Article: Correa Just Opened The Door For Buxton

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have spent the last week or so jostling for position atop the AL Central. Having cooled off a bit after their torrid run in May, the offense has been somewhat to blame. Now, having brought power-hitting designated hitter Kennys Vargas back into the fold, it appears there may be a targeted approach for run support. To help further, the Twins could look at the blueprint laid out by fellow AL surprise team, the Houston Astros, and allow top prospect Byron Buxton to follow in Carlos Correa's footsteps.Houston made the move to call up top prospect Correa over the weekend. He was the lone player drafted ahead of Buxton, and has also experienced a ton of success at the minor league level. Starting at Double-A Corpus Christi this season, Correa slashed .385/.459/.726 with seven home runs and 32 runs batted in. He added 15 stolen bases and legged out 15 doubles as well. By all accounts, Correa dominated the Texas League.

 

The Astros sent Correa to Triple-A Fresno for 24 games following his hot start. While his average dipped (.276) he still got on base at a high clip (.345) and slugged .449. It was after just 24 games in the Pacific Coast League that Houston believed they had seen enough. In bringing up Correa, the Astros signaled a desire to maximize their current winning ways, and to continue along that path well into the summer.

 

Now the Twins have the opportunity to follow suit. With the Cubs having promoted Kris Bryant a few weeks ago, and Correa getting the call, Byron Buxton remains the last of the elite tier of prospects expected to reach the major leagues this season.

 

Much like Correa, Buxton suffered a lost season in 2014. Correa played in 62 games before suffering a season-ending injury. In 2014, Buxton was only able to play in 31 games after dealing with a wrist injury and then a concussion. Now 54 games into his 2015 season, there's no doubt that the countdown to his arrival is on.

 

Unlike Correa, Buxton hasn't lit his minor league on fire. After starting incredibly cold, he has evened out and is now batting .267/.327/.475. Outside of the traditional batting line however, his speed has played tremendously, evidenced by his league-leading 11 triples and 19 stolen bases. Things are also continuously trending up for Buxton, who has batted .318/.376/.541 since May 16.

 

There's no doubt the Twins could use a boost at the top of their lineup and Buxton profiles as an ideal leadoff hitter. Despite what Brian Dozier has done for Minnesota this season, it still makes sense to get a couple of guys on ahead of his power bat. Followed in the lineup by players like Torii Hunter and Joe Mauer, Buxton hitting ahead of that group would no doubt be a positive.

 

On top of the added offensive boost, the Twins could transform their outfield into a positive situation less than halfway through the season. Instead of Oswaldo Arcia and Torii Hunter flanking center, Minnesota could go Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Aaron Hicks from left to right. Hunter would factor in at the DH spot and could spell Hicks in certain situations. No matter the configuration, Buxton possesses Gold Glove ability in the outfield with speed that would make Target Field look small.

 

At this point, it's hard to imagine that we aren't past the Super 2 deadline for prospects, and whether or not the Twins are taking that into consideration really shouldn't matter. I'm not ready to suggest that Buxton will be in Minnesota by the end of the month, but Correa's promotion should be seen as more of a blueprint for the Twins to follow than anything.

 

While believing we would see the star centerfielder sometime in August a few weeks ago, there's no doubt the timeline has changed to sometime in July at the latest. Minnesota is on a great run, and sustaining it will be done from within. Getting your best asset to the big leagues sooner rather than later is a great place to start.

 

Click here to view the article

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not sure I agree.  Correa has been much better than Buxton for one.  I think Buck is up soon, but I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a stop in AAA first. 

[KGB]

The door has always been open for Buxton, he just needs to keep hitting and walk through it.

[clutterheart]

You do a poor job explaining just why you think the timeline has moved up.  

 

I am all for getting Buxton up as soon as possible but Correa has been really good while Buxton has only shown flashes.  He has not yet earned a promotion to the MLB team.  

 

Furthermore if Buxtion gets called up, Hicks at a corner OF position would be a big problem.  He is not hitting well enough to justify that move.  

[HitInAPinch]

I'm going to agree with the others:  In the minors, Correa and Bryant were significantly better than Buxton.

Looking Buxton's game-by-game stats, he's profiling like a .265 hitter at AA.  We'll see how it plays out the rest of the season. But that season looks like it'll be played out in Chattanooga.

[tobi0040]

Not sure I agree.  Correa has been much better than Buxton for one.  I think Buck is up soon, but I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a stop in AAA first. 

 

I think it is closer than you think.  In all the minors, their offensive numbers are pretty similar.

 

Correa  .313/.392/.491/.883, 84 2B, 14 3B, 28 HR in 282 games.

 

Buxton   .293/.377/.483/.860  39 2B, 35 3B, 27 HR in 260 games.

 

This year Correa has been better,   1.007 OPS vs. .809.   Since 4/25 when Buxton has shaken off the rust he has been .292/.351/.526/.877.  The other thing is Buxton is a plus CF and much better on the bases.

Edited June 10, 2015 by tobi0040

[REPETE]

If/when they do call up Buxton, the worst thing they could do may be to put him in the leadoff spot.  TK always preached put guys in a position to succeed.  We did the same thing with another AA player by promoting him, batting him leadoff, and watching him flounder, resulting in a revolving door to the minors..  

If/when Buxton comes up, he should start batting 8-9th, until he proves he can hit ML pitching.  If he crushes that, start moving him up in the order, eventually to leadoff.  So while I'm anxiously awaiting his arrival, I'm not sure he fits "need" right now.  

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

 

This year Correa has been better,   1.007 OPS vs. .809.   Since 4/25 when Buxton has shaken off the rust he has been .292/.351/.526/.877.  The other thing is Buxton is a plus CF and much better on the bases.

 

Appreciate the article. We here a TD tend to be pretentious and snarky, so thanks for sharing your thoughts. 

 

tobi, I lov Bux and hope to see him soon. But, this year is really all that matters. Correa had the same rust excuse as Buxton, but performed from the get go. He has answered the call. That does not mean that Buxton will not be as good or better, but he certainly hasn't been thus far. Correa has also played excellent defense at SS and been a terror on the base paths himself. Buxton might be better on the base baths, but Correa is really good in that regard. 

 

I think they are both going to be great, but Buxton is clearly behind Correa in most regards with that bat, and Correa is pretty dang good with the glove and wheels. It will be fun to watch how these two turn out. Correa is just succeeding faster. Kind of like Trout and Harper being tied to each other, but Harper didn't live up to the expectations that Trout was setting at first; now look at Harper. 

 

The good news, is that we don't need to feel rushed to add Buxton, right now at least. The one thing that he would for certain add to the MLB team is speed and defense in CF, which we are currently excelling at with Hicks. Yes, sliding Hicks over and adding Buxton would be even better, but I think we wait at least another month, unless there is an injury or Hicks or Rosario fall off completely. I think Buxton could use a promotion to AAA first and to have his focus be on his approach. The lack of guys in the organization with a good k/bb ratio scares me. We need Buxton to be a hight OBP guy with his speed.

 

 

 

[theJemmer]

My only problem with your article is the phrase "there is no doubt" on the timeline for call up.  Man, it would be great to give the team (really, the fans) a shot in the arm to have him up here earlier rather than later, but TR has his own timeline and I doubt he'll be swayed by either the big club's record or the fan's voice.

[DarrenVahtra]

The premise that something the Astros did affects what the twins do with the top prospect in the game is completely ludicrous. The twins will bring up Buxton whenever they feel he's ready plain and simple. I personally am of a mind that should be sooner rather than later because he'd be the best fielder on the team, and why not let him learn how to hit at the majors.

[Dantes929]

 

If/when they do call up Buxton, the worst thing they could do may be to put him in the leadoff spot.  TK always preached put guys in a position to succeed.  We did the same thing with another AA player by promoting him, batting him leadoff, and watching him flounder, resulting in a revolving door to the minors..  

If/when Buxton comes up, he should start batting 8-9th, until he proves he can hit ML pitching.  If he crushes that, start moving him up in the order, eventually to leadoff.  So while I'm anxiously awaiting his arrival, I'm not sure he fits "need" right now.  

Speaking of TK, he batted Knoblach 2nd right off the bat his rookie year.   Puckett also led off when promoted.    I could probably list dozens if not hundreds across the majors who thrived when put at the top of the order immediately.    Hicks failed but that doesn't mean Buxton would.    I don't even believe Hicks failed because he was mishandled.    Sometimes it is just up to the player.   Sometimes it is just a matter of being in the right place at the right time.    I remember Valencia tearing up the league his first season but also thought that getting a few infield and seeing eye hits early was probably the difference in getting him to relax.    I think it is possible Buxton would do just fine but am more in favor of giving Polanco an extended look.

[Mike Sixel]

Only Terry Ryan can open that door.

[Seth Stohs]

Terry Ryan is smart enough not to let Bryant or Correa being in the big leagues affect Buxton's timeline. They shouldn't be at all related, other than the draft stuff. 

 

Correa getting called up means nothing for Buxton and his timeline.

 

That said, I think Buxton's timeline to the big leagues is less than a month. Just a guess, of course, but I think my earlier prediction of July 17 is looking too far out.

[Seth Stohs]

It is interesting to know that - from various things I've heard from various people - if the Astros would have taken Buxton, the Twins LOVED Correa and would have been thrilled to get him too. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The premise that something the Astros did affects what the twins do with the top prospect in the game is completely ludicrous.

 

 

Terry Ryan is smart enough not to let Bryant or Correa being in the big leagues affect Buxton's timeline. They shouldn't be at all related, other than the draft stuff. 

 

Correa getting called up means nothing for Buxton and his timeline.

 

I don't think that's really what the author is suggesting here.  Just that Correa was probably the most similar prospect to Buxton in terms of age/level/rank, and his promotion likely means that Buxton won't be far behind.  It's just a matter of time, and that time might be short.

 

By Baseball America, 4 of their top 6 prospects have already made their MLB debuts in 2015, the only holdouts being Buxton and Seager (who has spent most the year in AAA).  Of their top 12 position player prospects, only Buxton, Sano, and 2013 draftee JP Crawford have yet to even play in AAA.

[tobi0040]

 

Terry Ryan is smart enough not to let Bryant or Correa being in the big leagues affect Buxton's timeline. They shouldn't be at all related, other than the draft stuff. 

 

Correa getting called up means nothing for Buxton and his timeline.

 

That said, I think Buxton's timeline to the big leagues is less than a month. Just a guess, of course, but I think my earlier prediction of July 17 is looking too far out.

 

I tend to agree with your timeline.  I think Buxton is up quicker than most on this site think. His .800 plus OPS in AA suggests to me he is cruising through. His OPS is in the .850 range after the first ten or so games.   So I don't think he has much left to learn in the minors.

 

Not only that, he is an upgrade over our current CF offensively, defensively, and on the bases and can help this team.

 

I also think that it will be hard for anyone to say we have delayed prospects or promoted them too slow.  Vargas, Arcia, May, Rosario, Gibson, Hicks, Santana, Polanco, and likely Buxton soon.  I think the 2011-2014 prospect issue was simply that.  The prospects weren't very good.

 

 

Edited June 10, 2015 by tobi0040

[COtwin]

Excited to see him up, but he doesn't really fill a void right now.  The Twins problems are Suzuki, Mauer, Plouffe,and Hunter.  In that Order.  Suzuki has a .489 OPS in his last 15 and that is inflated by the 5 hits in two games last week.   That coupled with him being used in an important spot in the lineup until recently and you have the worst hitting catcher in ALL of Baseball with more than 140 AB.  Outside of a couple timely hits, Mauer has been absolutely useless, and more actually a detriment with his weakly hit groundball double plays.  Plouffe is in a slump, but I think he will recover.   Hunter is probably playing more like we expected of late.  

 

Point is, Buck does't fix any of these problems.  He is really replacing what Hicks provides, and Hicks is the least of the Twins problems.

[Mike Sixel]

Hicks is terrible with the bat, of course Buxton should be better than that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Point is, Buck does't fix any of these problems.  He is really replacing what Hicks provides, and Hicks is the least of the Twins problems.

I don't know if Hicks is the "least" -- he's basically tied for last among our current regulars in OPS with Suzuki, Escobar, and Vargas.  He is providing some defense and base running value, but all's not well with his bat quite yet.

 

And Buxton could simply push Hicks to a corner, and Hunter to DH, and Vargas out of the lineup (or more time at 1B if he gets going and Mauer does not).  And hopefully prevents a reoccurrence of "Escobar, starting LF/DH".

[jokin]

E

Point is, Buck does't fix any of these problems.  He is really replacing what Hicks provides, and Hicks is the least of the Twins problems.

Buxton comes up... the Twins go from "good" to elite in CF. And he solves the problem of the hole in the lineup at leadoff. Big difference.

[COtwin]

Buxton comes up... the Twins go from "good" to elite in CF. And he solves the problem of the hole in the lineup at leadoff. Big difference.

IF. Button moves into the lead off spot it changes things, but I don't see that happening right away. I think they put him in the at 8/9. That will limit whatever impact we are projecting him to have. And I think we are at least very good in CF already. Don't get me wrong i am pumped for Buxtons arrival. I just think the black holes that are Mauer and Suzuki are MUCH larger problems than our solid defending and improving at the plate CF. every time I see someone reference that Hicks doesn't hit well enough to play a corner OF spot, I think that Mauer doesn't hit anywhere near well enough to be taking 1B on a rebuilding club. And Mauers salary is much more prohibitive.

[drjim]

 

Excited to see him up, but he doesn't really fill a void right now.  The Twins problems are Suzuki, Mauer, Plouffe,and Hunter.  In that Order.  Suzuki has a .489 OPS in his last 15 and that is inflated by the 5 hits in two games last week.   That coupled with him being used in an important spot in the lineup until recently and you have the worst hitting catcher in ALL of Baseball with more than 140 AB.  Outside of a couple timely hits, Mauer has been absolutely useless, and more actually a detriment with his weakly hit groundball double plays.  Plouffe is in a slump, but I think he will recover.   Hunter is probably playing more like we expected of late.  

 

Point is, Buck does't fix any of these problems.  He is really replacing what Hicks provides, and Hicks is the least of the Twins problems.

 

Strong take calling 3 of the 4 best hitters in the lineup as the 2nd, 3rd and 4th biggest problems.

[Mike Sixel]

The argument seems to be, don't make CF better until you fix other problems first? That's not how baseball works, or any business. They aren't related at all.

[Willihammer]

Personally I would not call Buxton up unless/until he dominates for an extended time at AAA. There are enough workarounds in the OF for the time being that they don't need to jeopordize the development of their best prospect. I would say the same for Sano.

 

IMO the guys you would be willing to recall directly from AA are the Walkers, Joneses, maybe Rosarios - guys who are not top flight prospects but could potentially catch fire while filling more pressing holes (SS, DH, RP).

[strumdatjaguar]

After 3 or 4 more weeks of success at AA, Terry should feel comfortable bringing him up.   If he doesn't succeed, then he goes back to AA or AAA.   If he does succeed, it should help the line-up.  How about: Buxton, Rosario. Dozier, Hunter (DH), Mauer, Plouffe, Suzuki, Hicks, Escobar (Polanco???).   This puts Vargas as a PT DH and power off the bench,  Hunter as a fourth outfielder, and deserving or simply necessary back-up catcher as additional bench player.  Depending on whether Polanco comes up determines whether the Twins stick with Nunez, Escobar or both.

  

[COtwin]

 

Strong take calling 3 of the 4 best hitters in the lineup as the 2nd, 3rd and 4th biggest problems.

It is.  But Hicks is doing what we expected, and getting better.  Mayer and Suzuki have vastly underperformed all year and are trending down.  

A teams biggest problems will always be the underperforming of the Core of their lineup, not the performing to expectations of a 9 hitter.

[COtwin]

 

The argument seems to be, don't make CF better until you fix other problems first? That's not how baseball works, or any business. They aren't related at all.

Not my argument at all.  My argument is don't call for the CF fix, if you aren't going to call for the fix at 1B and C as well.  Buxton might bring us a few WAR this year if he does well right?  These other problems are actually replacement level or lower.  Chris Herrman has a higher WAR than Kurt Suzuki.  At least those two are positive WAR, Joe is a negative.  Hicks is higher than both Joe and Kurt.  

I am not arguing against Buxton up, or even benching Hicks if needed.  I am saying that there are a few players who are really hurting this team and Buxton won't fix  that, and neither will Sano (without a position change).

 

I totally get what you are saying about that's not how baseball works, but that not what I was arguing for.  

My wife walked into the room yesterday and saw Mauer up and asked, "Why does he always ground out to second?"  Right before he grounded out to second

 

I heard someone  (Ryan?) throw Santana under the bus during the broadcast, saying he wasn't taking advice or teaching and he needed to go down.  Why don't we hear that about Joe?  If my wife can recognize tendencies, and she rarely watches baseball, Why aren't we talking about benching Joe or Kurt?

Edited June 10, 2015 by COtwin

[Mike Sixel]

Joe is a huge problem, but I already was chastised once today for bringing that up in a thread that wasn't about him.......as is Suzuki. Two biggest black hoes if you don't move Sano or give Kepler a shot.....and not idea what to do at catcher.

[jokin]

It is.  But Hicks is doing what we expected, and getting better.

Hicks is doing what we hoped for, not necessarily what we expected. And that's still only a "good" glove with an OPS+ of 74 (which actually hasn't improved month over month). Rosario's OPS+ is 100. ZiPS projects Buxton to hit for 95 OPS+ with a much better glove- ~2 WAR in 380 PAs. Seems to me that Hicks would best serve the Twins as a 4th OF.

[jokin]

 

 

 

I heard someone  (Ryan?) throw Santana under the bus during the broadcast, saying he wasn't taking advice or teaching and he needed to go down.

Hopefully, Santana has gotten the message- 4-5 today.