Article: The Ceiling And The Floor

[Ted Schwerzler]

Currently, the Minnesota Twins are less than a week away from kicking off their 2015 major league baseball season. Having hovered right around the .500 mark this spring, new manager Paul Molitor should have a good idea of the areas of strength, and where the team needs work. Heading north, the Twins will be looking to break away from the trend that is losing 90 games each of the last four seasons.More than in any other recent season, the 2015 Twins have both a respectable ceiling and a relatively high floor. Maximizing on opportunities will determine in which direction they trend.

 

Last season, Minnesota vastly outproduced expectations on the offensive end. Getting key contributions from players like Danny Santana, Kurt Suzuki, and even Jordan Schafer, the Twins saw more runs scored than they could have imagined. Unfortunately, even with unexpected batting averages being inflated, the Twins failed to capitalize in the wins category due to poor pitching. There's no doubt that once again the mound was an area of focus this offseason, and the Twins appear to be in a better place.

 

When looking at how high the Twins ceiling is for 2015, everything begins and ends with pitching. Although Ervin Santana was the club's only offseason addition, the staff looks retooled and competitive for the first time in years. Gone are the days of Cole De Vries and Samuel Deduno making the opening day rotation. Minnesota has a true ace in Phil Hughes, and he is backed by arms such as Kyle Gibson, Santana and Ricky Nolasco. Rounding out the rotation, Tommy Milone is more than capable of getting the job done as a fifth starter at the major league level. The improved pitching should only complement a lineup designed to score runs.

 

Looking at the offense, there's no doubt the Twins will see some regression. Of the players mentioned above as breakouts, next to none of them should be expected to replicate their 2014 level of success. However, getting key contributions from players like Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter and Oswaldo Arcia in 2015 should make the regression less detrimental to the team's fortunes. Minnesota's lineup boasts at least five guys capable of 20-home run seasons, and solid pitching performances should not be wasted this time around.

 

Trying to quantify the ceiling in the win/loss column is probably more assumption- based than anything. As it stands currently, I have the Twins coming in at 79-83. Should they have things break in their favor and maximize on their opportunities, an 86-win campaign would not be out of the realm of possibility. That win total should be good enough to get them near the top of the AL Central and into the wild card round as well. The Central is competitive as a whole, but the top has gotten worse while the bottom has gotten better. Minnesota can no doubt play with, and beat, any team in the division.

 

So what if it all crashes and burns?

 

Before thinking doomsday, there's no doubt that this Twins roster is built for regression. Handling, and overcoming, adversity is something that the 2015 Twins should be more than capable of doing. Once again, everything begins and ends with pitching, and that could be where the Twins find their breakdown.

 

I have a hard time quantifying what the floor looks like for the Twins this season. They have a handful of options when and if guys go down, and each of the options is capable in a limited capacity. However, if Nolasco fails to bounce back, Milone struggles, and Gibson doesn't develop, Minnesota could be in some trouble. A rotation highlighting only Hughes again would be extremely detrimental to this club. Although I think Santana is going to be fine with the Twins, he does have a couple of concerning factors that could come into play.

 

From a numerical standpoint, the floor isn't where it once was. If the Twins mid-point is the 79-83 record I referenced above, than the floor is somewhere around 73 games. I don't foresee the current roster construction, or state of the organization, producing a 90-loss team. The AL Central probably won't produce a 90-loss team this year, and if it does, I don't think it will be the Twins.

 

While not yet ready to make a deep playoff run in Paul Molitor's first season as skipper, the Twins have to be excited about the place they are in. There's more good than bad, and things are trending upwards.

 

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[Hosken Bombo Disco]

With Hughes, Nolasco and Santana they do have a higher floor nowadays. Hopefully Gibson vaults to a #2 guy in the rotation this year.

 

I don't know if the Twins will be postseason contenders again unless Meyer, Berrios or May get an honest chance and then pitch as advertised.

[jimmer]

I admire your optimism and wish I could agree with your overall point of view on the state of our team.  I am hoping you are right.

[IndyTwinsFan]

Cautiously optimistic here, just like at the start of most every recent season.  I'm just hoping (and praying) that the optimism lasts well into the summer months, which would mean longer than it has in the previous four seasons. 

[REPETE]

 

With Hughes, Nolasco and Santana they do have a higher floor nowadays. Hopefully Gibson vaults to a #2 guy in the rotation this year.

I don't know if the Twins will be postseason contenders again unless Meyer, Berrios or May get an honest chance and then pitch as advertised.

I have a feeling if Meyer, Berrios, and/or (to a lesser extent) May are up here for long periods, this team may be farther from contention.  That said, I'd still rather see these guys learning on the job than Milone, Pelfrey, & Stauffer's Lasagna.  At least then we can be talking about contention in 2016.

[Halsey Hall]

I too admire your optimism.  I'm not nearly as high on the guys as you are, but look forward to seeing how Molitor handles the team and the season.  At least it's baseball time again. 

[mikelink45]

Ceiling - ,500 floor .444.  If only TR was an aggressive GM, trade the high price assets role in the minor leaguers midseason and we boost the minors and bring in energy that would raise the ceiling for me.  

[birddog]

Baseball normally gets down to the SP and even though I was strongly hoping Meyer and May would be in the top 5, we are light years better than SP of the past 4 years. Not sure if  Hughes can duplicate his performance of last year, but if he can be 5-8 games over .500 and the others can be near breaking even, Twins can be in contention if the Central Division underachieves. My prediction is 77 wins so I am not expecting to be in the race, but after Santana and Vargas were called up last year it got fun once again to watch Twins baseball. 2016 has been the rallying cry for a number of years, but if Buxton is Trout-like this year and Sano stays healthy and proves to be the run producer he has been, 2015 could be the start Twins fans have been praying for.

[jimmer]

I am, as always, looking forward to the season as much as I always have.  Took Monday off to watch a bunch of games.  Used to be a tradition for me, but with all the deployments and such, kind of got away from doing that.  

 

But I'll have the grill going and I'll be enjoying the game with a burger and a beer this year.  Three Days till our season starts.

 

GO TWINS!!!!!

[ashbury]

 

I don't know if the Twins will be postseason contenders again unless Meyer, Berrios or May get an honest chance and then pitch as advertised.

"Or"? We're one pitcher away?

[Dantes929]

Ceiling is 1st place and floor is last place with the latter being more likely than the floor but I watch because of the possibility of the former.

The following is what keeps me from predicting ranges.  

After a 79 win season in 2007  I am sure the 2008 consensus for ceiling would have been 75 wins and the floor would be 65 wins.    After all, how can you expect anything but worse when losing your  all star centerfielder and Cy Young pitcher?

After a 94 win season in 2010 I am sure the 2011 consensus for ceiling would have been 96 wins and floor of 86 wins.   After all we only lost Hardy who was always hurt anyway, we were getting Japan's best hitter and we lost LNP who everyone said was the worst starting player for any team ever.  

[Willihammer]

Ceiling is 1st place and floor is last place with the latter being more likely than the floor but I watch because of the possibility of the former.

The following is what keeps me from predicting ranges.  

After a 79 win season in 2007  I am sure the 2008 consensus for ceiling would have been 75 wins and the floor would be 65 wins.    After all, how can you expect anything but worse when losing your  all star centerfielder and Cy Young pitcher?

After a 94 win season in 2010 I am sure the 2011 consensus for ceiling would have been 96 wins and floor of 86 wins.   After all we only lost Hardy who was always hurt anyway, we were getting Japan's best hitter and we lost LNP who everyone said was the worst starting player for any team ever.

Yeah, wanna laugh? Go back and look at the opening day DH / starter for that 2008 team.

 

Maybe a winning season for the 2015 club isn't that far fetched after all.

[AKTwins]

I am fine with the roster.  The Twins have had success in the past taking middle relievers off the scrap heap (Fien, Fione, Guerrier, etc.)  Hermann is best of limited options.  Fryer will not hit any better.  Pinto can catch 4 games and DH 2 games a week in Rochester.  Where in MN, he may catch 2 and DH 1.  Hunter, Vargas and Mauer will all DH.  The starting pitching has no surprises, it has more depth than top end talent, which is not necessarily bad.  I think if Milone gets going they may be able to flip hiim at the deadline.  It makes sense to allow May and Meyer to work on things for a month or two before starting them in the bigs.  I am bullish on Schafer, i think he may do well.  He has no pressure.  There are plenty of guys in the big leagues who bounce around before they find a fit (ex. Jose Bautista at the extreme end).  At least Schaffer will play average centerfield.  Im more worried about Arcia's defense.  I wish he could be a full-time DH.

[Lazarus]

First bomb dropped  - a lot of pressure on Nolasco now as the #3 starter. No doubt that we will see May and Meyer before mid-season if they do anything in Rochester.