What makes Valera a better prospect?

 

Nothing.  He is not a better prospect.  He just is a better player right now than Gordon in the same team (which is what I said.)

Not sure if this has been posted before, but this is a recent scouting report that is pretty optimistic.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/6/26/8841633/twins-prospect-nick-gordon-scouting-report-and-projection

 

I think strength is a big issue right now. His walks and strikeout numbers seem to indicate at least a decent approach at the plate without any red flags. From the article above, the writer seems to think that Gordon could pack another 20 pounds or so of muscle onto his frame without sacrificing speed.

 

 

Everyone take a deep breath and say these following words: minor league baseball is for development not stats.

Now take another breath and repeat this: minor league batting stats do have predictive power. Bill James showed this long ago and later researchers have built on it.

 

Of course, this doesn't deny your larger point that Gordon should not be written off. Indeed I suspect a competent stats analysis will classify Gordon as having a very high ceiling. He's putting up the stats at age 19, as you said. That's what a critic would be overlooking, that the age differential is huge. He's got miles of room to grow as a player. Brett Doe, a catcher on the same team, is putting up better numbers. But he's 25 years old, playing single-A ball. He's surprised people, but does anyone suppose him to be a legitimate prospect?

 

I know we're on the same side of this question. I'm just suggesting there's a better way to express it. Unless Gordon decides to stop improving at age 22, he's got a chance to arrive in the majors as a productive player and then keep improving.

 

Now take another breath and repeat this: minor league batting stats do have predictive power. Bill James showed this long ago and later researchers have built on it. <eom>

 

Are you sure that James found that low-A stats were predictive? I only ever remember seeing the MLB-equivalent numbers for players in AA and AAA.

Valera's season offensive stats might be a little better than Gordon's, but in the 5 or 6 weeks that they've both been with the Kernels, Gordon has hit every bit as well as Valera has. Neither has shown much power, but Gordon has several more XBHs than Valera in the same time period. They've both hit a little over .300 with Gordon a few points higher than Valera. Both walk and K at similar rates.

 

Even if you want to say Valera has hit better in his much smaller sample size than Gordon's full year statlines, I'm not sure how anyone could say he's a better SS right now.

 

I've seen every home game but one since Valera got to CR and I can only distinctly remember two games he's played SS. I like his defense at 2B and it looks like he'll be the regular 3B now that White has been promoted, but Gordon has been very good defensively at SS. He'll boot one once in a while and he's not flashy. Don't look for weekly "Play of the Week" features on ESPN, but his range, instincts, footwork, glovework and arm at SS have been excellent. There's no doubt in my mind he'll be able to stick at SS.

Edited July 17, 201511 yr by SD Buhr