This morning, the Twins announced that LHP Caleb Thielbar has been optioned to Rochester. The decision sets the Twins Opening Day bullpen.

 

Glen Perkins is the closer. The others:

Casey Fien

Brian Duensing

Mike Pelfrey

Brian Boyer

Tim Stauffer

JR Graham

 

In the past two seasons with the Twins, Thielbar posted an ERA of 2.59 and a WHIP of just 1.12 over 93.2 innings in 103 appearances. Over that time, left-handed hitters posted a .638 OPS against him while right-handed hitters posted a .647 OPS against him.

I guess I'm going to have to live with Stauffer. Maybe he'll ... whatever. Is there anyone who likes Stauffer on the team? I'm usually not overly critical because, well, what really do I know? And maybe this is something that I really just don't know. But ... I just don't know what to say about it.

Veterans Rule!

 

. Is there anyone who likes Stauffer on the team?

 

Depends on the role.  On paper, he is better than Swarzak with FIP/xFIP/SIERA in the 3.90s instead of the 4.50s.  I think that he is an improvement in the Swarzak (mop up) role.   I think that Pelfrey is an improvement over Burton, Graham over Thielbar (who, when his BABIP came down to earth was very hittable; a LOOGY with lefties hitting .280/.327/.433 like they did last  season off him, is not too great,) and Boyer is better than the journeymen for the last BP spot.   

 

So.  Improvement on paper.

 

What concerns me most about the pen, is the one who (almost) everyone else takes as a given.  Perkins' velocity was down 1.5 last season compared to 2013 and he topped at 92 this ST. 

 

Never understood the infatuation with Thielbar (who is replacement level) until I realized that he was from MN...

This bullpen is leaving a bad taste in my mouth for sure. Primarily because I'm disappointed that none of the in-house candidates stepped up their game. Tonkin, Pressley, Olivaros, Thompson, Thielbar, Pryor...every one of them would elicit no greater confidence right now than this collection of veterans for me. Also, we have these ominous signs to contend with: Duensing and Stauffer being eminently hittable, Perkins not being his dominating old self, etc. 

 

Totally uninspiring. J.R. Graham is the only new guy that intrigues me a bit.

 

The only consolation for me, but not reliably for 2015, is that we have a boatload of bullpen candidates that might be a year or less away and some tradable assets with value in that same timeframe from among the position players and rotation. Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, JT Chargois, Zack Jones, Corey Williams, Brandon Peterson, Luke Bard, Michael Tonkin.....let's hope for a couple of these guys to break out early this season.

Edited April 1, 201511 yr by birdwatcher

 

Depends on the role.  On paper, he is better than Swarzak with FIP/xFIP/SIERA in the 3.90s instead of the 4.50s.  I think that he is an improvement in the Swarzak (mop up) role.   I think that Pelfrey is an improvement over Burton, Graham over Thielbar (who, when his BABIP came down to earth was very hittable; a LOOGY with lefties hitting .280/.327/.433 like they did last  season off him, is not too great,) and Boyer is better than the journeymen for the last BP spot.   

 

So.  Improvement on paper.

 

What concerns me most about the pen, is the one who (almost) everyone else takes as a given.  Perkins' velocity was down 1.5 last season compared to 2013 and he topped at 92 this ST. 

 

Never understood the infatuation with Thielbar (who is replacement level) until I realized that he was from MN...

Yeah, this sounds about right.  And Molitor might use the pen a bit differently than Gardy, so we'll see.  

 

 

The only consolation for me, but not really for 2015, is that we have a boatload of bullpen candidates that might be a year or less away and some tradable assets with value in that same timeframe. Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, JT Chargois, Zack Jones, Corey Williams, Brandon Peterson, Luke Bard.....let's hope for a couple of these guys to break out early this season.

 

I hope so, but we were saying the same thing about a lot of the dudes in your first paragraph not long ago.  I hope if this bullpen is bad early we're not afraid to pull the cord quick and gamble on youth.

What concerns me about the pen is, Duensing is the only lefty, and he's really only suited for LOOGY work.  I would rather have kept Aaron Thompson and traded/never signed Stauffer.

 

Depends on the role.  On paper, he is better than Swarzak with FIP/xFIP/SIERA in the 3.90s instead of the 4.50s.  I think that he is an improvement in the Swarzak (mop up) role.   I think that Pelfrey is an improvement over Burton, Graham over Thielbar (who, when his BABIP came down to earth was very hittable; a LOOGY with lefties hitting .280/.327/.433 like they did last  season off him, is not too great,) and Boyer is better than the journeymen for the last BP spot.   

 

So.  Improvement on paper.

 

What concerns me most about the pen, is the one who (almost) everyone else takes as a given.  Perkins' velocity was down 1.5 last season compared to 2013 and he topped at 92 this ST. 

 

Never understood the infatuation with Thielbar (who is replacement level) until I realized that he was from MN...

Okay. I can go with that. As I said, I'm not too overly critical because I figure those that make the decisions do know a bit more than me.

 

Depends on the role.  On paper, he is better than Swarzak

That's a low bar!  Hopefully we're not signing or promoting guys with the intent that they will be limited to back end bullpen duty due to their own lack of talent.

 

Thrylos, I am disappointed you didn't pimp cFIP here.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/17306-article-twins-pitching-woes-2013-and-2014/

 

2014

Fien 89

Stauffer 91 (includes 3 poor starts)

Burton 106

Swarzak 111 (includes starts)

 

2013

Fien 67

Burton 91

Stauffer 91

Swarzak 97

 

2012

Fien 83

Burton 86

 

Looks like they might expect Stauffer to replace Burton.  (I might argue that Burton didn't particularly need external replacing with a low-upside 33 year old on a 1-year deal, but...)

 

I hope so, but we were saying the same thing about a lot of the dudes in your first paragraph not long ago.  I hope if this bullpen is bad early we're not afraid to pull the cord quick and gamble on youth.

 

What gives me a bit of solace about the dudes I mentioned: Burdi and Reed were new last year. Jones and Peterson are on a decent track, even a fast one. Chargois, Bard, and Williams were injured all year. There's a slew of dudes I didn't mention that the pundits like, guys like Melotakis, Romero, Cedaroth, Booser, Baxendale, Slegers, Duffey, all of whom are ranked in various top 25 lists. Meyer, if switched to the bullpen, is a potential shutdown guy. As hard as it is to stomach, we're still waiting on the most meaningful phase of the youth movement, and I know I'm on far far spectrum of the optimism meter, maybe breaking the needle.

 

What concerns me about the pen is, Duensing is the only lefty, and he's really only suited for LOOGY work.  I would rather have kept Aaron Thompson and traded/never signed Stauffer.

 

I predicted T-Bar would be out last November, and shuddered when they re-signed Duensing- I think his  effectiveness is just about done. 

 

Besides giving Thompson a better shot, they also should have looked at other LOOGY FA options, and shielded Gilmartin from Rule 5 and given him a shot at the role. 

 

 

 

 

Looks like they might expect Stauffer to replace Burton.  (I might argue that Burton didn't particularly need external replacing with a low-upside 33 year old on a 1-year deal, but...)

 

That was my prediction on the day they signed him, seemed like a classic Ryan move of recognizing undervalued arms.  I had my doubts then, and even more so now- but I have to give props where they're due,  Ryan's proved us all wrong before.

Edited April 1, 201511 yr by jokin

By FIP-, Stauffer is also pretty comparable to our other recent bullpen arms:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=8346,3926,7466,6432,2237,4064,10078&sort=15,a

 

Of course, neither cFIP nor FIP- takes leverage into account.  Clicking over to the "Win Probabilty" tab at the link above shows Stauffer/Boyer were below even Swarzak (and even Guerrier 2014) in terms of gmLI for the Padres.

Very uninspiring bullpen, not sure why Stauffer and Duensing were given Major league contracts with the team. It's pretty mind boggling that they won't give some of the youngsters a chance over proven mediocrity.

So runners on 2nd and 3rd no outs in a tie game in the 7th and the only guys available who have good enough stuff to reasonably hope for a strike out is the Rule V rookie or the closer? 

Lots of potential tradebait there.

 

Question 1 - Who will be with the team next year? (I would trade Fien mid-season to anyone looking for a closer, if Fien doesn't pull a Jared Burton on us).

 

Question 2 - Who comes up from the minors. Too many choices NOT on the 40-man at the moment.

 

Question 3 - When does Aaron Hicks try a comeback as a pitcher?

 

That was my prediction on the day they signed him, seemed like a classic Ryan move of recognizing undervalued arms.  I had my doubts then, and even more so now- but I have to give props where they're due,  Ryan's proved us all wrong before.

True, TR's record warrants some benefit of the doubt, although Stauffer's service time really limits the "value" we can get for him beyond his 2015 on-field performance.

 

Lots of potential tradebait there.

 

Question 1 - Who will be with the team next year? (I would trade Fien mid-season to anyone looking for a closer, if Fien doesn't pull a Jared Burton on us).

 

Question 2 - Who comes up from the minors. Too many choices NOT on the 40-man at the moment.

 

Question 3 - When does Aaron Hicks try a comeback as a pitcher?

1) Perkins, Fein, Graham, Boyer.

2) Tonkin gets first crack but Burdi and Reed are the two important ones.  Also, Meyer could be a bullpen guy first.

3) Interesting idea but it won't happen with the Twins.

only thing good you can say about Stauffer is he makes a decent frozen lasagna.  Outside of that, he can hopefully get a guy out now and then, but we don't have to see him too often!

 

 

Lots of potential tradebait there.

 

Question 1 - Who will be with the team next year? (I would trade Fien mid-season to anyone looking for a closer, if Fien doesn't pull a Jared Burton on us).

Tradebait in the sense that if they are performing well, we might be able to give them away, but it's doubtful any of the relievers outside Perkins brings back much in trade.

 

When was the last time a team seeking a closer traded for a Casey Fien type setup guy?  Almost every team -- and especially every contending team -- has an equivalent pitcher to promote from within.  His value to the Twins is multiple seasons of decent, affordable pitching.

 

The four guys on expiring contracts especially seem to be placeholders rather than investments.

 

1) Perkins, Fein, Graham, Boyer.

2) Tonkin gets first crack but Burdi and Reed are the two important ones.  Also, Meyer could be a bullpen guy first.

3) Interesting idea but it won't happen with the Twins.

 

I agree with everything, but fear after Tonkin gets the first crack, the Twins will go through the litany of AAA 40-man roster suspects before Burdi and Reed get a shot. Without roster space clearing from this very cluttered roster, I have trepidations that Burdi and Reed won't even get a chance for a September debut/trout.  Gardy didn't have enough influence to get Meyer up last year, perhaps if Molitor and Allen double-team Ryan, they can wash the pitching prospect myopia out of his old scouting eyes.

 

Very uninspiring bullpen, not sure why Stauffer and Duensing were given Major league contracts with the team. It's pretty mind boggling that they won't give some of the youngsters a chance over proven mediocrity.

 

TAKE IT BACK MACK!

I think big PELF.. would be the ideal 7th inning guy... as he can throw harder then the other options... 

 

 

I agree with everything, but fear after Tonkin gets the first crack, the Twins will go through the litany of AAA 40-man roster suspects before Burdi and Reed get a shot. Without roster space clearing from this very cluttered roster, I have trepidations that Burdi and Reed won't even get a chance for a September debut/trout.  Gardy didn't have enough influence to get Meyer up last year, perhaps if Molitor and Allen double-team Ryan, they can wash the pitching prospect myopia out of his old scouting eyes.

Wasn't Antony the one who quashed the Meyer bullpen pleas last year b/c Ryan was getting treatment for cancer?  I still hope that Meyer is a starter long term but, if not, the team should use him as a big weapon out of the pen as soon as they can.

 

 

When was the last time a team seeking a closer traded for a Casey Fien type setup guy?  Almost every team -- and especially every contending team -- has an equivalent pitcher to promote from within.  His value to the Twins is multiple seasons of decent, affordable pitching.

 

 

I agree, except I think you're being generous to Fein.  Andrew Miller and Wade Davis certainly would take exception.

 

Wasn't Antony the one who quashed the Meyer bullpen pleas last year b/c Ryan was getting treatment for cancer?  I still hope that Meyer is a starter long term but, if not, the team should use him as a big weapon out of the pen as soon as they can.

 

Yes, but the "Plan" for Meyer had been set up before Antony took over, and presumably that had Ryan's imprimatur all over it.  (I wish Ryan would have just picked up the phone to the Cardinals for some consultation on the matter).

Looking forward to learning more about this Brian Boyer chap.

 

_{^{/ didn't know you went in for April Fools jokes, Seth}}

Relief pitchers are seemingly toughest to project. I think there is upside in many of the guys who were cut this spring. I don't really have a problem if any of the guys who didn't make it in March get a shot in the first half of the season. I doubt Reed, Burdi et al will be ready until sometime late this summer anyway.

 

I doubt Reed, Burdi et al will be ready until sometime late this summer anyway.

 

Hate to say this (for a lot of reasons) but Burdi was ready last year