April 28, 201511 yr Author Ya, offensively, compared to other 1B, if this is a ride to enjoy, the Twins have problems.....It all depends on whether you think Mauer's 2015 is typical Joe Mauer or whether you think his recent 7/14 day splits are indicative of where he's going. 7 day splits: .368 .500 .579 1.079 14 day splits: .298 .382 .426 .807 I'm cautiously optimistic about Joe. I'd be thrilled with an .800 OPS at this point but there's a decent chance that Joe still has a few .850 OPS seasons left in him.
April 28, 201511 yr Sooo...why are the two pull% stats I've seen in this thread for Mauer in 2015 so much different? Spy cake @ 18% BIP and Parkers is @ 40.4%. What am I missing here? It's captured a little differently. Baseball Reference uses Retrosheet's delineation of the field which has a bigger middle area. ESPN/TruMedia/Inside Edge slashes their Left/Center/Right area a bit more evenly which means balls that BR is classifying as "middle" are in the TruMedia pull side. http://www.retrosheet.org/hitloc.jpg
April 28, 201511 yr It all depends on whether you think Mauer's 2015 is typical Joe Mauer or whether you think his recent 7/14 day splits are indicative of where he's going. 7 day splits: .368 .500 .579 1.079 14 day splits: .298 .382 .426 .807 I'm cautiously optimistic about Joe. I'd be thrilled with an .800 OPS at this point but there's a decent chance that Joe still has a few .850 OPS seasons left in him. I am neither optimistic or pessimistic. Too early for me. but, I am happy for those that are happy and hopeful.
April 29, 201511 yr Are we even a month in? Other than 1st pitch swinging, is there really data that shows things have changed? Facial hair percentage.
April 29, 201511 yr Mauer's approach has clearly been better this year. He's swinging at first-pitch cookies now and then, keeping pitchers honest. He's been pulling the ball more. As he's consistently being defended with a dead-left, left-center, and dead-right shift... there's a ton of open space out there in center & right-center. If he keeps pulling the ball - with even mild authority, defenses will have no choice but to play him straight up. Once that happens, more hits will fall in for him in left & left-center. Would love to see him have a big year.
May 11, 201511 yr Don't know if anybody's still tracking this, but according to B-Ref, in the two weeks since this thread was posted, Mauer has hit to the opposite field twice as often as pulled (15 vs 8), and almost as often as he's hit up the middle (15 vs 20). His AVG and ISO in that time are .273 and .091, respectively. He's now at 291 PA since his last HR. And his K rate is climbing back up too. Mauer obviously will get all the time in the world, but at some point, I think we have to assume 2014 is his new normal until he performs otherwise.
May 11, 201511 yr Don't know if anybody's still tracking this, but according to B-Ref, in the two weeks since this thread was posted, Mauer has hit to the opposite field twice as often as pulled (15 vs 8), and almost as often as he's hit up the middle (15 vs 20). His AVG and ISO in that time are .273 and .091, respectively. He's now at 291 PA since his last HR. And his K rate is climbing back up too. Mauer obviously will get all the time in the world, but at some point, I think we have to assume 2014 is his new normal until he performs otherwise. Yup, he looks like last year's Mauer again. Could it just be that he's gotten into some awful habits that he can't break free from? That it wasn't really injuries but his approach the whole time? Someone with a better eye for swing analysis should watch the last few weeks, I'd be really curious to see the differences.
May 11, 201511 yr Not talking about the future, just what HAS happened...... Mauer is the 21st best hitting 1B in the majors so far.....based on wRC+. almost 300 PA since his last HR? Ouch. I really thought getting out from behind the plate, and being further from concussion and other issues would help him this year. Let's hope this season is not a continuation of ineffective Mauer......
May 11, 201511 yr He was showing encouraging signs until falling back into bad habits or possibly a comfort zone. Honestly, the bat looks slow. I don't know if it's pitchers figuring him out and Mauer needing to adjust or something else. I do think moving him out of the 3 hole is warranted at least for a couple of games.
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