A minor point, but it's my understanding Santana is allowed to pitch in the minors (without pay) during his suspension, which would allow him to be game-ready the day he is elegible to return. Somebody please correct me if I'm wrong.

Yup.  16 days:

 

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_27844942/twins-ervin-santana-suspended-80-games-after-testing

 

 

The Joint Drug Agreement allows for a 16-day minor league assignment before PED-suspended players are activated.

 

 

But how do you explain his relative success at the MLB level?  

 

He was ok for about 100 starts in a ballpark that very much favored him.  (To the tune of about .75 of a run better for his career)  

 

Do some lefty junkballers find a way to have long and productive careers?  Sure, but not nearly as many as flame out after brief moments in the sun.  Working against Milone also is that his career numbers don't show him to be all that great against LHB either, which even makes the bullpen a dicey alternative.

 

He's nice depth to have, but I think we're making too much out of what he's doing in AAA.  Not that Rochester is complaining I'm sure.

Milone's K rate at Rochester is almost exactly 2x that of his MLB average of 6.4 K/9.

 

He's pitching great now, and that's fantastic.  But upon a call up, he's going to have to get 6 additional outs now where the ball is put into play.  Even if contact is weakly induced, it's not going to stop Texas Leaguers, seeing-eye-singles, errors, sac flies, hitting behind the runners, fielder's choices or whatever kind of bizare fielding play Oswaldo Arcia might come up with next.

 

87-MPH fastballs are just so rarely sustainable at the MLB level.

Edited May 19, 201511 yr by nicksaviking

 

Gaining an extra five wins from the bottom of the rotation means just as much as getting an extra five from the front, unless you're talking playoffs.  Getting more production from the back is certainly a lot cheaper, but it also requires making the right choices among a number of similar options.  Which is why this is important to get right.

 

 

 

I can see your point. I guess I hadn't really thought there was any great likelihood of getting any more than maybe a couple wins difference between May and Milone, but you may be right. They seem pretty interchangeable to me, but they may be a lot less so than I'm capable of discerning.

Speaking of lefty fireballers, I see that Scott Diamond was edged out by Chi Wei Hu this afternoon. God, I miss him.

For some reason, Milone reminds me of a certain Mr Hendriks who lit up AAA but when at the bigs he was less than mediocre.

 

Milone lead (and still does) the Twins' starters with 6.32 FIP this season.  He is fine where he is and if anyone is willing to take him for a borderline prospect, more power to the Twins.   May has a 3.39 FIP in the bigs and nothing to prove in AAA, and is more of part of the future than Milone, and unlike Milone, none of the other starters did anything to lose their job...

 

Speaking of lefty fireballers, I see that Scott Diamond was edged out by Chi Wei Hu this afternoon. God, I miss him.

 

Who?

 

 

For some reason, Milone reminds me of a certain Mr Hendriks who lit up AAA but when at the bigs he was less than mediocre.

 

 

 

Liam Hendriks, like many other current and past ex-Twins is currently a Canadian refugee, and has revitalized his career as a RP for the Blue Jays:

 

13 G 17.1 IP ERA 3.63 xFIP 2.92 SIERA 2.41 K/9 8.83 BB/9 1.56 H/9 5.7 BA .180

 

Maybe there's hope for Milone, yet?

 

Who?

Diamond, that's Hu.

Count me impressed by what Milone has done since his demotion. It's way too easy to simply say an experienced ML pitcher should dominate like that. Rehab starts or not, we've seen it doesn't just happen like that. He's working hard to prove a point and I comend him greatly for that!

 

However, today, right now, I say don't promote him. Sucks for him, but I just don't think he's a reliever. And despite his Rochester success, there is just no justifiable reason to promote him at this time over any of the other Twins starters.

 

Hughes is Hughes, quality, and like last year, starting a bit slow but seems to be rounding and gaining momentum. Talent and contract, you aren't messing around with him. Gibson is young, talented, has a bright future, is doing well despite also rounding, and no way he comes out. Nor should he.

 

May? No way! The kid was ONE pitch away the other day from a 1run 7 IP performance. It was still a high quality start, the Twins still won, he pitched well, has outstanding ability and potential, seems to keep working and improving, and you shoot yourself in the foot with a shotgun if you pull him for any reason other than a bad, bad slump.

 

The past couple of games, Nolasco hasn't made it through the 6th, but he's SO a ton without BB, won, flashed, and is owed money and time contractually. He's also owed patience due to injury. His OK career is that, solid and OK, not bad, and he shouldn't be dismissed. I still maintain the best case scenario is for a healthy Nolasco to produce and be traded at some point.

 

That leaves Pelfrey. His career biography would state things like; injured, inconsistent, poor peripherals, disappointing. But he's healthy NOW and pitching well NOW. Is he really fully healthy, strong and developing? Or is he on a "flash" cycle? Odds and history say the latter. But who knows. And if you're riding a nag who is outperforming thoroughbreds, you don't put the horse down or send it to the glue factory just because it's a nag. You ride it as far as you can. I still believe Pelfrey will falter, is a better fit in the pen, can re-invent himself in the pen potentially, and carve out a nice niche worth real $. But for now, I don't know why you'd pull him for Milone.

 

Besides, we're going to be overcrowded when July rolls around and Santana shows up. And that isn't even counting Meyer getting on track, Berrios continuing to heat up, or any other of the solid upper milb pitchers looking like they deserve a shot.

May to the bullpen, if nothing else. And keep marketing Pelfrey every good start he gives you - he's not coming back for sure in 2016 and if we can get soemthing for him, to make up for what we have gotten out of him the past two years, the Twins should do so...thus freeing that spot.

 

May coud be a solid long guy in the pen. Do we say goodbye to Duensing? How much leash does Stauffer have? Is Boyer the real thing (he is for now, so he is untouchable). But the Twins still need to make a couple of bullpen moves anyways. If we consider Duensing, Tonkin and Pressly as dead weight better sent elsewhere, what does that say about the state of the guys replacing them?

 

I remember Kevin Slowey had eye-popping AAA numbers as well...

Hey, watch it. Kevin Slowey was framed!

Keep in mind that a replacement-level MLB player is actually a good AAA player. Veterans produce in AAA all the time despite not being very good; clubs keep them around in case of emergency. That's what Milone is. He has no place in the Twins rotation now or in the foreseeable future.

Slowey had eye popping AAA numbers and seemed to be turning a corner in MLB until he took a liner off of his wrist. He was never the same after that, including when he went back to AAA FWIW.