Article: 2015 Projections and Rankings: Joe Mauer

[tobi0040]

 

Where was Gwynn's and Boggs (corner IF and corner OF)?

 

Gwynn was at .813. Interestingly his career OPS is quite a bit higher, .847.  So his 32-40 years were quite a bit better.

 

Boggs was at .920 at 31, then dropped to .858 for his career.  His 30's were not as nice to him.

 

Total BREF WAR for the three at 31.  Boggs 59.9.  Mauer 46.3.  Gwynn 41.

[TheLeviathan]

 

  Gwynn 41.

 

I'm going to go out on a big limb here and guess Gwynn's dWar was not kind to him....

[jimmer]

 

Gwynn was at .813. Interestingly his career OPS is quite a bit higher, .847.  So his 32-40 years were quite a bit better.

 

Boggs was at .920 at 31, then dropped to .858 for his career.  His 30's were not as nice to him.

 

Total BREF WAR for the three at 31.  Boggs 59.9.  Mauer 46.3.  Gwynn 41.

Thanks for the info and nice WAR comp, do you know fWAR's same comparison? And Carew's

Edited April 1, 2015 by jimmer

[Willihammer]

I don't know what it is about Mauer that everyone judges him differently than other ballplayers. Is it the contract? That is what it is. He got paid at the absolute best possible moment. Good for him. You can't make a player in to superman just by paying him a bunch of money.

 

I usually find myself defending Mauer by default but we've reached a point where we have to be realistic about the mileage on his body, changes in the game, the strikezone, outfield defense, and Mauer's own limitations. I'm not even sure he belongs in the top half of the lineup at this point.

[tobi0040]

 

I'm going to go out on a big limb here and guess Gwynn's dWar was not kind to him....

 

So I look it up.  Almost all his value was on the defensive side with a negative Owar.  Then I realize I am looking at his son.

[tobi0040]

 

I don't know what it is about Mauer that everyone judges him differently than other ballplayers. Is it the contract? That is what it is. He got paid at the absolute best possible moment. Good for him. You can't make a player in to superman just by paying him a bunch of money.

 

I usually find myself defending Mauer by default but we've reached a point where we have to be realistic about the mileage on his body, changes in the game, the strikezone, outfield defense, and Mauer's own limitations. I'm not even sure he belongs in the top half of the lineup at this point.

 

The contract was a perfect storm of great year and new stadium.  And I think the thing that people don't understand is that the Twins likely view a decent chunk of that $23M as a marketing expense with a high ROI.

 

[tobi0040]

 

Thanks for the info and nice WAR comp, do you know fWAR's same comparison? And Carew's

 

I could not find it quickly and need to get to work!

[TheLeviathan]

 

So I look it up.  Almost all his value was on the defensive side with a negative Owar.  Then I realize I am looking at his son.

 

I've always wondered what tree that apple fell from.  Total reversal in skill sets, pretty amazing.

[jimmer]

 

I could not find it quickly and need to get to work!

thanks for looking up what you did.

[jimmer]

 

Iabout the mileage on his body, changes in the game, the strikezone, outfield defense, and Mauer's own limitations. I'm not even sure he belongs in the top half of the lineup at this point.

as long as he continues to have the best OBP on the team he deserves to be in the top half of the lineup.

 

And I'd like to see if 2014 is the Mauer we have now rather than 2012 or 2013 Mauer before dropping him.

[KGB]

 

Joe has Oliva in every category outside of HR and slugging. OPS, OPS plus, BA, OBP by 48 points.

 

He is at least in the discussion, yet here you will find 4-5 negative comments for every positive one about Joe.

 

I think you need to look at the players in comparison to the era they played:

 

    2004 to 2013    1963 to 1972
 
      League Avg       League Avg
Avg    0.262               0.249
OBP   0.329               0.316
SLG   0.414               0.367
OPS   0.743              0.683

 

I don't think saying Mauer is below Carew and Oliva is a negative comment. I think some people get overly sensitive when talking about Mauer.

[jimmer]

 

I think you need to look at the players in comparison to the era they played:

 

    2004 to 2013    1963 to 1972
 
      League Avg       League Avg
Avg    0.262               0.249
OBP   0.329               0.316
SLG   0.414               0.367
OPS   0.743              0.683

 

I don't think saying Mauer is below Carew and Oliva is a negative comment. I think some people get overly sensitive when talking about Mauer.

OPS+ takes era into account. It's why, for those who like OPS, OPS+ is so good. Mauer's career OPS+ is better than all the comp players listed.  Do you show something different in the time frames you've listed?  And, of course, none of them endured the physical challenges of playing catcher. 

 

Mauer isn't below Oliva, and I'm not sure what argument would say he is. Besides the HR.

Edited April 1, 2015 by jimmer

[Willihammer]

as long as he continues to have the best OBP on the team he deserves to be in the top half of the lineup.

 

And I'd like to see if 2014 is the Mauer we have now rather than 2012 or 2013 Mauer before dropping him.

I agree we should let the results dictate. Part of that is getting over the expectations that:

 

if you pay Mauer 23m he will be worth 23m

if you put Mauer at 1B he will have 100+ RBI

if you bat Mauer 3rd he will be your best hitter

 

Mauer lead the team in OBP but there were 4 others within 25 points of him. He finished 5th in OPS. I'd probably keep him in the top half for now but by no means consider him a lock there.

[jimmer]

I want the guys I believe will I have the best OBPs and wRC+ getting as many PAs as possible. That's almost always been Mauer on our team (of course 2014 is there and it happened and it's the most recent). He also posted a wRC+ of 125 in the 2nd half, so he's coming back around IMO.

 

I think people need to have a better understanding of what is worth 23M in today's game (for example in 2012 and 2013 he was worth 46M combined based on what 1 WAR bought you on the open market) and that there is more than one way to create/produces runs besides what we were told forever.  And I'm not sure your best hitter bats 3rd anymore. :-)

Edited April 1, 2015 by jimmer

[jharaldson]

 

I don't know what it is about Mauer that everyone judges him differently than other ballplayers. Is it the contract? That is what it is. He got paid at the absolute best possible moment. Good for him. You can't make a player in to superman just by paying him a bunch of money.

 

I usually find myself defending Mauer by default but we've reached a point where we have to be realistic about the mileage on his body, changes in the game, the strikezone, outfield defense, and Mauer's own limitations. I'm not even sure he belongs in the top half of the lineup at this point.

 

I would also say it is his size.  According to bbref he is 6'5/230.  This thread is comparing him to guys smaller than him.  Gwynn was 5'11/185, Rod Carew was 6'0/170, Wade Boggs was 6'2/190.  I had a disagreement recently with Gleeman on Twitter on this because he frequently presents posts that he calls "without bias" but they are always comparing Joe to smaller individuals like the ones above and others like Molitor, Jeter, ect.....  and I think that true comps are guys about his size.  Looking at the HOF the past 30 years I found only 2 guys who are 6'4 or 6'5 and they are Cal Ripken (6'4/200) and Frank Thomas (6'5/240) and both used their size for more power than Mauer did.

 

In my opinion if Mauer were 5 inches shorter and 60 pounds lighter the power discussions would not be as frequent.

 

 

[KGB]

 

OPS+ takes era into account. It's why, for those who like OPS, OPS+ is so good. Mauer's career OPS+ is better than all the comp players listed.  Do you show something different in the time frames you've listed?  And, of course, none of them endured the physical challenges of playing catcher. 

 

Mauer isn't below Oliva, and I'm not sure what argument would say he is. Besides the HR.

This is back our previous discussion about stats, you can find them to support just about anything.  Both Oliva and Mauer are borderline HOF players, the next few years will tell for Mauer.  But to be upset about someone thinking Oliva is a better player than Mauer is silly.  Below is the OPS+ by year and considering Oliva played the last few years on 1 leg and we have not seen how Mauer's career will play out, I think I'll stick with Oliva until I see what Mauer does over the last 4 years.

 

Year OPS+ Player
2009 171 Mauer
1971 154 Oliva
1964 150 Oliva
1968 145 Oliva
2006 144 Mauer
2013 142 Mauer
1965 141 Oliva
2010 140 Mauer
2012 140 Mauer
1970 137 Oliva
1966 136 Oliva
2008 134 Mauer
1969 133 Oliva
1967 129 Oliva
2007 118 Mauer
1973 109 Oliva
1974 109 Oliva
2005 107 Mauer
2014 107 Mauer
1975 103 Oliva
2011 102 Mauer
1976 43 Oliva

[jimmer]

 

 But to be upset about someone thinking Oliva is a better player than Mauer is silly.  

It's even sillier to read my post and assume i was upset that you said Oliva is better.  I said I don't understand what the argument would be to suggest he is, besides HR.

 

I said, 'Mauer isn't below Oliva, and I'm not sure what argument would say he is.'

 

And I'll also say, if Mauer got traded today (assuming he would agree and could be) it wouldn't bother me at all...I mean besides the talent we'd lose.  I am not a Mauer fan, other than he's really good most of the time so it helps our team.  He's not my favorite player on the team.  He's probably not even in my top 50 favorite players playing right now.

 

I also think too many people like to throw around the words: upset, ridiculous and silly too much when describing people's point's of views, but hey,whatever.

Edited April 1, 2015 by jimmer

[USAFChief]

Oliva's OPS was also partially obtained in an era that caused MLB to lower the mound, because pitching was too dominant. Killebrew's too, for that matter.

 

EDIT: note to self...refresh prior to posting

[Loosey]

I know it's impossible to do but I would really like to know what the general consensus would be on Joe Mauer if he never had his outlier 2009 season.  That season drove up the per year value of his contract and gave people an unreasonable expectation of what he is capable of and since he contract was largely based on that season, the majority of fans expect him to live up to those numbers.  When in actuality he is the guy weve seen the other 10 seasons. 

 

Put his 2008 season into 2009 and it changes the way we think about Joe.  2008 he his .328/.413/.451 (.864) with 9 HR's and 43 doubles.  Given that he was still a catcher that would have been enough to get him a very large contract.  Instead of $23M per year maybe he would have been given $17-$19M per year.  Would everyone still expect .365/.444/.587 28 HR's and 30 doubles. 

 

Basically what I am saying his, I personally think Joe has lived up to expectations.  Just not the new expecations he received once he had the 2009 season.

[jimmer]

I seriously doubt the FO actually believed that what they saw Joe do in 2009 was the Joe they'd continue to see. And, because of that, I doubt it played too much in what his contract was. I imagine if he had just a normal year for him he still would have gotten paid right about what he did.

 

What some fans thought he'd do after seeing his 2009 is a different story. Outlying seasons are rarely what a player is going to continue to do. For me, he's had two disappointing seasons and both were because of injury (2011) or feeling the effects of injuries/concussion (2014).  And all players get hurt. he is not unique in that regard.  A lot of people point to games and/or played at catcher but part of that is on the manager too.  Part of that, at least in the last few years, was Morneau not being able to play and Mauer being the best option for 1B, or not having a great DH and moving Mauer to DH wasn't a detriment in DH production.  I mean, yes he's been hurt. no doubt, but he was also primarily a catcher and most years his games played were in line with what you'd expect from a catcher. I have zero doubt he could have played more games and more games at catcher too. 

Edited April 1, 2015 by jimmer

[Paul Pleiss]

I think I like John's line the best, and for once I agree with the rankings for the gentlemen around the AL Central. 

[GoGonzoJournal]

Zips - .285/.371/.396, 25 2B, 7 HR, 65 R, 61 RBI in 128 games 

Steamer - .283/.366/.399, 27 2B, 8 HR, 58 R, 54 RBI in 118 games

 

Again, the TD team is very optimistic, but I do think Mauer will be better than these numbers strictly because I think he'll play more games. I've got a hunch he plays around 140. I think he's healthier and in better shape than he's ever been entering a season. The move from catcher is going to start paying off. Mark my words.

 

.300/.379/.400 with 34 2B, 10 HR, 70 R, and 67 RBI and improved defense at first base. I rank him third in the league.

[LeatherAntenna]

I seriously doubt the FO actually believed that what they saw Joe do in 2009 was the Joe they'd continue to see. And, because of that, I doubt it played too much in what his contract was. I imagine if he had just a normal year for him he still would have gotten paid right about what he did.

 

What some fans thought he'd do after seeing his 2009 is a different story. Outlying seasons are rarely what a player is going to continue to do. For me, he's had two disappointing seasons and both were because of injury (2011) or feeling the effects of injuries/concussion (2014).  And all players get hurt. he is not unique in that regard.  A lot of people point to games and/or played at catcher but part of that is on the manager too.  Part of that, at least in the last few years, was Morneau not being able to play and Mauer being the best option for 1B, or not having a great DH and moving Mauer to DH wasn't a detriment in DH production.  I mean, yes he's been hurt. no doubt, but he was also primarily a catcher and most years his games played were in line with what you'd expect from a catcher. I have zero doubt he could have played more games and more games at catcher too.

strongly disagree that what he did in 09 didn't play into his contract. He was younger, his body was still developing, and seeing 28 HR from a guy developing into a 235 pound 6 foot 5 inch (remember he was still growing taller just the year past) individual would have any team salivating.

[LeatherAntenna]

So many here defend him and on the basis of being a pure hitter, I agree there is nobody that hits a prettier single up the middle then Joe Mauer. But for 23 million, 130 singles and 4 HRs? That price paid is hurting the Twins, they could use that money for other players, the stat line reinforces the argument to trade him even if you have to pay some of the salary to the acquiring team. Some day 23 million routinely gets paid for a Mauer to hit 130 singles and 4 HRs, or for Carew or Gywnn to do it but not today, and not for some years.

[jimmer]

 

strongly disagree that what he did in 09 didn't play into his contract. He was younger, his body was still developing, and seeing 28 HR from a guy developing into a 235 pound 6 foot 5 inch (remember he was still growing taller just the year past) individual would have any team salivating.

We'll have to agree to disagree.  I don't think the FO actually believed one season way out of the norm for him in regards to HRs was what he'd continue to be.  At least I hope they would be smart enough not to think that.  

 

Getting his 3rd batting title wouldn't have been an outlier for him, he had one the year before and two times in the last three years going into 2009.  A third batting title (in a 4 year span), which is three more batting titles than any other AL catcher in history, he still gets that contract.  If not from the Twins, from someone else.

Edited April 2, 2015 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

So many here defend him and on the basis of being a pure hitter, I agree there is nobody that hits a prettier single up the middle then Joe Mauer. But for 23 million, 130 singles and 4 HRs? That price paid is hurting the Twins, they could use that money for other players, the stat line reinforces the argument to trade him even if you have to pay some of the salary to the acquiring team. Some day 23 million routinely gets paid for a Mauer to hit 130 singles and 4 HRs, or for Carew or Gywnn to do it but not today, and not for some years.

Did that price paid make the Twins continue to drop payroll?  No?  They continued to underspend anyway. They could have spent more, they chose not to.  Mauer's salary didn't stop them

 

The Twins almost doubled their worth this past offseason.  Did it really hurt them?  No.  In 2012 and 2013 combined he was worth a hair over 46M based on what 1 WAR would cost on the open market.  

 

The assumption that the Twins would have gone and spent his salary on some great player from outside the organization just doesn't float.  It's not in their nature and his salary hasn't stopped them from keeping anyone else in the organization who deserved what he got.  His salary has not hurt this team at all.  And by the time any of these supposed stud prospects we have hit the time in their career where they require big money, he'll be off the books.

 

And that's before we talk about what signing the hometown guy means outside the lines in PR and other value, like ticket sales etc.

 

His salary doesn't hurt this team a bit.  If he continues to play like 2014, which I doubt, that would be bad for sure.  But since he's only had two seasons like that and 2012 and 2013 were pretty darn good, i imagine he'll be much better than 2014 Joe.

 

 

Edited April 2, 2015 by jimmer

[Dr. Evil]

The thing that sucks he got hurt and had to change positions. How valuable would he be this year if he were still a catcher? Then all this stuff with pitch framing and handeling pitchers we been seeing posted would not even be an issue.

[LeatherAntenna]

Like your logic but even if the Twins are underspending wouldn't they think even if we are cheap we can stay cheap and acquire some more power with Mauer's payroll curtailed or eliminated?

Y

[LeatherAntenna]

And not withstanding his salary, let's just say he is just gone tomorrow. Now you have first base open to potentially Vargas and Sano trading first and DH. I think those two would have more offensive potential, perhaps far more together then Mauer. Probably we would see 20 plus HR and perhaps a lot more along with the same amount of doubles Joe would hit,, less singles but more total RBIs. And the youngsters would develop.

[jimmer]

 

And not withstanding his salary, let's just say he is just gone tomorrow. Now you have first base open to potentially Vargas and Sano trading first and DH. I think those two would have more offensive potential, perhaps far more together then Mauer. Probably we would see 20 plus HR and perhaps a lot more along with the same amount of doubles Joe would hit,, less singles but more total RBIs. And the youngsters would develop.

A normal Mauer is a run creator. But he doesn't do it in the ways everyone can easily point to like the HR.  But he creates them,  His OBP has value in the TEAM scoring runs. His ability to put bat on ball a lot and move runners over, is valuable. You would surely get more HR from the others, but you'd also lose like 60 points or so in OBP and 50 or so in BA and add Ks and so on. And lose on D too.

 

The HRs would look pretty, but there is more to creating runs than that.   So, now, until these guys prove they can score a wRC+ in the 130s-150s, I still believe that a regular Mauer will help our offense more because we'll have more opps to score runs based on his skills.

 

Having said that, I think it'd be best for Mauer to waive his no trade and let the Twins move him if they actually want to.