Your first thought is not accurate. Those guys are more 2/12, 2/15 or even 3 years. Of course you can get equal production if you sign the right minor league guys, but that is far from a sure thing.

People are saying having Jepsen next year for $5mil is some burden. It's a fair price and probably explains why the value seems a little higher relative to the rentals.

 

I find three guys at least comparable to Jepsen last off-season who signed in the ballpark I threw out 

 

Jepsen    3.85 career ERA.  Coming off 2.85 and 3.21, FIP 4.22 and 4.14.

 

Comps:

 

Jason Frasor   1-1.7M.  Career 3.49 ERA, coming off 2.66 and 2.57, FIP of 3.28 and 3.37 FIP.

 

Cotts    1-3M.  Career 3.99 ERA, coming off 4.32 and 1.11 ERA, FIP of 3.58 and 2.17.

 

Casey Janssen  1-5M. Career 3.49 ERA, Coming off 3.94 and 2.56, FIP of 4.14 and 2.74.

 

This is Terry’s biggest issue.  He dumpster dives and in the end has to give up more to fill the hole he created.  Example, Tim Stauffer.  He gave him $2.2M for 14 innings.  That is elite reliever type money on a per inning basis.  He can’t help himself from signing these guys like it is some game.  Moving forward, I really hope guys like Burdi, Chargois, Reed, etc. can come up and be good set up guys or this is going to just keep happening.  The worst part is you now mis-cast Trevor May to also fill this hole.   Milone goes out and now we have Duffey come up instead of May shift back to the rotation.

 

Hu was a borderline top 10 prospect in the Twins system. It is straightforward incompetence that he was dealt for a replacement level, or slightly above reliever. Ryan was yet again fleeced by someone much smarter than him.

MLB pipeline has him at 20 so that is one very large border. Hu throws 90-92 now. A pitcher's velocity peaks in early 20s and is very unlikely to go up and will be in slow decline. A right handed pitcher with his velocity is going to need some terrific secondary pitches. He gets A ball hitters out with his palm ball. While it works well in A-Ball scouts question whether it will continue to be effective as he approaches the majors.

 

I would have traded Hu before any of the other 19 players listed before him in the MLB pipeline. He has a chance to be a back end of the rotation starter or reliever. That chance gave him enough value to get a major league reliever who has done a better job of getting right handed batters out than anyone else in their bullpen.

 

MLB pipeline has him at 20 so that is one very large border. Hu throws 90-92 now. A pitcher's velocity peaks in early 20s and is very unlikely to go up and will be in slow decline. A right handed pitcher with his velocity is going to need some terrific secondary pitches. He gets A ball hitters out with his palm ball. While it works well in A-Ball scouts question whether it will continue to be effective as he approaches the majors.

I would have traded Hu before any of the other 19 players listed before him in the MLB pipeline. He has a chance to be a back end of the rotation starter or reliever. That chance gave him enough value to get a major league reliever who has done a better job of getting right handed batters out than anyone else in their bullpen.

Yes, this. Hu was nothing like a top ten prospect in the organization and if he is, your organization is in sorry shape.

 

With that said, Ryan still gave up too much for a reliever having a down year. I have no issue trading Hu but I have an issue with the return (and giving up Tapia as well!), which was unimpressive. Jepsen isn't a bad reliever but he's not very good, either... especially given his recent control issues and dip in velocity (though that may have returned).

Jepsen isn't terrible, but he also isn't the 8th inning guy the Twins need.

He is basically a ROOGY (a very good one at that)

Last night showed why he can't be counted on to just "shut down" a big inning, he faced two lefties and walked them both. He couldn't get a pitch by Seager to save his life. Then was able to get a big strike out from Cruz (RHB).

 

Jepsen is nice piece of a bullpen if utilized properly, however I'm not sure I trust the Twins to do that at this point.

 

 

Jepsen's "performance" left much to be desired, but if your team can only muster 1 run on 3 hits in 9 innings--your team is in deep "trouble".

 

Jepsen isn't terrible, but he also isn't the 8th inning guy the Twins need.

He is basically a ROOGY (a very good one at that)

Last night showed why he can't be counted on to just "shut down" a big inning, he faced two lefties and walked them both. He couldn't get a pitch by Seager to save his life. Then was able to get a big strike out from Cruz (RHB).

 

Jepsen is nice piece of a bullpen if utilized properly, however I'm not sure I trust the Twins to do that at this point.

 

Story of the pen.  Not enough talent, so everyone is playing out of role and worse than they should be.  The kicker is we are literally one good reliever away from everyone going back to where they should be and improving the pen quite a bit.

 

If we had a good righty, say Benoit we could use Perkins and Benoit in the 8th or 9th, whichever was best based on matchups.  Then you have Jepsen against righties and O'Rourke against lefties.  May moves back to where he should be (pen) and the rest of the guys are pitching in games that are out of reach.

 

 

 

I find three guys at least comparable to Jepsen last off-season who signed in the ballpark I threw out 

 

Jepsen    3.85 career ERA.  Coming off 2.85 and 3.21, FIP 4.22 and 4.14.

 

Comps:

 

Jason Frasor   1-1.7M.  Career 3.49 ERA, coming off 2.66 and 2.57, FIP of 3.28 and 3.37 FIP.

 

Cotts    1-3M.  Career 3.99 ERA, coming off 4.32 and 1.11 ERA, FIP of 3.58 and 2.17.

 

Casey Janssen  1-5M. Career 3.49 ERA, Coming off 3.94 and 2.56, FIP of 4.14 and 2.74.

 

This is Terry’s biggest issue.  He dumpster dives and in the end has to give up more to fill the hole he created.  Example, Tim Stauffer.  He gave him $2.2M for 14 innings.  That is elite reliever type money on a per inning basis.  He can’t help himself from signing these guys like it is some game.  Moving forward, I really hope guys like Burdi, Chargois, Reed, etc. can come up and be good set up guys or this is going to just keep happening.  The worst part is you now mis-cast Trevor May to also fill this hole.   Milone goes out and now we have Duffey come up instead of May shift back to the rotation.

 

Good comps and I stand corrected somewhat. I found similar guys getting 2-12, 2-15, 3-15 in the past two years, but didn't spend much time researching.

 

Does show that 1-5ish which he will get next year is not outrageous though. But certainly not a deal.

 

MLB pipeline has him at 20 so that is one very large border

 

Yes, this. Hu was nothing like a top ten prospect in the organization 

 

It feels like we are revising our estimations of Hu after the fact. 

 

I'm not predicting anything here, but the writers on this site had him Top 20 and Top 15 as the season wore on, a couple of our bloggers had him higher than that. These are the guys I presume follow Twins prospects more closely than the national stringers (I could be wrong). To me, TD rankings are more reliable than MLB or industry rankings. I don't mind trading Hu but I would not dismiss the idea that he might have been a borderline Top 10 prospect heading into 2016 if things had worked out a little different.  

 

With the proximity of Tampa Bay's offices to Fort Myers and other Florida League towns, I'd also bet Hu was scouted adequately enough. Hu surely has flaws but no doubt the Rays also think they can do something with him. They have a good record developing pitchers. 

 

It feels like we are revising our estimations of Hu after the fact. 

 

I'm not predicting anything here, but the writers on this site had him Top 20 and Top 15 as the season wore on, a couple of our bloggers had him higher than that. These are the guys I presume follow Twins prospects more closely than the national stringers (I could be wrong). To me, TD rankings are more reliable than MLB or industry rankings. I don't mind trading Hu but I would not dismiss the idea that he might have been a borderline Top 10 prospect heading into 2016 if things had worked out a little different.  

 

With the proximity of Tampa Bay's offices to Fort Myers and other Florida League towns, I'd also bet Hu was scouted adequately enough. Hu surely has flaws but no doubt the Rays also think they can do something with him. They have a good record developing pitchers. 

Sure. I'm not claiming Hu had no value but this board erupted into mayhem after the trade, way beyond what was warranted.

 

Yes, it was an overpay.

 

No, it was not a disaster (assuming Jepsen doesn't implode).

 

Hu never cracked a top 100 list. It was incredibly unlikely he would ever crack a top 100 list. It's also possible, maybe even likely, this is Hu's high water mark in value.

 

It was a bad trade (mostly because two pitchers were included, IMO) but it's a long way from Ramos/Capps in terms of "holy ****, what are you thinking?"

 

The way people are acting, you'd think Hu has the upside of Berrios, Gonsalves, or Thorpe. He doesn't. He doesn't even have the upside of a strikeout-diminished Stewart, IMO.

 

Sure. I'm not claiming Hu had no value but this board erupted into mayhem after the trade, way beyond what was warranted.

 

Yes, it was an overpay.

 

No, it was not a disaster (assuming Jepsen doesn't implode).

 

Hu never cracked a top 100 list. It was incredibly unlikely he would ever crack a top 100 list. It's also possible, maybe even likely, this is Hu's high water mark in value.

 

It was a bad trade (mostly because two pitchers were included, IMO) but it's a long way from Ramos/Capps in terms of "holy ****, what are you thinking?"

 

The way people are acting, you'd think Hu has the upside of Berrios, Gonsalves, or Thorpe. He doesn't. He doesn't even have the upside of a strikeout-diminished Stewart, IMO.

 

There is certainly a difference between trading your 7th or 8th best pitching prospect and your only catching prospect.

 

There is certainly a difference between trading your 7th or 8th best pitching prospect and your only catching prospect.

The Ramos deal was "tear your hair out, WTF are you thinking" across the board.

 

Ramos was a former top 100 prospect. He was injured and his value had bottomed out. The Twins had no catching prospects behind him higher than low A ball.

 

That trade still pisses me off. The thinking behind it was so fundamentally flawed I still can't believe Smith pulled the trigger on it.

 

The Ramos deal was "tear your hair out, WTF are you thinking" across the board.

 

Ramos was a former top 100 prospect. He was injured and his value had bottomed out. The Twins had no catching prospects behind him higher than low A ball.

 

That trade still pisses me off. The thinking behind it was so fundamentally flawed I still can't believe Smith pulled the trigger on it.

 

Agree on all this, yet somehow that trade was infinitely more explicable than the Hardy trade.

 

Agree on all this, yet somehow that trade was infinitely more explicable than the Hardy trade.

Sigh.

And TR says he would do the Ramos trade again. ......

 

And TR says he would do the Ramos trade again. ......

So get Capps back and offer him to the Nats.  

 

Sure. I'm not claiming Hu had no value but this board erupted into mayhem after the trade, way beyond what was warranted.

 

Yes, it was an overpay.

 

No, it was not a disaster (assuming Jepsen doesn't implode).

 

Hu never cracked a top 100 list. It was incredibly unlikely he would ever crack a top 100 list. It's also possible, maybe even likely, this is Hu's high water mark in value.

 

It was a bad trade (mostly because two pitchers were included, IMO) but it's a long way from Ramos/Capps in terms of "holy ****, what are you thinking?"

 

The way people are acting, you'd think Hu has the upside of Berrios, Gonsalves, or Thorpe. He doesn't. He doesn't even have the upside of a strikeout-diminished Stewart, IMO.

I don't see a fundamental difference between the two trades.

 

Both were overpays, indicating an inability by the GM to properly value players and execute a strategy to acquire them.

 

There isn't a difference in overpaying for a Yugo, or overpaying for a Dodge, or overpaying for a Ferrari.  They're all overpays.

 

And we know Jepsen was an overpay.  Broxton is pretty much the same guy.  The only fundamental difference between Jepsen and Broxton is the Twins have an arb year left on Jepsen....which might not even be a GOOD thing.  

 

Broxton was virtually free.  Jepsen cost someone ranked SOMEwhere on the Twins prospect list (and another arm, BTW...eerily similar to the fact Smith ADDED another player to the Capps deal).  Exactly where Hu is on that list, 15, 20, whatever, isn't really the point.

 

The point is, Jepsen shouldn't have cost that much.

 

 

 

If we had a good righty, say Benoit we could use Perkins and Benoit in the 8th or 9th, whichever was best based on matchups.  Then you have Jepsen against righties and O'Rourke against lefties.  May moves back to where he should be (pen) and the rest of the guys are pitching in games that are out of reach.

Did they move him out of the pen?

 

Did they move him out of the pen?

 

That was a typo for me.  Meant to say May would move to the rotation where he belongs.

 

I don't see a fundamental difference between the two trades.

 

Both were overpays, indicating an inability by the GM to properly value players and execute a strategy to acquire them.

 

There isn't a difference in overpaying for a Yugo, or overpaying for a Dodge, or overpaying for a Ferrari.  They're all overpays.

 

And we know Jepsen was an overpay.  Broxton is pretty much the same guy.  The only fundamental difference between Jepsen and Broxton is the Twins have an arb year left on Jepsen....which might not even be a GOOD thing.  

 

Broxton was virtually free.  Jepsen cost someone ranked SOMEwhere on the Twins prospect list (and another arm, BTW...eerily similar to the fact Smith ADDED another player to the Capps deal).  Exactly where Hu is on that list, 15, 20, whatever, isn't really the point.

 

The point is, Jepsen shouldn't have cost that much.

 

I agree with everything you said except the Broxton comp.  He had a 5.51 ERA and was making $9M this year. 

 

I also think Jepsen is our second best reliever right now.  It is all releative I know.  And we were in this position because we dumpster dove, again in an attempt to build a pen on the cheap.   $700K for Boyer.  $2.2M for Stauffer, which was mind boggling.  Waiver claims and Rule 5 guys.

 

I was fine with the trade because I don't have much faith in Hu becoming anything above a #5 starter and because at least we have two guys in the pen next year that are not the waiver claim and dumpster types.

 

 

I agree with everything you said except the Broxton comp.  He had a 5.51 ERA and was making $9M this year. 

 

I also think Jepsen is our second best reliever right now.  It is all releative I know.  And we were in this position because we dumpster dove, again in an attempt to build a pen on the cheap.   $700K for Boyer.  $2.2M for Stauffer, which was mind boggling.  Waiver claims and Rule 5 guys.

 

I was fine with the trade because I don't have much faith in Hu becoming anything above a #5 starter and because at least we have two guys in the pen next year that are not the waiver claim and dumpster types.

 

I don't think the ERA difference matters much for relievers with few IP. I don't think there's a great deal of difference in the likely performance of the two for the last 2 months of 2015. If forced to guess which one pitches better the rest of this year, I probably go with Broxton.

 

 

 

And I don't care one bit about the salary.

 

TR apparently valued another year of control, but my gut tells me if they offer arb this winter to Jepsen, it won't end well.

 

I don't think the ERA difference matters much for relievers with few IP. I don't think there's a great deal of difference in the likely performance of the two for the last 2 months of 2015. If forced to guess which one pitches better the rest of this year, I probably go with Broxton.



And I don't care one bit about the salary.

TR apparently valued another year of control, but my gut tells me if they offer arb this winter to Jepsen, it won't end well.

 

Yeah, but if you are looking for a two month rental you will want a guy that can step right in. I am guessing the 5.51 ERA for Broxton hurt his value quite a bit.  

 

Even if Jepsen gets $4.5M next year, my point is that it forces the Twins to shell out that   kind of money for an average to above average reliever.  In the past they have not really done that.  I don't really have confidence that absent of this deal they would end in a better place.

 

 

Edited August 5, 201511 yr by tobi0040

 

That was a typo for me.  Meant to say May would move to the rotation where he belongs.

I was out of pocket for a bit having surgery.  Thought maybe he was moved back and I hadn't heard.

A quick combing of Baseball Reference suggests this was perhaps only TR's 4th trade of players not on (or recently on, in the case of DFAs) the 40-man roster, in his 17 years as GM.

 

 

 

July 31, 2015
Traded Chih-Wei Hu (minors) and Alexis Tapia (minors) to the Tampa Bay Rays. Received Kevin Jepsen.

April 7, 2014
Traded Miguel Sulbaran (minors) to the New York Yankees. Received Eduardo Nunez.

August 31, 2003
Traded a player to be named later to the New York Yankees. Received Jesse Orosco. The Minnesota Twins sent Juan Padilla (September 2, 2003) to the New York Yankees to complete the trade.

June 12, 2000
Traded Francisco Alvarez (minors) to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received Mike Romano.

 

A quick combing of Baseball Reference suggests this was perhaps only TR's 4th trade of players not on (or recently on, in the case of DFAs) the 40-man roster, in his 17 years as GM.

There has to be more, no?

This from today's BA chat:

 

Jaypers413 (IL): Thanks for the chat, Matt. Do you think what the Rays got back in return for Jepsen qualifies as a steal? (i.e. Tapia & Hu)

Matt Eddy: IMO just freeing up payroll and a 25-man roster spot would have been a winning return for a mediocre, 30-year-old reliever. Instead, the Rays got a command-oriented starter prospect (Chih-Wei Hu) and a raw-armed wild card (Aleix Tapia) whose floor appears to be Kevin Jepsen.

a raw-armed wild card (Aleix Tapia) whose floor appears to be Kevin Jepsen.

That's not Tapia's floor. His floor is "never reaching the majors".

 

While I don't disagree with the sentiment the Rays won the deal, that's a pretty ridiculous statement that'd I'd expect from a message board, not a BA analyst.

I also found that part odd......

 

Was mostly pointing out what was said today, made all the more depressing by his opinion of Jepsen, frankly.

 

That's not Tapia's floor. His floor is "never reaching the majors".

While I don't disagree with the sentiment the Rays won the deal, that's a pretty ridiculous statement that'd I'd expect from a message board, not a BA analyst.

 

People get floors and ceilngs mixed up all the time I'm sure.

People get floors and ceilngs mixed up all the time I'm sure.

"Floor" has somehow come to mean "worst best case scenario".

Not sure that is the key point here.............