Article: A Cry For Better Days: Shortstop

[Ted Schwerzler]

Heading into spring training, and through much of it, there was talk that the Twins standout rookie Danny Santana could be challenged or even removed from the shortstop role due to the emergence of Eduardo Escobar. At the time, it was crazy talk, and it remains so in that context.The Twins absolutely needed to allow their surprising rookie to validate his performance, but now that fact is that he simply hasn't. Heading into the heat of the summer, Minnesota has a very important decision to make.

 

Looking at the baseball field as a whole, two positions can lay claim to a higher importance in the field than most; center field and shortstop. Both roles act as a field generals of sorts and typically are manned by some of the best athletes on the team. Minnesota finds itself in a position where its shortstop ranks among the league's worst in several defensive categories, and is offering little value elsewhere.

 

After slashing an inflated .319/.353/.472 (mostly due to an unsustainable .400+ BABIP) in 2014, Danny Santana owns a paltry .226/.244/.305 slash line in 2015. He's walked just twice on the season, while accumulating 45 strikeouts. Despite being regarded as a speed threat, he has stolen just four bases while being caught three times (after being caught just four times in 24 attempts in 2014).

 

On the defensive side, he's made 11 errors (just two in 34 games at SS in 2014), is worth -10 DRS (defensive runs saved), and owns a -5.1 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). In sum, Santana is currently worth -0.7 fWAR (Wins Above Replacement) after posting a 3.3 value a season ago.

 

You absolutely had to expect a certain level of regression to hit Santana. His 2014 was otherwordly in context. What he's doing into 2015 however isn't regression. To put it simply, he's fallen off of a cliff. At this point, the Twins are nearing a crossroads where they must make a decision, and there are really only two options to consider. The first comes from within.

 

Jorge Polanco debuted with the Twins in 2014, making the leap from Single-A Fort Myers. Over the course of five games, he got eight plate appearances and collected a double and triple for his only two hits. This season in Double-A Chattanooga, he's continued his hot streak. The everyday shortstop for the loaded farm team, Polanco owns a .323/.355/.435 slash line. He's hit four home runs, driven in 24 RBI, walked 10 times, and struck out in 30 times. His nine errors are somewhat indicative of his arm strength (or lack thereof), and his fielding is something he will need to continue to refine (35 errors in 119 games at SS in 2014).

 

Suggesting a Santana for Polanco swap would not necessarily mean that the latter becomes the immediate starter. There's no doubt that Eduardo Escobar would need to be given the chance to run with the role first. A defensive upgrade over Santana, and potentially even Polanco, Escobar has flashed ability on his own. In coming over to the Twins after Minnesota dealt Francisco Liriano to the White Sox, Escobar has played a super utility role. Allowing him to focus solely on short, be removed from a DH spot, and give the Twins infield some stability, Escobar might thrive. His nine errors are somewhat indicative of his arm strength, or lack thereof, and his fielding is something he will need to continue to refine (35 errors in 119 games at SS in 2014).

 

If not, Minnesota could take a long look at Polanco as the starter sometime in the near future, but it may not rectify all of the issues. There's reason to believe Polanco could be a better hitter at the big league level, but he too could cede too many runs for the pitching staff's liking. That leads us to option number two, going outside of the organization.

 

Looking at what the Twins will do with promotions in 2015 and beyond, there's no shortage of logjams. From players like Polanco and Max Kepler, to pitchers like Stephen Gonslaves and Chih-Wei Hu, the Twins have plenty of other prospects not named Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton. Knowing that they may not be able to advance all of them through the system in it's current state, it may be time to deal some assets for immediate help.

 

Defensively, shortstop is a position that the Twins need to be sound. You probably need to go back to 2001 and Cristian Guzman for the last time you could point at the Twins having a true asset at the position. In going for a splash, the Twins could target a player like Andrelton Simmons to fill their vacancy... not the aged All-Star that Troy Tulowitzki is. Or they could target someone who would not command as much as the Cubs would require for Starlin Castro.

 

Undoubtedly, I'm not one to usually suggest trade scenarios; it's just not something I'm well versed in. That being said, Minnesota could pursue that scenario on their own should they deem Polanco not the immediate answer. No matter what happens, the thing that remains most clear is that Danny Santana is not the option to roll with currently.

 

As the summer draws on and this team jostles for position, it will be in how the next few weeks play out that determine how the Twins position themselves for the stretch run.

 

- Ted Schwerzler

Off The Baggy

@tlschwerz

 

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[h2oface]

Escobar is not looking that great at short. I don't think Santana or Escobar is the answer.

[howeda7]

I don't think it's fair to judge Escobar's D based on the last two games. He was fine last year. The first option is to give him an extended shot at it. And I'm not ready to give up on Santana. Send Santana to AAA and give Escobar SS for 6 weeks. If July 22, we still have an issue and are still in the race, a trade might be an option. But this is the Twins. We all know they'll just acquire Nick Punto for Josmil Pinto and pi$$ us all off.

[HitInAPinch]

I always thought it was a gross lack in judgement when management made the decision to move 2 end of the season starters to:

1. a starter to a different position where he wasn't all that successful at in MiLB

2. a starter to a utility roll

I will always maintain that Santana should have started the season in CF and Escobar at the starting SS and there were no other options that were that better.

I have never heard a sensible reason to do anything other than that.  Well, other than some Sabermetrics, which I don't believe there's a large enough sample size to be an accurate predictor.

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

I don't think it's fair to judge Escobar's D based on the last two games. He was fine last year. The first option is to give him an extended shot at it. And I'm not ready to give up on Santana. Send Santana to AAA and give Escobar SS for 6 weeks. If July 22, we still have an issue and are still in the race, a trade might be an option. But this is the Twins. We all know they'll just acquire Nick Punto for Josmil Pinto and pi$$ us all off.

Repetitions help a lot.  Escobar will be fine, if given the chance. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Escobar is great, flexible, able to play passable to good fielding in several positions. He hits consistently no matter where he plays. All the traits you want in a utility player. He just doesn't hit well enough to start anywhere as evidenced by all of the posts showing his stats. He's a great asset to have on the bench.

[spinowner]

Santana is 24 years old. That means he's 5 to 8 years away from his peak as a baseball player. So it's way too early to give up on him as a shortstop. He's ahead of Polanco, and of course way ahead of Gordon, and he certainly has more upside than Escobar. Add to that Escobar's value as a utility player and to me it seems obvious that the team should do whatever it takes to further Santana's development as a shortstop. That may mean sending him to AAA for a spell but that doesn't necessarily mean you should bring up Polanco. His development is important, too. If Santana goes to the minors the team's best option is probably to install Escobar at short and just take what comes. The Twins' good record early this season notwithstanding, development of prospects still should take a front seat, and if that means missing the postseason this year so be it. If we do things the right way in 2015 it will make for many postseasons to come over the next 5-10 years.

[beckmt]

Santana is 24 years old. That means he's 5 to 8 years away from his peak as a baseball player. So it's way too early to give up on him as a shortstop. He's ahead of Polanco, and of course way ahead of Gordon, and he certainly has more upside than Escobar. Add to that Escobar's value as a utility player and to me it seems obvious that the team should do whatever it takes to further Santana's development as a shortstop. That may mean sending him to AAA for a spell but that doesn't necessarily mean you should bring up Polanco. His development is important, too. If Santana goes to the minors the team's best option is probably to install Escobar at short and just take what comes. The Twins' good record early this season notwithstanding, development of prospects still should take a front seat, and if that means missing the postseason this year so be it. If we do things the right way in 2015 it will make for many postseasons to come over the next 5-10 years.

First with the end of the steroid era, player peaks are more like 27-30 and only the great ones are around much after 32(Position players). That means Santana has about 5-6 years left before the decline. I agree that maybe sending Santana to Rochester and bringing VVargas back up would handle the current problem(Other choice would be another day or two off and then about 2-3 weeks to see if there has been a change). Do not see Santana as the long term SS(could happen, but would not expect it), so get what you can out of him and them move on(trade when value is highest).

[drivlikejehu]

Players don't really peak at a particular age, they just start declining when their physical abilities start to erode, which is late 20s, early 30s. Santana was never a top prospect and probably just isn't that good.

[adjacent]

If we want to send Santana down for a few weeks, but do not want to compromise Polanco's development, why not to bring up Beresford? I know he is not in the 40-men roster, but that roster needs clean up anyway. Put Esco as a shortstop and Beresford as utility. Just an idea.

[jorgenswest]

Do they need two utility? Play Escobar at SS and Nunez is on the bench. Dozier, Plouffe and Escobar can play every day. They don't need two utility players. If something happens in a single game where there is a need for another infielder, Rosario has played a lot of 2B in the minors.

 

If they send out Santana, they can bring back a bat.

Edited June 6, 2015 by jorgenswest

[stringer bell]

 

If we want to send Santana down for a few weeks, but do not want to compromise Polanco's development, why not to bring up Beresford? I know he is not in the 40-men roster, but that roster needs clean up anyway. Put Esco as a shortstop and Beresford as utility. Just an idea.

Beresford has only played second base for the last two years, maybe more.  Obviously, the Twins don't need a second baseman.  They can get by with Nuñez as the utility guy (I know he isn't a great fielder), especially since the other two infielders don't get or take many days off.  Any injury could bring Santana back to the Twins.  The Twins need to bring up somebody that can hit, preferably left handed. 

[stringer bell]

 

 

Do they need two utility? Play Escobar at SS and Nunez is on the bench. Dozier, Plouffe and Escobar can play every day. They don't need two utility players. If something happens in a single game where there is a need for another infielder, Rosario has played a lot of 2B in the minors.

If they send out Santana, they can bring back a bat.

Couldn't say it better myself, although I tried and you beat me by a minute.

[jimmer]

 

First with the end of the steroid era, player peaks are more like 27-30 and only the great ones are around much after 32(Position players). That means Santana has about 5-6 years left before the decline. I agree that maybe sending Santana to Rochester and bringing VVargas back up would handle the current problem(Other choice would be another day or two off and then about 2-3 weeks to see if there has been a change). Do not see Santana as the long term SS(could happen, but would not expect it), so get what you can out of him and them move on(trade when value is highest).

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/

 

[Kwak]

...or they could make a mid-season trade for a major league SS using their excess in the minors as trade bait.

[Vanimal46]

Going off of Lavelle's article in the Star Trib this morning Santana's confidence is pretty much shot. They're trying to get it turned around, but that's best served in AAA in my opinion.

 

As others have mentioned we have utility players on the MLB club that can play SS in the short term. I think we disregard position and bring up the hottest bat to get the lineup going again.

[COtwin]

Santana down. Vargas up. Esco to short. Nunez utility. Waaaay to early to give up on Santana at short. Need to see if we can rebuild Esco value. If Santana sees an uptick at bat and in field bring him back and trade one of Esco and Nunez. Preferably Nunez. Santana was not a good center fielder so he shouldn't have started there this year and he shouldn't be sent back. His value will be based on him recovering as a shortstop. He needs to learn some pitch recognition and plate discipline. For a guy who just throws that bat out at the ball he sure misses the ball a lot. You would think his swing was built for contact , but the results don't show that.

[spinowner]

 

If we want to send Santana down for a few weeks, but do not want to compromise Polanco's development, why not to bring up Beresford? I know he is not in the 40-men roster, but that roster needs clean up anyway. Put Esco as a shortstop and Beresford as utility. Just an idea.

We've also got Doug Bernier, such as he is. He's on the 40-man and he can be an emergency place-holder in the majors if we feel the prospects need minor league time.

[jimbo92107]

"After slashing an inflated .319/.353/.472 (mostly due to an unsustainable .400+ BABIP) in 2014, Danny Santana owns a paltry .226/.244/.305 slash line in 2015. He's walked just twice on the season, while accumulating 45 strikeouts. Despite being regarded as a speed threat, he has stolen just four bases while being caught three times (after being caught just four times in 24 attempts in 2014)."

 

These numbers indicate a guy that's playing too tentative. Santana looks a little overwhelmed to me, so I think it would be good for him to go down to AAA and work on his fielding, hitting and stealing there.

 

The thing I like about Jorge Polanco is that he already plays the kind of ball that's been winning games for the Twins so far this season. Polanco looks for ways to apply pressure on the other team, rather than feeling pressure himself. Santana has looked too much like he's feeling the pressure, and the result has been passive, tentative play. I'm ready to see if Jorge Polanco can show us more of what we saw during his little cuppa coffee last fall.

 

What do we have to lose?

[Halsey Hall]

I think what Mollie and TR are thinking goes something like this:  Last year Santana played outfield, a new position.  He was learning on the fly, and his batting was just continue as normal, no pressure there.  If noting else, he felt comfortable in the box.  Now, he's playing short, and having his difficulties, and that's carried over into his plate appearances.  He looks like he's playing under a lot of pressure, which he is.  He knows he should be playing better defense.  Mollie and TR are just hoping that he can separate the two and start hitting like he should.  If he can do that they'll put up with his defense, which can only improve.  I think they'll give it til mid-season and then if they have to, make a change.  I don't think Escobar is the answer though. 

[by jiminy]

 

I think what Mollie and TR are thinking goes something like this:  Last year Santana played outfield, a new position.  He was learning on the fly, and his batting was just continue as normal, no pressure there.  If noting else, he felt comfortable in the box.  Now, he's playing short, and having his difficulties, and that's carried over into his plate appearances.  He looks like he's playing under a lot of pressure, which he is.  He knows he should be playing better defense.  Mollie and TR are just hoping that he can separate the two and start hitting like he should.  If he can do that they'll put up with his defense, which can only improve.  I think they'll give it til mid-season and then if they have to, make a change.  I don't think Escobar is the answer though. 

I  agree that it makes sense to be patient with a guy who's just come up, and switched positions. The problem is, hoping he hits like last year is no sure thing and may not work.

 

For one thing, he had 98 strikeouts last year and 19 walks, so even at his best, there were warning signs besides his high BABIP. 

 

He did hit a ton of doubles -- but pitchers seem to have figured him out and he's shown no sign he's been able to adjust. There's not much evidence playing through it is working for him, and he's hurting the team.

 

If they were losing like last year, sure, investing in the future makes sense, what's a wasted seaseon if he's better off for it next year. But this year, surprisingly, matters too. There's a cost now.

 

Is Santana learning things in the majors that just aren't showing up at the plate yet? I'll have to assume yes, since the coaches think so. But could he learn just as much, or almost as much, at AAA, while not costing the team games? If his hitting doesn't improve, I can't imagine the Twins not deciding that's a better option at some point fairly soon.

 

Why rush him to the majors if no one, including him, seems to be better off for it?

The arguments for the status quo are, 1) the coaches think a breakthrough is imminent; 2) Escobar doesn't look any better at the plate than he does; and 3) Polanco needs more time in the minors.

 

Let's hope it's reason number one, and his rapid emergence makes this point moot. I just don't think that's the most likely scenario. If what he has to work on is as big a deal as it seems, I'd rather see him do that in AAA.

[Halsey Hall]

So AAA is where he goes, sooner than I thought.  Let's hope he can get it going there.  Esco now steps in to play full time.  Maybe that will get his bat going, and Vargas should be here. 

[Steve Lein]

"Cristian Guzman for the last time you could point at the Twins having a true asset at the position"

 

*cough* J.J. Hardy *cough*