let's have some balance here. Might you be the one doing the ignoring?

OK, I'll bite, bird. What IS the strategy?

 

The many positive steps?

 

What weaknesses have they actually addressed? I'll give you throwing a medium amount of dollars at starting pitching. Besides that?