Article: What's A Realistic Timeline For Byron Buxton?

[Shane Wahl]

 

Your ideology is probably more rational and I'd be down for a AAA stint before the show. Just that as highly as he's touted, he's much more of a can't miss than Hicks, Arcia, or anyone outside of Joe Mauer has ever been in the Twins system so that's why I'm surprised the majority of posters are a bit leery (if that's the right word) of his talents.

 

I think it is just tempered expectations because there have been no success stories out of the system for awhile other than Dozier, Plouffe, and Gibson, and the second one took quite awhile, the third one is getting pretty lucky this year, and Dozier was a bit fluky. 

[eLee612]

That's your timeline for Buxton?

Ay caramba...

Haha no way!! I was responding to whoever asked "when does he turn 25?" My timeline is when he's ready. Edited May 7, 2015 by eLee612

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Buxton's development is surely a crucial var in determining his callup date, but it would be somewhat naive to discount the role his Super Two status plays into his eventual callup. If big market teams like the Angels and Cubs (with regard to service time, not Super Two) play games to tack on a year of player control, it is surely a powerful force in their decision-making process.

If you are referring to Trout, the Angels played no such service time games with him.  I think the Bryant situation was notable because such a move from a big-market team has been rare.  The main culprits, I think, have been the Rays and Astros.

 

And service time is the big one, and the Twins are already past that being an issue unless they hold him down until May 2016.  Super Two might mean cost us a couple extra million if he turns out to be great, but that should be of no consideration to the Twins now (and I don't believe that it is).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Would I mind it if they jettison or bench Hunter for a Hicks-Buxton-Arcia OF?  Nope.  But realistically it's not happening...

Hunter or more likely Arcia could shift to DH too.  I hope Vargas is heating up, but I don't know if he's untouchable.  (Nor is Arcia, for that matter.)  Hicks might be improved but not untouchable, everyday good either.

 

I'm thinking if these guys are all healthy and ready to contribute, we can fit them all in (remember, Eduardo Escobar started 4 straight games in LF even before Arcia's injury).  Imagine having legit bats off the bench and/or defensive replacement options...

[Willihammer]

Santana to CF. Esco to SS. Everybody bats, everyday. Problem solved.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

All winter I've been listening to posters complain about the team not investing in a center fielder.  More and more I'm becoming convinced the team has believed they had one all along.

Well, the CF problem (and more generally the OF problem) started when Buxton was barely a glimmer in our eyes 2-3 years ago.  And he was reassigned from MLB camp (despite good health) very quickly in both 2013 and 2014 spring trainings, so I am not sure the team was really expecting to fast-track him at those points.

 

But I hope you're right about this past offseason.  That would mean they promote Buxton aggressively, and perhaps even skip him ahead of Hicks.  Would be fun to see!

[tobi0040]

 

If you are referring to Trout, the Angels played no such service time games with him.  I think the Bryant situation was notable because such a move from a big-market team has been rare.  The main culprits, I think, have been the Rays and Astros.

 

And service time is the big one, and the Twins are already past that being an issue unless they hold him down until May 2016.  Super Two might mean cost us a couple extra million if he turns out to be great, but that should be of no consideration to the Twins now (and I don't believe that it is).

 

You can throw the Pirates in there too.  Last spring, they offered Springer a 7 year deal prior to making his debut and when he rejected the deal, they sent him to AAA.  Most believe he would have made the team had he signed.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24493001/report-george-springer-rejects-seven-year-23-million-offer-from-astros

Edited May 7, 2015 by tobi0040

[dxpavelka]

 

Based on the Marlins track record, they don't care about this calculation, they just bring up the best players.

That's because they've already unloaded the rest of their players and bring up what's left.  Good or bad.

[70charger]

 

You can throw the Pirates in there too.  Last spring, they offered Springer a 7 year deal prior to making his debut and when he rejected the deal, they sent him to AAA.  Most believe he would have made the team had he signed.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24493001/report-george-springer-rejects-seven-year-23-million-offer-from-astros

 

Astros? If the Pirates offered him money, he should have taken it.

[tobi0040]

 

Astros? If the Pirates offered him money, he should have taken it.

 

Wrong team!  The Pirates did a very similar thing with Polanco though.  Just not quite as obvious. 

[tobi0040]

 

 

And service time is the big one, and the Twins are already past that being an issue unless they hold him down until May 2016.  Super Two might mean cost us a couple extra million if he turns out to be great, but that should be of no consideration to the Twins now (and I don't believe that it is).

 

Here is my understanding of the various deadlines.  If true, I think it would cost the Twins way more than a few million.  If I have this correct, we won't see Buxton until the second deadline passes.

 

The first deadline, 12 days into the season gives the team an additional year of control (7 years instead of 6).  In the case of Bryant, the Cubs get an additional year of control.  They pushed his free agency off a year.

 

The second deadline, usually about mid June takes the one additional year and makes it an arbitration year instead of a rookie year. 

 

Promote before second deadline, 500k, 500k, 500k, arb 1, arb 2, arb 3, arb 4.

 

Promote after second deadline, 500k, 500k, 500k, 500k, arb 1, arb 2, arb 3.

 

Swapping a fourth year of arbitration for a $500K deal could be $10M. Plouffe is near $5M now I think in arb 2.  Ryan Howard was over $10M years ago.  Papelbon avoided arbitration one year at $12M.  Even if we want to extend him well prior to that, the what he could make without the extension would certainly be a negotiation point. 

Edited May 7, 2015 by tobi0040

[RedBull34]

 

Any extras? That's my birthday.

Right now no, but I'll let you know if somebody can't come!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The second deadline, usually about mid June takes the one additional year and makes it an arbitration year instead of a rookie year. 

 

Promote before second deadline, 500k, 500k, 500k, arb 1, arb 2, arb 3, arb 4.

 

Promote after second deadline, 500k, 500k, 500k, 500k, arb 1, arb 2, arb 3.

 

Swapping a fourth year of arbitration for a $500K deal could be $10M. Plouffe is near $5M now I think in arb 2.  Ryan Howard was over $10M years ago.  Papelbon avoided arbitration one year at $12M.  Even if we want to extend him well prior to that, the what he could make without the extension would certainly be a negotiation point. 

I don't think you can plan around a player being as good as quickly as Howard or Lincecum, though.  Howard and Lincecum were both older, more polished, immediate superstars, and had a lot more "obvious" value (HR, RBI, Cy Youngs, as opposed to speed and defense) than Buxton.  And as much as we love the comparable, I don't think we can plan on him being Trout 2.0 either.

 

I probably under-estimated it, but I'd still guess that $10 mil is the absolute top-end cost of Super-2, with something like $5 mil being the more likely cost (which would be reduced further by any buyout deal).  And with that, you can get two extra months of MLB contributions from the player too, and you still reserve the right to re-evaluate and demote the player if necessary, pausing the service time clock.

 

Injury would also be a factor that can reduce future earnings, and we know that Buxton and his style of play are not immune to that!  Which could reduce the above numbers a bit further.

 

Wil Myers and Gregory Polanco are a couple guys who came up after the Super 2 deadline recently, but the delay probably didn't gain their teams much of anything (although it probably didn't cost them much either).

[tobi0040]

 

I don't think you can plan around a player being as good as quickly as Howard or Lincecum, though.  Howard and Lincecum were both older, more polished, immediate superstars, and had a lot more "obvious" value (HR, RBI, Cy Youngs, as opposed to speed and defense) than Buxton.  And as much as we love the comparable, I don't think we can plan on him being Trout 2.0 either.

 

I probably under-estimated it, but I'd still guess that $10 mil is the absolute top-end cost of Super-2, with something like $5 mil being the more likely cost (which would be reduced further by any buyout deal).  And with that, you can get two extra months of MLB contributions from the player too, and you still reserve the right to re-evaluate and demote the player if necessary, pausing the service time clock.

 

Injury would also be a factor that can reduce future earnings, and we know that Buxton and his style of play are not immune to that!  Which could reduce the above numbers a bit further.

 

Wil Myers and Gregory Polanco are a couple guys who came up after the Super 2 deadline recently, but the delay probably didn't gain their teams much of anything (although it probably didn't cost them much either).

 

Agreed that you can't plan around a Howard or Trout like entrance to the big leagues (MVP's early on).  But if Trevor Plouffe is worth $4.8M in arb2, then I think Buxton could be worth $7-8M without setting the world on fire in arb4.  And I think if you are his agent that amount goes almost dollar for dollar to any extension they sign, along with the potential risk of him being north of $10M.

 

I guess you can put me in the camp that he is not up before the deadline. 

Edited May 7, 2015 by tobi0040

[Vanimal46]

Did the Twins wait until Mauer was at arbitration #4 year until we paid him $23 million a year?

[sane]

Byron Buxton now has SIX TRIPLES in 25 games at AA.  The MLB Twins triples leaders have ONE TRIPLE each.

[Monkeypaws]

I am very excited to see this young man continuing the tradition of Puckett and Hunter. Elite CFs are about my favorite kind of player.

[blairpaul715]

 

Did the Twins wait until Mauer was at arbitration #4 year until we paid him $23 million a year?

No that was Mauer's second contract, he was coming off a 4 yr deal. It was after his 3rd yr and he was up for Arb that they signed him to a 4 yr $33 million dollar deal. Then signed his extension in Feb 2010 for season 2011-18 at 23 million a yr.

Edited May 8, 2015 by blairpaul715

[ashbury]

Byron Buxton now has SIX TRIPLES in 25 games at AA.  The MLB Twins triples leaders have ONE TRIPLE each.

Send them down to AA to fatten up their numbers.

[jokin]

 

That's because they've already unloaded the rest of their players and bring up what's left.  Good or bad.

 

That's inaccurate..

[dxpavelka]

 

That's inaccurate..

That's incomplete.

 

[Vanimal46]

 

No that was Mauer's second contract, he was coming off a 4 yr deal. It was after his 3rd yr and he was up for Arb that they signed him to a 4 yr $33 million dollar deal. Then signed his extension in Feb 2010 for season 2011-18 at 23 million a yr.

 

Okay thanks for that. So I would assume they would go with the same approach with Buxton whenever they bring him up. Sign him for a 4 year smaller deal, then a much larger contract when he's 28-29 years old.

[kab21]

 

Buxton is tearing it up at Chattanooga.  I don't think he is going to be a minor league player for very much longer.  Forget projections, his glove and his speed is elite and major league right now.  Even if he comes up and stinks with the bat, because of the rest of his tools, I can't imagine him not being an improvement over what we have in center field right now.

 

All winter I've been listening to posters complain about the team not investing in a center fielder.  More and more I'm becoming convinced the team has believed they had one all along.

 

I'm really loving the way the team is starting to come together and a Buxton promotion would be the icing on the cake.

 

I don't think he will be promoted until the end of June or into July.  He is probably the best option in CF right now but prospect development is more important than getting Robinfer out of CF right now.  I think it's pretty important that Buxton gets a solid half season of hitting at AA so that he doesn't lose confidence right away since he had several months of recent success to fall back on.

 

I also think that the Twins didn't look to hard or invest too much into CF because Buxton was in their plans this season. 

[Linus]

I think the next move will be calling Hicks up to the Twins with Buxton going to Rochester and seeing what he can do there.  Wouldn't it be ironic if Hicks figures it out and we end up with two CFs after the years of nothing.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Having two CF is not a problem, in my opinion. Lots of options associated with that eventuality.

[gunnarthor]

 

I think the next move will be calling Hicks up to the Twins with Buxton going to Rochester and seeing what he can do there.  Wouldn't it be ironic if Hicks figures it out and we end up with two CFs after the years of nothing.

I would be so happy if that became a problem.

[twinsfan34]

For Buxton to be at all in consideration before Sept 1. 

 

1) Twins must keep winning and be in contention

2) He has to hit at least .320/.400/.5XX at AA/AAA

3) Schafer, Hicks, Robinson, Rosario, et al aren't that answer in CF

 

He's not on the 40-man roster. Twins would have to trade a 40-man guy or put him on waivers. Buxton hit well for 2 weeks at AA ball. Not even close to enough. 

[blairpaul715]

 

Okay thanks for that. So I would assume they would go with the same approach with Buxton whenever they bring him up. Sign him for a 4 year smaller deal, then a much larger contract when he's 28-29 years old.

I think more likely a Trout type of deal, after next yr sign him to a 6-8 yr deal in the neighborhood of  $25 Million per yr(end of contract age 28-30) and hope to sign to an extension with a yr or 2 left in the $35-40 million a yr range, that doesnt exceed his age 37 season. IMO

[tobi0040]

 

I think more likely a Trout type of deal, after next yr sign him to a 6-8 yr deal in the neighborhood of  $25 Million per yr(end of contract age 28-30) and hope to sign to an extension with a yr or 2 left in the $35-40 million a yr range, that doesnt exceed his age 37 season. IMO

 

Buxton would be under control for the next 7 years, thru age 28.  We will owe him $2M for the first four years combined ($500K each), then worst case about $30M total for the next three.

 

I calculate him being owed $32M over the next seven years.

 

The Twins will either get Buxton, and Sano for that matter to take a long term deal at a discount (and overpay in the beginning) or trade them.  I don't see the Twins handing either an 8-10 year deal in the $35-$40M range per season.  Especially if they are buying years primarily in their 30's.  I don't think that approach makes much sense.

Edited May 11, 2015 by tobi0040

[blairpaul715]

 

Buxton would be under control for the next 7 years, thru age 28.  We will owe him $2M for the first four years combined ($500K each), then worst case about $30M total for the next three.

 

I calculate him being owed $32M over the next seven years.

 

The Twins will either get Buxton, and Sano for that matter to take a long term deal at a discount (and overpay in the beginning) or trade them.  I don't see the Twins handing either an 8-10 year deal in the $35-$40M range per season.  Especially if they are buying years primarily in their 30's.  I don't think that approach makes much sense.

You are right, I was just trying to go by memory, but i looked it up.......I thought that the Angels had signed Trout pre arb, but they didnt, so I would hope we go about it the same with Buxton, sign to contract for a yr or two in FA yrs and then hope to extend with 2 or more yrs to go when you know what he is.