I'll readily admit to not having read any of this thread, but since I can't say his name without putting the word "balls" at the end, I'd say no. No trade.

If anyone's made an archer comment than this, I have missed it.

 

Of qualified AAA pitchers, there are only 26 pitchers 26 or under with a sub-4 ERA. 

About half of all AAA pitchers pitch in the PCL where ERAs are inflated, so I'm not sure this is the right place to draw the line when evaluating them.

I think the Cubs are at least optimistic about Rondon's 2.69 FIP, 4/1 k/BB ratio, and .203 BAA.

Not as much as you think. My buddy's a diehard Cubs fan they go with a 3 man revolving door at closer with Rondon, Motte, and Strop. No one of the 3 have won the job full time.

 

Good thing the Phillies could ask for something like...a catcher.  Or a shortstop.

 

Of course they can.  I was simply pointing out that 24 year-olds with sub 4 ERA's in AAA don't grow on trees, as you posited.  Therefore, if the Phillies want young, competent, near ML-ready starting pitching in return for Papelbon, they're almost certainly going to have to go throughus or the Tigers.

 

About half of all AAA pitchers pitch in the PCL where ERAs are inflated, so I'm not sure this is the right place to draw the line when evaluating them.

 

Ok, expand the ERA requirement to 5, you still only add 9 more pitchers, one of whom (Jon Gray) is certainly not getting traded, while only adding 4 more organizations.  In other words, a full third of the league does not have a starting pitcher in AAA who is younger than 26 while sporting a sub 4 (sub 5 for the PCL) ERA.  A far cry from "Every team in baseball has a pitcher in AAA of Rogers quality or better".

Ok, expand the ERA requirement to 5, you still only add 9 more pitchers, one of whom (Jon Gray) is certainly not getting traded, while only adding 4 more organizations. In other words, a full third of the league does not have a starting pitcher in AAA who is younger than 26 while sporting a sub 4 (sub 5 for the PCL) ERA. A far cry from "Every team in baseball has a pitcher in AAA of Rogers quality or better".

I am sorry I engaged you on this point. Every team has C grade prospects like Rogers. I don't really care whether they are AAA ERA qualifiers and I doubt the Phillies do either.

 

I notice you have yet to present a similar trade from past history too.

 

I am sorry I engaged you on this point. Every team has C grade prospects like Rogers. I don't really care whether they are AAA ERA qualifiers and I doubt the Phillies do either.

I notice you have yet to present a similar trade from past history too.

 

I'll admit, I don't know of one.  On the other hand, can you name a team that was one of the 3 worst teams in the league heading into a full-blown rebuild with a closer close to vesting a $13m option?  If not, maybe we can agree that the Papelbon situation is unique, and perhaps history won't completely dictate the outcome here.

 

The thing that's great about baseball, is that new history is always being made.  I don't think the Phillies are going to turn down a trade they want to do just because it's never been done before.

 

Also, way to deflect on the Rogers comp when data proved your unfounded opinion of his relative ability wrong.

 

If anyone's made an archer comment than this, I have missed it.

Page 3.

 

Shut up.

 

Also, way to deflect on the Rogers comp when data proved your unfounded opinion of his relative ability wrong.

 

I think you're confusing performance with ability.  Rogers isn't considered a high end prospect, he's generally seen as filler or future bullpen material - that is something most teams have in supply.

I'll admit, I don't know of one. On the other hand, can you name a team that was one of the 3 worst teams in the league heading into a full-blown rebuild with a closer close to vesting a $13m option? If not, maybe we can agree that the Papelbon situation is unique, and perhaps history won't completely dictate the outcome here.

 

The thing that's great about baseball, is that new history is always being made. I don't think the Phillies are going to turn down a trade they want to do just because it's never been done before.

 

Also, way to deflect on the Rogers comp when data proved your unfounded opinion of his relative ability wrong.

I said nothing about AAA ERA (and IP if you restrict it to ERA qualifiers), that was your chosen criteria. I think you make a claim about Jake Thompson (Soria trade) being out of baseball that you have yet to retract too.

 

Also, rebuilding teams don't necessarily sell their best assets for pennies on the dollar.

Page 3.

 

Shut up.

You are correct. My bad, sorry, I couldn't hear you over the sound of his deafening awesomeness.

 

http://cdn.akamai.steamstatic.com/steamcommunity/public/images/avatars/08/0817d241adbf64bf34c07dd62ed338b3f6c430b0_full.jpg

I think you're confusing performance with ability. Rogers isn't considered a high end prospect, he's generally seen as filler or future bullpen material - that is something most teams have in supply.

But at some point ability and performance become the same thing. Who cares if a player is the most able player to ever step on the diamond if he can't harness that ability and produce results? Put another way, if the Twins were playing a must win game tomorrow, and had to start either Rogers or Meyer, who would you choose?

 

The fact that Rogers is doing something only a handful of other players are doing suggests we need to either rethink what organizational filler is, or rethink what Rogers is.

I said nothing about AAA ERA (and IP if you restrict it to ERA qualifiers), that was your chosen criteria. I think you make a claim about Jake Thompson (Soria trade) being out of baseball that you have yet to retract too.

 

Also, rebuilding teams don't necessarily sell their best assets for pennies on the dollar.

You're right, so sorry I didn't retract a statement I made that was erroneous. Feel better?

 

Now, since you don't think ERA is a valid stat for measuring pitchers' performance, or age relative to the league for minor leaguers, what stat(s) are you using that tell you Rogers is no better than or worse than at least one pitcher in every organization?

 

And while rebuilding teams don't always sell assets for pennies on the dollar, sometimes they do, particularly if they believe the pennies are dimes or quarters instead. Or Oakland, who traded the best third baseman in the league for an injury prone MI headed to arbitration, and three minor leaguers.

The odd thing is, you dismiss Benoit for his 8.3 K/9 and FIP under 4, then say we can get any number of better pitchers with 10+ K/9 and lower FIPs just by dangling Rogers and his 6.3 K/9 and sub-4 ERA/FIP at AAA.

 

I'm out.

 

You are correct. My bad, sorry, I couldn't hear you over the sound of his deafening awesomeness.

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/625056711993225217

Edited July 26, 201511 yr by Willihammer

TF? Wheres teh tweet

 

Per Morosi, Twins talked to Padres

 

Need to pull the trigger on this deal, I wish they would have at the all star break but still plenty of time to salvage this pen.