If LA takes another first round exit, Mattingly might be let go. Yes, Gardy's postseason record is a red flag, but given the SSS nature of most baseball analysis these days, a poor postseason record can be easily explained. 

 

Postseason performance is important so we've fired our manager. However, postseason performance doesn't really mean much, so we've hired this guy who was even worse at it.

 

I want this to happen.

In a situation like Los Angeles or New York, you need a babysitter as much as anything, which is why Joe Torre looks the role of genius and, lo and behold, was fairly mediocre everywhere outside of pinstripes that he managed.

 

Gardenhire will become one of the "recycled white guys" that take jobs.  There are basically two camps in hires right now - offer a former player his first gig at the MLB level or recycle old white guys.  Lately the openings were with organizations who jumped at the first group, guys like Brad Ausmus, Matt Williams, Paul Molitor, Kevin Cash, Don Mattingly, Mike Redmond, and now Craig Counsell.  There was a wave before that that included your recycled white guys like Ned Yost, Bob Melvin, Bruce Bochy, Terry Francona, etc. I'm not sure why hiring someone you mold through your organization through minor league managing has gone away, but it does seem to have gone the way of the quality baseball broadcaster.

Postseason performance is important so we've fired our manager. However, postseason performance doesn't really mean much, so we've hired this guy who was even worse at it.

 

I want this to happen.

Not as contradictory as it sounds. The same people who argue for the significance of SSS in evaluating postseason performance are not the same people who downplay the significance of SSS in postseason performance. (With the usual "lots of people in the middle.")

 

There are a lot of big market teams making early playoff exits like Gardy did, but Gardy's agent will argue that the Twins didn't have the firepower of these bigger teams. Which is anywhere from partly correct to completely correct, depending on your POV.

 

Another thing to think about is that a typical manager contract is 3 years. Yet Twins fans probably think of manager gigs as lifetime appointments and think "no way" Gardy will be offered that anywhere else. And of course he won't. But I definitely see a 3 year deal in his future.

 

There are a lot of big market teams making early playoff exits like Gardy did, but Gardy's agent will argue that the Twins didn't have the firepower of these bigger teams.

Teams generally don't argue with potential hires over their worthiness.

 

Veteran teams looking to put it all together and get to the big dance are going to hire a star manager (past examples like Larussa, Leyland, Francona) or a young untested guy who at least theoretically has a chance to become a star (Ausmus, Matheny, Matt Williams, etc.).

 

I would be shocked if the Detroit Tigers hired Ron Gardenhire to manage in the next few years, or even Cleveland (not to mention the more notable large markets). I might be shocked if anyone hired him to manage without a stint as a coach or advisor or something.

 

Teams generally don't argue with potential hires over their worthiness.

 

Veteran teams looking to put it all together and get to the big dance are going to hire a star manager (past examples like Larussa, Leyland, Francona) or a young untested guy who at least theoretically has a chance to become a star (Ausmus, Matheny, Matt Williams, etc.).

 

I would be shocked if the Detroit Tigers hired Ron Gardenhire to manage in the next few years, or even Cleveland (not to mention the more notable large markets). I might be shocked if anyone hired him to manage without a stint as a coach or advisor or something.

First of all, are we debating a technical point on the same side, or are you arguing the other side that teams won't view Gardy as qualified to manage again?    

 

Some have been saying that Gardy has a much better reputation nationally than locally. I agree with that completely.

 

I did a quick review. Unless a team is grooming their own internal candidate, I think Gardy is the most appealing guy available, and I don't think it's close. Leyland and Larussa are done managing. Davey Johnson has declared he's done. Dusty Baker is done. Other guys like Ozzie, Valentine, Ron Washington have some pretty heavy baggage. Guys like Manny Acta and Kirk Gibson never really got any traction. And so on.