Right handed groundball pitchers decline quickly when they drop in velocity as they age. Look at Masterson's performance as his velocity drops. Look at Halliday. The Twins don't know when Gibson will lose a few miles off his fastball, but if they are betting it will a few years beyond the age of 32 they will likely lose that bet.

While I agree with your general premise that groundball pitchers are a dangerous lot, Halladay was very good until his age 35 season. Masterson, not so much.

 

Who knows how long Webb would have been effective if not for the shoulder. He was incredible through his age 29 season and then got hurt.

I know someone posted we have him thru his age 32 season, but in actuality wont it be his age 31 season, as he is 27 all yr this yr and 4 more yrs makes 31........unless it is calculated thru the calendar yr, just an observation, doesnt really change the argument much.

What's the rush? If he puts up another season like this (presuming his 2nd half goes similar to the first), then there is plenty of time and savings to be had.

Paying a guy early and buying out his FA years makes sense if his value is going through the roof and his FA years are in peak years. 

 

He won't ever be a $20-25M pitcher at age 32-34 and more importantly, that it would be a terrible investment if he did.

 

The 18-25M contracts paid to pitchers on the other side of 30 have almost always gone really, really bad.  I am not sure we should be in a rush to lock any pitcher up during this portion of their career.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 17, 201511 yr by tobi0040