Article: On Unsustainable Success And Traps

[drjim]

 

If they are 10 games over at the trade deadline, I disagree. They should be going all in.

 

In 3 years, Buxton and Sano could get concussions (M&M boys, remember how they were going to carry the Twins to WS), or none of the SP prospects could have worked out, or whatever. If you are in the playoff hunt, legitimately, not barely, you have to take the chance when you have it. There is value in the more certain present. The further into the future you get, the less you know about what it going to happen.

 

I am not saying sell off the big prospects, but one of the many OF/DH/1B types that will sit in the minors while Mauer is here?

 

I just think you all are underestimating the value of certainty, and over valuing the very unpredictable future.

 

This isn't going all in. These are exactly the type of moves many people (even the national writers) are suggesting they do. Hold on to the elite guys and trade some of the depth to shore up the weaknesses.

[drjim]

 

Or they could have sat still , and not made the playoffs the last two years, and have a super deep minor league system, and then in 5 years maybe be good if everyone worked out.

 

Not sure that is a worse situation if the goal is to win championships.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not sure that is a worse situation if the goal is to win championships.

 

It is if you are running a business and need to make money. And, there just are no guarantees that either way works.

[h2oface]

 

So, H2OFACE you'd like to trade two of the Twins top prospects in Polanco and Meyer for Tulo who is a 30 year old SS who has never played a full season in the majors.

 

Yes...... that is part of what I just proposed with further explanation.....

and/or Colorado's choices in other possible prospects.

 

I'm glad you're not the GM for the Twins.

 

I think you could make your same points without the "I'm glad you're not the GM for the Twins", don't you?

 

In 46 games at AA Polanco is hitting .318 with 27 runs and 24 RBI's. He is only 21 years old and is on the verge of at least moving up to AAA. You say we have plenty of SS in case Tulo gets injured, but with him it's not an IF he gets injured it's a WHEN he get injured. There is no reason to trade for an expensive, soon to be over the hill SS that benefits for playing half his games in Colorado.

And what if Tulos's injuries are behind him? And what if he does sustain? And what if Polanco is not the future shortstop but Gordon is?.... in 4 to 5 years, just in time to replace Tulo? Polanco and Santana both have fielding ability questions. No prospect is a sure thing. Either way, you don't need both or all three or 4. Remember the amazing haul for Johan Santana? Will Santana and Escobar become another Rivas/Valencia/Florimon/Parmalee that you yo-yo back in forth from AAA to the show, can rake in the minors but fail everytime in the show?..... and then finally give up on them and get nothing in return? Or do you go with arguably the best all around shortstop in the show in the middle of his prime years as a team leader in the infield leader position for the rest of the new youth coming up?

Polanco could be great. Gordon could become great. Or not. Tulo is. The main point is that you can make a mega-deal to vastly improve the team right now without ruining plans for the future. You can't make 10 of them, but you can make at least one.

Edited June 3, 2015 by h2oface

[drjim]

 

It is if you are running a business and need to make money. And, there just are no guarantees that either way works.

 

I didn't realize your goal was for the Pohlad's to maximize their profit.

[h2oface]

 

Fear not, this wouldn't be enough to get Tulo.

Stated as fact and not opinion, but I think it is opinion, and no one knows what it would take yet, but it is highly rumored that Tulo will be traded. I contend, and now repeat, it is a start to the conversation..... one doesn't even know what Colorado would want yet. There are plenty of redundant pieces in the minors that are very good prospects, but many of the same eventual pieces. The trick is to trade some while their up side is shouting and the downside hasn't gotten exposed to much to make them lose value.... like the talk is about Alex Meyer's current value dropping to very low.

Edited June 3, 2015 by h2oface

[drjim]

 

Stated as fact and not opinion, but I think it is opinion, and no one knows. I contend, and now repeat, it is a start to the conversation..... one doesn't even know what Colorado would want yet. There are plenty of redundant pieces in the minors that are very good prospects, but many of the same eventual pieces. The trick is to trade some while their up side is shouting and the downside hasn't gotten exposed to much to make them lose value.... like the talk is about Alex Meyer's current value dropping to very low.

 

To clarify, I would completely be on board with checking in on Tulo. Just don't think you are getting him without one of the big three.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I didn't realize your goal was for the Pohlad's to maximize their profit.

 

it isn't, but they can't just ignore profitability, as much as I'd like them to.

 

My issue with the Pohlad's approach was that, imo, you have to sometimes spend money to make it. It appears that is happening lately.

[h2oface]

 

One thing that has not been mentioned is Paul Molitor and his base running philosophy.

 

Molitor tells his players to take the base(s) they are given and then try to take more.

 

From what I understand, Molitor wants his players to run hard for the given base, which puts pressure on defenses to get the ball back in. It also puts the base runner in position to take advantage of a defensive miscue or lackadaisical fielding.

 

How many times in the past have we seen a player all of a sudden realize he potentially has an extra base, but because he didn't run hard for that first base, he lost his chance?

 

It's all well and good to talk about clutch hitting, but if players are not doing the things that will put them in scoring position, there is no clutch hitting.

It stlill happens every day, every game, and since there is a double header today, it will happen even more. To ever let up and lope at all to first base is just not smart. The double could have been a triple. The swinging strikeout not caught could force a throw to first.  But the "pros" do it all the time. All of them on this team do it, unless they think they really might have a chance to beat it out. It is really shameful. What else do they have to do at the time, anyway? The get to play ball and get paid way too much to do it. RUN!!

[SF Twins Fan]

 

And what if Tulos's injuries are behind him? And what if he does sustain? And what if Polanco is not the future shortstop but Gordon is?.... in 4 to 5 years, just in time to replace Tulo? Polanco and Santana both have fielding ability questions. No prospect is a sure thing. Either way, you don't need both or all three or 4. Remember the amazing haul for Johan Santana? Will Santana and Escobar become another Rivas/Valencia/Florimon/Parmalee that you yo-yo back in forth from AAA to the show, can rake in the minors but fail everytime in the show?..... and then finally give up on them and get nothing in return? Or do you go with arguably the best all around shortstop in the show in the middle of his prime years as a team leader in the infield leader position for the rest of the new youth coming up?

Polanco could be great. Gordon could become great. Or not. Tulo is. The main point is that you can make a mega-deal to vastly improve the team right now without ruining plans for the future. You can't make 10 of them, but you can make at least one.

That's a whole lot of IFs there at the beginning of your post.  10 years of Tulo in the majors and not once playing a full season is pretty good evidence he isn't able to stay healthy.  He's definitely a very good defensive SS, but his offensive numbers are helped by the fact he plays in Colorado for half the season.  If you look at the last three year from 2012 to 2014:
Home: BA .354, HR 31,  Runs 107, RBI 92
Away: BA .276, HR 23, Runs 69, RBI 69
Also, I don't think I'd call someone who will be 31 in the beginning of October "in the middle of their prime."  Prime age is 26 to 30 and once you get to 30 you're on the back end of your prime.

[Vanimal46]

Stated as fact and not opinion, but I think it is opinion, and no one knows what it would take yet, but it is highly rumored that Tulo will be traded. I contend, and now repeat, it is a start to the conversation..... one doesn't even know what Colorado would want yet. There are plenty of redundant pieces in the minors that are very good prospects, but many of the same eventual pieces. The trick is to trade some while their up side is shouting and the downside hasn't gotten exposed to much to make them lose value.... like the talk is about Alex Meyer's current value dropping to very low.

Tulo very well could be traded this season, especially if they're out of the race for the playoffs early. They have built their entire roster around Tulo and Carlos Gonzalez. My opinion, and what do I know, is they will demand at least one of the following: Buxton, Sano, Berrios + other prospects to rebuild. I just don't think it's realistic because there is no evidence that the Twins have ever made that type of trade before.

 

The Rockies as usual desperately need pitching. And it seems the natural fit would be a team like the Mets who could include Syndergaard as the key piece in a trade.

[Eris]

 

I think the mega-deal should be attempted at Shortstop, and for Tulo, who is going to be traded, just a mattter of who to. ...

 

I do not understand the fascination with Troy Tulowitzki.  He is at best, having an average year at shortstop.  From Fangraphs.  DRS =-2 (17th), UZR/150 = -8.7 (19th) and WAR =0.6 (14th).  For comparison, Danny Santana DRS = -9 (29th), UZR/150 = -13.5 (22nd) and WAR=-0.8 (22nd).  

 

Yes, he represents an improvement over the Twins current options, but is not worth giving away part of the farm, especially considering his salary.  I would much rather the Twins bring up Polanco than make a trade for an average shortstop.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I do not understand the fascination with Troy Tulowitzki. He is at best, having an average year at shortstop. From Fangraphs. DRS =-2 (17th), UZR/150 = -8.7 (19th) and WAR =0.6 (14th). For comparison, Danny Santana DRS = -9 (29th), UZR/150 = -13.5 (22nd) and WAR=-0.8 (22nd).

 

Yes, he represents an improvement over the Twins current options, but is not worth giving away part of the farm, especially considering his salary. I would much rather the Twins bring up Polanco than make a trade for an average shortstop.

This is a misuse of defensive metrics. Tulo has been solidly above average by both metrics in the past, no reason to throw that out for a 2 month sample.

 

Still wouldn't endorse a trade, though.

[jimmer]

Tulo was the best shortstop by a mile coming into this season and he's having a slow start.  Unless he's fallen off a cliff, he'd be a vast improvement on our team and most teams. In fact, even if he only averaged 120 games before having his annual injury, 120 games of Tulo and 42 games of others still makes that combo shorstop situation in the game.

[Kleppy12]

If the Twins make a big move around the deadline the only major piece they should consider moving in Mauer.  I do not say this as a Mauer hater but over the last two years he's batting around .280 which is decent but not worth the money we have invested in him and is in a position where if you bat in the 200's you better hit 30-40 HR's a year.  If the Terry Ryan could manage to trade Mauer with some team eating half his contract this would free a place for Vargas/Sano/Walker to come up and play DH/1B because at this point I don't feel like you would be losing much and would free up money for other players who will need the money sooner rather than later.  Just my two cents I know it won't happen but emotions aside if they can't get a good return on Mauer(player or money -wise) then keep him but if you can dump some of the contract or get a good player back I think that's where you make a move. 

Edited June 8, 2015 by Kleppy12

[JB_Iowa]

 

If the Twins make a big move around the deadline the only major piece they should consider moving in Mauer.  I do not say this as a Mauer hater but over the last two years he's batting around .280 which is decent but not worth the money we have invested in him and is in a position where if you bat in the 200's you better hit 30-40 HR's a year.  If the Terry Ryan could manage to trade Mauer with some team eating half his contract this would free a place for Vargas/Sano/Walker to come up and play DH/1B because at this point I don't feel like you would be losing much and would free up money for other players who will need the money sooner rather than later.  Just my two cents I know it won't happen but emotions aside if they can't get a good return on Mauer(player or money -wise) then keep him but if you can dump some of the contract or get a good player back I think that's where you make a move. 

 

No. Trade. Clause.

 

I can't see Joe agreeing to a trade when if the Twins keep winning.  Not sure he would even if they go in the dumpster.