Article: Brian Dozier Is Entering Elite Territory

[Ted Schwerzler]

Earlier this season, the Minnesota Twins signed second basemen Brian Dozier to a four-year, $20 million extension. In doing so, the Twins locked down their star second basemen into the foreseeable future, and bought out some of his arbitration years in the process.Now, over a third of the way into the 2015 season, the contract that seemed to some to be a slam dunk has turned out to be exactly that in the early going. Despite Dozier being a fan favorite, and one of the Twins' best players, there was some initial criticism of the Twins decision. While the contract did buy out arbitration years, the Twins failed to eat away at any free agency time Dozier would have. In doing the deal this way, Minnesota was locked into a $5 million average annual value until 2018, but Dozier would then be able to be immediately eligible for free agency.

 

Minnesota was seemingly banking on Dozier being a highly productive player over the course of the next four seasons, while hoping that the loyalty paid early on might offer them a hometown discount when and if that was needed in the long term. So far, both sides are putting their best foot forward.

 

Obviously it's still extremely early in the life of the contract, but Dozier has broken out even bigger in 2015 than in 2014. After looking the part of an All-Star in 2014, the Twins second basemen owns a .265/.346/.538 slash line this season, all career highs. He leads the team in HR (13), runs scored (51), on base percentage (.346), slugging (.538), on base plus slugging (.883), hits (63), doubles (20 which also leads the American League), triples (3), and walks (27).

 

It's easy to suggest that Dozier is off to a good start, but to put it into further context, where he may be going is all the more impressive. As Twins Daily's Nick Nelson notes, Dozier is on pace for 53 doubles, 34 HR, 133 runs scored. Those are marks no major league baseball second basemen has topped since 2011. Through just 61 games in 2015, Dozier has been worth 2.6 fWAR and is on pace for a 6.4 fWAR (previous career high is 4.8 in 2014).

 

Heading into the season, one of the biggest worries for Dozier was his tendency to pull the ball. Tony Blengino looked at Dozier's pull tendencies for Fangraphs and suggested he may be about to quickly decline from the ceiling he had reached. So far, the Twins second basemen has stuck with the same process, and the results have followed suit.

 

In 2015, Dozier has pulled a career high 62.6% of the balls he has put in play. However, Dozier has also recorded a 30.5% hard hit percentage, which is also a career high. While Dozier is hitting just 14.4% of his balls in play to the opposite field (a career low), he's supplemented it by hitting a career high 26.3% of balls in play as line drives.

 

On top of being great across the board in 2015, Dozier has actually silenced critics in regards to one of his most common knocks. Discredited for having an often low average (which matters very little), Dozier has actually struck out a career high 19.9% this season while batting .021 points above his career mark of .244

 

At this point, it's apparent Brian Dozier has been nothing short of spectacular at the plate for the Twins. He's been the power hitter they didn't know they had, and he's gotten it done in multiple facets of the offensive side.. On the defensive side of things, Dozier isn't too shabby either.

 

Errors haven't been an issue for Dozier since moving from shortstop to second base following the 2012 season. This season, he has just one in 61 games, putting him on pace for about 2.5 on the season (would be a career low). He currently has been worth one DRS (defensive run saved) while being on pace for a career best 1.9 UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating runs above average per 150 games). Looking at what Dozier has been compared to the rest of the major league second basemen, he ranks behind only Jason Kipnis (3.7 fWAR) and Dee Gordon (2.8 fWAR). He is out-slugging both players by at least .034 points and leads all second basemen in home runs (next closest is Dustin Pedroia with 9).

 

Taking a top down view and assessing everything as a whole, Fangraphs puts Brian Dozier's current value in dollars at $21.2 million, or roughly $1 million more than the entirety of his four year contract. Whether you adhere to advanced analytics or not, the eye test has corroborated the numbers this season, Brian Dozier is very good. At this point, it looks like the Twins got a steal, and if this continues for even half of the contract, both parties are in a place to benefit greatly from one another.

 

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[jimmer]

I never criticized the extension. I thought it was a very good idea at the time and that the Twins actually got a bargain.  

[hybridbear]

I hope that Dozier's approach is one that it isn't easy for opposing pitchers to game plan against. I hope that Molitor will soon move him down a few slots in the lineup so that he can drive in more runs.

[70charger]

 

Taking a top down view and assessing everything as a whole, Fangraphs puts Brian Dozier's current value in dollars at $21.2 million, or roughly $1 million more than the entirety of his four year contract. 

 

The math has to be different here, because these values assume free agency. Dozier's contract was only over the cost-controlled part of his career with the Twins anyway.

 

That's probably secondary to your point, though, which I wholeheartedly agree with. Dozier is entering elite territory this year. Let's hope he keeps it up for at least the next four.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Why not drop Dozier down to third in the lineup and bump Mauer (or Buxton) to the leadoff spot. All those solo and leadoff homeruns are annoying when runs are at a premium.

[Twodogs]

Dozier is doing great, but elite status??  I mean he is hitting like .265, Mauer the guy everyone talks about is washed up and done is hitting about 5 points lower is all.  I mean could you imagine if Mauer upped his average to .275 and people started talking about him approaching elite status?

 

I think he is All-Star Caliber.  I think he could potentially continue to improve over the next 3 - 4 years and even be better, but I don't think he is elite as of yet.  He has nice pop, he plays solid defense, and he is one of the best sticks on the Twins right now, but that doesn't equate to elite in my books. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

Dozier is doing great, but elite status??  I mean he is hitting like .265, Mauer the guy everyone talks about is washed up and done is hitting about 5 points lower is all.  I mean could you imagine if Mauer upped his average to .275 and people started talking about him approaching elite status?

 

I think he is All-Star Caliber.  I think he could potentially continue to improve over the next 3 - 4 years and even be better, but I don't think he is elite as of yet.  He has nice pop, he plays solid defense, and he is one of the best sticks on the Twins right now, but that doesn't equate to elite in my books. 

 

Learn to love OBP and SLG, and have a look at league average values. Brian Dozier, if he plays like he has so far all season, would then be considered a superstar.

[DaveW]

The way he is hitting this year he looks a lot like Robinson Cano (sans this year). I too would drop him to 3rd in the order in the near future. Put Buxton and Mauer batting 1-2 in front of him and let him knock those guys in.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Yeah, but is he as good as Omar Infante? I mean, I think the All Star Game starter has got to be the best in the league, right?

 

KC fans are the worst!

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, but is he as good as Omar Infante? I mean, I think the All Star Game starter has got to be the best in the league, right?

 

KC fans are the worst!

KC Fans have endured many, many years of futility, I am all for letting them enjoy the moment.

Edited June 17, 2015 by jimmer

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

Dozier is doing great, but elite status??  I mean he is hitting like .265, Mauer the guy everyone talks about is washed up and done is hitting about 5 points lower is all.  I mean could you imagine if Mauer upped his average to .275 and people started talking about him approaching elite status?

 

I think he is All-Star Caliber.  I think he could potentially continue to improve over the next 3 - 4 years and even be better, but I don't think he is elite as of yet.  He has nice pop, he plays solid defense, and he is one of the best sticks on the Twins right now, but that doesn't equate to elite in my books. 

 

This is assuming that average is the sole purpose of the discussion, when in fact, it's probably the least important considering the collective whole.

[Twodogs]

Yeah, I get that the batting average isn't everything, and I said that he is great and probably should be an All-Star.  But how many "ELITE" players do we talk about in real life that hit .265, as a career high nonetheless.  I mean Elite players in my mind are guys like Tony Gwynn, Kirby Puckett, Rod Carew, George Brett, Barry Bonds, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, etc........  If any of those guys hit .265 you'd say they are having below average years or some would come on here and say "They're done!" Just like we hear about Mauer and stuff like that.  Is he one of the best Twins players, yes, is he one of the better 2nd basemen in baseball right now, yes. To me however, that doesn't make him Elite.  Just because he is one of the better at his position doesn't mean much to me when considering what is and what isn't elite. Elite to me means that he is going to get to Superstar status, such as Kirby was.  Even when the Twins were crummy, everyone who followed baseball across the country knew who Kirby was and even many people who could care less about baseball knew who Kirby was and it wasn't because he hit .265 

 

Again, Dozier is doing really well and he seems to continue to improve so maybe one day he will in my opinion become Elite, but I don't think he is there yet.  He is however, near and dear to Twins fans, including myself, and they will always see things through rose colored glasses just a little bit when considering one of their best players.  But go to some random stadium anywhere in the U.S and ask some random fans who they think are the top 5 "Elite" players in the game and I'd bet dollars to donuts that not many of them will name Brian Dozier, that is unless you were sitting in left at Target Field. 

 

Again don't get me wrong, as a Twins fan I hope he hits 20 - 25 homeruns and continues to lead the league in scoring runs and continues to play solid D.  I hope he helps to continue to lead the Twins to one of their first seasons above .500 in a long time.  I just don't think he is considered ELITE yet.

[DaveW]

 

Yeah, I get that the batting average isn't everything, and I said that he is great and probably should be an All-Star.  But how many "ELITE" players do we talk about in real life that hit .265, as a career high nonetheless.  I mean Elite players in my mind are guys like Tony Gwynn, Kirby Puckett, Rod Carew, George Brett, Barry Bonds, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, etc........  If any of those guys hit .265 you'd say they are having below average years or some would come on here and say "They're done!" Just like we hear about Mauer and stuff like that.  Is he one of the best Twins players, yes, is he one of the better 2nd basemen in baseball right now, yes. To me however, that doesn't make him Elite.  Just because he is one of the better at his position doesn't mean much to me when considering what is and what isn't elite. Elite to me means that he is going to get to Superstar status, such as Kirby was.  Even when the Twins were crummy, everyone who followed baseball across the country knew who Kirby was and even many people who could care less about baseball knew who Kirby was and it wasn't because he hit .265 

 

Again, Dozier is doing really well and he seems to continue to improve so maybe one day he will in my opinion become Elite, but I don't think he is there yet.  He is however, near and dear to Twins fans, including myself, and they will always see things through rose colored glasses just a little bit when considering one of their best players.  But go to some random stadium anywhere in the U.S and ask some random fans who they think are the top 5 "Elite" players in the game and I'd bet dollars to donuts that not many of them will name Brian Dozier, that is unless you were sitting in left at Target Field. 

 

Again don't get me wrong, as a Twins fan I hope he hits 20 - 25 homeruns and continues to lead the league in scoring runs and continues to play solid D.  I hope he helps to continue to lead the Twins to one of their first seasons above .500 in a long time.  I just don't think he is considered ELITE yet.

None of those guys listed are middle INF.

 

If you compare him to other "elite" 2nd baseman I think you will find the average isn't a huge concern.

Examples:
Ernie Banks was a career .274 hitter

Joe Morgan was a career .271 hitter

Ryan Sandberg was a career .285 hitter

 

And these are all "best of the best" hall of fame top 10 all time type guys.

 

Over the past 365 days Dozier is in the top 2 or 3 for OPS, HR, R and several other categories for 2B, when you are in the top 2 or 3 in the whole league that makes you elite IMO.

[USAFChief]

I don't know if Dozier is "elite," but as for batting average, Harmon Killebrew's career BA was .256.

[DaveW]

2B ranks since the start of 2014:

 

fWAR:

1. Dozier  7.4

2. Kinsler 6.6

 

Slugging

1. Dozier .451

2. Walker .431

 

6th in OBP

 

HR

1. Dozier 36

2. Walker 27

 

wRC+

1. Dozier 125

(tied). Altuive 125

 

R:

1. Dozier 164

2. Kinsler 138

 

BSR

1. Dee Gordon 12.9

2. Brian Dozier 11.0 (The gap between Gordon and Dozier in this area is HUGGGGGE though)

 

Is Dozier elite? Absolutely.

Is Dozier the most underrated player in the league? Probably.

Is Dozier the best hitting 2B in the league? Most likely.

Is Dozier the best all around 2B in the league? Most likely.

 

Edited June 17, 2015 by SpiritofVodkaDave

[nicksaviking]

 

Yeah, I get that the batting average isn't everything, and I said that he is great and probably should be an All-Star.  But how many "ELITE" players do we talk about in real life that hit .265, as a career high nonetheless.  I mean Elite players in my mind are guys like Tony Gwynn, Kirby Puckett, Rod Carew, George Brett, Barry Bonds, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, etc........

 

 who they think are the top 5 "Elite" players in the game and I'd bet dollars to donuts that not many of them will name Brian Dozier, that is unless you were sitting in left at Target Field. 

 

Your definition of elite seems to be pretty tight.  6 HOFers and a 1B who's first 4 seasons have put him on track to get there?  Only five MLB players are currently elite?  I think you're narrowing your criteria to support your batting average arguement.

 

Dozier is 3rd out of all 2B in WAR, 2nd in the AL and 2nd in OPS.  This while he has a sub-par BABIP of .289 while all of the other guys competing for the title of "Best Secondbaseman" have much less sustainable BABIP of .330+. 

 

There is easily a case to be made that Brian Dozier is the best secondbaseman in baseball right now. In my book that's elite.

[Twodogs]

 

Your definition of elite seems to be pretty tight.  6 HOFers and a 1B who's first 4 seasons have put him on track to get there?  Only five MLB players are currently elite?  I think you're narrowing your criteria to support your batting average arguement.

 

Dozier is 3rd out of all 2B in WAR, 2nd in the AL and 2nd in OPS.  This while he has a sub-par BABIP of .289 while all of the other guys competing for the title of "Best Secondbaseman" have much less sustainable BABIP of .330+. 

 

There is easily a case to be made that Brian Dozier is the best secondbaseman in baseball right now. In my book that's elite.

Well it just depends on your opinion of Elite?  Derek Norris is ranked 4th in all of baseball in WAR, he has the most at bats of any catcher in all of baseball and has a .250 career batting average which by the way is 5 points higher than Dozier's career batting average.  Does this guy fit into the Elite category? I mean when I consider Elite players, I think of the guys that people will remember, will anyone remember who Derek Norris is, say like 15 years from now?

[jimmer]

To me the question is fairly simple.  If you were told you to pick the 3 best 2Bs in the game, would one of them be Dozier?  If so, he's likely elite when taking into account position.  Really it's a matter of opinion. The numbers suggest he very much is an elite 2B at this point.

Edited June 17, 2015 by jimmer

[DaveW]

 

 I mean when I consider Elite players, I think of the guys that people will remember, will anyone remember who Derek Norris is, say like 15 years from now?

Comparing Derek Norris to Dozier is pretty silly. Dozier is the leader amongst all 2b in several categories over the last season and a half.  Norris though a solid player no doubt is 6th in WAR and much lower in every other none defensive category.

[Twodogs]

 

None of those guys listed are middle INF.

 

If you compare him to other "elite" 2nd baseman I think you will find the average isn't a huge concern.

Examples:
Ernie Banks was a career .274 hitter

Joe Morgan was a career .271 hitter

Ryan Sandberg was a career .285 hitter

 

And these are all "best of the best" hall of fame top 10 all time type guys.

 

Over the past 365 days Dozier is in the top 2 or 3 for OPS, HR, R and several other categories for 2B, when you are in the top 2 or 3 in the whole league that makes you elite IMO.

If you are comparing Brian Dozier to Ernie Banks then last year he would have hit .295 with 44 homeruns and 117 RBI's  And the fact of the matter is that Dozier had 707 plate appearances last year and Banks only had 646 PA's in his 2nd real year of baseball.  Do you really think Dozier will end up with 512 Hr's and 1600 RBI's??  Dang, I sure hope so.

 

But again the article was really about whether or not the contract was a good one or not, and I think it was a great signing.  But Dozier is no Ernie Banks, yet at least.

[clutterheart]

Calling Dozier "elite" is homeristic-hyperbole at its finest.

 

He is not even the best 2015 second baseman in the AL central. He is a fine player having a great season and everyone should be happy about it.

 

So why ruin it trying to elevate him into something he is not? 

[Twodogs]

 

Comparing Derek Norris to Dozier is pretty silly. Dozier is the leader amongst all 2b in several categories over the last season and a half.  Norris though a solid player no doubt is 6th in WAR and much lower in every other none defensive category.

No its actually pretty comparable, because it is position specific.  Position wise Dozier is a leader, so is Norris. This year he is 4th in WAR at a 2.1, 6th OPS, 6th OBP, 8th BA which by the way is at .265, 1st in doubles, 8th in Homeruns, and 3rd in RBI's and 2nd in runs scored.  But Norris is probably relatively unknown by the average person out there.  But he is really good, (right now), at his postion.  So when you compare Dozier to the real Elite players such as Cabrera or Goldschmidt then everyone says but as a second baseman he is elite, then my arguement with Norris will hold water, but if you say Norris is a good player at his postion, but not elite, then that is what I am trying to say about Dozier.  

Edited June 17, 2015 by Twodogs

[nicksaviking]

 

Well it just depends on your opinion of Elite?  Derek Norris is ranked 4th in all of baseball in WAR, he has the most at bats of any catcher in all of baseball and has a .250 career batting average which by the way is 5 points higher than Dozier's career batting average.  Does this guy fit into the Elite category? I mean when I consider Elite players, I think of the guys that people will remember, will anyone remember who Derek Norris is, say like 15 years from now?

 

Derick Norris is ranked 4th overall for catchers.  That places him at 48th of all players in baseball.  Dozier menawhile is 14th overall.

[DaveW]

 

No its actually pretty comparable, because it is position specific.  Position wise Dozier is a leader, so is Norris.  4th WAR at a 2.1, 6th OPS, 6th OBP, 8th BA which by the way is at .265, 1st in doubles, 8th in Homeruns, and 3rd in RBI's and 2nd in runs scored.  But Norris is probably relatively unknown by the average person out there.  But he is really good, (right now), at his postion.  So when you compare Dozier to the real Elite players such as Cabrera or Goldschmidt then everyone says but as a second baseman he is elite, then my arguement with Norris will hold water, but if you say Norris is a good player at his postion, but not elite, then that is what I am trying to say about Dozier.  

 

Dozier is 1st in WAR, 1st in OPS, 1st in HR, 1st in WRC+, 1st in Runs, 1st in doubles.

 

That is a large difference IMO from 4th, 6th, 6th, 8th, 8th, 3rd. A valid comparsion for Norris to  a 2nd baseman would be someone like Kendrick or Zobrist, both good players no doubt, but not elite.

 

A valid comparison to Dozier in re: to a catcher with similar "standings" in those categories would be Buster Posey (1st in WAR, 3rd in HR, 1st in RBI, 1st in WRC, 1st in Slugging etc) who is elite IMO.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 17, 2015 by SpiritofVodkaDave

[Twodogs]

Dozier isn't even1st in WAR in the American League Central??

[nicksaviking]

 

Calling Dozier "elite" is homeristic-hyperbole at its finest.

 

He is not even the best 2015 second baseman in the AL central. He is a fine player having a great season and everyone should be happy about it.

 

So why ruin it trying to elevate him into something he is not? 

 

I would have agreed last year.

 

Coming from a guy who is as suspicious of the direction of this team as anyone:  When considering his age, consistancy, and overall production in all statistical areas, if I had to pick one 2B in all of MLB to ride with over the next four years, it would be Brian Dozier.

[nicksaviking]

 

Dozier isn't even1st in WAR in the American League Central??

 

Right, that would be Jason Kipnis and his .373 BABIP who currently sits 3rd overall in WAR.  Seems kind of unfair to demand Dozier be top 2 in the league in WAR.

Edited June 17, 2015 by nicksaviking

[Twodogs]

2nd basemen who all ended the year 3rd in WAR for the season.  Omar Vizquel is probably an All-Star due to his ability to be this consistent for so many years.  I hope Dozier gets into that category but I don't think he is there yet.

 

Brian Roberts 3rd in WAR in 2008

Mark Ellis  3rd in WAR in 2007

Brandon Inge  3rd WAR in 2006

Rafael Furcal  3rd in WAR in 2005

Omar Vizquel 3rd in WAR in 2004

Rafael Furcal 3rd in WAR in 2003

David Eckstein 3rd in WAR in 2002

 

How many of these guys are Elite "now" in your minds?

[DaveW]

 

Dozier isn't even1st in WAR in the American League Central??

He is 1st in baseball since the start of 2014.

[Twodogs]

 

Right, that would be Jason Kipnis and his .373 BABIP who currently sits 3rd overall in WAR.  Seems kind of unfair to demand Dozier be top 2 in the league in WAR.

I was responding to the guy above me who said he was 1st in WAR.  I wasn't at all trying to diminish what Dozier has accomplished.