Article: The Twins $55 Million Question

[Ted Schwerzler]

The calendar has already passed halfway through June and the 2015 major league baseball season is starting to take shape. Nearing the halfway point of the season, teams are starting to categorize themselves as contenders or pretenders.Right now, the Twins land somewhere in the middle, and while they are not necessarily buyers at the trade deadline, they can improve from within the organization. The biggest question though, is what they do with their $55 million man.

 

A season ago, the Twins 4.57 team ERA ranked 29th, or second to last, in all of major league baseball. Generally out of games before they started, Minnesota knew that their pitching needed to start giving their offense a chance. They made a splash, signing free agent Ervin Santana to the largest free agent contract in franchise history.

 

After spending a season with the Atlanta Braves in the National League, Santana was ready to return home to the American League. Having pitched in 2003 in the AL Central, the Twins were a relative comfort zone for the free agent. His career 4.48 ERA is indicative of a pitcher who can be a difference maker, but someone who still has some questions to answer. For the Twins though, he's a legitimate number two who should provide plenty of value.

 

Now coming to the end of a 50-game suspension due to performance-enhancing drug use, Santana is nearing the day that he can rejoin the fold. After the Twins jettisoned Jordan Schafer, the club has an open 40-man roster spot for their high dollar pitcher. However, how does the ninth best pitching team in the American League (3.84 team ERA) accommodate him?

 

It's probably safe to consider both Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson locks to stay in the rotation. Despite Hughes' struggles in 2015, he's still seen as the staff ace. Hughes' (4.79) ERA is inflated by his inability to control the long ball this season. After giving up just 16 home runs all of last season, he's allowed 15 through June 19.

Gibson has been one of the early season bright spots. Despite a tough outing his last time out, the Twins former first-rounder owns a 3.33 ERA and has been one of the American League's best pitchers in the early going. His strikeout and walk numbers virtually match his career lines, and despite his 4.41 FIP (fielding independent pitching), he should be counted on to keep his roll going.

 

Owning the middle ground is rookie Trevor May. A 4.26 ERA probably doesn't do justice to just how good May has looked at times. Despite a few tougher starts, he's looked every bit a top of the rotation type. His 7.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 are both great, and his 3.16 FIP suggests he should only continue to improve. The Twins should see him as a lock.

Arguably the toughest to dissect of the group is Mike Pelfrey. Going from a rotation snub, to the bullpen, and back into the rotation, Pelfrey has been the club's best pitcher this season. It's hard to include him as a lock because he seems to make us continually hold our breath; yet suggesting he's middle of the road with his current numbers is also not doing him justice. A 2.97 ERA is going to be tough to sustain while striking out right around four batters a game, but the Twins absolutely have to ride the wave until it crashes.

 

That leaves recently reinstated starter Tommy Milone. Of the group, Milone is probably the least likely to have success in the bullpen. A soft-tossing lefty, Milone absolutely dominated Triple-A after being sent down earlier this year. In his three starts since rejoining the big league club, Milone owns a 2.37 ERA and has allowed opposing hitters just a .236 batting average against him.

 

In short, the question becomes, where does Ervin Santana fit?

There's absolutely no doubt that the Twins need to find a place for him in their rotation. It's also a great to need to ask this question, rather than be able to point to three different pitchers that don't belong.

 

Santana is making the first of what will be three starts for Triple-A Rochester on Saturday. Over the course of the next week and a half, Minnesota will be evaluating their staff as a whole, and trying to answer the big question.

 

While I don't envy the decision-makers in this situation, the reality is that as a whole, the Twins staff still is a bit more quantity than quality. Santana should boost the quality aspect, and the Twins will know they have depth when they need it. I'd look at inserting Santana in the place of Milone, knowing that if and when Pelfrey blows up, you have an option you can immediately turn to.

 

Regardless of what happens, this is a position the Twins have not found themselves in for at least the past four seasons. Quality pitching had become a thing of the past, but this club, under Paul Molitor and Neil Allen, it turning over a welcomed new leaf.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

 

Click here to view the article

[diehardtwinsfan]

I thought this would be a Joe Mauer thread

 

I think Milone has to move.  Huges might get a dead arm DL stint temporarily, but beyond that, someone goes to the pen or is traded. 

[benji21]

Why is a 4.56 team ERA dreadful and Santana's 4.48 indicative of a difference maker? This is not to be sarcastic, but I'm truly interested.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why is a 4.56 team ERA dreadful and Santana's 4.48 indicative of a difference maker? This is not to be sarcastic, but I'm truly interested.

Some of it is league context. Santana compiled that over some more offensive seasons than 2014. Also the overall team ERA is usually lowered by the bullpen ERA.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

This was a good article, but it left out the issue of Ricky Nolasco. The Twins will actually have 7 starters for 5 spots. Performance-wise Nolasco has been the poorest, but the Twins have been reluctant in giving up his spot.

[nytwinsfan]

As much as he deserves to be in the rotation, it has to be Milone. No way can it be May or Pelfrey right now.

[HitInAPinch]

I don't think the final decision will be all that tough.  This is just a bunch of silly hand-wringing over, at best, middle of the road pitchers.  I start with "Buy low/sell high". 

 

If you want something that get somewhat of a decent return, you trade Pelfrey.  Yes, you're taking a chance that Pelfrey could really be what we're seeing now.  So what?  That's the nature of the beast.  Gibson also falls into this category. 

 

Soft-tossing lefties have something of a successful track record in the fastball-dominate NL.  Trade Milone.  Gibson also, to a lessor extent, falls into this category.

 

Hughes and May.  I warned about the possible fall of Hughes:  in season by season stats, Hughes would have one good year [with career high number of innings pitched] only to fall miserably the next year.  2015 = The next year.  How could anyone think 16 BB's for the entire season would be sustainable?  Every team knows that Hughes WILL put the ball over the plate, the biggest reason I was against the extension.  May has been doing well, but very much an 'up and down' guy.  I have to reason not to trade either, if trading Hughes s even possible.  

 

It still comes down to one thing:  What do other teams think of them??

[OldTimeTwinkie]

Ride Milone and Pelfrey and let May bolster our bullpen as eighth inning setup guy.

[jorgenswest]

The best decision might be a Santana in the pen.

 

Milone? He his outperforming Santana's projections for this year. He has outperformed Santana since his first full season in 2012. If he has outperformed Santana his last 500 innings, isn't it possible he will in the next half season? He is also 4 years younger.

 

Gibson or May? Both young pitchers critical to the Twins future. Do they want to replace them with a pitcher that was league average though his prime and highly likely to be below in his decline?

 

Pelfrey? He is performing too well.

 

Hughes? He really fits the Gibson/May group. He is in his prime and critical to the future.

 

When they sign a decline phase veteran to a long term contract they have to understand that there will be a point before the contract expires where that pitcher will no longer be among the best 5 options. The best decision might be to use Santana in the pen until injury or a string of poor performances gives him an opportunity.

[Captain Hindsight]

 

Why is a 4.56 team ERA dreadful and Santana's 4.48 indicative of a difference maker? This is not to be sarcastic, but I'm truly interested.

 

For what its worth, his career ERA is 4.17 not 4.48. Even then, it is extremely misleading to look at his career numbers as 4 out of the last 5 years he has had a sub-4 ERA. 

[jimbo92107]

I have no objection to a 6-man rotation. After the third day of rest, each starter could be available for long relief, so you're not really losing a reliever out of it. A guy like Milone could do that easily, and so could May, and Pelfrey was preparing for that role before Santana's suspension. If a guy does do a stint in long relief, you just push his next start back a few days.

 

On a team that shuffles guys around like the Twins, a 6-man flexible rotation should be no big deal.

[hybridbear]

I like the idea of trading someone, whoever has the highest current value. I also like the idea of a 6-man rotation. Perhaps you trade someone and have a 6-man rotation once Nolasco comes back.

[troyhobbs]

Sell high on pelfrey if he'll bring in anything worth while

[DocBauer]

I'm not opposed to a 6 man rotation, and I can see Arguements for it. But I just don't think it's necessary. This isn't about player development.

 

Hughes's season is down, no doubt, but it doesn't suck. Let's be honest. And like last year, he seems to be turning it around and cutting loose. He's just doing so later than last year, unfortunately. Gibson has the potential to be a stud, and is starting to look like it. He lost to the Cubs today, and absolutely stunk up the place. He stunk up the place allowing 6 hits in 5 IP with 2 ER and 3 BB and 6 SO. Wait....what? That's what we call a bad performance these days? Answer: YES. May has as good of stuff and control as Gibson, but is probably a little more SO and fly ball and a little less grounder prone. Pelfrey has a guardian Angel on his shoulder who is either...not to sound morbid...a: granting Pelfrey a final wish, or b: granting him a new lease on life where he he begins to fulfill his potential after gaining experience, perspective, the right atmosphere and coaching after leaving NY and gaining health.

 

Take your choice, which is more believable? A top pick SP is mediocre in his ML career before going under the knife. Once he comes back, he comes back way too early admitted by himself and everyone else involved, in a different city and league and atmosphere...pretty much sucks except for a few flashes, and then finds a half season of actual success in the new place before the sky comes falling down...OR...all of the above....except the sky doesn't fall in, and what he really needed was health and a change of help and scenery.

 

You tell me, 'cause I don't know. But you ride his ride for now and hold on for dear life. You DO NOT offer him an extension. You DO offer him a QO, unless someone comes calling with a nice trade offer. You do so in case this isn't smoke and mirrors, because you can afford the shot, and because you get a draft pick if he walks.

 

It's not fair to Milone, but he's the odd man out. I don't know, maybe the soft tossing Milone is a LH version/weaker version of...I don't know...fill in the blank. And maybe he is just vastly under appreciated. And maybe all the scouts from the Twins, A's, Nationals and other organizations just don't get it, and if allowed to pitch every 5th day for a year, he would absolutely surprise everyone.

 

But right now, all of us seem to see the same thing, guts and guile. That's commendable and solid and can be productive. But not viable consistently or enduringly. I don't think his stuff plays in the pen, and he might be better off staying stretched out in AAA until needed or traded, but right now, I don't know that we have ANYONE from the port side for the bullpen that is remotely reliable. So for now, I'd say to the pen with him.

 

Nolasco....if he was making $5-7M I'd say throw him in the pen when healthy. But he's not, and I don't know that it's reasonable at his price, and experience, to make such a move. Push has to come to shove, and the rock simply has to impact the hard place. In other words, Ryan has to do something he doesn't want to. He has to move a SP regardless of cost or market. It's just a bitter reality that seems almost impossible since we are talking about the Twins here.

 

Nolasco has to go, probably to a NL team, needing some rotation help, probably with a throw in, a reliever like Pressly or Tonkin say, and anywhere from 1/2 to 2/3 of the next 2 years salary picked up. How good of a return prospect/talent the Twins get back depends on how much salary they pick up, and how good of a toss-in they include. It doesn't mean Nolasco sucks, or was a mistake, it just means it didn't work out, timing and fate didn't match up, and now we need to find the best way to move on.

[Lefty]

Why do we have to trade anybody?  Someone will go down the second we do, then what?  Why should we give away anybody that is producing?  We won't get a thing for any of them, and we should know this from past experience.  We have waited a long time to have a decent rotation and now we're going to give it away because we actually have enough pitching.  Make one or two of these guys go to the bullpen so we can purge the system of some of the garbage in there.  Hold on to talent while it's here!  Can't Milone replace Duensing?  Nolasco should go there as well.  

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Move Pelfrey to the bullpen. He is not signed for next year, he should be the odd man out. They need to really get more and more data on Milone, and they should give May every chance to succeed.

 

OTOH, if they think they can win this year, then I don't know the answer.......but it isn't a 6 man rotation. They already have too many pitchers on the roster.

[jorgenswest]

They need to wait and see if Santana improves in his next two starts. His first wasn't good but it can be explained by being rusty. He needs to dominate before they give him one of the 5 spots. If not let him dominate in the pen through the all star break. He needs to show he is a better option than the current 5 before earning a spot.

[troyhobbs]

 

Why do we have to trade anybody?  Someone will go down the second we do, then what?  Why should we give away anybody that is producing?  We won't get a thing for any of them, and we should know this from past experience.  We have waited a long time to have a decent rotation and now we're going to give it away because we actually have enough pitching.  Make one or two of these guys go to the bullpen so we can purge the system of some of the garbage in there.  Hold on to talent while it's here!  Can't Milone replace Duensing?  Nolasco should go there as well.  

Maybe this rotation is good enough to sneak into the playoffs but very doubtfully good enough to advance beyond that. No one should be given away but with Pelfrey not being signed beyond this season they'll get nothing for him anyway by letting him walk at the end of the year. Unless they want to buy high on him in the off-season, which is more risk than I'd want to assume given his entire history.

[DaveW]

I mentioned in a couple other threads: I would trade Gibson, he is the one who can actually bring you some solid value back in return like C or SS help. Gibson+Arcia+A couple prospects  for Tulo?

[DaveW]

 

 

Maybe this rotation is good enough to sneak into the playoffs but very doubtfully good enough to advance beyond that. No one should be given away but with Pelfrey not being signed beyond this season they'll get nothing for him anyway by letting him walk at the end of the year. Unless they want to buy high on him in the off-season, which is more risk than I'd want to assume given his entire history.

The playoffs are a crapshoot, if you are good enough to make the playoffs, you are good enough to win a couple best of 5 and 7 game series.

[tobi0040]

My analysis.

 

Ervin is in the rotation when he is back.  No way his $50M is in the pen or minors.

 

Hughes is in the rotation because he is picking it up and under contract.

 

Ricky is in the rotation if healthy.  See above.

 

Gibson and May have as much upside as any of them and would be under control through age 30 or 31.  The Twins want to keep these guys.

 

Between Pelfrey and Milone, guessing one is traded and one to the pen.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I mentioned in a couple other threads: I would trade Gibson, he is the one who can actually bring you some solid value back in return like C or SS help. Gibson+Arcia+A couple prospects  for Tulo?

I think the prospect names would have to be more notable than the other two names you mention.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Between Pelfrey and Milone, guessing one is traded and one to the pen.

I agree.  Milone has been stashed as a 6th starter in AAA for much of the past year, across two different organizations, he's had a few good starts for us, but I don't see why his role would have suddenly changed now.  (Although I'd love to see him toss another couple gems to make things interesting. )

 

I think Nolasco could be held out longer too, and eased back into pitching (read: bullpen duty) if Pelfrey and company are still healthy and effective.

[tobi0040]

 

I think the prospect names would have to be more notable than the other two names you mention.

 

I would be curious what Tulo's value would be though. I have a feeling this is one where is name recognition for fans exceeds the value teams would place on him (given his age, health, and contract). I agree wholeheartedly the package would be more than Gibson, Arcia, and prospects though.

 

He is almost 31 and owed 5 and $100M and has not played a full season since 2011. He has to be pretty close to sliding over to 3b as well.  

Edited June 22, 2015 by tobi0040

[jorgenswest]

Is it certain that Santana and Nolasco will perform better than the 5 pitchers currently in the rotation? Their projections do not suggest it is clear. Milone has performed better than either of the other two since 2012 and is 28. Perhaps those 500+ innings don't represent his true skill level, but that is a pretty big sample to ignore.

 

Milone 98 ERA+

Santana 95 ERA+

Nolasco 87 ERA+

 

The Twins were foolish to give Santana a long term contract when he couldn't find one the previous two off seasons. They were foolish to jump into the market early with both Santana and Nolasco instead of letting the market dictate their value. Will they be foolish to pitch them when they aren't one of the best 5 options? That is going to happen sometime in the next few years as they decline. Maybe we are already there.

 

[tobi0040]

 

Is it certain that Santana and Nolasco will perform better than the 5 pitchers currently in the rotation? Their projections do not suggest it is clear. Milone has performed better than either of the other two since 2012 and is 28. Perhaps those 500+ innings don't represent his true skill level, but that is a pretty big sample to ignore.

 

Milone 98 ERA+

Santana 95 ERA+

Nolasco 87 ERA+

 

The Twins were foolish to give Santana a long term contract when he couldn't find one the previous two off seasons. They were foolish to jump into the market early with both Santana and Nolasco instead of letting the market dictate their value. Will they be foolish to pitch them when they aren't one of the best 5 options? That is going to happen sometime in the next few years as they decline. Maybe we are already there.

 

It is not as easy as who will outperform who.   Nolasco has negative trade value.  Nobody wants to go near him and that contract. 

 

Ervin may have some value if the Twins pick up a fair amount of salary and we are not going to sign a guy for $55M, watch him sit half a season and then pay him $7-8M a year for the next 4.5 years to pitch somewhere else.  He has the track record of a pretty good pitcher.

 

 

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Trades won't occur until the trade deadline approaches. IF the Twins are in a buying mood, I'd package two starters (Pelfrey, Milone and/or Gibson) for an ace. If we sell, sell Pelf for prospects. At any rate, make room for Berrios & company in 2016.

Edited June 22, 2015 by Don't Feed the Greed Guy

[jorgenswest]

 

It is not as easy as who will outperform who.   Nolasco has negative trade value.  Nobody wants to go near him and that contract. 

 

Ervin may have some value if the Twins pick up a fair amount of salary and we are not going to sign a guy for $55M, watch him sit half a season and then pay him $7-8M a year for the next 4.5 years to pitch somewhere else.  He has the track record of a pretty good pitcher.

It needs to be that easy. They need to give themselves the best chance to win. Neither Santana or Nolasco will have any trade value. They didn't have trade value the moment the Twins gave them the contract. They compounded it with their performance and actions since signing those contracts.

 

The Twins need to start the best 5. Santana may be one of the best 5 but he needs to show it and earn that spot.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is it certain that Santana and Nolasco will perform better than the 5 pitchers currently in the rotation? Their projections do not suggest it is clear. Milone has performed better than either of the other two since 2012 and is 28. Perhaps those 500+ innings don't represent his true skill level, but that is a pretty big sample to ignore.

 

Milone 98 ERA+

Santana 95 ERA+

Nolasco 87 ERA+

 

The Twins were foolish to give Santana a long term contract when he couldn't find one the previous two off seasons. They were foolish to jump into the market early with both Santana and Nolasco instead of letting the market dictate their value. Will they be foolish to pitch them when they aren't one of the best 5 options? That is going to happen sometime in the next few years as they decline. Maybe we are already there.

 

As we have seen here over and over, contract status matters.*

 

*I doubt that's just here, btw.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would be curious what Tulo's value would be though. I have a feeling this is one where is name recognition for fans exceeds the value teams would place on him (given his age, health, and contract). I agree wholeheartedly the package would be more than Gibson, Arcia, and prospects though.

 

He is almost 31 and owed 5 and $100M and has not played a full season since 2011. He has to be pretty close to sliding over to 3b as well.  

5/100 isn't that bad.  In fact, given his age, present health, and performance, it's probably a selling point.  If Tulo was a FA today, he would blow that number away.

 

Not that I advocate a blockbuster trade for him, but he's still pretty good.