Article: The Future Is Upon Us

[Seth Stohs]

Raise your hand if you predicted the Twins would be nine games over .500 at the All- Star break and have the second best record in the American League. There have been many great stories in the first half. One of the more exciting stories is that the future is becoming the present with the Twins.

 

Through the four 90-plus loss seasons, one thing that Twins fans could cling on to was their minor league system. The last couple of years, the Twins have a consensus Top 3 farm system. It was great to know that there were some high-level prospects, but they were in the lower levels of the minor leagues.However, despite some injuries and other unfortunate circumstances in 2014, timelines got delayed. Instead of some of these players making their debuts last year, Twins fans had to wait until this season to see these guys in big league uniforms.

 

12 players under the age of 26 have spent time with the Minnesota Twins in the first half. While the season started with a very veteran ball club, over the course of the season’s first three months, the average age has dropped.

 

As you would expect with young players in their first couple of seasons in the big leagues, there have been ups and downs. 24-year-olds Kennys Vargas and Danny Santana began the season with the Twins and both struggled to the point where they were sent down. Santana is back, but Vargas was sent back to Rochester, and then to Chattanooga.

 

Looking back at our preseason Top 10 Twins Prospects rankings, it’s clear that the future is here and that over the rest of this season and next, the future is going to get an opportunity to do some special things.

 

Consensus top prospect Byron Buxton (21) missed a lot of time last year with a variety of injuries. He was streaky to start the 2015 season at Chattanooga, but in mid-June, it was time. He was called up to the Twins. He played terrific defense, and despite not hitting well, his terrific tools were on full display. His first major league hit was a stand-up triple. He showed great range and a strong arm in center field. His ‘hit’ tool is the one that’s going to require some patience. He sprained a thumb and is likely to miss several more weeks.

 

Just two weeks ago, the Twins needed some offense. They summoned Miguel Sano (22) from AA Chattanooga and he immediately started to hit. Whereas Buxton provides speed and defense that Sano will not, Sano’s bat has never really been a question. His first big league hit was an infield single. In 11 games, he has hit .378/.489/.649 (1.138) with four doubles and two homers. As impressive as his hits have been, his plate approach and discipline have also been terrific. It’s been a very impressive debut for the Dominican slugger.

 

Speaking of impressive debuts, the Twins surprised everybody in early May when they promoted #8 prospect Eddie Rosario (23) from Rochester even though he hadn’t put up very good numbers. On the very first pitch he saw in the big leagues, Rosario hit a long home run off of Scott Kazmir. He’s certainly had some ups and downs at the plate and though he hasn’t walked much, he does have a good idea at the plate. Defensively, he has been terrific in the corner outfield spots.

 

Our #9 Twins prospect, you may recall, Trevor May (25) was not supposed to be on the Opening Day roster. Three days before the season started, Ervin Santana was suspended and May was added to the Twins roster. He has been much improved this year, reducing his walk total while still getting strikeouts.

 

#7 prospect Jorge Polanco (22) came up for one day and made one start. He was recalled from AA Chattanooga. Shortly after returning to the Lookouts, he was promoted to AAA Rochester.

 

Alex Meyer (25) had a terrible start to his 2015 season in Rochester. The Twins Daily preseason #5 prospect was moved to the bullpen where he was good through nine outings and then called up to the Twins. He made two appearances that didn’t go well and has been sent back to Rochester to continue to work on his control and pitches coming out of the bullpen.

 

The Twins Rule 5 draft pick JR Graham has held his own throughout the first half. The 25-year-old has even thrived at times out of the Twins bullpen. Sometimes he’s worked mop-up duties. Other times, he’s worked three innings. He even made one spot start. He is blessed with a big fastball, so his future is encouraging.

 

Michael Tonkin’s frequent-flyer miles between Rochester and Minneapolis continued accumulating in the first half. He’s been solid in AAA but struggled with consistency with his slider and fastball command in the big leagues. However, he still remains someone to be optimistic about being a late-inning relief option.

 

Oswaldo Arcia seemingly has been around forever and yet he only turned 24 during the season. He fought injury with the Twins and after a DL stint was optioned to Rochester. Two weeks ago, he was hitting just .185 there but the last two weeks he has dominated the International League, showing the type of power that made him a high prospect all along. He will come back up at some point and hopefully can show a level of maturity and put up improved numbers.

 

After starting as the Twins starting center fielder the previous two years, Aaron Hicks began 2015 in AAA Rochester. Instead of complaining, he went down and hit .330 and played great defense. By the end of May, he was back up with the Twins. After a short DL stint and a rehab assignment in Rochester, he came back up and has been a different ballplayer. Again, he’s been around a while, but he is still just 24-years-old.

 

The type of improvement that Hicks has shown in recent weeks is what the Twins hope for from Arcia as well as eventually Kennys Vargas. Danny Santana finished the first half strong, but he’ll have to continue to show improvement with the bat.

 

There are the 12 Twins players under the age of 26 who have spent time in the big leagues in 2015. They’re all going to take their lumps (probably even Sano!), but those are great learning opportunities as they go forward.

 

As Ron Popeil would say, “Just wait, there’s more!”

 

And the minor league cupboard is not bare after all of these promotions. There are more prospects that we could see in the second half of the 2015 season.

• Through eight starts in Chattanooga and nine starts in Rochester, Tyler Duffey (24) is 5-6 but has an ERA of just 2.51 in 111 innings. His AA ERA was 2.56 while his AAA ERA this year is just 2.47. He’s been solid and consistent. He is a guy that could help the Twins bullpen down the stretch.
• Lefty Taylor Rogers (24) has been steady throughout his minor league career. At AAA this year, he is 7-6 with a 3.19 ERA. A quick look at his splits shows that lefties are hitting .185/.203/.194 (.397) against him and he has a walk to strikeout ratio of two to 37 against same-sided hitters. Ryan O’Rourke (27) got his first big league promotion right before the All Star break, but if needed Rogers could fill a bullpen role down the stretch too.
• Right-hander JO Berrios turned 21 in May. On Sunday, he started his second straight Futures Game for the World Team. He went 8-3 with a 3.08 ERA in 15 starts at Double-A before being promoted to AAA Rochester recently. He’s struggled in his two starts there so far, but he remains one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Could we see him in September?
• Max Kepler (22) was supposed to play in the Futures Game as well, but he has a sore shoulder and is currently on the DL. Hopefully it won’t be a long stint as he has been one of the hottest hitters in minor league baseball for two months. He is hitting .335/.410/.534 (.944) in 65 games for the Lookouts. Signed in 2009 (same year as Polanco and Sano), Sano is just coming into his own in 2015 and if healthy should be up in September after a Lookouts playoff run.
• At Chattanooga, Adam Brett Walker (23) is hitting .266/.321/.578 and leads minor league baseball with 24 home runs and 74 RBI. He’s got the strikeouts, but his power is elite. He’s a possible September call up.
• One more name to watch in the second half is Minnesota-native Brandon Peterson. The 23-year-old began the season by dominating the Florida State League. He just ended a streak of 26 scoreless innings this weekend. Overall, he has a 1.05 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and 12.1 K/9 in 43 innings this season. Maybe a long shot to get to the Twins this year, but certainly a name to know. While Nick Burdi, Jake Reed and Zack Jones have struggled in AA, they remain top bullpen prospects and will pitch in Minnesota sometime. Meanwhile Peterson continues to pitch great.

The future is now with the Twins. There are a lot of quality veterans on this 2015 Minnesota Twins team. Guys like Torii Hunter, Trevor Plouffe and all-stars Glen Perkins and Brian Dozier are all examples of players who struggled mightily in their adjustment to the big leagues and have thrived since. Not all prospects make that adjustment. They’re not all going to stick. But the Twins farm system is strong and deep.

 

It is going to be an interesting second half of the Twins. And for the fans!

 

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[Blackjack]

Great review Seth!!! Thanks!!!

[tobi0040]

Agreed, great review of the minor league system, the Twins this year and how the two stories have converged.

 

I looked at Rodgers numbers in his entire minor league career to expand on his lefty splits. He has been flat out dominant every year in the minors.  It really begs the question why Rodgers has not already received the call. Such an obvious need on this team.

 

2015 - .397 OPS in 128 PA.   37-2 K to BB.   29% K rate.
2014 - .555 OPS in 153 PA   40-8 K to BB.   26% K rate.
2013 -  .524 OPS in 140 PA.    42-4 K to BB.  30% K rate.
2012 -  .520 OPS in 50 PA.  18-0 K to BB.   36% K rate.

[Seth Stohs]

Because he's been good as a starter and they should want him to continue starting... He gets to strengthen his arm, work in all kinds of situations, use all his pitches and work on facing more lefties and righties.

[tobi0040]

 

Because he's been good as a starter and they should want him to continue starting... He gets to strengthen his arm, work in all kinds of situations, use all his pitches and work on facing more lefties and righties.

 

From a development perspective that is great.  But we are in the wild card position with a shot at winning the division.  And I don't think Rodgers is a long term starter, I don't think he breaks through as one of the five best starters in the next 1-2 years.  I think he is firmly behind Ervin, Hughes, Gibson, May, Berrios, Milone, and Meyer if he figures it out. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

From a development perspective that is great.  But we are in the wild card position with a shot at winning the division.  And I don't think Rodgers is a long term starter, I don't think he breaks through as one of the five best starters in the next 1-2 years.  I think he is firmly behind Ervin, Hughes, Gibson, May, Berrios, Milone, and Meyer if he figures it out. 

 

Gotchya... but i would say that Thompson's first 6 weeks earned him some leeway and opportunity. I think Duensing's earned some equity over a long time and has been good now for about a month. I think that O'Rourke getting an opportunity here is well deserved and earned. Thielbar was pretty good for a couple of years so he had an opportunity earlier in the year.

 

My gut feeling (And I have a big gut, so maybe it means something, maybe it doesn't) is that O'Rourke's going to get a few weeks to see what he can do, and if that doesn't go well, Rogers would get a shot.

[harren10]

Good stuff, Seth.

With all the talks about reinforcing the bullpen.. are any of these guys on the trading block?

[HitInAPinch]

To me, the playoff run is a great shot in the arm after 4 year of, well, you know.

But I'm not really expecting a playoff spot.  I'm more afraid of Terry Ryan becoming complacent again.

I firmly believe the Twins are finally in rebuild mode and should continue down that path this year and next.  Yes, there's been guys called up who have "failed".  It's part of the process.  There's been one guy who, so far, has made it look easy.  Like I've posted before, it's audition time.

 

I expect to see Berrios to get called to the pen end of July, early August.  I'm expecting to see some of the bullpen guys that went up and down earlier, back up again.  Maybe a debut of a rookie or 2 in the starting staff?

 

Arcia is definitely a call up soon.  I think he, Sano and Kennys Vargas are learning that Molitor REALLY doesn't like players showing off in BA and not working on their swing. 

 

Just my thoughts, I stand ready for the pummeling  :-)

[HitInAPinch]

One more thing:  This quote from Sano in the Pioneer Press:

 

Sano, who is hitting .394 with one homer for the Twins in his first 10 games, said it's easier to hit in the major leagues than at Class AA Chattanooga, where he hit .274 with 15 homers in 66 games.

"In Chattanooga, (pitchers) have no idea where they throw," he said.

 

I've heard comments similar to the before.  It's just been a really long time!

I REALLY like Sano!

[carlito_b]

Calling up duffey to work out of the pen in the second half probably makes the most sense considering he closed in college.. Also I understand that Adam walker strikes out a ton but I think its about time to get him on some prospect lists.. He's led his league in homers every year and he wins everywhere he goes.. I think the strike outs are worth dealing with if he's gonna have a slugging percentage this high.. Its reasonable to assume that even if his contact never gets any better he could still hit 25+ homers and drive in 80 in the big leagues his power tool is elite.. Its amazing how fast an organizations depth changes.. This time last year the twins were desperate for outfielders.. Now you have quite the log jam with arcia really not having a spot right now and that's before Buxton comes off the DL.. Kepler and walker are almost knocking on the door also.. Great problem to have tho.. One last thing I think hicks has figured things out his splits since coming off the DL are fantastic.. The future is definitely bright

[uberfan]

Oh my gosh, I love this article--and this team!!

[TNTwinsFan]

ABW II should be considered for promo to AAA. Elevated level of pitching and hit him either in front of or behind Arcia until one gets promoted. Probably ought to bring up Kepler to AAA, too (once he comes of DL). Harrison should be right behind them or start next year in AAA. Not sure who they have in the OF at AAA now, but, time to move these three up.

[roger]

It really has been a long wait, hasn't it Seth? 

 

But this is exciting!  Too many players for several positions, but that will work itself out over the next year or two as some get it done and others fail.  But 2017 looks to be when it should all come together for a great chance to win it all!!!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

One more thing:  This quote from Sano in the Pioneer Press:

 

Sano, who is hitting .394 with one homer for the Twins in his first 10 games, said it's easier to hit in the major leagues than at Class AA Chattanooga, where he hit .274 with 15 homers in 66 games.

"In Chattanooga, (pitchers) have no idea where they throw," he said.

 

I've heard comments similar to the before.  It's just been a really long time!

I REALLY like Sano!

Great comment. Sano is already demonstrating that he has a very discriminating batting eye, so that comment should scare opposing pitchers.

 

It doesn't feel like Sano is even a prospect anymore or should hit anywhere other than clean-up for any MLB team. You already know and expect he's going to contribute something in every game.

[tobi0040]

 

It doesn't feel like Sano is even a prospect anymore or should hit anywhere other than clean-up for any MLB team. You already know and expect he's going to contribute something in every game.

 

Yup.  Even though I have raved about his potential for four years, I am somehow shocked at how good he has been.

 

[ashbury]

"In Chattanooga, (pitchers) have no idea where they throw," he said.

If he hasn't had any pitches buzzing under his chin, he will now.

[Seth Stohs]

I was going to say... at some point, he'll slump in the big leagues and that will be what will show us the most about him. How he overcomes struggles.

 

 

[BoomBoom]

Nice article and perspectives

[jimbo92107]

Fantastic summary, Seth.

 

One topic that might be interesting is all the comeback stories in the minors, from demotions to TJ surgeries. Hell, just the TJ stuff could cover a huge write up.

 

Would you be interested in doing an article on "Comeback Kids" in the Twins system?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Because he's been good as a starter and they should want him to continue starting... He gets to strengthen his arm, work in all kinds of situations, use all his pitches and work on facing more lefties and righties.

 

To what end?

 

There are 8 pitchers ahead of him in the pecking order right now. He could be HERE, right now, helping. If he has to start more than 5 games the next 18 months, something else went really, really wrong.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

To what end?

 

There are 8 pitchers ahead of him in the pecking order right now. He could be HERE, right now, helping. If he has to start more than 5 games the next 18 months, something else went really, really wrong.

 

To the end of maybe fetching something in a trade, since O'Rourke was called up to be the LOOGY, and should be more than adequate in that role (14.5 k/9, and struck out 18 of the 27 lefties he faced this year, while only giving up 3 hits).  If O'Rourke can't cut it, let Rogers be the LOOGY, otherwise let him hold his value as a starter.

[drjim]

It really has been a long wait, hasn't it Seth?

 

But this is exciting! Too many players for several positions, but that will work itself out over the next year or two as some get it done and others fail. But 2017 looks to be when it should all come together for a great chance to win it all!!!

2017? Such a pessimist.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I agree with John...that Sano quote sounds like bulletin board material.

[birddog]

Sano's quote may sound like he's bragging, but it's actually a compliment to MLB pitchers. They are always around the plate so it's easier to dig in against them. In AA if a ball is coming at your head, you fear for your life; however, at the highest level it is more than likely going to tail away from you so you hang in there. I hope MLB pitchers look at it from that perspective rather than braggadocio. I love watching Sano hit. He's the real deal--disciplined yet ready and willing to hit any pitch. If he does strike out--and he will--he doesn't get cheated. If he's hitting in the last inning, I'm sticking around to watch.

[nicksaviking]

I agree that I don't think Sano's comments are demeaning to starters.  Of course unless only the first sentence is used, which of course is exactly what someone would do if they wanted to make it inflammatory.

 

But if Sano is being honest and wasn't fed that line by a coach or manager, that is fantastic.  Sano is hitting MLB pitching because he has a sharp understanding of how pitchers should pitch him and amatures who have no clue what they're doing are harder to read.  That sounds like a poker pro describing the unpredicable nature of amature players who don't know what they're doing and make life harder for those that do simply because they don't know how the game works.  If that is true, Sano should be extended based on that alone.

[ExpectMorePayLess]

Star Tribune article By howard sinker  JULY 14, 2015 — 8:56AM

Minnesota Twins at midseason: The present and future are one

The Twins are nine games over .500 at the All-Star Break and have a four-game lead in the race for a Wild Card berth. They just finished a run against three serious playoff contenders with eight victories in 11 games. On Sunday, the Twins took apart Detroit (for the third time in four games) with a lineup that included five players who spent time in the minor leagues this season.

Things are good. Unexpectedly good.

 

*Brian Dozier is showing that if more than half of your hits (54 percent right now) are for extra bases, it renders batting average (and even on-base percentage) pretty unimportant.

 

 

I agree with the article:

When 55% of your hits are of the Extra Base Hit variety - people usually stop thinking about your batting average and OBP.  "Because an out is an out and production is production - The game is about wins and scoring more than your opponent"  Why walk and steal second when I can jog into second or jog home most of the time?  Lol  That's why Dozier is a league leader in runs scored every year.  He puts himself in scoring position 54% of the time!

 

24 HR / 74 RBI / 52 Runs / 46 XBH (not all homers) / 83 games - The Future is Upon Us

Edited July 15, 2015 by ExpectMorePayLess

[Rosterman]

With the Twins probably finding 8-9 40-man roster spots next season, and probably fewer than that in 2017, who do the Twins have to protect next season and the season after that...i.e. what names do the Twins have to make moves on to keep or trade away, do you think?

[DocBauer]

ABW II should be considered for promo to AAA. Elevated level of pitching and hit him either in front of or behind Arcia until one gets promoted. Probably ought to bring up Kepler to AAA, too (once he comes of DL). Harrison should be right behind them or start next year in AAA. Not sure who they have in the OF at AAA now, but, time to move these three up.

I soooo want to agree with you on this.....I really, really want to. Kepler should be up, and soon, soon as he's feeling himself again. Thought he should have been a week or so ago. But try as I might, I just can't give a nod of the head for ABW II. He is one of my favorite Twins prospects, and I have very high, cross your fingers, type of hope for him. He is at his highest level of competition, and yet, despite a somewhat poor start, is actually having his very best season. That says something!

 

And even with high SO numbers that will probably continue at the ML level, there is presedence to indicate he can hit OK, have big power numbers and RBI totals, and be a big contributor with a somewhat all or nothing approach. (Though a few walks sprinkled in could pay off in a HUGE way!) But despite his impressive season, potential, and even ability (potentially-athletically) to play a decent OF, there is this gut feeling I have that he should stick it out at Chatanooga for the remainder of the year. My gut says he should continue his success and improvement, round off some rough edges, keep working, keep working on his defense as well, and take all this great production and improvement, even little improvements, and use it for a fresh start at Rochester next season.

 

I'm sure the Twins know a great deal more than I do, but again, it's a gut feeling.