Article: Brian Dozier's Next Accolade

[Ted Schwerzler]

What a week, and what a night. Brian Dozier sent walk-off blasts into the stands for the Twins. He had hopes of winning the Final Vote. He was beaten out by a Royal, and then, he was the only one that mattered. Following his eighth inning blast, the Twins' Dozier was the only second basemen in the All-Star Game to record a hit. As great as those events have all been, Dozier's next accolade will be in a different category altogether.As the second half kicks off, Dozier and the Twins have their eyes on another prize. In the thick of the AL Central race, and in position to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2010, both Minnesota and Dozier have plenty to play for. Team accomplishments aside though, Dozier has the opportunity to push himself into the center of the MVP discussion.

 

For periods of time throughout the season, it's been fair to question whether Dozier could keep it up, or if what we were seeing was real. Now with 88 games under his belt, the question becomes whether he can finish what he's started.

As it stands, Brian Dozier has accumulated a 3.3 fWAR mark, good enough for 19th in major league baseball. In the American League, he is behind just Mike Trout, Jason Kipnis, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Lorenzo Cain, J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera. To put it lightly, that's some pretty elite company.

 

Current production has Dozier on pace for career highs in both batting average and slugging percentage. He's also looking at projections of 47 doubles, five triples, 35 home runs, 91 RBI and 122 runs scored. Each of those totals would be a career for the Twins second basemen and it wouldn't be particularly close.

Now, being the MVP requires extraordinary numbers. Brian Dozier has done great things for the Twins this season, but how does he stack up to 2014 AL MVP Mike Trout's production? Trout had 39 doubles, nine triples, 36 home runs, 111 RBI, and scored 115 runs. To put it into context, Dozier is right in the ballpark.

 

Of course Dozier isn't the only AL player having a great 2015, and there's still the uphill battle of continuing to produce. As mentioned above, Dozier trails seven players in fWAR at the halfway point. Of those, it's fair to argue that five of them won't be on playoff teams (Indians, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Tigers). That gives the Twins and Dozier an opportunity on which to capitalize.

 

A year ago, Dozier got off to a blistering start as well; his .242/.340/.436 slash line with 18 HR and 45 doubles was respectable in and of itself. The biggest difference in the 2015 first half is Dozier's slugging nearly .100 points higher, and while still hitting home runs, he's driving the ball for doubles as well. The second-half slide Dozier went on last year may be related to the Home Run Derby, but regardless, it turned his season from elite to great.

 

Looking at some of his swing percentages, Dozier may actually be poised to continue his torrid pace. Sure, he's still pulling the ball a ton (a career high 62.4%) but he's also hitting line drives at a career best 24.6%. On top of that, Dozier's fly ball ratio, while up, has contributed to a career best 14.7% HR/FB ratio (meaning just over 14% of his fly balls are deposited into the seats). The number helping Dozier the most though is his hard hit ratio. At a career best 32.5%, the Twins second basemen is making great contact nearly one third of the time.

 

There's no doubt Dozier's MVP prospectus relies upon a perfect storm. First and foremost, he must continue the strong pace he has been on. That would appear doable as he has been steady rather than streaky all season. Second, the Twins absolutely need to make the playoffs (and overtaking the Royals would be a huge bonus). The MVP is an individual award, but should Dozier help bolster the lowly and unassuming Twins to the postseason, it would only boost his credentials. Finally, his feats would need to be recognized and acknowledged among those voting.

 

Should the first two scenarios play out, Dozier would likely be staring a Mike Trout sized showdown in the face. Trout is no doubt the best player in baseball, but is he the most valuable? Take him away from the Angels and they are still a playoff team. This season, Dozier has been the driving force behind the Twins, and may be the exact definition of MVP.

 

At the end of the day, er... season, the scenarios will no doubt play themselves out. For now though, halfway in, Brian Dozier has positioned himself in a great spot to capitalize on an opportunity. While you sit there and wonder why his average isn't higher, make sure to kick back and realize it doesn't matter and you're watching one of the best in the game.

 

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[Squirrel]

If the Twins are in it until the end, and if Dozier keeps on this pace, there is no way he isn't part of the MVP discussion. Well, no way he shouldn't be.

 

But when was the last time an MVP went to someone not on a playoff-bound team? For Dozier to be in the discussion, I think the Twins have to be there.

[REPETE]

Dozier is having a great year, no doubt.  Much of the Twins hopes lie with him, so if he goes south, there's a good chance the team isn't making the playoffs.

However, I have to disagree with the "Batting Average" comment within the premise of the article.  Trout (287) was the last MVP with a BA less than 300 since Don Baylor in '79 (296).  We can argue about the merits of the BA stat, but it does matter to the voters.   

If he continues at this pace, though, he will certainly be in the discussion.  More importantly, that means the Twins are probably talking playoffs! 

[stringer bell]

Rod Carew was MVP when he hit .388, even though the Twins finished fourth in the Division (IIRC). It seems the MVP has evolved a bit more towards players in the playoffs, but a good stat year on a bad team isn't going to get much notoriety. A great year like Carew's 1977 will win awards.

[gocgo]

If I remember right, Dozier's home runs dropped off last year in the 2nd half.  Pretty tough to maintain this pace.

[prouster]

"Trout is no doubt the best player in baseball, but is he the most valuable?"

 

Um, yes. Let's say teams value players at $6 million per WAR, which is a pretty conservative estimate. Trout has already put up 5.5 fWAR this year, which makes the first half of his season worth approximately $33 million. His salary this year? Slightly over $6 million. Simply put, he provides Aneheim with a ridiculous surplus they could get from absolutely no other player.

 

His salaries for the next five seasons are as follows:

 

2016: $16.083 million

2017: $20.083 million

2018: $34.083 million

2019: $34.083 million

2020: $34.085 million

 

Even though Trout will make an incredible amount of money through the end of his contract, he'll still be vastly underpaid, which is really weird to write. In terms of "most valuable," it's Trout, and nobody really comes close.

 

As far as Dozier goes, he's having a really great season. I think he'll (deservedly) get some MVP votes, but he's got some tough competition to actually bring the award home.

[RealTwinsFan357]

I would say Brian would be in the discussion, but I don't think he would get many votes. Maybe if the MVP was always given to the player with the highest war he would have a chance, but I just don't see him competing with Trout/Cabrera/Donaldson etc

 

Not directly related but I hope Goldschmidt wins the NL MVP this year, he might be my favorite non-Twin

[Ted Schwerzler]

Addressing a few comments all at once here.

 

First off, one of the premises laid out in the article is that Dozier must absolutely continue his pace as well as the Twins make the playoffs for this possibility to even exist. If they catch the Royals and win the division, things only get more real.

 

Yes, Dozier dropped off significantly in the power category a year ago. He also participated in the HR Derby. It has generally plagued hitters in the second half. That's not to say it was the reason, but regardless, we're operating with the understanding things continue.

 

As far as Trout is concerned and the quoted comment. Yes he is the best player in baseball (as mentioned), but he probably doesn't mean as much to his team as Dozier does. Trout elevates the Angels by being the most important player in baseball, but the Angels could win without him.

 

Regardless, the fact that an 8th round pick that spent time as a 24 year old in Low-A is being talked about as a potential MVP candidate is the point. Dozier needs 2.5 more months of things going right, but he's put himself in a great spot.

[T_J]

 

 

Yes, Dozier dropped off significantly in the power category a year ago. He also participated in the HR Derby. It has generally plagued hitters in the second half. That's not to say it was the reason, but regardless, we're operating with the understanding things continue.

 

 

I would love to actually see some stats that back up this statement. It seems to only be something that effects Twins players that participate. He only batted one round. 

 

Just saying that it might just be wear and tear rather than a few swings one night. 

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

I would love to actually see some stats that back up this statement. It seems to only be something that effects Twins players that participate. He only batted one round. 

 

Just saying that it might just be wear and tear rather than a few swings one night. 

 

Glad you asked, Ed Feng wrote it up a few days ago in the Detroit Free Press. http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2015/07/13/feng-is-the-home-run-derby-slump-real/30093989/

[RealTwinsFan357]

As far as Trout is concerned and the quoted comment. Yes he is the best player in baseball (as mentioned), but he probably doesn't mean as much to his team as Dozier does. Trout elevates the Angels by being the most important player in baseball, but the Angels could win without him.

I love the idea here but I ask (mainly out of curiosity) whether the MVP will go to the player who helps their team the most or just the best player. It has always seemed to me that it goes to the best player, but I could be wrong.

Edited July 17, 2015 by RealTwinsFan357

[T_J]

 

Glad you asked, Ed Feng wrote it up a few days ago in the Detroit Free Press. http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2015/07/13/feng-is-the-home-run-derby-slump-real/30093989/

 

Thanks for that link, but according the study from that link the conclusion is

 

CONCLUSION

Home Run Derby curse, fact or fiction? We have no choice but to conclude that it’s fiction. If we consider all the ways that the statistics should behave if there is no curse, we find that they consistently match that model. Certainly, some players will have a decline in power-hitting statistics from the first half of the season to the second after participating in the Derby, but it is clear from the analysis that this would have occurred for those players regardless of whether they chose to participate or not.

 

http://sabr.org/research/home-run-derby-curse-fact-or-fiction

 

That is the study that the article based off of.