Article: Twins Acquire Kevin Jepsen From Rays

[kab21]

Jepsen is underrated

 

Hu is overrated

Tapia is overrated

 

The problem here isn't this trade but rather that it is a rather unspectacular and only trade. This trade is nothing like the Ramos trade though.  Ramos was an actual really good prospect that was MLB ready.  Hu has a long way to go before he becomes a Liam Hendriks level prospect.  I like him and am disappointed that he was traded but he has become way overrated here.

 

My biggest disappointment is that the Twins traded away a Taiwanese prospect.  I was really rooting for him to make it and see Taiwan become big Twins fans.  They tend to bandwagon jump whenever there is a successful Taiwanese player.

[zchrz]

 

So, I haven't seen mention of this yet: Jepsen in, who goes off the 25-man roster?

 

A shortstop, because we need 8 relievers, since we just traded for a competent one. 

[drjim]

Let's stop the whole "Ryan would have been damned if he did, damned if he didn't" talk because it's junk and missing the point.

 

All you TR-defenders who think everyone today who is griping about the Jepson-Hu/Tapia trade would be the same people complaining if he did nothing are wrong. The problem with Ryan and the Twins front office is not in how many moves they make, but what types of deals they make.

 

They are never progressive, never forward-thinking, never "ahead of the game."

 

For an example, let's turn today's deal around. The Twins were terrible the previous 4 years. However, they got great performances from a number of relievers during those seasons (Burton, Fien, Perkins twice). The most worthless asset for a losing team to hold on to is quality relief pitching, most significantly a dominant closer.

 

The Twins had the opportunity to "sell high" on these relievers but instead stood pat and watched as each (with Perkins as the exception, but his time could easily come over the rest of his deal - an extension from TR by the way - a "buy high" move) had their skills and value quickly diminish and get nothing for them.

 

Now take the Rays. Their front office, often cited as one of the most innovative in the sport, took the opportunity to flip a decent reliever for some intriguing prospects. God the Tigers just did the same thing with Soria. The A's with Clippard. Jeez, even the inept Phillies got rid of Papelbon and got potential in return.

 

The same Twins FO mindset has held true for position players. Think Willingham in 2012. The Twins have also continued to "buy high" with extensions, like Perkins's, to Suzuki and Hughes last year.

 

The frustration is in the methodology being shown, not in the activity or lack thereof.

Burton and Fien then had significantly less value than Jepsen did today. This talk of sell high on those guys is nonsense.

 

Whether they should have traded Perkins is certainly a valid question.

[USAFChief]

Burton and Fien then had significantly less value than Jepsen did today. This talk of sell high on those guys is nonsense.

Whether they should have traded Perkins is certainly a valid question.

Did Broxton have significantly less value than Jepsen? Because he and $2m went for one lottery ticket, not even a pitcher, with a 700 OPS in his third attempt at rookie ball.

 

If TR was going to cheap out, wouldn't that have been a better option?

[drjim]

Two thoughts from me

 

First, guys like jepson or better are available every offseason and can be had for 2-6 or 2-8. Do that instead of Boyer, fein, and/or Stauffer and you are not in the position to give up anything for them

 

Having said that and where we are now, scouts are not in love with Hu. Even the mid season rankings haven't moved him up. So given where we are an if we don't view him as a good future starter, then this is not a bad deal for 1.5 years of who is now our best set up guy.

Your first thought is not accurate. Those guys are more 2/12, 2/15 or even 3 years. Of course you can get equal production if you sign the right minor league guys, but that is far from a sure thing.

 

People are saying having Jepsen next year for $5mil is some burden. It's a fair price and probably explains why the value seems a little higher relative to the rentals.

[drjim]

Did Broxton have significantly less value than Jepsen? Because he and $2m went for one lottery ticket, not even a pitcher, with a 700 OPS in his third attempt at rookie ball.

 

If TR was going to cheap out, wouldn't that have been a better option?

Looking at it closer I think next year had much to do with that decision.

[Shaitan]

 

I'm curious as to who is calling the Braves front office great. 

 

Oh, and you do know the Braves went to the playoffs in 2010,2012 and 2013, right?. And that they fired their GM after not making it in 2014 and have a new GM?  

 

You also know the Rays also have a brand new front office this season and have gone to the playoffs twice since the last time we went?

 

P.S., does you post that apply to the Twins FO? Haven't made the playoffs since 2010 and haven't won a playoff series since 2002.

I didn't say anything about the Twins FO, but I find all the praise of Tampa's to be odd. It reminds me of Beane in OAK, in that he gets attn and wins games, but I don't see any rings or pennants as a result. 

 

[USAFChief]

Your first thought is not accurate. Those guys are more 2/12, 2/15 or even 3 years. Of course you can get equal production if you sign the right minor league guys, but that is far from a sure thing.

People are saying having Jepsen next year for $5mil is some burden. It's a fair price and probably explains why the value seems a little higher relative to the rentals.

If Jepsen comes in, earns an arb offer, and is effective in 2016, then I'll reconsider my opinion of this. It will look much better.

 

Still not a big enough effort for 2015, IMO, but much better.

[jimmer]

 

I didn't say anything about the Twins FO, but I find all the praise of Tampa's to be odd. It reminds me of Beane in OAK, in that he gets attn and wins games, but I don't see any rings or pennants as a result. 

I know you didn't say anything about the Twins FO, but reading your quote I wondered if it extended to the Twins FO? Since, you know, they fit what you're saying more than the two examples you gave (TB and Atlanta) AND Oakland who has been to the playoffs the last three seasons.

 

Also, for years, TB and Oakland got more win for the buck than pretty much anyone.  

[drjim]

If Jepsen comes in, earns an arb offer, and is effective in 2016, then I'll reconsider my opinion of this. It will look much better.

 

Still not a big enough effort for 2015, IMO, but much better.

It was pretty much an embarrassing effort for 2015. Ryan absolutely should have snatched up one of the rentals.

 

2 relievers should have been the minimum. He might think he can wait until August but it could easily be too late.

 

All that said, I would still say (and think basically everyone agrees) that giving up a legit prospect or prospects for a rental would have been mistake.

 

Good for Toronto for going for it but they have a significantly different calculus including a GM that might be fired. Nothing to lose by pushing all in, let the next guy clean up the mess if it fails. If it succeeds he gets an extension.

[kab21]

 

Did Broxton have significantly less value than Jepsen? Because he and $2m went for one lottery ticket, not even a pitcher, with a 700 OPS in his third attempt at rookie ball.

If TR was going to cheap out, wouldn't that have been a better option?

Are we talking about the same Broxton that has a 5.89 ERA? 

 

I really don't understand the angst in this particular deal.  I understand the angst in the big picture of the trade deadline moves (lack thereof).

[drjim]

Are we talking about the same Broxton that has a 5.89 ERA?

 

I really don't understand the angst in this particular deal. I understand the angst in the big picture of the trade deadline moves (lack thereof).

I assume those two things have blended together.

[LaBombo]

 

Are we talking about the same Broxton that has a 5.89 ERA? 

 

 

 

Yes, along with a higher K rate than Jep, a walk rate just over half of KJ's, and a 3.65 FIP/3.07 xFIP to match.

 

So he not only cost less than the Jepster, he's also got some peripherals that suggest he's at least as likely as him to succeed over last two months of the season.

 

As far as the "angst" regarding the deal is concerned, unless there are individual posts that specify otherwise, it seems safe to assume that it's all in the context of the overall lack of attention to the bullpen.

 

For me personally, the price for two months of Jepsen seems higher than expected though hardly outlandish, but the strategy of giving up those prospects for a Jepsen this late in the season, but otherwise standing pat (barring waver surfing) with this pen while still in contention seems suspect at best and exasperating at worst.

 

 

Edited August 1, 2015 by LaBombo

[jokin]

A shortstop, because we need 8 relievers, since we just traded for a competent one.

 

Or maybe 2 shortstops?

[jokin]

Yes, along with a higher K rate than Jep, a walk rate just over half of KJ's, and a 3.65 FIP/3.07 xFIP to match.

 

So he not only cost less than the Jepster, he's also got some peripherals that suggest he's at least as likely as him to succeed over last two months of the season.

 

As far as the "angst" regarding the deal is concerned, unless there are individual posts that specify otherwise, it seems safe to assume that it's all in the context of the overall lack of attention to the bullpen.

 

For me personally, the price for two months of Jepsen seems higher than expected though hardly outlandish, but the strategy of giving up those prospects for a Jepsen this late in the season, but otherwise standing pat (barring waver surfing) with this pen while still in contention seems suspect at best and exasperating at worst.

 

And it leans more to the exasperating side when you comp Jepsen's unfavorable FIP/xFIP of 4.13/4.10, luck-related BABIP of .254 (vs Broxton's .346) juxtaposed with your aforementioned nearly double the BB% of Broxton.

[kab21]

 

I assume those two things have blended together.

Not really.  These threads are suggesting that we traded a top prospect for a replacement level RP'er.  Jepsen is a pretty solid RP'er.  Hu is a successful MiLB pitcher that doesn't rank highly in the stuff category.

 

The problem is that the Twins didn't make a big move when some of the big moves didn't require great prospects but required money (short and long term).  They didn't need to trade the farm to get a good player but they needed to pick up some money.  Not surprisingly JR was very conservative this year.

[USAFChief]

Are we talking about the same Broxton that has a 5.89 ERA?

 

I really don't understand the angst in this particular deal. I understand the angst in the big picture of the trade deadline moves (lack thereof).

It's less "angst" than disappointment over a feeble effort--yet again--coupled with amazement that the Twins possibly overpaid for a feeble effort.

 

As drjim points out, TR was focused on not buying a rental. Well, if that works out, bully for him. But that's not a guarantee and it really limited his options. There's also no guarantee Jepsen is a guy we'll even want in next years pen, but he's going to get $5m in arb and be in next years pen no matter how he does. That's just about a lock to happen.

 

So TR quite possibly not only went cheap, he managed to overspend while doing so.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Last winter, Neshek signed for 2/12, and Gregerson for 3/18. I am not sure that Jepsen's extra year of control at ~$5 mil is all that valuable. (Why didn't we sign one of those guys rather than completely dumpster diving our whole bullpen?)

 

Heck, we probably could have acquired Mark Lowe for a similar prospect haul, he's owed $1 mil less than Jepsen in 2015 and can probably be resigned at a Neshek like price.

[drjim]

 

Last winter, Neshek signed for 2/12, and Gregerson for 3/18. I am not sure that Jepsen's extra year of control at ~$5 mil is all that valuable. (Why didn't we sign one of those guys rather than completely dumpster diving our whole bullpen?)

Heck, we probably could have acquired Mark Lowe for a similar prospect haul, he's owed $1 mil less than Jepsen in 2015 and can probably be resigned at a Neshek like price.

 

Probably seems like a big qualifier, and is different than absolutely, which probably explains some of the extra value.

 

I don't disagree with the first part, hopefully he makes a similar signing this offseason to pair with the acquired Jepsen.

[AKTwins]

I Don't think the trade is horrible but I don't think it's great either. I would feel a lot better if we just traded one pitcher but 2 is too much even if they are both low minors pitchers. However, Jepson is pretty good. He would be a back of the bullpen arm for good bullpens. I am not concerned about some of his stats being down this partly due to pitching in the AL east. The fastball velocity is the most concerning, but his velocity was also down in 2011. Looking at his appearances, he appeared 74 times in 2014 and 68 in 2010. This likely explains why his velocity is down. Also, it will create better competition in the bullpen next year so guys like stauffer don't receive automatic spots or we end up keeping a rule 5 guy all year. Also, we could let guys like Tonkin and archer pitch in earlier innings.

[ashbury]

Are we talking about the same Broxton that has a 5.89 ERA?

In addition to the comments already made, I think Ryan has enough ambivalence about advanced stats to find it difficult to pursue such a player if it's going to be his only one.

 

It's not that he's not smart enough to know FIP, xFIP, BABIP, HR/FB and so forth. It's that he factors in, "how the heck am I going to sell this guy to the ticket-buying fan base? They're just going to see the 5.89."

 

I give credit to Ryan that he'd pursue such a player if he thought it would be a difference maker, damn the PR. But rarely can you separate out such factors so neatly. The Cardinals are in a different place, for making a deal like that one.

[kab21]

 

Last winter, Neshek signed for 2/12, and Gregerson for 3/18. I am not sure that Jepsen's extra year of control at ~$5 mil is all that valuable. (Why didn't we sign one of those guys rather than completely dumpster diving our whole bullpen?)

Heck, we probably could have acquired Mark Lowe for a similar prospect haul, he's owed $1 mil less than Jepsen in 2015 and can probably be resigned at a Neshek like price.

This makes a lot of sense if you only pick out the guys that have been successful.  FWIW - I really liked the Gregerson pickup at the time.

 

But the Twins should have been looking at these mid tier RP'ers.  They didn't so there isn't much to do about it now other than make a trade. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

This makes a lot of sense if you only pick out the guys that have been successful. FWIW - I really liked the Gregerson pickup at the time.

 

But the Twins should have been looking at these mid tier RP'ers. They didn't so there isn't much to do about it now other than make a trade.

Yeah, they haven't really looked at middle tier relievers for a few years (or ever, really). When you're not developing good relievers, or giving chances to high upside guys, that's not good.

 

Actually, the bullpen is kinda like the rotation a couple years ago -- they let it atrophy by failing to develop quality options while more or less ignoring FA options, then arguably had to overpay/over-commit to middle tier starters just to catch up. A mild deadline overpay for Jepsen is a gentler version of that catch-up.

[kab21]

The thing that always frustrated me with not signing a mid tier RP was the money.  The Twins had money to spend but it was understandable that they weren't signing a bunch of guys to 4 yr 10-15M/yr contracts.  These mid tier RP'ers are available for 5M/yr on 2-3 yr contracts.  It isn't an outstanding value but unspent money is also worthless.  Instead they could have gotten a solid RP'er and a potential deadline asset. 

 

While I don't think Hu and Tapia are great prospects it would have been much better the last couple of seasons for the Twins to be the team trading a Jepsen level RP'er and collecting an extra prospect or two.

[diehardtwinsfan]

When I did my offseason plans for the Twins last year, it involved getting rid of a lot of the guys from last year's pen and letting some of the rookies (Tonkin, Oliveros, Achter, etc.) take their lumps in the big leagues.  Admittedly, at that time I had no clue that the team would be in playoff contention come the beginning of August, but still to this day I think it was a bad decision not to bring a few of these guys up and let them cut their teeth.  While I'm not sold on any of them per say, these guys have all pretty much proven themselves at AAA (and some of them have done this for years now) and need to be given an extended shot in the majors.  It does take time to develop.  I'd have much rather had a guy like Tonkin in that mop up role than say Stauffer, Boyer, or Duensing (though in Boyer's defense, he wasn't that bad at the beginning of the season). 

 

My biggest concern for 2016 is that we will be right back there because we didn't invest adequately in our younger talent.  Our pen that we can count on will consist of Perkins, Jepsen, Fein (I think), and O'Rourke.  Only one is a back of the pen option, and O'Rourke is more of a specialist (though he looks like very good LOOGY long term).  I think there are bullets in the system that can compliment Perkins, but they are either too far away (Peterson, Burdi, Reed, Chargois) or will likely need to take some lumps before they can succeed (Tonkin, Oliveros, Achter).

 

While I'm not a fan of paying a lot to get relievers, I do think there's something to be said about the value of having 2 or 3 shut down options in the pen.  My fear is that we really won't get to that point until after we've been contending for a few years, and I'd rather not be trading guys like Hu/Tapia to get them. 

[jorgenswest]

Do we all realize that a half season of numbers from a reliever isn't enough to consider ERA, FIP, xFIP and other ERA predictors? Using them to support an argument about who will be better in the second half creates an empty argument. Only the eyes of a skilled human can discern the pitcher with more value.

 

Over the last three years Jepsen has been extremely good against right handed batters. The Twins need to utilize this skill. He is the best option to get a right handed batter out in the 7th or 8th innings. The Blue Jays and Angels are loaded with right handed batters in the middle of their lineups. It would be a mistake to see him as an 8th inning guy without regard to who will be batting. This is the first year since 2010 where he has faced more left handed batters than right handed batters. I hope the Twins reverse that trend.

[SwainZag]

 

Do we all realize that a half season of numbers from a reliever isn't enough to consider ERA, FIP, xFIP and other ERA predictors? Using them to support an argument about who will be better in the second half creates an empty argument. Only the eyes of a skilled human can discern the pitcher with more value.

Over the last three years Jepsen has been extremely good against right handed batters. The Twins need to utilize this skill. He is the best option to get a right handed batter out in the 7th or 8th innings. The Blue Jays and Angels are loaded with right handed batters in the middle of their lineups. It would be a mistake to see him as an 8th inning guy without regard to who will be batting. This is the first year since 2010 where he has faced more left handed batters than right handed batters. I hope the Twins reverse that trend.

 

I am hoping this was one of the reasons they targeted Jensen because of the very fact that he has been that good against righties.  It makes for an interesting pen when you team him up with O'Rourke.

[stringer bell]

Another factor in this decision has to be what has happened to relief pitchers in the Twins system. Oliveros seems to have flamed out (injured now?) at AAA, Achter is a soft-tosser and Tonkin seems to be good at AAA, but has failed in his chances in MInnesota. At Chattanooga, the vaunted big arms of Reed, Burdi, and Zach Jones have flamed out, at least for now. A couple of starters may be moved to the bullpen, or maybe already should be there, but guys with a chance because of strikeout ability and high K rates haven't progressed as expected.

 

Having Jepsen both this year and next, seems to be an OK move. Giving up a couple of decent arms in A ball isn't terrible. It seems that Hu has overperformed his stuff, but it is questionable that he can move all the way to the majors and thrive.

Edited August 2, 2015 by stringer bell

[drivlikejehu]

Hu was a borderline top 10 prospect in the Twins system. It is straightforward incompetence that he was dealt for a replacement level, or slightly above reliever. Ryan was yet again fleeced by someone much smarter than him.

[LaBombo]

 

... Tonkin seems to be good at AAA, but has failed in his chances in MInnesota...

 

Agree with much of what you said, but not sure that Tonkin's MLB numbers really suggest failure.

 

His ERA in his 11 innings this year looks awful, but almost all of it was a result of a HR/9 rate that was more than 4 times his previous MLB rate.  His other peripherals were slightly better than Jep's 2015 numbers, and most of his three year MLB peripheral averages are substantially better.

 

And much more relevant now that the trade has been made, Tonkin's MLB peripherals, including this year's, mostly suggest that he's a better pitcher than Boyer, Graham, Thompson, and Duensing.