Article: According To Plan

[Boom Boom]

If you aren't calling up an Elite prospect by July.....I can't see burning a year of control to get him a sniff. IMO, he's either up before August, or it's another year.

If they call him up after rosters expand on Sept. 1, it would not burn an option.

 

That said, I don't think the Twins should be all that concerned about Buxton's option since he'll very likely get an MLB contract before all his options are used up.

[Mike Sixel]

Not options, years of cost control.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I don't know. It seems to me the plan is pretty self-evident.

 

OK, let's take a look then:

 

"1. Pick up some guys to keep the beer and hot dogs selling (you can agree or disagree if these were the guys you wanted, but they were purchased)."

 

This would be a marketing strategy, not a plan to win. Since winning is what leads to increased attendance, that would be a rather horrible plan, considering the fact that guys like Stauffer and Santana have zero impact on "beer and hot dogs" being sold.

 

"2. Watch the development of the minors for some mid to late-season calls ups."

 

All teams do this every year, it's not a "plan" anymore than the Twins "plan" to play 162 games.

 

"3. Tread water near .500."

 

That is a hope/wish, not a plan.

 

"4. Likely be out of the playoff hunt, and if all goes okay, trade Milone, Hunter, Stauffer, Boyer, and any other marginal player, if possible."

 

If they are near .500, would they be out of the hunt? That doesn't make sense. But also, none of those guys have trade value, so that would be a bad plan regardless.

 

"5. September: Call up youth (keep the hot dogs and beer selling even though the season is over)."

 

All teams do this every year. 

 

"6. 2016: Sell hope for the future."

 

The Twins marketing dept. has been doing this for years. Unfortunately, only wins can get the job done.

 

 

Edited May 4, 2015 by drivlikejehu

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If they call him up after rosters expand on Sept. 1, it would not burn an option.

They can call him up at any time and not burn an option.  They only burn an option in 2015 if they call him up, then send him back to the minors for 20 or more days during the remainder of this season.

 

So yeah, you don't want to call him up now as a 15 day injury replacement, unless you really think he could stick.  But by July, you probably don't have to be too concerned with burning an option, even if you think you might send him back down for the last few weeks of the minor league season.

 

And yeah, option years generally aren't too critical for elite prospects.  If you really need to demote Buxton to AAA three years from now, the lack of that option year is probably the least of your concerns about him.

[whydidnt]

I think it's far too easy to be blinded by short term results. After the 1st week of the year, everyone was convinced the Twins were going to lose 100 games. Now, they have a great week and people are talking playoffs. I don't think either scenario fits with how this team is currently built. I think it's pretty easy to look at the Twins results the last couple of years, compare those rosters to the current team and see how this team is pretty comparable. I just don't see enough different to convince myself that by the end of the year they are going to finish with a markedly different record. They'll have some hot streaks and some cold streaks, but in the end are going to end up around 90 losses.  

 

The only possible reason things might be different is the change in managers. Gardenhire's teams seemed to really tank in the 2nd half if things weren't going well. I suspect Molitor will have a different outlook on things.

[Mike Sixel]

 

They can call him up at any time and not burn an option.  They only burn an option in 2015 if they call him up, then send him back to the minors for 20 or more days during the remainder of this season.

 

So yeah, you don't want to call him up now as a 15 day injury replacement, unless you really think he could stick.  But by July, you probably don't have to be too concerned with burning an option, even if you think you might send him back down for the last few weeks of the minor league season.

 

And yeah, option years generally aren't too critical for elite prospects.  If you really need to demote Buxton to AAA three years from now, the lack of that option year is probably the least of your concerns about him.

 

Again, not about options....years of cost control....are you going to burn one for a month? I wouldn't.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think it's far too easy to be blinded by short term results. After the 1st week of the year, everyone was convinced the Twins were going to lose 100 games. Now, they have a great week and people are talking playoffs. I don't think either scenario fits with how this team is currently built. I think it's pretty easy to look at the Twins results the last couple of years, compare those rosters to the current team and see how this team is pretty comparable. I just don't see enough different to convince myself that by the end of the year they are going to finish with a markedly different record. They'll have some hot streaks and some cold streaks, but in the end are going to end up around 90 losses.  

 

The only possible reason things might be different is the change in managers. Gardenhire's teams seemed to really tank in the 2nd half if things weren't going well. I suspect Molitor will have a different outlook on things.

 

I'd say getting Santana back is likely to help them not totally fade in the 2nd half.....or maybe having some options of guys to bring up from the minors that are MUCH better than the options the last two years (of course, they'd actually have to call them up, which they seem oddly averse to doing).

[stringer bell]

The discussion here about recalling Buxton is actually about three different factors: 1) "Burning an option". Buxton is currently not on the 40-man. If he were recalled and then sent to the minors, it would be one of his option years.  I doubt this would even be a thought at this time.  I believe the thought is that Buxton will be promoted when he is ready and when he gets here, he will be the Twins center fielder for 6+ years at least.  2)  "A year of control".  Nope.  We've already passed the threshold for any player coming up from the minors getting a full year of service.  Kris Bryant was recalled after that deadline so that the Cubs could get almost seven full seasons out of him before he could be eligible to be a free agent.  3) Year of cost control.  Yes, if Buxton were recalled before the All-Star break, it is possible that he would be eligible to be a "Super 2" and making him arbitration eligible after less than three full seasons.  This would make every contract he signs with the Twins more expensive.  It wouldn't effect how long Buxton was h

 

If a prospect with this pedigree is ready, he should be recalled.  After seeing Buxton in the spring and watching his number in Chattanooga, I thought he wouldn't be ready 'til September at the earliest.  His numbers have improved dramatically and maybe the rust is off.  I hope so.

[Vanimal46]

 

I'd say getting Santana back is likely to help them not totally fade in the 2nd half.....or maybe having some options of guys to bring up from the minors that are MUCH better than the options the last two years (of course, they'd actually have to call them up, which they seem oddly averse to doing).

 

To make a point on Santana, sure he could come help out in the 2nd half of this season. More realistically I would think he's going to be very inconsistent. He's going to have some rust after not pitching for half a year recovering from not injesting/injecting PED's, right? Or does that logic only apply to Buxton & Sano working off the rust mentioned in earlier threads?

[markos]

 

 2)  "A year of control".  Nope.  We've already passed the threshold for any player coming up from the minors getting a full year of service.  Kris Bryant was recalled after that deadline so that the Cubs could get almost seven full seasons out of him before he could be eligible to be a free agent.  

We've passed the threshold for this season, but I think discussion was more about waiting until next season. If Buxton is called up anytime between now and next April 14th (or so) he will under team control until after the 2021 season. However, if he is kept in the minors until after next April 14th (or so), he will be under team control until 2022. So as this season keeps moving along, it makes less and less sense to call him up (from the standpoint of maximizing team control). At a certain point (maybe August?) I'm not certain it makes sense to call him up to finish out the season in the majors. 

[Shane Wahl]

I probably don't want Super 2 status, but that won't happen if they chill out until August (dear god trade Hunter). Maybe Hicks, Pinto, and Meyer are already up, and then August brings Sano, Buxton, and Rosario (the first two get a month of AAA time). Of course that isn't going to happen if the Twins are like 60 and 60 and in the hunt. 

[Mike Sixel]

Correct, Markos.

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

OK, let's take a look then:

 

 

 

I think we are on related regions of the argument here.

 

I'm not sold that they really had a "plan to win" as in a plan to make it to the playoffs this year at all. I think they had a plan to be competitive by signing a few pieces and if everything breaks right (and I mean everything), they make the playoffs or get close (it may very well be the same plan every team that has a marginally-talented roster takes). If everything goes according to "the plan", they stay competitive, make a profit, and keep people interested (or even more interested based on what is to come) for the next season.

 

Essentially, I believe the marketing strategy is a piece of the plan with player acquisition, talent development, etc. Even though they've been beating the drum for four years of bad baseball, one decent year saves a lot of jobs and interest.

 

Also, I wouldn't be too quick to assign trade value on players in May. While I tend to agree with your thoughts on their value now....miracles do happen....

[gocgo]

Pleasantly surprised to be above .500.  After the first week, I didn't expect this, but the White Sox are just what we needed.  It brings a smile to my face to know that our expectations to this point were low and have been exceeded while their expectations were sky high and have been dashed.  As long as the Sox are under us in the standings, I'm pretty happy.

[twinsnorth49]

Rosario called up, I like that part of the plan.

[Jham]

I will say this, we've been fooled a hundred times over the years by spring training warriors and September call-ups who light it up when the games mean nothing.  Experiencing winning and dealing with pressure has to be part of any learning curve.  

But not every player is ready for the failures that inevitably come with a major league promotion.  It seems like most of us agree that young players are going to cost you some games.  No one likes to feel like they lost a game for the whole team and about a state's worth of fans.  There is value to allowing prospects to come up and follow in the footsteps of some veterans without feeling like they let everyone down if they boot a ball or strike out.  

Look how the shortcomings of Hicks, Florimon, Nishioka, and to a lesser extent Parmalee were magnified because we had to depend on them to play every day.  They became local punching bags and had no where to hide because we had no one else.  

 

Sitting for a couple days has seemed to help Vargas, Arcia, and Santana this year.  Could we have done that and kept winning if we didn't have Nunez, Hunter, or Shane Robinson on the team?  

Our young guys are getting experience, our veterans are playing well, our team is winning, and we're still complaining?  Really?  I think this is ideal.  We aren't forced to bring guys up who aren't ready.  We're (so far) winning games while allowing our young players to rest when they get overwhelmed.  Learning to win brings us closer to the goal than learning to hold on to a roster spot.  Find a way to help the team (IE take a walk instead of trying for a HR, make the routine play in the field even if you just struck out) even if you're struggling.  That's called being a professional.  That's what we're instilling.

And to those who don't think our success is sustainable, I would ask this: Who is vastly outperforming expectations at this point?  Robinson?  Pelfrey?  Maybe Plouffe after his awful start?  Can we really call Gibson or May's success unexpected?  Our biggest weakness is the pen, which happens to be the easiest/cheapest area to address via trade or waiver. 

If Buxton provides any sort of upgrade in CF, and E. Santana comes back at his career average, I can't imagine we'll be any worse than we are now, and we have a significant chance to be better. I hope that turns out, and I think that is and should be the goal.

 

I VEHEMENTLY disagree with any notion that having Vargas, Arcia, Santana, Gibson, May, Graham, and probably Pinto, Meyer, and Buxton experience a major league pennant chase will somehow stunt the development of the team going to next year.  Then we can supplement with guys like Sano, Rosario, Berrios, and Burdi to a team that has already shown an ability to compete.  Funny, I see that as progress.  I guess I just don't get it.

 

[spinowner]

 

I VEHEMENTLY disagree with any notion that having Vargas, Arcia, Santana, Gibson, May, Graham, and probably Pinto, Meyer, and Buxton experience a major league pennant chase will somehow stunt the development of the team going to next year.  Then we can supplement with guys like Sano, Rosario, Berrios, and Burdi to a team that has already shown an ability to compete.  Funny, I see that as progress.  I guess I just don't get it.

What is best for a player's development is to face competition at or slightly above his current level and to play as many games as possible. If that happens to be in the majors, then that's where he should be, but at this stage of the rebuilding program player development should trump any attempts at improving the team's 2015 win-loss record. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think this is about when Trout was promoted.......

Maybe to AAA but he didn't make his MLB debut until July.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Maybe to AAA but he didn't make his MLB debut until July.

 

Correct, I remembered it wrong.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Trout was promoted about this time in 2012, BUT he had already appeared in MLB in 2011.  As Brock said, his initial promotion was direct from AA on July 8.

[whydidnt]

The apt comparison is to Trout in 2011. When the Angels called him up in July, 2011, he had about 1/2 season of AA under his belt, which is where Buxton will be then. FWIW, Trout wasn't really very good that first time up in the majors. They sent him down after a couple of weeks, and then recalled him later in the year. He was okay then, but not really a difference maker. I think it would be realistic that is about the best we could hope for out of Buxton this year. Of course, just his glove alone in CF might be a huge boost, but really I think the Twins are smart to let the entire body of work develop as much as possible, without hampering it by holding him back when the time comes. 

[Jham]

 

What is best for a player's development is to face competition at or slightly above his current level and to play as many games as possible. If that happens to be in the majors, then that's where he should be, but at this stage of the rebuilding program player development should trump any attempts at improving the team's 2015 win-loss record. 

 

I somewhat agree.  I think expectations need to be realistic.  I just don't think May 4th is the time to be declaring that we don't care about winning when we're playing well and in the hunt.  I think our young players are getting valuable experience.  Winning is not only more fun, it is also motivating.  I think it gets guys to play harder and practice harder.  The Lookouts seem to have phenomenal chemistry.  Winning together has almost certainly furthered their development.  Winning allows the flexibility to bring guys up when they are ready as opposed to throwing prospects against the wall and seeing who sticks.  Yes, sacrificing player development for a couple more wins is probably not the play.  I just don't believe player development requires losing on a big league squad with no chance night in and night out.  When players need more development, we typically send them down to the minors, not promote them to the majors.

[Paul Pleiss]

 

I disagree with the premise of the opening post. The blueprint this year is to continue rebuilding this team for 2016 and beyond. What would make things interesting in the final months of this season has nothing to do with the team's win-loss record. It would be seeing continuing improvement by our best young prospects.

If this team keeps "building for next year" year after year, they'll never get anywhere. At some point they need to start building for now. And I think the team is at that point. They have to start adding major league talent to go with the young guys on the horizon.

[ashbury]

... start building for now. ...  young guys on the horizon.

Or, if they're still on the horizon, it's still not quite the time yet.