Santana's Defense

[stringer bell]

Danny Santana committed his seventh and eighth errors on Friday.  We all know that errors aren't the best measure of defense, but anyone who makes a lot of errors can't be a good defender.  In about 100 games, Eduardo Escobar committed five errors for the entire season at shortstop.

 

Santana can't continue making errors at the rate he committed them this month, obviously.  I suspect that if he stays at short, he will make more errors than any Major League shortstop.  It takes a lot out-of-zone plays to make up for the plays he should have made. Having a strong arm and good range does not automatically made a player a good defender.

 

[zchrz]

The defense was his big question mark in the minors, and then they played him in center for half a year, so I have no problem giving him ample time to figure things out.  He might not be able to stick at short in the long run but give him every opportunity to do so because there isn't really any other place to play him.

[jokin]

 

Danny Santana committed his seventh and eighth errors on Friday.  We all know that errors aren't the best measure of defense, but anyone who makes a lot of errors can't be a good defender.  In about 100 games, Eduardo Escobar committed five errors for the entire season at shortstop.

 

Santana can't continue making errors at the rate he committed them this month, obviously.  I suspect that if he stays at short, he will make more errors than any Major League shortstop.  It takes a lot out-of-zone plays to make up for the plays he should have made. Having a strong arm and good range does not automatically made a player a good defender.

 

Just say it, if you mean it.   Are you calling for Escobar to take over at short?   (Esco had his own flub in LF tonight).   If so, are you calling for Santana to be sent down, or sent out to CF?   His bat has been gradually coming to life after his 0-12 start to the season-   .924 OPS in his last 5 games before tonight. 

 

What I'm saying, is that there are going to be tradeoffs during this apprenticeship/trial period, and the Twins have to find out if Santana is a long/intermediate-term answer at SS.

[Kwak]

 

Just say it, if you mean it.   Are you calling for Escobar to take over at short?   (Esco had his own flub in LF tonight).   If so, are you calling for Santana to be sent down, or sent out to CF?   His bat has been gradually coming to life after his 0-12 start to the season-   .924 OPS in his last 5 games before tonight. 

 

What I'm saying, is that there are going to be tradeoffs during this apprenticeship/trial period, and the Twins have to find out if Santana is a long/intermediate-term answer at SS.

He did say it.  It is no secret that there are FO personnel that are huge Escobar at SS proponents.  Or, that a TD thread was created to advocate said change.  Everyone post away! 

Is it better to settle for a "reached his potential" Escobar or to play Santana and see if he can truly be a SS of the future?

[Seth Stohs]

Getting this out of the way - Yes, I think that Eduardo Escobar deserves to be the starting shortstop baed on his age and his performance. 

 

That said, I get that the organization (and Molitor in particular) believe that Santana can be a very good shortstop, including defensively. That said, anyone who followed his minor league career here (or earlier at SethSpeaks.net) knows that this is what you get. He's got the flashy tools, the good range and the very strong arm, but consistency has never been in the cards for him. 

 

But it needs to play out longer. I'd be happy if he can stay under 35 errors for the year. 

[Linus]

I can see why the Twins want to give him a chance.  He's athletic, great range and about the strongest arm at SS that you will find.  Its not common to find guys with true shortstop tools and he has them.

 

I don't believe that Polanco sticks at SS so it really is important for the Twins to find out if he can succeed for the next 6years.

[Platoon]

Escobar at short is like Santana in CF. Neither are the future at those positions. Santana will not be an elite defender in CF with or without Buxton. But "could" be at SS. That doesn't mean he will be. Escobar is a decent fielder but doesn't have elite tools, in either the IF or OF. This is the time to roll the dice on Santana. Putting Escobar back ther is short sighted, and falls into the delusional contender trap. A side note on errors. Santana got an error the other night on a difficult shot to his left, and Plouffe almost got hit on the head with a pop up and they gave the guy a hit. Until they insulate the official scorers, this will continue to happen.

[drivlikejehu]

I was against playing Santana in CF last year for this very reason... the Twins are trying to take a step forward, and their inconsistent SS missed out on crucial development time at the position. It was very short-sighted, and obviously so at the time.

 

Still, it's not like there is really a better SS option than Santana right now. Escobar isn't very good and has no upside. 

[Paul Pleiss]

10 errors in this young season, plus a lot of balls (especially up the middle) that he just isn't getting to. He looks bad out there and the defensive metrics agree.

 

I agree with Seth, I think Eduardo Escobar should be the everyday SS. Santana's questionmark through the system was always his defense. So now we're watching that play out. If he hasn't figured it out by the all star break (and tha seems so very far away, despite All-Star balloting opening this week), then he should be sent down to AAA (if the bat hasn't come arond) or put back in CF to keep the position warm until Buxton or someone else takes it from him.

[Blake]

A couple of years ago, I cringed every time a ball was hit to Trevor Plouffe. 

 

Now, Plouffe is not only making the plays he should, but he's making a few very good plays. In other words, Plouffe has turned into a solid third base. A position the Twins have had trouble with for the last few years.

 

Brian Dozier wasn't good at SS and was moved to Second Base, which had been another black hole for the Twins. Enough said.

 

Escobar isn't the future and, based on the results of Dozier and Plouffe, maybe cut the organization some slack in regards to Santana. 

[stringer bell]

To answer my friend Jokin, I am not calling for Escobar to take over shortstop yet.  Since observing Santana in Spring Training of 2014, I have been concerned about his defense.  His performance this spring has borne out my concerns.  As everyone has noted, he has the tools to be very good.  He has never sustained anything resembling good defense at shortstop.  IMHO, 35 errors is too many and if that is the norm for regular shortstop Danny Santana, then they need to look for a better alternative.

 

I think Santana will hit.  He has quick hands, excellent speed and some power.  He needs to develop some selectivity (zero walks so far), but he provides something positive for the Twins' offense.  A team with so few strikeouts and a poor outfield defense can't really afford to carry a bottom quartile shortstop.  Since Santana has the tools to be better, the team needs to see if he can develop consistency and focus to take advantage of his fine tools.

[stringer bell]

 

 

A couple of years ago, I cringed every time a ball was hit to Trevor Plouffe. 

 

Now, Plouffe is not only making the plays he should, but he's making a few very good plays. In other words, Plouffe has turned into a solid third base. A position the Twins have had trouble with for the last few years.

 

Brian Dozier wasn't good at SS and was moved to Second Base, which had been another black hole for the Twins. Enough said.

 

Escobar isn't the future and, based on the results of Dozier and Plouffe, maybe cut the organization some slack in regards to Santana. 

Good points.  The thing on Plouffe and Dozier is that they moved away from the more demanding position of shortstop to thrive elsewhere, Dozier immediately and Plouffe after a couple seasons.  Does Danny need to move to another position or become a Toni Phillips-type utility guy?  We shall see.

[Shane Wahl]

Santana 2015 OPS = .540

Escobar 2015 OPS = .475

 

Are people around here generally just ignoring the fact that Escobar has been terrible at the plate this year?

[Thegrin]

The Twins must have decided that Santana would be a better long term option at SS than Polanco. Therefore, this year is Santana's year to make mistakes.  The payoff will be in the 2nd half of the season and beyond (assuming he hits).  

[Shane Wahl]

Between the two of them: ZERO walks and 40 strikeouts. 

Jorge Polanco has started out the season improving in AA from his short time in AA last year.

[Blake]

 

Good points.  The thing on Plouffe and Dozier is that they moved away from the more demanding position of shortstop to thrive elsewhere, Dozier immediately and Plouffe after a couple seasons.  Does Danny need to move to another position or become a Toni Phillips-type utility guy?  We shall see.

I can cut the Twins some slack regarding the infield, because of Plouffe and Dozier.

 

The outfield, though? Uggh.

[Thrylos]

 

Getting this out of the way - Yes, I think that Eduardo Escobar deserves to be the starting shortstop baed on his age and his performance. 

 

That said, I get that the organization (and Molitor in particular) believe that Santana can be a very good shortstop, including defensively. That said, anyone who followed his minor league career here (or earlier at SethSpeaks.net) knows that this is what you get. He's got the flashy tools, the good range and the very strong arm, but consistency has never been in the cards for him. 

 

But it needs to play out longer. I'd be happy if he can stay under 35 errors for the year. 

 

Scary.  I agree (almost completely) with Seth.   I always have pegged Santana as a likely utility type of player, because of lapses on both sides of the ball.  I ranked him 30th in my 2014 prospect list before last season, and said:

 

His presence on the Twins 40 man roster (added last off-season to protect him from the Rule 5 draft) is more of an indication of the system depth in middle infield in higher levels, than his major-league readiness at age 22.   Santana will likely begin his age 23 season as Rochester's starting SS, pending Jason Barlett's future with the Twins.  With work on plate discipline and pitch recognition and on making the easy plays on defense, Santana can be a starting MLB SS or at worse a utility player

 

His play this season is not news to a lot of us who have been following him.  His play last season was.  And he did not have a chance to get exposed with the glove at SS.

 

I agree that Escobar should be the starting SS this season and keep the place warm for Polanco.  Escobar is a better SS and a better hitter than Santana.  Where I disagree with Seth, is that Santana should be given a longer leash.  His abilities are like Christian Gusman and Lexi Casilla.  Very similar players on both sides of the ball. Santana (and those other two) should not be the starting SS in a competitive team.

[Halsey Hall]

Early this spring I mentioned to a buddy in Ft Myers I was glad to see Santana have the year he did last year.  He replied don't you remember 2 years ago saying he'd never make the bigs (right after an error) because of his defense.  Yup, I remember, and it doesn't look like he's improved.  Just a shame, I hope he can improve a little anyway.  I like his short swing and what he can do on the bases.

[goulik]

For the last couple years we have been getting for ready for 2016. Its 2015, we are still getting ready so bear with the pain. We are one game under 500? I'm ok with that.

 

I want a winning team but you have to go through growing pains and this year we seem to actually be going through those growing pains. Sophomores are regressing, there are young players not fully adjusted to the majors and rotations are being shuffled. We see the light at the end of the tunnel finally but were going to have to be patient with the Santana's, Vargas, Arcia's of the world. We will do the same next year with Buxton, Sano, and Meyer coming up later this year and probably struggling some at times next year.

 

All I want to see is Month by Month stats improving for Santana.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Scary.  I agree (almost completely) with Seth.   I always have pegged Santana as a likely utility type of player, because of lapses on both sides of the ball.  I ranked him 30th in my 2014 prospect list before last season, and said:

 

His presence on the Twins 40 man roster (added last off-season to protect him from the Rule 5 draft) is more of an indication of the system depth in middle infield in higher levels, than his major-league readiness at age 22.   Santana will likely begin his age 23 season as Rochester's starting SS, pending Jason Barlett's future with the Twins.  With work on plate discipline and pitch recognition and on making the easy plays on defense, Santana can be a starting MLB SS or at worse a utility player

 

His play this season is not news to a lot of us who have been following him.  His play last season was.  And he did not have a chance to get exposed with the glove at SS.

 

I agree that Escobar should be the starting SS this season and keep the place warm for Polanco.  Escobar is a better SS and a better hitter than Santana.  Where I disagree with Seth, is that Santana should be given a longer leash.  His abilities are like Christian Gusman and Lexi Casilla.  Very similar players on both sides of the ball. Santana (and those other two) should not be the starting SS in a competitive team.

 

Yes, I think last year was the first year that I moved him from the 20-25 range to about 15. He still always had breakout potential, but of course he still needs time defensively at short. He didn't get that last year. 

 

Pedro Florimon (defensively) struggled for awhile in a similar way until he played more and worked on making the fundamental plays. I say let Santana play this out, at least until the end of May.

 

And again, are you ignoring (as others clearly are) that Escobar has been even worse than Santana at the plate this year? People around here keep talking about Escobar deserving to play every day . . . and it doesn't make sense with that .475 OPS.

[jorgenswest]

Yes, I think last year was the first year that I moved him from the 20-25 range to about 15. He still always had breakout potential, but of course he still needs time defensively at short. He didn't get that last year. 

 

Pedro Florimon (defensively) struggled for awhile in a similar way until he played more and worked on making the fundamental plays. I say let Santana play this out, at least until the end of May.

 

And again, are you ignoring (as others clearly are) that Escobar has been even worse than Santana at the plate this year? People around here keep talking about Escobar deserving to play every day . . . and it doesn't make sense with that .475 OPS.

You must realize that his data in the sample this year is not predictive of how he will perform the rest of the year. I sure hope the Twins aren't making decisions based on that data. At Escobar's playing time rate, it will take until mid June for walk and strike out numbers to be meaningful. The triple slash number will take a season or more at this rate of playing time.

 

I do agree that once the Twins decided to give Santana the starting SS job, they need to give him a long look. I would give him half a season and longer if progress is evident.

[jokin]

 

He did say it.  It is no secret that there are FO personnel that are huge Escobar at SS proponents.  Or, that a TD thread was created to advocate said change.  Everyone post away! 

Is it better to settle for a "reached his potential" Escobar or to play Santana and see if he can truly be a SS of the future?

Oops, I guess he didn't say it:

To answer my friend Jokin, I am not calling for Escobar to take over shortstop yet.  Since observing Santana in Spring Training of 2014, I have been concerned about his defense.  His performance this spring has borne out my concerns.  As everyone has noted, he has the tools to be very good.  He has never sustained anything resembling good defense at shortstop.  IMHO, 35 errors is too many and if that is the norm for regular shortstop Danny Santana, then they need to look for a better alternative.

 

I think Santana will hit.  He has quick hands, excellent speed and some power.  He needs to develop some selectivity (zero walks so far), but he provides something positive for the Twins' offense.  A team with so few strikeouts and a poor outfield defense can't really afford to carry a bottom quartile shortstop.  Since Santana has the tools to be better, the team needs to see if he can develop consistency and focus to take advantage of his fine tools.

 

I am mostly in agreement with this- and the Twins need at least a half-year leash to see if Santana can make improvements in terms of better consistency with the routine plays.  And with his potential with the bat, a Starlin Castro-like hit-first/sometimes-WTH?-on-defense SS might play a lot better with Buxton in CF and Rosario in LF.

 

Largely through the Twins bungling of the CF situation and mis-assessment of Florimon's value as a major league SS, Santana was thrust into playing out of position, costing development time for him and putting off valuable evaluation time for the Twins in discerning if Santana can be the answer at SS.

 

I'm not certain if anything is gained   at   this time by throwing Escobar back at SS- in a throw-away season (short of show-casing him for a prospective deal).

[Willihammer]

I sat in the 129 bleachers last night, right behind Santana. Ramirez's ball in the 4th was a scalded buzzer on the ground hit to Santana's backhand side. His error appeared to be lifting the glove as if he anticipated the ball to hop at the last second (it didn't). The Ramirez ball in the 6th was hit at a similar angle only slow just slow enough that Santana opted to field from his forehand side and his throw sailed as a result of the rush in re-positioning himself. Its a tiny sample to judge from but both errors appeared to result from a lack of confidence in his backhand.

[Paul Pleiss]

Guys, good news, I've got the solution.

 

Just keep waiting. It won't be this year. But maybe it'll be next year. Or surely the year after that. Or at the worst four years from now. And hey, maybe Santana never figures it out, but there's this whole system full of PROSPECTS!!!! Woo!!!!

 

20Something here we come!

 

I'm tired of waiting.

[mickeymental]

speaking of knowing whether or not to give up on someone, 28-year-old pedro florimon has a .786 ops and 0 errors at pittsburgh's indianapolis aaa affiliate ...

[h2oface]

I like Santana at short still. I hate the errors, but I like giving him an extended opportunity. I mean, it is not like he is even the biggest problem to worry about on this team.

 

Do folks really feel that they can "see" things better when they are at the game viewing from the stands than on the close ups and slow motion of TV coverage? I certainly can't, even if I am on the rail at field level.

 

It is nice to hear that Florimon is learning to hit some in AAA. At 28, I would hope so. I see Pittsburgh is so impressed that he is not on the Pirates, but hanging around for replacement duty if needed.

[Shane Wahl]

 

You must realize that his data in the sample this year is not predictive of how he will perform the rest of the year. I sure hope the Twins aren't making decisions based on that data. At Escobar's playing time rate, it will take until mid June for walk and strike out numbers to be meaningful. The triple slash number will take a season or more at this rate of playing time.

I do agree that once the Twins decided to give Santana the starting SS job, they need to give him a long look. I would give him half a season and longer if progress is evident.

 

And the exact same can be said for Santana. It is not like the full minor league history sets them apart offensively either.

[Willihammer]

Do folks really feel that they can "see" things better when they are at the game viewing from the stands than on the close ups and slow motion of TV coverage?

No not most things but from the 2nd row of 129 you're almost directly in line with the plate and the SS. It gives you a vantage point almost the same as the fielder and you could see how balls were hopping on the left side, and the fielders reactions to those hops, which I don't think you get from the elevated angle of most cameras or from the dugout cameras on the side, although they give you better perspectives on other things.

[JB_Iowa]

Ryan's thoughts on Santana's D:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/05/02/twinsights-concentration-factor-holding-back-danny-santana-in-the-field/

 

 

“I think it’s the concentration factor,” Ryan said. “He needs to finish plays. Some of those are plays he certainly can and will and has made. At that position, it’s vital that he finish plays.”

[gil4]

 

Santana 2015 OPS = .540

Escobar 2015 OPS = .475

 

Are people around here generally just ignoring the fact that Escobar has been terrible at the plate this year?

They have both been bad at the plate, but we chalk that up to SSS.  We have a larger sample size (several years worth) of Santana struggling to make routine plays at SS.  Also, Escobar's struggles at the plate might be due in part to inconsistent ABs and being jerked all over the place in the field.
 

Escobar was about average both with the bat and in the field, and it wasn't a huge surprise.  Santana's defense at SS has been pretty bad, and that hasn't been a huge surprise, either.