Article: Time To Take Twins Seriously?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Now into the second month of the 2015 major league baseball season, the Minnesota Twins have just under 30 games under their belt. Looking at the landscape of the season that is to come, they've completed roughly one-fifth of their slate, and played through the month of April against foes coming largely from the AL Central. At 15-13 as of May 6, and just 2.5 games out of first in the Central Division, things are in a good place. Now the question is, should we take this Twins team seriously?After starting 1-6 through on the season, and seeing plenty of misguided "the sky is falling" type comments, the Twins have turned it around big time. Winners of 11 of 16 games at home, they currently own the best home record in the America League. After being -20 early in the season in the run differential category, Minnesota is now +12 in that department (trailing only the Royals, Yankees and Astros). With plenty of time left until the heat of the summer, Minnesota has plenty of time to continue to shape their 2015 narrative.

 

Taking a look at previous opening day Twins rosters (check them out here at Twinkie Town, Jesse does a great job with these), there had been a looming cloud for the past four seasons. With plenty of areas for concern, and few alternative options, the question was always when would the bottom fall out. Last season, the Twins hung around longer than expected, and even made the move to add Kendrys Morales to the lineup. The eventual result in recent seasons has always been a late summer slide that has turned into uninspired September baseball. With Paul Molitor in his first season, this club looks poised to turn the corner.

Arguably one of the worst lineups the Twins have put on the field during 2015, Molitor went with Eduardo Escobar, Chris Herrmann, and Shane Robinson as his 5-7 hitters against the Athletics last night. While Herrmann went hitless, Escobar paced the lineup, and the team hung a 13 spot on Oakland. Although that's obviously an isolated example, the fact of the matter is that this team has battled in the early going, and has found ways to get it done.

 

When the summer months roll around, and this team is looking for an added jolt, there doesn't seem to be a point where the bottom should drop out. Guys like Herrmann, Eduardo Nunez, Jordan Schafer, and Shane Robinson are all replaceable from within the organization, and their eventual removal should be a net positive. Getting a hot-hitting Josmil Pinto, Aaron Hicks, or even Byron Buxton into the lineup should only give the Twins a better chance on a nightly basis.

With the lineup producing where it is, it might be best to remember that everything begins and ends with pitching. Sure, the Twins haven't lit the world on fire, but Trevor May, Mike Pelfrey and Kyle Gibson have all been nice surprises in the early going. If this club can continue to pitch at a respectable level, they should expect to be in games on a night basis.

 

There's no doubt the AL Central will continue to be one of the toughest divisions throughout the remainder of the season. I find it hard to believe that the White Sox and Indians will continue to be as bad as they have been, as well as believing the Royals and Tigers won't be as good as they have started. If Minnesota can continue to stay even-keeled, there's no doubt they'll be in a position to make some waves come September.

 

It's early, but it's time to stop comparing this team to the poor teams that have come before it. This roster is cut from a different cloth, and the performance has warranted a new tide of optimism. There's no doubt this Twins team is capable of continuing to make believers out of people.

 

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[gil4]

When they were 1-6 it was too early to write them off, but we did it anyway.   It's probably too early to take them seriously now, too, but...

 

They have played well.  Bad teams can have stretches when they play well, but this does feel bit different.  This isn't the result of a bunch of guys playing way over their heads.  For every unsustainable positive there is at least one player playing below expectations who could improve.   

 

I really have no idea what to expect, so 143-13 here we come (until proven otherwise.)

[ashbury]

Our batters have an above average Babip in aggregate, while our pitchers have one that is below. FIP is also well above ERA. I'm enjoying it while it lasts, A LOT, but we'll need further infusions from the prospect pipeline to make this a sustainable level of performance.

[Linus]

I will repeat my expectations from spring training.  Since they scored the 6th or 7th most runs in baseball last year with pretty much the same lineup back....and that their pitching is improved (even with E. Santana suspended) i think they hang right around 500 for the season.

 

I actually like the way they are mixing in younger players to the mix while trying to win some games right now.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

Boo-yah! Boo-yah! Boo-yah!

[gil4]

 

Boo-yah! Boo-yah! Boo-yah!

Not sure exactly what it means, but I think it's supposed to be good.

[spinowner]

Time to take them seriously? Uh, no. Baseball history is littered with teams that did well for a couple months, then faded away. But for the time being at least it's fun to follow a winning team.

[Dantes929]

"but Trevor May, Mike Pelfrey and Kyle Gibson have all been nice surprises"  

Haven't surprised me much especially May and Gibson.    Pelfrey doesn't surprise me all that much because I remember his nice stretch in 2013. and I just expect the best of the people I root for.   Since Pelfrey has picked up the pace those are the guys I enjoy watching most.   I like Hughes but find his style a little boring.   I don't like Nolasco all that much and find his style a little boring.   I take them seriously and will continue to do so even if they lose a dozen straight.  We at least have seen a glimpse of what they can do.  The future is bright.   If not, then the next future will be.  Just out of curiosity if they continue to play well and then are bolstered by Buxton, Hicks and Santana later and make a serious run at a division that most folks say has the two best teams in the league will it still mean that the game has passed Ryan by?

[Rosterman]

If the starters can keep the team in games.

 

They have the offense potential. Can we afford to put fielders in play when Gibson pitches. You will have some games that the Twins CAN'T beat the other team and will be shut out.

 

We will have Ervin Santana back in 50 more games.

 

Right now, we have backups for pretty much every position, and then can play everyday. There is some waste, some fluff, that shouldn't be here (and won't be here in 2016). But we have strength in bullpen numbers, it seems. Not counting the guys that MIGHT break the 40-man (be it Oliveros or Burdi or even Reed and Jones).

 

The also rans, the Schafers, the Duensings, the Robinsons, the Nunez, even Escobar are playing for jobs. It is their job right now to lose.

 

Hughes is better than he ahs shown so far.

 

Is Gibson the second-coming of Carlos Silva and the one-year-wonder of the ground-ball out?

 

May has shown that he has conquered control issues.

If Pelfrey is going to toy with us, let's hope he puts together three solid starts back-to-back when someone is wanting.

 

Nolasco, I'm afraid.

 

The West is showing signs of weakness. Will be interesting to see what Houston is like against the Twins. The East may be more dominant against us.

 

One school lets out, we will see if the Twins are still being written off, or if crowds will rise, at least on weekends.

 

 

 

 

[Danchat]

Let's remember that the Colorado Rockies were in first place around 8 days ago, then they lost 7 in a row and are now in the cellar.

 

The Twins had a really bad run in the first week. They've had a fantastic last 2 weeks.

 

Teams are going to fluctuate over the course of the season. I don't see the Twins being able to sustain their current level of play, but I think now that we've seen them play so well, I think going .500 isn't out of the question anymore.

 

The Twins are going to have another slump. They just have to make sure it isn't quite as bad as the first one.

Edited May 8, 2015 by Danchat

[Willihammer]

In 2013 this team would get behind and they were done. They were hopeless. Last year they got behind a lot but we saw them show an ability to rebound. They had some bats. This year I think even more so. I think back to Hughes' last start, giving up a grand slam. I was listening on the radio and thought "well this is over quick," flipped the station. When I turned back, the Twins put up a 4-spot and got back in the game, and later won. That's pretty good for any team. This team is going to live and die by its bats, IMO. They have some firepower to overcome their weaknesses.

[ashbury]

 

In 2013 this team would get behind and they were done. They were hopeless.

On May 9, 2013, the Twins came back from a 2-0 deficit to beat Boston 5-3, to run their season record to 16-15.

 

We don't know yet whether the 2015 edition is hopeless or not, either.

[glunn]

I don't think that it is possible to measure Molitor's contribution, but my sense is that he may be accountable for some of the current "lucky streak."  It's also possible that Torii has made it his mission to persuade younger players that the Twins can win the division.  This is pure speculation on my part, but it seems possible that good things are happening in the clubhouse that are not being reported.

[goulik]

It also depends on what you consider to be "taking this team seriously". Many of us seriously expect this team to be a 500 team give or take a few wins. Contenders for the World Series? Not yet. Playoffs? If so, one round and done Im sure but a lot of things would have to bounce right our way for that.

 

In all honesty though, this is sports and you really never know until half way through any season what your team has. Heck, half way through the Wild season we would all have been happy if they snuck into the playoffs and now were crushed because we thought they were gonna win it all.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The big thing I like is that the offense is picking up.  I'd like to see some power, but hopefully that will come.  We are seeing good pitching from several guys as well.  That said, I really don't know what the org is going to do with Nolsaco.  He was pretty bad (minus a month or so at the end of last season) last year and this.  He's got some success in the majors, but at some point, he's going to have to be released as I don't see anyone trading for him.  That very well may wait until Santana is ready, but I have to think that's in the cards.  He's still on payroll for 2 more years after that.  That's way too many to keep doing this, and with Hughes and Santana locked up long term, and promising output from Gibson and May, I have to think that last spot will eventually make it to one of Meyer, Wheeler, Rogers, or Berrios.  Heck, even Duffey will be in play shortly I suspect. 

 

I do agree that it's a bit too early to take them seriously.  They were over .500 for a bit the last two seasons, but this does seem to be a better team, and one real positive is that reinforcements aren't far behind. 

[JB_Iowa]

Unlike most here, I  don't believe in taking baseball seriously -- it's really just entertainment for me.

 

So I don't know that I'd take this or any other team seriously.  The one thing that makes me hopeful is that the Twins have been winning even though there is LOTS of room for improvement.

 

Berardino has been tweeting out a number of stats this morning (not going to post them all here) that make it pretty clear that regression is possible.  But they also make it clear that improvement is possible.

 

This is one year when I think management and coaching may be a significant in-season factor.

[stringer bell]

I predicted the Twins would win 85 games.  At first, that looked pretty silly and I still believe it will take a lot of good fortune for the Twins to win that many games.  However, I think they have enough talent to be relevant for the entire season.  Somebody has to say this.  Right now, if the season ended today, the Twins would be the second wild card and have the eighth best record in baseball. They have outscored their opponents by 13 runs and have run-scoring and run-prevention numbers in the top half of the league. Hard to sustain? Yes. Impossible? No.

[Steven Buhr]

As others are, I'm just enjoying the ride right now. It has been far too infrequent the past few years when a Twins fan could smile and enjoy supporting a team that was having some level of success.  I'll take it while I can get it.

 

I am in the camp, however, of those who sense this year has some level of hope that I haven't felt for several years.

 

In the past, when you'd think about, "what if (insert unexpectedly hot mediocre veteran name here) begins to regress?" the answer was often, "If that happens, we're screwed." It would inevitably happen and the Twins were inevitably screwed.

 

Now, the answer might be Rosario, Hicks, Meyer, Buxton, etc. And that list would include at least one prospect at virtually every position. Not to mention that we don't have to speculate about whether the Twins will go out and acquire a legit starting pitcher to bolster the rotation in July - Ervin Santana WILL be added to the rotation.

 

I don't know if it's time to take the Twins seriously if, by "seriously" you mean, "serious postseason contenders." It's premature to do that, I imagine.

 

But it's time to pay attention to the Twins. We're starting to see their future and that's worth watching.

 

[brvama]

First, excellent article. Also some good comments with which I agree. Seems like there is a cautious, but hopeful, outlook by many, such as:

 

I do agree that it's a bit too early to take them seriously.  They were over .500 for a bit the last two seasons, but this does seem to be a better team, and one real positive is that reinforcements aren't far behind.

Exactly. I especially agree with last half of that statement. This very well looks like the beginning of the new Twins. Aren't there yet, but I am seeing progress in the right direction. The first week several of us called for patience. We have since been rewarded with good baseball and excellent results. I am hoping that that we continue to see good baseball as this team transitions into the team that many of us are eagerly awaiting.

[Ted Schwerzler]

A lot has been made about FIP and quality of opponents early on. Both are solid talking points, and both can be viewed as a double sided situation. Regarding pitchers and FIP, ground ball guys are benefiting early and that shouldn't change. Conversely, fly ball pitchers are getting burnt early, and that may actually change. The outfield defense was expected to be bad, but it's hard to see Aaron Hicks and eventually Byron Buxton not making a significant impact.

 

As far as beating lesser opponents, it's best to remember baseball is a grind. With a 162 game schedule, there's nothing more important than beating the teams that you absolutely should beat. The Twins in recent years have failed to do this, and the problem only compounds as you lose to teams that are a bit better. Continuing to beat those you should, and stealing games from those you shouldn't, is a good recipe for success.

[Loosey]

The one thing I want to continue to watch is both the bullpen and the use of it.  During that 1-6 stretch to start the season the bullpen was atrocious.  Now, they seem to pitching very well.  I haven't looked at the peripherals, but is this an anomaly or are some of these guys actually pretty good.  Boyer was hitting 96 MPH on the gun yesterday with some nasty movement.  If the starting pitchers can continue to pitch decently like they have and get into the 6th and 7th inning it makes it a lot easier on the pen.  I think they are big key, and if they do come back to earth there are a few good arms most of us would love to see up here soon.

[Circus Boy]

The thing I've enjoyed most so far is the team's Crazy Ivan lineups and aggressive at-bats and baserunning. Really keeps opponents off balance and works more often than not, and when it doesn't it's still better than playing not to lose.

[TheLeviathan]

It's the first week of May and we're watching Mauer use the whole field, Rosario homer on his first pitch, actual platoon usage!, and young players like May, Santana, and Vargas working through struggles and adjusting.

 

Our record may end up sucking, but some things are happening that have needed to happen for awhile.  Are there still some nits to pick, absolutely.  But hard to complain with 3 out of every 5 days there is a starter part of the long-term plan taking the mound and and 5 or 6 bats that are part of it in the lineup every day.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

The SP is far ahead of previous years.....so that provides hope to me that things will be better than the last 2 years, but no, I still think, as composed, they are a 88 loss team. It's too early to think differently (for me anyway)......so given they've banked some wins, now thinking 85 loss team or so (as currently constructed).

[howieramone2]

When Buxton takes over CF and bats lead-off, and Santana helps anchor the rotation, I think we become a .500 team. We probably need to wait for Sano to become legitimate contenders.

[laloesch]

I have to admit that after the 1-6 start i was flipping the panic switch.  That said, these last two weeks and the Twins return to relevance has been a breath of fresh air.  I hope it continues.  

 

I like that the front office has called up Rosario and is watching Buxton closely in Chattanooga.  That would seem to indicate that changes are likely coming in the outfield soon.  Obviously the platoon in CF is not ideal but it hasn't been so terrible (lately) that it has cost us games.  Arcia too hasn't exactly been outstanding in LF either.  I bet that Ryan is watching Buxton closely and we could see a callup to Rochester in a few weeks.  The point is though that help is on the way for the outfield.

 

The next key item is the starting rotation.  If these guys can keep these games under control and respectable for the most part this team will win games, there's no doubt in my mind.  The offense is good enough to compensate. 

 

What has impressed me the most is the FO commitment to May after Nolasco went down with the injury.  Maybe it was by chance, but they stuck with him and Trevor has stepped up pretty well.  I expect him to gain more steam as the season progresses.  

 

Pelfrey....Mike has been a big surprise so far.  I think a lot of us had pretty much given up on him, but now he appears to be back on track AND he's added a split finger pitch to his repertoire.  My honest opinion.....SELL, put that for sale sign out at the curb RIGHT NOW.  Now is our chance to recoup some of the lost investment in him.   Especially true given we have Milone, Rogers and Berrios ready to go in AAA.

 

Nolasco.  Boy I don't know about this guy.  What do you do with him?  If he continues to pitch like this i don't see how you keep him in the rotation.  He just stinks.  Too bad he's signed for two more years.  Yuck!

 

 

Edited May 8, 2015 by laloesch

[ashbury]

 

With a 162 game schedule, there's nothing more important than beating the teams that you absolutely should beat.

The second most important thing then is not being one of the teams that other teams absolutely should beat.

[Dave T]

The best part of the season so far is, we are now talking about how the Twins have been beating lesser opponents.  Remember the preseason assessments of the American League teams?  Chicago, Cleveland, and Oakland were supposed to be good teams!  Not the Twins.

[howieramone2]

I would be very surprised if Pelfrey isn't traded at some point in time for a worthwhile prospect. After 3 games and 13 innings, it's too early to panic on Nolasco. Let's see if he's healthy and take it from there.

Edited May 8, 2015 by howieramone2

[jimmer]

 

The best part of the season so far is, we are now talking about how the Twins have been beating lesser opponents.  Remember the preseason assessments of the American League teams?  Chicago, Cleveland, and Oakland were supposed to be good teams!  Not the Twins.

Yeah, full disclosure, I said the White Sox and Twins would battle for last in the division. I never bought the White Sox being good this year.

 

And, you know, it's still early.