Article: Regression Causing The Twins Problems

[Ted Schwerzler]

A season ago, the Minnesota Twins lost 90 games, finished dead last in the AL Central, and watched as longtime manager Ron Gardenhire got the heave-ho. In the middle of all of the negativity however, there were three players who contributed at levels that could not have been imagined. Fending off regression with every at-bat, they helped to pace a bad Twins team. Now, as the expected regression has set in, they are at the root of many of the Twins problems.The most unlikely breakthrough candidate last year was the shortstop turned outfielder who put himself in the midst of the Rookie of the Year race. Danny Santana slashed .308/.343/.492 in 101 games with the Twins. Adding seven home runs and 40 RBI, Santana was incredibly productive at the plate. With Aaron Hicks struggling at the plate, it was Santana who took over the center field role. Things were going great, but many advanced stats suggested it wasn't meant to be.

 

Owning a .405 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), Santana's success never seemed sustainable. On top of waiting for that hammer to fall, his outfield defense left plenty to be desired. Sure the speed was there, but playing out of position was relatively apparent. Santana owned a -2 DRS (defensive runs saved) and had a -5.4 UZR (ultimate zone rating). As a whole, it was smoke and mirrors at its finest.

 

Fast forward a year, and everything has blown up at once. After winning the Opening Day shortstop spot, Santana has been demoted once and has been deserving of it happening a second time for quite a while. He's been worth a horrible -12 DRS and -4.8 UZR at what is considered his natural position. Santana also has 15 errors (fifth in MLB), despite playing significantly fewer games than the rest of the group. His .221/.241/.306 line at the plate is nothing short of ugly as well.

 

The perfect storm (or maybe imperfect) has hit for Santana, and left a gaping hole at shortstop. Not only can't Santana hit or field, but Minnesota is void of secondary options as well. While Eduardo Escobar is an upgrade, he's more backup material than anything. Jorge Polanco has the bat for big league action, but looks to be nearly as much of a defensive liability. Minnesota invested heavily in both Nick Gordon and Wander Javier, but neither are anywhere close to the big leagues. For now, Santana isn't the Twins shortstop of the future, and there isn't one in sight.

 

From the middle of the diamond to the position behind it, Kurt Suzuki is also becoming a problem for the Twins. After playing out of his mind in 2014 and securing All-Star honors, his career has reversed course.

 

Much like Santana, Suzuki was gifted by an out of whack BABIP. At .310 a year ago, Suzuki was enjoying the highest mark of his career. It help to push his slash line to an impressive .288/.345/.383. His 61 RBI were his best total since 2010, and the Twins locked in the veteran with a two year extension.

 

Considering the market for capable veteran catchers, the new deal wasn't exactly the problem. Between the extensive regression, and the lack of development, Minnesota now finds themselves in a bad spot however. Suzuki was not going to keep his 2014 pace, but his .225/.283/.300 2015 slash line is ugly. He continues to be a bad defensive catcher and has been worth -3 DRS on the season. Throwing out just 19% of base runners on the year, he's one of the worst receivers in the big leagues.

 

Minnesota has watched as Stuart Turner has failed to develop at Double-A, batting just .206/.292/.291, and Josmil Pinto has been unable to stay healthy at Triple-A. With the farm being void of options, the combination of extending a now horrible catcher and having no one to pair him with, has become disastrous for the Twins.

Rounding out the problematic group suffering from regression is none other than another young phenom, Kennys Vargas. After bursting onto the scene during the Future's Game at Target Field, Vargas was inserted into the Twins lineup to provide some pop. The first basemen was promoted from Double-A and went on to hit .274/.316/.456 with nine home runs across just 53 big league games.

 

Unlike the first two candidates on this list, Vargas wasn't seen as such a significant cause for concern when it came to taking a step back this year. What he has done however has no doubt hurt the club that counted on him being a power bat as the DH in the middle of the lineup. Batting just .245/.277/.365 in 47 games, the Twins have demoted Vargas twice (with the most recent being all the way to Double-A).

The Twins made a pretty big mistake in demoting Vargas the first time in the midst of the young slugger figuring things out. However, he has since not been able to rebound and continues to be the power bat the Twins wished they would have been able to make work. In a lineup struggling to score runs, the power that was believed to be there with Vargas is haunting Minnesota more nights than it isn't.

 

As an organization, the Twins are still in a good place. They are competing a year before they should be, and they have some good pieces going forward. With the regression of three players holding down key roles however, Minnesota must address the problems before they can take what might end up being the vital next step. There don't appear to be answers for either of the first two from within, and salvaging the third should be a priority. As the Twins look to complete their turnaround, these storylines will remain worth monitoring.

 

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[RedBull34]

Two Words.  Gambler's Fallacy.

 

They aren't playing as well as they should be right now.  It's not regression it's bad performance (luck?)

[dbminn]

Stuart Turner has yet to "fail to develop". He's a 23-year old college catcher in his first year at AA ball. Catchers have a lot more responsibility than simply putting up a slash line. No one should expect him to be dominating AA at this point.

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

Stuart Turner has yet to "fail to develop". He's a 23-year old college catcher in his first year at AA ball. Catchers have a lot more responsibility than simply putting up a slash line. No one should expect him to be dominating AA at this point.

 

A guy that is noted for needing to develop at the plate would have an arrow pointing a little higher upwards if he wasn't struggling with the Mendoza Line at AA> Not a failed prospect right now, but not where he should be either.

[jimmer]

IMO, the talent level this team has doesn't warrant the amount of wins we have now. Seems very good sequencing (or luck, if you will) led us to win more than we should have and we've started falling back down.  We had a losing record in Mar/Apr, and June.  We're sliding towards a losing month in July. We've had one glorious month which, of course, counts for overall record, but it's not like we had a winning month in every month and the losing has just started.

 

Our win total has exceeded our base runs and pythag.  I've enjoyed it.  Should we expect that to continue to the level it has the season so far?  Probably not.  When looking at anything, it's best to take extreme outliers with a grain of salt.  They count, of course, but extremes levels of performance one way or the other may give us pause.  Our May record and or June record are good examples of extreme outliers (one amazingly awesome, the other below 40% wins). Our Mar/Apr and July win totals say we are right around a .500 team.  Base runs says we should probably have a 42-53 record right now.  Pythag says we should be 48-47.  Nothing suggests we should have 51 wins even though we do.  So I'll enjoy that we do.

Edited July 24, 2015 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

IMO, the talent level this team has doesn't warrant the amount of wins we have now. Seems very good sequencing (or luck, if you will) led us to win more than we should have and we've started falling back down.  We had a losing record in Mar/Apr, and June.  We're sliding towards a losing month in July. We've had one glorious month which, of course, counts for overall record, but it's not like we had a winning month in every month and the losing has just started.

 

We have over played our base runs and pythag.  I've enjoyed it.  Should we expect that to continue to the level it has the season so far?  Probably not.

Agreed completely, which is why I think the Twins, at best, play .500 ball from here on out.

 

I'm less interested in the 2015 playoffs than I am seeing meaningful progression to set up 2016 and beyond. Don't get me wrong, I want the Twins to make the playoffs, but it won't break my heart if they miss October by a few games. I look at the 2015 squad and see a ton of potential but not a lot of real, tangible talent today.

 

Make a few small moves, improve the team, and hope things break right over the next two months. If something like Tulo falls into your lap, make that move but keep your focus on 2016-2018. Don't give up valuable assets for rental players, especially relievers. Trading valuable players for relievers is a good way to make sure you keep losing for a long, long time. All but the best relievers are so volatile that you may as well flip a coin to predict future performance.

[troyhobbs]

Always talk on TD on how Polanco doesn't have the make up to play SS. I've never heard anything about his arm being anything less than average. Average does not mean bad, although he's not playing good defense this year it's not fair yet to say he can't stick at SS. He was rated best defensive SS in the FL State league last year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Stuart Turner has yet to "fail to develop". He's a 23-year old college catcher in his first year at AA ball. Catchers have a lot more responsibility than simply putting up a slash line. No one should expect him to be dominating AA at this point.

Nobody's closing the book on Turner, obviously, but in the context of this article, he's clearly failed to develop overall *this year*.  He's the worst hitting catcher in AA baseball (min. 200 PA):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=5,6,7&qual=200&type=1&season=2015&team=0&players=0&sort=18,d

 

7 guys above him 23 and younger too.  Drop the PA threshold to 100 and 4 more guys 23 and under jump ahead of him...

 

However much he may have developed with the glove or game-calling or whatever else this year, he has almost certainly taken an equal or greater step back offensively.  Hence "failed to develop", overall, this year.

 

If he finds success again next year, it will be in spite of 2015, not because of it.

[AKTwins]

Suzuki is no surprise. I recall him stating last year that he was expecting to hit better in 2014 b/c he had not caught as much in Washington. He was right, hence his 1st half for 2014. The guy is catching slit bacau de we don't have a decent or even marginal back up. If we did Suzuki would be hitting better. Send Santana to AAA and let Escobar finish the year at SS, defensive upgrade and at least he draws some pitches in his at bats. Vargas is no surpise. He needs at least a year at AAA. He never spent a full season in the highe levels of the minor and thus did not have teams see him for a 3rd or 4th time. He would have been better off waiting like AB walker and Harrison are.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Suzuki is no surprise. I recall him stating last year that he was expecting to hit better in 2014 b/c he had not caught as much in Washington. He was right, hence his 1st half for 2014.

Says the team and player who rested little down the stretch last year in order to secure a $150k playing time bonus, this after getting a $12 mil guaranteed extension.

[dbminn]

 

Nobody's closing the book on Turner, obviously, but in the context of this article, he's clearly failed to develop overall *this year*.  He's the worst hitting catcher in AA baseball (min. 200 PA):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=5,6,7&qual=200&type=1&season=2015&team=0&players=0&sort=18,d

 

7 guys above him 23 and younger too.  Drop the PA threshold to 100 and 4 more guys 23 and under jump ahead of him...

 

However much he may have developed with the glove or game-calling or whatever else this year, he has almost certainly taken an equal or greater step back offensively.  Hence "failed to develop", overall, this year.

 

If he finds success again next year, it will be in spite of 2015, not because of it.

 

Thanks for the response, Spycake. I agree that we shouldn't close the book on Turner and also that his hitting this year is nothing to get excited about. Still, I'd like to clarify a couple of things:

 

• The article is about the major league team. Turner was never expected to be a major leaguer this year. He has advanced from A+ to AA and will need one more year at this level before he even appears at the edge of the MLB radar. No reason to use the word "fail" in this context. Just say the young man is not close to the majors.

• I argued that he was a college catcher. Only one AA catcher from your Fangraphs link was as young as Turner and went to college: Kyle Schwarber, a hitter who has failed to develop as a catcher. The others have had 3-4 years in professional baseball. Turner was a part-time, aluminum bat wielding baseball player who was also a college student.

• I probably wasn't clear enough on how I view young catchers. IMO, defense and game calling are more important than hitting at this phase of a catcher's development (23, 2nd year in pro ball). Catchers are notorious for late development as hitters.

 

Here's Kiley McDaniel's scouting report from FanGraphs:

 

"Turner isn’t the guy you get excited about at first glance, but he might turn into a big league starter behind the plate. He’s an advanced catch-and-throw guy that gives pitchers a big target, he calls his own games and has the plus arm to shut down the running game."

 

Sounds like he hasn't failed yet as a defensive catcher, which, to me, is more important at this point.

[gil4]

 

Two Words.  Gambler's Fallacy.

 

They aren't playing as well as they should be right now.  It's not regression it's bad performance (luck?)

 

For Santana, last year was good luck (performance much better than track record suggested.)  This year had been regression + bad luck, but most of it has been regression.