Article: Can Kennys Vargas Make The Adjustment?

[Parker Hageman]

There is no denying the fact that Kennys Vargas has been mired in an extended slump.

 

The Twins watched as their designated hitter swung like he was in quicksand in Seattle, making the situation worse with every swing. For the next two games he sat. The starting lineup time-out was intended to recalibrate and get him to realize that he needed to refocus on his mechanics. Collect, gather and go.

 

As the smoke cleared after Thursday night’s 12-2 drubbing of the Chicago White Sox, the only Twins hitter in the lineup to not reach base or score was Kennys Vargas. He struck out twice.When he takes a cut, everyone in a three block radius of the ballpark can feel it as the wind changes direction on the plaza. And it is not just dirty breaking balls that have been giving Vargas fits. He is swinging through fastballs in the zone regularly as well. For instance, last year he missed a fastball 17% of the time when he offered. This year that has ballooned to 32% of his swings. Only seven other hitters this season have a higher rate than Vargas.

 

Trevor Plouffe, who battled through his own adjustments entering the league, recently discussed how the game of baseball is a progression for hitters. Pitchers will start a new player with fastballs in the four-spot of the strike zone and once they prove they can hit that pitch, they will start to pick at other weaknesses. For Vargas, that has been being pitches down in the zone and away. His need to hit the ball as hard as he can has resulted in empty swings or weak groundouts.

 

In spring training the coaching staff made it clear that Vargas should focus less on hitting for show during batting practice and work on driving the ball where it is pitched.

 

“I think that's a constant message we have with him and (Oswaldo) Arcia and some of the guys that have a tendency to want to have that home-run competition in BP, which doesn't mean a thing," Paul Molitor told reporters in March. "It's fun once in a while at the end of your rounds to go ahead and do some things that break up the mundane routine of having to perfect your craft, but in general it's not how you want to go about getting better as a hitter."

 

It was stressed that the message was not to tone down the power but rather prepare for being attacked by major league pitchers with major league velocity. Eddie Guardado’s BP fastball would be no substitute for that of Chris Sale. As the Twins were ready to leave Florida, Molitor announced that he would be starting the year with Torii Hunter or Trevor Plouffe as his cleanup candidates despite the fact that the imposing Vargas was hitting balls into the gulf on the reg. The Twins manager recognized that the young slugger was not ready to assume the demands of batting fourth.

 

As the first month of the regular season progressed, the question transitioned from where Vargas should hit in the lineup to whether he should be in the lineup at all. From the perspective of the coaching staff, Vargas continued to treat his pregame work as his own personal home run derby which affected his in-game performance.

 

“You [should] try to take batting practice that is more game-realistic. Don’t become too concerned with how far you hit them when a guy is throwing 60 mph,” Molitor told reporters this week. “It’s about trying to keep it crisp, use your barrel, keep it short, see the ball first.”

 

Vargas’ 2015 has been marred by not adjusting to how pitchers are approaching him. For example in the Kansas City series, Vargas was in a favorable 2-1 count against the left-handed slopper Jason Vargas (no relation). For most of his professional career, Vargas was likely used to seeing a high percentage of in-zone fastballs by minor league pitchers who were afraid of the count going 3-1. However, the pitcher Vargas threw an offspeed pitch down and away which hitter Vargas was not expecting and turned over.

 

http://i.imgur.com/QH8PAx4.gif

 

Like batting practice, the approach was all-or-nothing. He seemed to be thinking fastball the whole way and was only going to swing like it was a fastball.

 

To be sure, Vargas’ big leg kick and loading process are sound power generators. The issue surfaces when his pitch recognition and anticipation are out of whack and the timing mechanism breaks down. Last season after using the leg kick for the season in the minors, the Twins convinced Vargas to reduce the leg kick and load in order to cover the range of speed and breaks that he would see. In comparison to the Vargas-on-Vargas action above, in this at bat against the White Sox Sale last year shows how balanced he was and not overcommitting to a pitch.

 

http://i.imgur.com/qUmK1Zb.gif

 

By the end of last season, with his confidence inflated, Vargas had returned to the big leg kick swing. Now hitting .172 and 21 strikeouts in 64 at-bats, is it time to return to the muted mechanics of 2014? Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky noted how difficult it is to get hitters who did well in the minors to revamp their mechanics - even if it is needed.

 

“You can't come and change,” said Brunansky. “The hardest thing to do is tell a young hitter who has had success in the minor leagues who needs to change it at the major league level because they are going to say 'I hit like this'...but [the major leagues are] a different animal.”

 

Brunansky stresses process. The process of making small adjustments outside the game and bring that over to the field following the national anthem. But convincing someone to make changes becomes increasingly challenging when the prep work becomes about seeing how far the ball flies. Then gain, Vargas did just fine last year with the reduced movement swing and was still able to hit the ball a country mile.

 

http://i.imgur.com/ci1bG3X.gif

The Twins know that Vargas is in need of adjustments and they sat him several games to drive the point home. There is an established track record for Vargas: tone it down or get the timing down. Clearly his potential is worth the trouble but with Josmil Pinto performing well with the bat in Rochester, it may be time to consider the swap.

 

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[IndyTwinsFan]

I think that some time in Rochester might be in order.   At his age and level of experience, that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

[brvama]

I think that some time in Rochester might be in order.   At his age and level of experience, that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

 

Ditto

[Linus]

Give him another 3-4 weeks to see if he can adjust to the pitchers adjustments.  If he is still flailing then, then swap places with Pinto.

[markos]

One thing I noticed between the past two seasons is that last year Vargas was very, very good at making contact on pitches in the zone (~88% - close to Mauer-esque), but this season has been pretty terrible (~78% - close to Arcia-esque). I wonder if the mechanical/timing changes have caused him to be susceptible to certain pitches within the zone.

[Mike Sixel]

I have low expectations, but I think it is certainly possible he can be good.

[Thrylos]

Dont' disagree, but Santana has been worse than Vargas on both parts of the game.  At least Vargas can take a walk every now and then, and cannot hurt the team by booting balls like Santana.  

As far as Pinto goes, I'd rather see him catch and the old DH they play at RF, DH.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Based on the very unscientific method of my own eye test, It seems like Vargas is taking himself out of the at bat early. His confidence from the end of last year seems to be a little damaged, and he's lost a bit of the plate discipline that earned him his call-up last year. He's deciding to swing or not before the ball is released by the pitcher.

The homer he hit this year was and absolute laser beam - and he's had several very hard hit balls this year that show he is capable of doing a lot of damage. If he can calm down a bit and take each at bat as an independent event, he can help the Twins right now.

 

[troyhobbs]

 

Dont' disagree, but Santana has been worse than Vargas on both parts of the game.  At least Vargas can take a walk every now and then, and cannot hurt the team by booting balls like Santana.  

As far as Pinto goes, I'd rather see him catch and the old DH they play at RF, DH.

Rosario is picking it up too, he and Pinto have every bit of potential that Vargas, Santana, & Arcia have so no harm in interchanging prospects between AAA and MLB. It's probably time they send down Vargas and/or Santana.  

[Parker Hageman]

Dont' disagree, but Santana has been worse than Vargas on both parts of the game.

 

 

Sure but couple things -- Santana is at a position where his manager has stated he is his guy and, because the Twins used him in center field last year, the team is giving him a longer leash before making a switch.  

 

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/twins-to-let-santana-stick-it-out-at-short-r3578

 

Now with Vargas, he plays a position that is can be replaced with Josmil Pinto easily and allow him to make whatever adjustments the Twins feel he needs to make by playing regularly.  

 

Santana may be getting to the point where he's showing some better stick. Over the last 5 games, he's 8-for-19 (.421). Small sample size, to be sure, but he has a good swing from both sides. He won't walk but early in the year, teams pumped in-zone pitches and forced him to swing. He missed a lot and hit into outs a lot. Once he starts hitting, I would assume pitchers will give him fewer strikes and he may actually mix in a walk or two.

 

[Parker Hageman]

I wonder if the mechanical/timing changes have caused him to be susceptible to certain pitches within the zone.

 

 

It is an assortment of things that is leading to the swing-and-misses. Pitch recognition is one. His timing has been scattered. He gets his front foot down at different times on different pitches. His head moves a ton as well as he swings. 

 

Going back to the minimal movement would help reduce all that but it is about comfort for the player. If Vargas feels more comfortable with the leg kick, he's going to keep using it.

 

[Parker Hageman]

The homer he hit this year was and absolute laser beam - and he's had several very hard hit balls this year that show he is capable of doing a lot of damage.

 

 

113 mph according to the StatsCast data. According to BaseballSavant.com, he's managed to drive the ball over 110 mph three times -- only 20 hitters have done that this year -- one was the home run, the other two were double plays.

 

He hit the ball hard last year too with the minimal movement mechanics, he's definitely strong. 

 

[twinsnorth49]

 

113 mph according to the StatsCast data. According to BaseballSavant.com, he's managed to drive the ball over 110 mph three times -- only 20 hitters have done that this year -- one was the home run, the other two were double plays.

 

He hit the ball hard last year too with the minimal movement mechanics, he's definitely strong. 

He absolutely crushed the ball last year with minimal movement, I remember being at that Angels series last September when he mashed that HR 450 feet and only stopped because that's where the stadium ended. He also hit a rope to left centre that series that must have been going 120mph!

 

Not sure why he's gone away from that but the sooner the Twins can get him back into that rhythm the better.

[Willihammer]

You know Kennys is trying to hit one over the 3rd deck in left during BP. I would be too if I were him.

Edited May 1, 2015 by Willihammer

[Paul Pleiss]

Give him another 3-4 weeks to see if he can adjust to the pitchers adjustments.  If he is still flailing then, then swap places with Pinto.

I don't think you need to wait. And exchanging him for Pinto doesn't solve the roster inflexibility for this team. Pinto for Herrmann, or Hicks/Rosario for Vargas would be better moves. This team has too many bats that provide no defensive skill (Torii/Vargas/Arcia) and too many wasted roster spaces (J.R. Graham/Nunez/Herrmann) for the team to field a competive bench.

 

Nunez's performance in very limited experience probably means he keeps his roster spot, but I don't know how long he can keep up his magic tricks. Vargas needs to head to Rochester and get on a roll. Pinto and Hicks should be up soon, and maybe even Rosario, although he appears to still be adjusting to the challenge of AAA.

[Linus]

 

I have low expectations, but I think it is certainly possible he can be good.

Mike, I'm shocked that you are seeing this as glass half empty......

[Linus]

 

 

I don't think you need to wait. And exchanging him for Pinto doesn't solve the roster inflexibility for this team. Pinto for Herrmann, or Hicks/Rosario for Vargas would be better moves. This team has too many bats that provide no defensive skill (Torii/Vargas/Arcia) and too many wasted roster spaces (J.R. Graham/Nunez/Herrmann) for the team to field a competive bench.

Nunez's performance in very limited experience probably means he keeps his roster spot, but I don't know how long he can keep up his magic tricks. Vargas needs to head to Rochester and get on a roll. Pinto and Hicks should be up soon, and maybe even Rosario, although he appears to still be adjusting to the challenge of AAA.

Well, if we are going to go with the young guys (which everyone seems to want) then you have to stick by them and give them some time.  One month is a pretty short period of time when you are trying to figure out what the rest of the league is doing to you.

[Rosterman]

It is a learning process and the guys have to be weaned in. Which means that just because all your prospects start to hit the major league roster doesn't mean all of them will hit. Will the Twins be competitive with youngsters in 2016, 2017, maybe not until 2018. And when you combine offense with pitching needs. Whew. That's why your coaching staff throughout the minors and the majors are important. Which is why you try to have some of the right AAAA guys at minor league levels to speak realistically to the young guys. Life as a major league player can be short, or can be long. It is truly amazing to watch batters hit the ball to where a player is standing waiting for the ball. How pitchers, if they have the ability, can work on weaknesses. And the relief corps who only have to face select batters once in a game, or maybe even a series. Work in wind and sun and sound and what you feel like when you got to the park. Sometimes we are too critical of guys, I guess, or expect waaaay too much.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, I'm shocked that you are seeing this as glass half empty......

 

cool. commenting on me, and not the thought.

 

All the experty types on line don't think he's a long term hitter. We discussed this last year when he came up. didn't feel like retyping all of it.

 

I'm very glass half full on things that I think deserve it. I don't have high expectations means just that, based on what I've read from experts NOT part of the Twins' organization, they have low expectations. 

[Linus]

 

cool. commenting on me, and not the thought.

 

All the experty types on line don't think he's a long term hitter. We discussed this last year when he came up. didn't feel like retyping all of it.

 

I'm very glass half full on things that I think deserve it. I don't have high expectations means just that, based on what I've read from experts NOT part of the Twins' organization, they have low expectations. 

Should have put a smiley face behind it - just having fun.  His success last summer was certainly unexpected so you may end up correct at the end of the day.........

[Mike Sixel]

 

Should have put a smiley face behind it - just having fun.  His success last summer was certainly unexpected so you may end up correct at the end of the day.........

 

I very much want to be wrong......very much. It's great to see those laser shots.

[Parker Hageman]

All the experty types on line don't think he's a long term hitter. We discussed this last year when he came up. didn't feel like retyping all of it.

 

 

Do you have any links to that? I remember the narrative being that he might be a DH full-time right away but not that he wouldn't be able to hit.

 

[biscuit]

I hope so.  Right now, it doesn't look good.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Do you have any links to that? I remember the narrative being that he might be a DH full-time right away but not that he wouldn't be able to hit.

 

Not handy......at work....and actually paying attn on this call

[Dantes929]

 

Dont' disagree, but Santana has been worse than Vargas on both parts of the game.  At least Vargas can take a walk every now and then, and cannot hurt the team by booting balls like Santana.  

As far as Pinto goes, I'd rather see him catch and the old DH they play at RF, DH.

Satntana started slow and has been picking it up.  Vargas started ok and has been in a downward spiral.    Last year I was impressed with Vargas willingness to hit where the ball was thrown and that he wasn't over swinging.   I believe that home run derby stuff can mess up a swing.   Vargas like Arcia do not need to swig their hardest to hit the ball out.    Problem with the young guys being in slumps is that they appear to think they can make up for it al with one home run.   Reminds me of taking my 9 year old  son and his friend out to the driving range.   My son would just grip it and rip it while his friend was really working on his form and did not square up a single ball.   My son was swinging wilder and wilder and was soon not hitting anything well either.    The next day we went again and my son kept flailing at the ball while his friend started hitting good shot after good shot.   It really is about the process rather than the results.     Take care of the little things with good at bats and the results will take care of itself

[twinsnorth49]

I seem to recall Baseball America and Prospectus labeling him a solid contact hitter with a good ability to get on base and obviously high power grades,  but being down on him for anything defensively.  

 

 

[Dantes929]

_{What's cool is that his base running last night won the game.}

[Paul Pleiss]

It is a learning process and the guys have to be weaned in. Which means that just because all your prospects start to hit the major league roster doesn't mean all of them will hit. Will the Twins be competitive with youngsters in 2016, 2017, maybe not until 2018. And when you combine offense with pitching needs. Whew. That's why your coaching staff throughout the minors and the majors are important. Which is why you try to have some of the right AAAA guys at minor league levels to speak realistically to the young guys. Life as a major league player can be short, or can be long. It is truly amazing to watch batters hit the ball to where a player is standing waiting for the ball. How pitchers, if they have the ability, can work on weaknesses. And the relief corps who only have to face select batters once in a game, or maybe even a series. Work in wind and sun and sound and what you feel like when you got to the park. Sometimes we are too critical of guys, I guess, or expect waaaay too much.

I'm tired of waiting for next year, or the season after that or two seasons from now. The Twins attendence speaks loudly. At some point you need to find a way to put a quality lineup on the field. I know that the big prospects lost a season and things are delayed organizationally, but it's just been too long. This team needs to start transitioning into WIN NOW or risk losing a fan base for half a decade (if they haven't already).

[Shane Wahl]

Honestly, I think Vargas should go back to AAA at this point in favor of Pinto. Plouffe and Herrmann can back up Mauer for now at first. 

[Thegrin]

i believe Vargas played with Sano and Polanco in Beloit and again with the Miracle.

Now he has passed them up.  I believe it was stated that when they moved Sano and Rosario to AA the comment was something like, "Now lets see what Vargas can do on his own."  We are still seeing what Vargas can do without Sano and Rosario in the lineup, but I hope that will soon change.