Article: The Twins Prospect Demanding Your Attention

[Ted Schwerzler]

As summer draws on and fall draws near, lots of changes shape the major league baseball landscape. There's the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and then the August waiver period. There're divisional races, and then there are September call -ups. Despite the Twins strong start, the most exciting period of 2015 may be that call-up window, in part, because of a Twins prospect demanding your attention.Sure, Jose Berrios is having a good year, Nick Gordon is trending up, and Byron Buxton should be back in the fold. In September though, it should be all about a 22 year old from Germany. Signed as an international free agent, Max Kepler has been playing in the Twins organization since he was 17 years old. He's been talked up almost equally as long.

 

Maybe not the uber-prospect that fellow international signee Miguel Sano was, Kepler has held his own. After struggling with injury issues early in his professional career, it's really been the last two seasons that Kepler has put it together.

 

Spending the entirety of 2014 with High-A Fort Myers, Kepler played in a career high 102 games. In that action, he slashed .264/.333/.393 with 20 doubles, six triples, five home runs and 59 RBIs. Any way you cut it, the Twins had to be pleased. As respectable as 2014 was though, it's been 2015 where Kepler has really put his name at the forefront of prospects.

Minnesota decided to allow Kepler to get his feet wet in a few games (six to be exact) near the spring training complex in Fort Myers. Since being shipped to Double-A Chattanooga, he has been all systems go. Owning a .331/.414/.529 slash line on the season (all stats are before the two homers and three hits on Thursday night), it's even more impressive to see how he's hit lately. Sine June 11, Kepler has batted .381/.493/.593 while playing in 33 games and being honored with a selection for the Major League Baseball Future's Game in Cincinnati.

 

On the year, Kepler has had success to the tune of 92 hits, 25 doubles, nine triples, four home runs, 44 runs batted in, and a near even 42/39 K/BB ratio. He's split time almost evenly, playing 37 games at first base, while being positioned in the outfield 34 times (most often in right). Kepler has been sure with the glove, making just two errors in 84 outfield chances as well as two errors in 317 chances at first base.

 

When looking through the farm system as a whole, and the Twins are well-noted as having one of the best in the bigs, you'd be hard-pressed to find a more intriguing offensive talent. As the production continues to toe the line of otherworldliness, Kepler continues to go about his business and make it look routine.

 

Minnesota no doubt has it's eyes set on which prospects will be considered for a September cup of coffee, and it's hard to believe Kepler wouldn't be first in line. Already a 40-man roster inclusion, Kepler has the markings of someone with the ability to push for an Opening Day spot in 2016. If he continues the run he's currently on, holding him down is something the Twins will find themselves unlikely to do.

 

As the wave of players like Sano, Buxton, and Berrios make their way to Target Field, don't make the foolish mistake of forgetting to include the German. Max Kepler appears to be the real deal and he should be getting a shot to prove it sooner rather than later.

 

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[diehardtwinsfan]

Side note on Kepler, those FTM numbers don't look all that special, but what I noticed last season is that he really turned it up the second half.  He was much better than the first half for what it's worth.

[hybridbear]

Can we get rid of Mauer & let Kepler play 1B?

[Monkeypaws]

 

Can we get rid of Mauer & let Kepler play 1B?

Is salary retention allowable in baseball trades?

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Can we get rid of Mauer & let Kepler play 1B?

 

I'd do it right now.

[TFelton]

I really enjoyed this article.  Thank you.

 

When Morneau was ready, room was made at first.  When the White Sox decided Paul Konerko was near the end, they moved on Abreu, were overt about it, and provided him a soft landing and celebrated his years of service.

 

I'm not saying the Twins would, but moving Mauer to a part-time player down the stretch of his contract makes a lot of sense.  I understand the financial side while I've heard that even the merchandise sales and other financial benefits more than covered the contract, so why not phase him out on a reunion tour Konerko kind of way or if he isn't happy with that, then would probably approve a trade (eat money with it) or flat out release, while hopefully doesn't come to that.

 

I understand the love hate relationship with Joe, more specifically the contract.  I have been lucky to see him play and appreciate his talent and overall performance.  I don't want to cast him aside as he means a lot to this franchise while it seems there are other options than sitting out 3 more years.

 

I struggle to accept the fact that we have 3 more years of Maurer at first, blocking a number of 'potential' replacements with high upside for next 10 years.

 

I don't want to turn this thread into a Mauer bash as I am not in that camp, but IF Kepler keeps up this growth and performance into mid-2016, he deserves a chance and the marketing associated with a German (Global) could be very lucrative to the financially minded Twins, not to mention where Sano finds a position.  Maybe Kepler is an outfielder I'd just hate to play him out of position as he is appearing to be an elite future, IF he keeps developing at this pace. 

[Linus]

 

I really enjoyed this article.  Thank you.

 

When Morneau was ready, room was made at first.  When the White Sox decided Paul Konerko was near the end, they moved on Abreu, were overt about it, and provided him a soft landing and celebrated his years of service.

 

I'm not saying the Twins would, but moving Mauer to a part-time player down the stretch of his contract makes a lot of sense.  I understand the financial side while I've heard that even the merchandise sales and other financial benefits more than covered the contract, so why not phase him out on a reunion tour Konerko kind of way or if he isn't happy with that, then would probably approve a trade (eat money with it) or flat out release, while hopefully doesn't come to that.

 

I understand the love hate relationship with Joe, more specifically the contract.  I have been lucky to see him play and appreciate his talent and overall performance.  I don't want to cast him aside as he means a lot to this franchise while it seems there are other options than sitting out 3 more years.

 

I struggle to accept the fact that we have 3 more years of Maurer at first, blocking a number of 'potential' replacements with high upside for next 10 years.

 

I don't want to turn this thread into a Mauer bash as I am not in that camp, but IF Kepler keeps up this growth and performance into mid-2016, he deserves a chance and the marketing associated with a German (Global) could be very lucrative to the financially minded Twins, not to mention where Sano finds a position.  Maybe Kepler is an outfielder I'd just hate to play him out of position as he is appearing to be an elite future, IF he keeps developing at this pace. 

If he is as athletic as is being reported, then playing him at first would be a waste of his talents.  Let him become a great fielding outfielder in addition to impact bat. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

If he is as athletic as is being reported, then playing him at first would be a waste of his talents.  Let him become a great fielding outfielder in addition to impact bat. 

 

doing what with Buxton, Hicks, Rosario?

 

there is no financial implication to playing Joe less, they pay him if he plays, or doesn't play. The key is to play the best players......

[Linus]

 

doing what with Buxton, Hicks, Rosario?

 

there is no financial implication to playing Joe less, they pay him if he plays, or doesn't play. The key is to play the best players......

You pick the best three, and while I am excited about Hicks and Rosario they need to prove it over a longer period of time before we consider them locks.  If they do prove it, you can deal Hicks for another position of need.  Hicks and Plouffe this off season should patch about whatever holes we have left.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You pick the best three, and while I am excited about Hicks and Rosario they need to prove it over a longer period of time before we consider them locks.  If they do prove it, you can deal Hicks for another position of need.  Hicks and Plouffe this off season should patch about whatever holes we have left.

 

Kepler will not have proved anything, nor will Hicks. Yet you suggest trading one this off season? I don't disagree with maybe taking that chance, btw, but I'm not sure I understand this response.

[Loosey]

I've been on the Kepler bandwagon for while now.  I'm glad he is finally blossoming into something that could be a legitimate MLB starter.  What I really enjoy is the fact he has been getting groomed to be a first basemen. 

 

Assuming not trades, FA pickups etc.  This could be a future Twins starting lineup"

 

CF - Buxton

RF - Hicks

2B - Dozier

3B/DH - Sano

3B/DH/1B - Plouffe

LF - Rosario

1B/OF - Kepler

C - NOT SUZUKI

SS - Polanco/New addition

 

Depending on what year the future is, Mauer may be the most expense bench player in baseball, but I like this young lineup.

 

[Jham]

 

Kepler will not have proved anything, nor will Hicks. Yet you suggest trading one this off season? I don't disagree with maybe taking that chance, btw, but I'm not sure I understand this response.

If we traded one of the future outfielders we would pretty much HAVE to re-sign Hunter or a similar short-range insurance policy in the outfield.  To the delight of the Pohlads.

 

I'm not sure how Kepler's career has been so different from Joe Benson's.  And it's almost certainly worse than the forgotten man, Ozzie Arcia.  If I had to bet on who was more likely to be an impact major-leaguer, Kepler or Arcia, I'd pick Arcia.

 

Kepler certainly doesn't seem to be drawing a ton of interest from other organizations...

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

If we traded one of the future outfielders we would pretty much HAVE to re-sign Hunter or a similar short-range insurance policy in the outfield.  To the delight of the Pohlads.

 

I'm not sure how Kepler's career has been so different from Joe Benson's.  And it's almost certainly worse than the forgotten man, Ozzie Arcia.  If I had to bet on who was more likely to be an impact major-leaguer, Kepler or Arcia, I'd pick Arcia.

 

Kepler certainly doesn't seem to be drawing a ton of interest from other organizations...

 

 

 

I'm not sure what that has to do with my post, can you help me understand?

[Linus]

 

Kepler will not have proved anything, nor will Hicks. Yet you suggest trading one this off season? I don't disagree with maybe taking that chance, btw, but I'm not sure I understand this response.

Then let me clarify.  At some point the decision makers are going to come to a reasonable comfort level with who they want to comprise their future outfield.  At that point, you can trade redundant pieces to fill other holes.  If you feel they will not have proved anything more by next offseason, wait another half year or year even.  Eventually it will sort itself out.

 

What I don't assume is that because we have 5 prospects that we have this glut of MLB caliber players.  That is yet to be proven - we may not ever trade anybody because at the end of the day only 3 make it.

[Mike Sixel]

If you wait to see who has no value.....how do you trade them for anything? That's the risk here, people (TR, imo) need to get over the fear of trading a guy that MIGHT be good.

[Linus]

Mike, you are now saying the opposite of what you posted above when you told me we couldn't trade them.  Plus, you might have 4 who are good and you can trade them.  For example: Hicks keeps it up and Buxton is ready. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

I'm not sure how Kepler's career has been so different from Joe Benson's.  And it's almost certainly worse than the forgotten man, Ozzie Arcia.  If I had to bet on who was more likely to be an impact major-leaguer, Kepler or Arcia, I'd pick Arcia.

 

Kepler certainly doesn't seem to be drawing a ton of interest from other organizations...

 

Well, I completely disagree, but let me point out just one way that Kepler's career has been different than Benson's and Arcia's.

 

Kepler 22-yo K% at AA:  13%

Benson 22-yo K% at AA:  27.2%

Arcia 21-yo K% at AA:   20.7%

 

Kepler 22-yo BB% at AA:  12.1%

Benson 22-yo BB% at AA:  9.2%

Arcia 21-yo BB% at AA:   9.4%

 

Kepler 22-yo BB/K at AA:  .93

Benson 22-yo BB/K at AA:  .34

Arcia 21-yo BB/K at AA:   .45

 

And while Benson was a promising defender, Arcia's defense is much worse than Kepler's.

 

That being said, Benson was a very good prospect who failed (as prospects sometimes do) and I think Arcia is being underrated, and that the Twins should keep Arcia as their DH, trade Plouffe, and move Sano to 3B. But that's another discussion. The larger point is that just because you can pick out a prior prospect with a (somewhat) similar profile that failed, is no basis to hedge against a current prospect. Nearly everyone (probably even Barry Bonds) has a comp prospect that failed.

Edited July 31, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[jimbo92107]

You can see why they've been playing Der Kid at 1B as well as the outfield. With Eddie Rosario and Aaron Hicks both hitting now, and Byron Buxton coming back to CF, there's no regular spot for Max Kepler in the outfield. He's too much like another Rosario, which is actually a good thing, but we already have one.

 

Fact is, Joe Mauer's bat doesn't fit a power position like 1st base. Kepler's not a big home run hitter either at the moment, but his numbers keep getting better, and it's looking like his power will continue to develop. With all those triples, we know Kepler's got serious speed, too. Sounds like an offensive upgrade, unless/until Kennys Vargas starts really mashing the ball in AA.

 

Having good young prospects is always a positive sign, even if it means pushing aside former superstars like Mauer. The game has always belonged to the 20-somethings, with just a few grizzled 30-somethings to provide mentoring and leadership. Mauer can still play, but right now I don't see how Kepler wouldn't be an improvement at 1st base.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Side note on Kepler, those FTM numbers don't look all that special, but what I noticed last season is that he really turned it up the second half.  He was much better than the first half for what it's worth.

Nice catch, I never noticed that while trolling Kepler's player page:

 

First half: .218 .317 .340 .656

Second half: .298 .347 .433 .779

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, you are now saying the opposite of what you posted above when you told me we couldn't trade them.  Plus, you might have 4 who are good and you can trade them.  For example: Hicks keeps it up and Buxton is ready. 

 

I've never said they can't trade them, have I?

[nytwinsfan]

 

Nice catch, I never noticed that while trolling Kepler's player page:

 

First half: .218 .317 .340 .656

Second half: .298 .347 .433 .779

 

And add to that another 82 PAs in the AFL last fall, where Kepler hit .307/.366/.440 (.806) and he has about 600 PAs of trending straight up.

[Jham]

 

I'm not sure what that has to do with my post, can you help me understand?

 

Mike, I was just pointing out that there was another guy (out of options) who wasn't traded (yet) who might be in the mix.  That should be a consideration.  Also, there is a currently still productive veteran (Hunter) who may want to return and who would be more likely to return if plan A included only unproven or mostly unproven outfielders.  I know you hate the thought of re-signing Hunter, so it's fair that you would want as many young guys as possible to alleviate the risk of dismal failure by one or several.  Veteran outfielders can be found in FA.  I don't see the point in having Kepler AND Buxton as untouchables when we have to do something with Arcia (who may be as good or better) and Hicks who many are also saying is a keeper and Rosario on top of that.  Sorry if I chimed in on your discussion with Linus in a confusing fashion.  

[Mike Sixel]

Got it, thanks for clarifying.

 

I don't consider Kepler untouchable at all, I'd just want a C or SS or controlled elite RP in return.* Otherwise, I'd rather keep him.

 

I get your point on finding a veteran FA OF, I don't trust Ryan to find a good one.

 

*in some package, not implying Kepler by himself can fix those holes.....

Edited July 31, 2015 by mike wants wins

[stringer bell]

Kepler is currently leading his league in all categories of the saber triple crown--OBP, Slugging, and OPS. He's 22 and also has 10 triples and 13 stolen bases. To me, that is domination. He's held his own since Buxton, Sano, and Polanco left the league. As mentioned above, his BB/K ratio is excellent. Der kid is breaking out, no doubt about it.

[kab21]

There really isn't a problem next year with Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, Kepler and Arcia.  Kepler (or Buxton - gasp) starts in AAA unless Arcia completely bombs out before then.  Good teams have good prospects in AAA ready to call up and fill holes when injuries/ineffectiveness happen.  The Twins for the most part have had AAAA players in AAA until recently. 

 

Loving Kepler though.  Such a cool story and now he is on the verge.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Twins have been a bit more cautious with Kepler (and rightfully so) given that while he has the tools, he's not really backed it up much until this season.  I think they take it slow with him and start him in Rochester next season.  I also think Buxton might be there too and they go with an OF of Rosario, Hicks and Arcia to start 2016.  My guess is that Rosario will likely be sent down at some point (I think he's likely going to be a sophomore slump candidate) in favor of Buxton or Kepler and that Arcia will hopefully become a full time DH/4th OF in favor of the other guy. 

[twinssouth]

The Twins have been a bit more cautious with Kepler (and rightfully so) given that while he has the tools, he's not really backed it up much until this season.  I think they take it slow with him and start him in Rochester next season.  I also think Buxton might be there too and they go with an OF of Rosario, Hicks and Arcia to start 2016.  My guess is that Rosario will likely be sent down at some point (I think he's likely going to be a sophomore slump candidate) in favor of Buxton or Kepler and that Arcia will hopefully become a full time DH/4th OF in favor of the other guy.

 

 

I think you're right about this. Since Hicks has started to hit, they won't rush Buxton.

[twinssouth]

I've seen lots of scouts at Lookout games and highly doubt Kepler is flying under the radar. If wasn't for his injury, he would have played at Futures game. Since he's had a history of injuries, my guess is they want to make sure he can play a full season. Be awesome if he was a September call up. The guy looks like a young Justin Morneau, just uncanny. He's really good, can play all outfield positions and 1st base. Since he made thru the trade deadline (wiping sweat off my brow) the Twins may have him on the untouchable list, at least I hope so. In my worthless opinion, you build the outfield around Buxton and Kepler, then fill in the blank on the other guy. I agree with Diehardtwinsfan, Buxton Kepler starting 2016 in AAA, call up to Twins. .

[diehardtwinsfan]

Kepler is on the 40 man, so I'd have to think he's going to be in mind for September. 

[kab21]

 

Kepler is on the 40 man, so I'd have to think he's going to be in mind for September. 

I hope so.  It doesn't make sense from a service time standpoint but I miss September callups of top prospects.