Article: Will Twins Address Their Most Glaring Weakness?

[RedBull34]

 

Plawecki is currently the Mets starter, with d'Arnaud on the DL, and they're just as much in contention as the Twins are.

Yea I know, it might be an offseason move.

 

Or we send them something and Suzuki (who we would barely count towards the trade) to cover in the mean time.

Edited July 20, 2015 by RedBull34

[Dantes929]

 

I don't agree with trading a top 10 3B in Plouffe.....I just don't get it. Not unless you get a MLB player, SS or C, that is signed for 2+ years. And, he'd have to be top 10 at his position......

This is a reasonable statement but in this case we have a prospect that we want to be the full timer at third so Plouffe, much as I have come to like him is expendable.     As you suggest, the exchange should be for someone in need of a 3rd baseman that has depth at catcher and is willing to part with a top 10 catcher that is under control for 2+ years.   I don't know who that is but agree with the premise.    The other thing I have proposed in the past is Sano for a similar catching or shortstop prospect, meaning very highly rated and near major league ready. 

Also, a statement at large.    TD posters do value Twins prospects higher and make trade suggestions based on that inflated value but don't kid yourselves that we are alone in this delusion.    Its not just the fans either.   Aside from a very few GM's most organizations have this bias as well which is why trades really don't happen all that often.   I can see parting with Berrios and Polanco for a great catcher but not just a good one.     I know not all prospects pan out so there is the possibility that we are parting with nothing.    There is also the possibility that we are parting with really good future pros.   On the flip side, not every "proven" top 10 major league position playerr pans out once acquired either. 

[Mike Sixel]

No way it happens statement:

 

I'd rather have Plouffe at 3B and Sano at 1B, and Mauer DFA, than Plouffe traded for a prospect that might not ever work out.......*

 

*I'm not sure I believe that, but I am seriously considering it as a real opinion....

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Agree. And it is highly unlikely the Giants would trade Susac (or Brewers trade Lucroy or Padres trade Norris) in the middle of the season. Good bats at premium positions with multiple years of control just don't move at the deadline.

 

I'll go so far as to say the Brewers aren't going to trade Lucroy for anything less than a King's ransom.  Very quietly, since being 18-36 headed into their first series with the Twins, the Brewers are 23-16.  That's 6 weeks of 95-win baseball, so if I'm the Brewers' GM, I'm fairly optimistic that I should be adding players in the offseason to compete in 2016, not selling off pieces at the 2015 deadline in order to rebuild in 2016.

[drjim]

 

I'll go so far as to say the Brewers aren't going to trade Lucroy for anything less than a King's ransom.  Very quietly, since being 18-36 headed into their first series with the Twins, the Brewers are 23-16.  That's 6 weeks of 95-win baseball, so if I'm the Brewers' GM, I'm fairly optimistic that I should be adding players in the offseason to compete in 2016, not selling off pieces at the 2015 deadline in order to rebuild in 2016.

 

And they should demand a king's ransom. Two more years of control after this year for very cheap. They could try again this offseason to compete and if it doesn't work move him at the deadline next year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I am not definitively calling him a bust, but he's clearly headed further down that path in 2015.  This was supposed to be his breakout year and he's basically fighting to get back to the big leagues.

 

He's still young, but few players in the league have sustained much success with a 31% K rate and a 7% BB rate, even with a .200 ISO.

Arcia's biggest issue is his frequent stints to the Disabled List, not a lack of talent. Even though he was "scuffling" early this season, he still had an OPS+ of 98 and then, naturally, he got injured and derailed his season.

 

He may turn into an oft-injured player whose value is diminished for it but I don't see him becoming a "bust". If the guy is healthy, he hits. It's that simple.

[howieramone2]

This is about more than this season, though. This is a major long-term need for the club. They will have potential internal answers in the bullpen and at SS down the line, maybe even later this year. Nothing at catcher.

I agree it's a long-term need. I would wait for the offseason when we can choose from a full menu.

Edited July 20, 2015 by howieramone2

[jokin]

 

No way it happens statement:

 

I'd rather have Plouffe at 3B and Sano at 1B, and Mauer DFA, than Plouffe traded for a prospect that might not ever work out.......*

 

*I'm not sure I believe that, but I am seriously considering it as a real opinion....

 

I would hope whatever trade possibilities come about, that Plouffe isn't traded for just a prospect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Arcia's biggest issue is his frequent stints to the Disabled List, not a lack of talent. Even though he was "scuffling" early this season, he still had an OPS+ of 98 and then, naturally, he got injured and derailed his season.

 

He may turn into an oft-injured player whose value is diminished for it but I don't see him becoming a "bust". If the guy is healthy, he hits. It's that simple.

He hits, but roughly around league average so far. If he sticks in this league as a starter, it will be because of significant improvement in some facet of his game (hitting or defense) that he has yet to show.

[Jham]

Regarding Arcia, I never thought I'd see fans taking Hicks over Arcia.  If we could be patient with Hicks, we should be patient with Arcia.  Yes he has power, yes he has hit for average.  He's shown the willingness to learn, hit the ball opposite field, and try to work on his discipline.  More than anything, he wants to win.  I saw him carry a team of losers on his back for a week last year before Plouffe whiffed on a bunt and Arcia sprained his ankle in the ensuing run down.  Assuming Hunter doesn't play for another 5 years, who else has his fire and leadership?  Sano has the charisma, but Arcia has the fire.

 

Re: Catching opportunities, the options are either too expensive or not much of an upgrade.  Suzuki is struggling, but he's having a career worst year.  He could rebound, or he might be gassed/too old.  I think I role Zuke as uncomfortable as that feels.  But we do have to get the pen some help.  Fien can't be healthy, Boyer is over worked.

[TheLeviathan]

TD posters do value Twins prospects higher and make trade suggestions based on that inflated value but don't kid yourselves that we are alone in this delusion.    Its not just the fans either.   Aside from a very few GM's most organizations have this bias as well which is why trades really don't happen all that often. 

 

Great point and look no further than those hilarious Houston offers leaked a few years ago to see it in action.

[jokin]

 

This is about more than this season, though. This is a major long-term need for the club. They will have potential internal answers in the bullpen and at SS down the line, maybe even later this year. Nothing at catcher. 

 

A post-August 1 waiver deal might be a possibility with a salary dump for a team that's out of the hunt or has another alternative, with prospects and/or a PTBNL in return.  AJ, Ruiz, Lucroy, Navarro. Wieters- some of whom have extended contracts and/or options.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

A few years?  Everybody is supposed to wait (a few years) for Arcia to develop into this slugger?  Let me list:

 

1. The fans (and the owner) were tired of losing (waiting for the "prospects" to develop) so they invested big money to win now.

2. Arcia isn't the only OF option, there are plenty more.  These guys are working hard (succeeding too!) seeking their opportunity to build a career and make the twins into a big winner.

3. Arcia has some serious flaws--he will never be sound at defense.  He will never be "a speed guy" to steal bases (remember Billy Hamilton in the CIN series?).  His splits versus LH pitchers (those LOOGYs) that seem to materialize from the 7th inning on?  Arcia would watch his Bavg cut in half.

4. Arcia has spent part of three seasons in MLB.  If he is to be provided with these years to develop, soon he will get very expensive (as well as out of "options").

 

Yet, Arcia is supposed to be awarded endless patience to develop--but everyone has to wait for him?  Sorry just NO.  Perhaps a change of scenery will help him immensely, perhaps not.  But the Twins can't and shouldn't provide Arcia with endless patience--they have other prospects for the OF (and DH).   Players who will either be much more rounded in their skills and thus versatile, or provide just as much power potential but have less MLB experience and can be still be developed in the minors.  Arcia is not a potential Griffey Jr. much more like a V. Cruz (now with Balt).  Let's face it some prospects never really live up to the hype.  The Twins can't lose site of other prospects  in the system to wait for Arcia.

 

Arcia holds minor league career splits of .312/.374/.553, which is good for a .927 OPS.  He did all of it while being significantly younger than the league average.  I get that he won't be a potential Griffey Jr. (let's face it, very few have that potential), but let's not pretend that there isn't some serious potential, especially in a league where a .750 OPS is above average.   I don't have a problem trading him for the right piece, but if his value is as low as people suggest, then I'd keep him here. 

[Tibs]

{edited to remove response to trolling - glunn}

I don't know what the Twins are going to do at catcher. Stuart Turner hasn't hit enough to be much more than a backup. Mitch Garver's stats look unimpressive, but he got off to an awful start. He may be our best internal bet right now. That would still be a couple year wait.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

How would dealing Milone, or other potentially mlb worthy talent (Santana or Arcia) play over with those teams?

Or do players like those not have much value any more as their ceiling is more well defined?

the Twins traded away a 4th outfielder they signed earlier in the year away from the A's to get Milone. Why would the Twins get more than a Sam Fuld type back in return for Milone? The Twins already have three Sam Fuld type catchers in Suzuki, Fryer, and Hermann. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Arcia holds minor league career splits of .312/.374/.553, which is good for a .927 OPS.  He did all of it while being significantly younger than the league average.  I get that he won't be a potential Griffey Jr. (let's face it, very few have that potential), but let's not pretend that there isn't some serious potential, especially in a league where a .750 OPS is above average.   I don't have a problem trading him for the right piece, but if his value is as low as people suggest, then I'd keep him here. 

Aria might have more value to another team who might actually play him in the big leagues. He'd be good in a RF/DH rotation or Rf platoon situation.

[Mike Sixel]

Patience? He is out of options after this year. .....I believe. You can't wait until he is 25.....he is either here, or gone next year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

 I saw him carry a team of losers on his back for a week last year before Plouffe whiffed on a bunt and Arcia sprained his ankle in the ensuing run down.  Assuming Hunter doesn't play for another 5 years, who else has his fire and leadership?  Sano has the charisma, but Arcia has the fire.

You said it. Arcia could be a catalyst if given a fair chance. 

 

Arcia can make a bad play in the outfield but you could use a defensive substitute for him in the late innings when necessary. We've also seen him make good plays. Also, he doesn't air mail balls to the infield any more often than Torii still does (at age 39).

[spinowner]

There was a post earlier that I wish everybody would ignore. One person has already responded to it but I hope nobody else does.

[nytwinsfan]

While I like the idea of Hicks or Plouffe as the basis for getting a Susac, I am not going to do that deal until the off season.  As long as we are in contention, you can't make that fundamental of a change to the lineup.  After the season, its my top priority.

Agreed. In any event, at this point I really don't think just Hicks would get that done, and the Giants don't need a third baseman anymore. Susac would probably take Hicks plus a decent pitching prospect like Gonsalves or something.

Edited July 21, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[nytwinsfan]

Alex Swim guys. I'm telling you. He could be a decent catcher. He's hit consistently well for Avg and Obp at every level, including the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. And he's thrown out 32% of stealers this year at FM, which I think is the same rate Turner threw out at FM. Obviously he's not a top 10 or top 20 prospect, but I think he has as much potential as Garver or Turner, maybe more. I'm still all about trading for a high quality young catcher, but those are costly. If we are just going to trade for another Suzuki, let's not even bother. I think one of the three of Turner, Garver, or Swim will end up being that.

Edited July 21, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[drjim]

 

Arcia's biggest issue is his frequent stints to the Disabled List, not a lack of talent. Even though he was "scuffling" early this season, he still had an OPS+ of 98 and then, naturally, he got injured and derailed his season.

 

He may turn into an oft-injured player whose value is diminished for it but I don't see him becoming a "bust". If the guy is healthy, he hits. It's that simple.

 

Is an OPS+ of 98 for a (ahem) limited defender at a corner even that good?

[drjim]

 

I would hope whatever trade possibilities come about, that Plouffe isn't traded for just a prospect.

 

Why is this even brought up and/or acknowledged?

 

The Twins are trying to win, they aren't going to trade good players for prospects. If (and it's a massive if) Plouffe is traded it will be to fill another hole, like C, SS or SP.

[KScott]

 

the Twins traded away a 4th outfielder they signed earlier in the year away from the A's to get Milone. Why would the Twins get more than a Sam Fuld type back in return for Milone? The Twins already have three Sam Fuld type catchers in Suzuki, Fryer, and Hermann. 

 

You are right Milone by himself will not get the job done. Here is more of the situation I am thinking of. Take the Brewers and trying get Lucroy for example:

 

Currently their rotation has a 4.41 era. 3 of the starters have ERAs well north of 4.0. They could use immediate help which Milone could provide. Their top pitching prospects (that haven't been called up) are still a few years out. Milone could be a stop gap with potential.

In their system 1B and 3B are major needs with no answers (similar to our catcher): to fill this we could send Vargas and/or Kepler plus one other prospect covered below. Or send Plouffe with a lesser prospect.

The third prospect could be dealt from our depth of starting pitching at the lower levels: think Stewart, Hu, or Gonsalves.

 

 

I think this trade is on the reasonable to light end, especially given what was mentioned in the article: the brewers not having an mlb ready prospect. I am probably suffering from overvaluing players in our organization as has oft been said earlier.

 

 

edit: State of Brewer's Organization: http://reviewingthebrew.com/2015/01/12/state-milwaukee-brewers-farm-system/
 

 Also, lets throw in Suzuki, Pinto, and Deunsing for good measure.

Edited July 21, 2015 by KScott

[DaveW]

These "bust" comments are going to look silly in a few years.

"Brian Buscher is gonna be a perennial all star, these bust comments are gonna look silly in a few years"- Nick

[glunn]

Moderator note -- I have taken care of the trolling.  Please never respond to trolling.

[DaveW]

Plouffe for sure is an offseason move. I'd consider Hicks for Norris now.

but then you suddenly have a huge issue in the OF, either you play Robinson who is garbage at the plate, or you play Arcia in LF with Hunter in RF and Rosario who is average at best in CF, recipe for disaster during a run for the playoffs IMO. If buxton was proven ready or something it would be a different story.

[glunn]

It seems to me that maybe a three team trade might work.  If TR can find a team that absolutely craves players who TR is willing to trade, then maybe that team will be willing to trade someone who the Padres, Giants or Brewers would take for a catcher.

 

 

[twinsnorth49]

I think if anything most teams over value prospects to the point of not moving them when they should. Teams looking to rebuild and shed payroll are always in the market for potential and hopefully pull off a heist like Tampa did to KC with Shields, which is only one example of many.

 

As far as the boards issue with believing so called marginal prospects could do better than existing players, I think that mainly comes from how marginal the existing players really are.

[TheLeviathan]

 

but then you suddenly have a huge issue in the OF, either you play Robinson who is garbage at the plate, or you play Arcia in LF with Hunter in RF and Rosario who is average at best in CF, recipe for disaster during a run for the playoffs IMO. If buxton was proven ready or something it would be a different story.

 

I think you take that chance with Buxton.  Look - the reality is, we're going to have to take a serious risk in order to fix the position.

 

Unless anyone is crazy enough to think we roll out the Brinks trucks to Wieters' house this offseason?  Anything other than that is going to require some risk.  I think Hicks for Norris is one of the least risky paths we could take.  (It allows us to keep Plouffe or use him for another purpose for instance)

 

All it requires is a leap of faith in Buxton.

Edited July 21, 2015 by TheLeviathan