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Article: Break Time: 10 Shocking On-Pace Numbers

Nick Nelson
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Nick Nelson GOAT

Nick Nelson

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The Minnesota Twins are heading into the All-Star break hot, with three straight victories against the Tigers putting them on pace to finish at 89 wins.

 

Here are 10 noteworthy on-pace projections for members of the team with a little over half the season in the books:1. Glen Perkins is on pace for 51 saves. Joe Nathan set the franchise record when he notched 47 back in 2009.

 

2. Brian Dozier is on pace for 35 home runs, 87 extra-base hits and 122 runs scored. All incredible numbers. Only three Twins have ever scored 120 or more runs in a season: Chuck Knoblauch (1996), Rod Carew ('77) and Zoilo Versalles ('65). Tony Oliva currently holds the franchise record for extra-base hits with 84, set in 1964. It's worth noting that Dozier had 18 homers at the break last year and finished with 23.

 

3. Phil Hughes is on pace to allow 245 hits and 40 home runs. Only Bert Blyleven and Brad Radke have given up 40 homers as Twins. That's not necessarily the worst sign, because both those guys were pretty good. And despite leading the league in both hits and homers allowed, Hughes has still been fairly effective (especially lately). That is, in no small part, because…

 

4. Phil Hughes is on pace to allow 20 walks. That would equate to 36 total over the span of two seasons. To say he is in control would be a putting it lightly.

 

5. Kyle Gibson is on pace to throw 207 innings. At 27, he would be the youngest Twins pitcher to eclipse 200 innings since Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn both did so in 2009.

 

6. Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey are on pace to induce a combined 76 ground ball double plays. They rank first and second in the majors with 22 and 20, respectively. Gibson has already matched his total from last year, which ranked him sixth in the AL.

 

7. Joe Mauer is on pace to make 658 plate appearances. It would set a career high, so the shift to first base is at least having its desired effect in terms of keeping him on the field. He's also on pace for 106 strikeouts, which would be the first triple-digit K season in his 12-year career.

 

8. Torii Hunter is on pace for 25 home runs. He hasn't hit 20 since 2011, and hasn't hit 25 since his last year with the Twins in 2007. It's been a heck of a first half for Hunter, who turns 40 next week.

 

9. Blaine Boyer is on pace to make 76 relief appearances. It'd be the most for a Twins pitcher since Matt Guerrier was called upon 79 times back in 2009. Boyer has been one of the most oft-used bullpen arms in the league, tying for the AL lead with 42. Prior to this season, he had appeared in 37 major-league games over the past four years.

 

10. The Twins are on pace to get caught stealing 55 times. They haven't been pinched that many times since 2002. Interesting, in that Paul Molitor is viewed as a base-running guru.

 

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Seth Stohs GOAT

Seth Stohs

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10. The Twins are on pace to get caught stealing 55 times. They haven't been pinched that many times since 2002. Interesting, in that Paul Molitor is viewed as a base-running guru.

 

Molitor is also viewed as a hitting guru, but he was a bad hitting coach. He was a great base runner and hasn't been a good base running coach. 

 

Thankfully, to this point, he appears to be a better manager than coach!

 

Dozier's on pace for some just silly numbers, and that is awesome!

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drock2190 First Round Pick

drock2190

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I'd hate to break the news but some things are going to go the other way here soon.

 

Perkins isn't going to save every game, Dozier has been something else but he will slump sometime, Hunter will fade a bit.

 

The good news is Hughes will probably perform better, base running will get a bit better. 

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JoshDungan1 Prep Ball

JoshDungan1

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I'd hate to break the news but some things are going to go the other way here soon.

 

Perkins isn't going to save every game, Dozier has been something else but he will slump sometime, Hunter will fade a bit.

 

The good news is Hughes will probably perform better, base running will get a bit better. 

A) Perks hasn't saved every game anyway.

B ) Hunter has already gone through a fade or two this year, but like most professional hitters, he's still getting it done.

C) Dozier ain't hitting for average much, but he's getting it done when the Twins need him.

D) I agree, Hughes will (hopefully) perform better and I would hope that our base running gets better cause we are losing runs on the bases.

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brvama Draft Eligible

brvama

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I'd hate to break the news but some things are going to go the other way here soon.

 

Perkins isn't going to save every game, Dozier has been something else but he will slump sometime, Hunter will fade a bit.

 

The good news is Hughes will probably perform better, base running will get a bit better.

 

I think the point of the article is to point out how surprising performances are so far, not as a prediction of the second half. Just a little bit of trivia. At the AS break, it's good to reflect and enjoy a good first half of baseball.

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stringer bell MVP

stringer bell

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Molitor is also viewed as a hitting guru, but he was a bad hitting coach. He was a great base runner and hasn't been a good base running coach. 

 

Thankfully, to this point, he appears to be a better manager than coach!

 

Dozier's on pace for some just silly numbers, and that is awesome!

Hate to quibble, but just because there are more caught stealings doesn't mean the team is running the bases poorly. Base stealing is only part of base running. Just because the results were poor doesn't necessarily mean the instruction was poor.

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d-mac First Round Pick

d-mac

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Gibson is really turning into a great pitcher. Check out his monthly xFIP and strikeout rate splits.

 

The Twins should just stop stealing bases. It's really hurting an offense that is OBP challenged. 

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Vanimal46 MVP

Vanimal46

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It's a huge red flag in my opinion that Boyer is on pace for 76 appearances this season... Especially as Nick pointed out he's had 37 appearances in the last 4 seasons combined! I suspect the number of appearances to drop significantly in the 2nd half, otherwise a guy like him will certainly burn out by the end of the season.  

 

It took a little bit longer than we wanted, but Gibson is the real deal. I have the most confidence in him out of all our starting pitchers this year.

 

I'm also fine with the aggressiveness on the base paths, even if it's resulting in more CS. I know there have been gripes on the game threads that base running has cost us additional runs scored, but what percentage does that actually happen?

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kellyvance College Ball

kellyvance

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base running depends on a lot of things, good jump, where in the count, what pitch is likely to be thrown, sliding....You have a better chance at stealing on a curve ball than a fastball. Molitor's coaching will show over the second half. He has instilled a "take it when you can" mindset. And I like the aggressiveness.

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Seth Stohs GOAT

Seth Stohs

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Hate to quibble, but just because there are more caught stealings doesn't mean the team is running the bases poorly. Base stealing is only part of base running. Just because the results were poor doesn't necessarily mean the instruction was poor.

 

Of course... But I'd also say that caught stealings haven't been the only base running issues this year (or in previous years).

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Dantes929 GCL Twins

Dantes929

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Please avoid using the names Kyle Gibson and Nick Blackburn in the same sentence. It's not appropriate.

Not really fair.  Blackburn did have two seasons that were pretty good and I do remember fans calling him the ace after a few good outings in a row.  He also pitched a really good game 163.     What is remarkable to me is that they always talked about his sinking fastball and on TV it always looked pretty straight to me which I attributed to the subtleties of angles.    However, the break on Gibson's pitches are certainly not subtle.    I remember the article talking about how lucky and unsustainable his results were given his low strikeout rate.    I responded that it was his strikeout rate that was Unlucky and unsustainable given how well he was throwing.    I honestly don't care about his strikeout rate.   It was easy to see how batters were able to square up Blackburn.   It is just as easy to see why Gibson gets a lot of groundballs and weak pop outs.

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Dantes929 GCL Twins

Dantes929

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The worst thing about all those positive numbers is the All Star break.   In the past 15 years it has sometimes seemed to be the break the team needed to regroup and start fresh and sometimes it has seemed to come at exactly the worst time.   This is the year of the latter.    Momentum is a finicky thing both on an individual and team level.   Mauer and Santana were just starting to heat up and Sano's start is unsustainable.  All these things are more likely to continue in the short term without the break IMO.

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