Article: MLB Draft: Spring Board 1.0

[Jeremy Nygaard]

This draft is a mess.

 

The plan was for this to be a draft board - one through ten, but with the spring playing out as it has, it would be plenty difficult to do that.

 

Instead there are 10 players listed in three different groups. Let's run through some of the facts and you can try to sort it out for yourself later.

 

Or we can just wait til the draft gets closer.

 

(But how much fun would that be?)SS Brendan Rodgers of Lake Mary (Longwood HS) in Florida is as close to a consensus #1 as you’ll find in this year’s draft class. That’s on account of him starting at (or near) the very top and - despite having a solid but not great year - that he stayed healthy. His season ended earlier this week with a playoff loss, so he should remain healthy up until the draft. Rodgers has been in the mix to Arizona and since no one has been on the field consistently enough to wrestle it from him, that’s where he’ll remain… for now anyway.

 

P Dillon Tate, UC Santa Barbara, has been the biggest mover this season. The rapid ascension is due to Tate being moved from a reliever to a starter and having success doing it. With that, however, comes the durability question and, lo and behold, Tate missed his last start with a lat strain. While it’s not exactly a long-term concern, when durability was a question mark to start, it’s enough to make you wonder. Or is it? At this point, it won’t matter to the Twins. A relatively healthy Tate will be off the board in the top 5 picks.

 

SS Dansby Swanson, Vanderbilt, has also jumped up the board. Successfully making the transition from second base to shortstop has helped his stock. Personally, I have a hard time ignoring the lack of superstar-level shortstops who come from a four-year college. And Swanson isn’t Tulo (and Tulowitzki went 7th in his draft). To be fair to Swanson, it’s not his fault the draft is not good. But Swanson doesn’t have the pop of Tulowitzki (or even Brian Dozier) and it’s not a slam-dunk he stays at shortstop. The debate, though, is moot because Swanson, who is putting up an 1.100 OPS in the top conference is college, isn’t dropping to the Twins.

 

Those three players are the closest to any consensus Top “pick-your-number” you’ll see and you can feel pretty confident that those three will be off the board before the Twins step to the podium. Of the three, I’d prefer Tate first, Rodgers second and Dansby third - if I were stacking a board - with the bigger gap between Rodgers and Dansby than between Tate and Rodgers.

 

This is where the murky gets murkier.

 

Kyle Tucker, a prep outfielder from Florida, has the prettiest looking swing in the draft and lots of raw power. His stock is quietly going up and it’s been suggested to me that he could be off the board by the time the Twins pick. I’d put him and Twins solidly as a potential match at #6 and that’s why he’s being mentioned only shortly after the “top 3”. He’s also the younger brother of Astro minor leaguer Preston Tucker and you know how the Twins love their bloodlines.

 

Kolby Allard, a prep lefty from California, also shows up in the second group. Allard is unlikely to pitch again until right before the draft, having been sidelined since mid-March with a stress reaction in his back. Allard offers low-to-mid-90 mph heat with a plus curveball, an improving change-up and command that the Twins will love. The knock on Allard is that he’s only going to measure taller than six feet if he stands on his tippy toes. I’d take Allard, cause he’d be signable, he’s young for his class, and his injury isn’t going to be a long-term concern… but he’s really a step below...

 

Brady Aiken. If I would have told you three weeks before last year’s draft that there is a good chance that the Twins would be able to take Aiken, you wouldn’t have believed me. Well, eleven months later, here we are…

 

As we all know, the Astros drafted the polished prep lefty first overall last year and agreed to sign him for $6.5m. An MRI showed some “abnormalities” and the Astros reduced their offer to $5m. Aiken, and his rep Casey Close, balked at that figure and he enrolled at IMG Academy this spring. And as you also know, his season their lasted 12 pitches before he eventually underwent Tommy John surgery last month. There have been other questions raised recently about Aiken, and at this time, there is no general consensus about where he should go.

 

I was told that the afore-linked article gives bloggers a “black-eye”. Basically, Aiken tore his UCL… what else could be wrong/worse? As the article mentions, eventually the truth will be revealed.

 

But for now, health is not my issue with Aiken. He’s an elite talent and you can’t pass on an elite talent because of an injury that many/some/most pitchers will eventually have. My hang-up with Aiken is, if he wouldn’t sign for $5m last year, why would he sign for 20% less than that this year. (The Twins have a sliver under $4m tied to their 6th overall pick.)

 

So, as of right now, those would be my Top 6.

 

Some other names to keep in mind: Louisville pitcher Kyle Funkhouser. Funkhouser has the chops to be a front-end starter, but his lack of command leaves him a step below. Prep righty Mike Nikorak from Pennsylvania is climbing the charts and, with his season just starting, has the most to gain. I’m not going to put him in the Top 6 yet. But I’m not ruling him out. LSU SS Alex Bregman is a player. Where and how he fits is a question, but you can’t simply ignore players like him.

 

Rounding out the Top 10 is Georgia prep OF Daz Cameron. As I mentioned on a draft thread, it doesn't appear the Twins are too heavy on Mike’s kid, but rumors persist that the Astros may pop the Boras client with the 5th pick in the draft.

 

As we wind through the last seven weeks heading to the draft things will change quickly and often, but here’s a good place to start.

 

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[gunnarthor]

Great.  I'd love for Aiken to be our pick if the docs ok it.

[Tibs]

I know you're supposed to draft the best player available and not exactly for need, but would the Twins take a shortstop with the #6 pick after drafting Nick Gordon last year?

[nytwinsfan]

Ian Happ!!!

[teekz]

Shortstops are typically one of the most athletic players on their team. They get converted to other positions all the time. Dozier, Plouffe and Cuddyer were all SS when we drafted them.

[RollingOaks]

What about LHP Nathan Kirby from UVA?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Kirby has been bad and hurt lately. I think he's out for an extended period of time now.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Interesting point about the SSs. Bregman caught his last two years of high school. Have some feelers out to see if that's a possibility again. If there's belief he can do it, man, I'd consider it.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

My gut tells me the Twins should take a college arm that is closer to being ready. It would be nice for our prospects to come up all around the same time, and to have options for the fact some just won't pan out. Want someone who will be coming up a year or two after Meyers, Berrios, and May have built some experience. And with same groups as Stewart and Thorpe, and other.

 

Just my thoughts, and thought it would be a good strategy to draft HS talent for a few years, and then college talent for a few years. That way you have 4-5 years of talent all around the same age and gelling together. Then, restart that process. Of course, best available should be taken, if it's obvious.

[Mike Sixel]

Many SS, though, don't project to hit much for an OF........

 

I'm all over taking the best overall hitter available right now. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

Please, please, please a starting pitcher with ace potential.  With Meyer not exactly lighting the world on fire, and Kohl Stewart apparently allergic to strikeouts, we could use a guy that profiles as a potential top-of-the-rotation arm, as right now we have a collection of 2-3's

[the_youngster]

Thus far this draft class has been disappointing, there's no way to really deny that. That said, however, there are guys that I could definitely see being quality big leaguers some day. Allard has some very valuable assets at this stage in his career: command, movement, and an extremely smooth delivery. He is very young, still growing, and could have a very bright future. Bregman has long been touted as a true leader for LSU. If he can catch, that mentality could work well with pitching staffs. Then there are also guys like Fulmer, who will likely be a reliever, but just has good stuff, and Happ who honestly reminds me a bit of Chase Utley. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Please, please, please a starting pitcher with ace potential.  With Meyer not exactly lighting the world on fire, and Kohl Stewart apparently allergic to strikeouts, we could use a guy that profiles as a potential top-of-the-rotation arm, as right now we have a collection of 2-3's

Because Tate will be off the board by 6, that pretty much limits it to Aiken and maybe Matuella, both of whom are having TJ surgery. I might be ok with that if it turns out Aiken's elbow just needs routine TJ, but otherwise I'd say no and go with a position player.

[Mike Sixel]

Correct on the pitching. With the two guys you mentioned hurt, and tate gone, I prefer a hitter this year.

[jimmer]

Ow, we want the Funk
Give up the Funk
Ow, we need the Funk
We gotta have that Funk

[gunnarthor]

 

Ow, we want the Funk
Give up the Funk
Ow, we need the Funk
We gotta have that Funk

So, Nikorak then?

[bluechipper]

Right now I'm leaning towards Kyle Tucker. That swing really is a thing of beauty.

[RollingOaks]

 

Kirby has been bad and hurt lately. I think he's out for an extended period of time now.

His stats don't look that bad. 2.28 ERA, 75Ks in 59 Innings. Has 30 BBs which isn't great. Not nearly the numbers he put up the year before so I could see why his stock might drop a litle. Looks like he has a lat strain that will put him out a month or two but does that injury really impact his future?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The Twins drafted Luke Bard after he missed a couple months with a lat strain.

 

Tate's lat strain pushed him back a week.

 

Kirby is 6-8 weeks, I think. Seems more serious.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

There's no college arms that have "ace potential" currently. Possibly Tate, but even that's dicey. Aiken is the closest thing. And Nikorak if you're OK rolling the dice.

[Tibs]

 

Shortstops are typically one of the most athletic players on their team. They get converted to other positions all the time. Dozier, Plouffe and Cuddyer were all SS when we drafted them.

 

That's true. I just figured if you are going to take a SS that high it probably means you expect him to stick at short. Anything can happen and I hope they draft the best player they can get.

[tobi0040]

Have a hard time seeing Aiken not signing at 6 if he is there. He isn't going to improve his draft position by sitting out another year, if five teams pass in him this year he has to think that is about his market value.

[DocBauer]

Dear ML baseball,

 

For the Twins 1st round pick this season in the upcoming draft, I would like the Twins to acquire a potential top of the rotation LH starting pitcher. I would prefer him to be a college pitcher vs a high schooler to accelerate his path to the majors.

 

But a high schooler would be OK too.

 

I promise I've been a good boy this year.

 

Thank you

 

Doc

[Kwak]

An OF who can hit for both average and power (and please not the dreaded 5-tool designation, because none of them the draft are...) should be first choice. SS wind up being "slap-and-dash" guys--which is OK if said player actually is a top SS--but with so many SSs in the system (I'm including the projected Dominican 16-yr old), that type isn't worth a 1-6 selection.

[nater79a]

Any buzz on a couple prep hurlers - Ashe Russell (IN) and Justin Hooper(CA)? Both have big arms and can hit 97 on the gun. I know Hooper has some control issues but Russell has three legit pitches including a change.

[beckmt]

Taking one of the two pitchers that have had TJ surgery is a risk.  Twins are now at the point in their system with not a consensus talent this year, I would role the dice on Aiken, depending on his meds.  More top of the line pitching. 

[SarasotaBill]

Take a risk on Aiken - his upside is much greater than those in this draft.

 

He'll sign for 4 million - the Astros tried to low ball him with a offer before increasing it to 5 million just before the deadline. By then the relationship was over.

 

If he doesn't sign - then the Twins get the 7th pick in next year's draft which has to be better.

[teekz]

 

That's true. I just figured if you are going to take a SS that high it probably means you expect him to stick at short. Anything can happen and I hope they draft the best player they can get.

 

A lot of them do play SS in the minors coming up. Plouffe and Dozier both played SS some at the Major League level before being transitioned to a different position. Morneau was a catcher when we drafted him. Sano was signed out of the Dominican as a Shortstop.

 

I try not to put too much stock into the initial position a player enters the minors at because depending on their talent, they have a good chance of being somewhere else when they hit the big league club.

[Mike Sixel]

Aiken is not turning down millions again, just not going to happen. If you take him, you have him.

 

If they had a 2nd round pick, they could try to under slot him....now, not so much.

 

Go get the best hitter, that's what I want. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Re Aiken vs the money. I feel how you all feel. The more he says "no" the less leverage he has. But he still has a ton of leverage. He can go through the draft a few more times. (I think IMG is considered a post-secondary school, so he still has four more drafts after this one.) With slots continuing to rise, he'll still get paid. The sense I'm getting from those I've talked to, is that they don't expect him to sign outside of the top couple of picks. He'll go back, get healthy and prove that he's worth a lot of money and, eventually, he'll get it.

 

Taking him at #6 to get the 7th pick next year is a risk. It diminishes the bonus pool greatly without a 2nd round pick. But, yeah, next year's draft has got to be better.