Article: Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 187: Roster Reactions & Dozier Deal

[John Bonnes]

Aaron and John talk and/or argue about nearly everything the Twins did in the past week, including demoting Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario to Triple-A, choosing Tommy Milone for the rotation, moving an angry Mike Pelfrey to the bullpen, signing Brian Dozier to a $20 million contract, trusting spring training numbers, and what to drink at Mason's Barre. And then they give away a pair of 20-game Twins season tickets courtesy of the Minnesota Corn Growers Association.

 

You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below.

 

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[Secondary User]

That was a heated episode.  Hope Bonnes is still alive....

[Seth Stohs]

I was waiting to HEAR some punches of something. 

 

And as you know, in baseball, there is only one right way to think... 

[Penthang]

Wow, a lot of arguing about the least meaningful fringes of the roster. I do have to agree with Gleeman though, it would have been nice to see one or two of the contended spots go to a prospect instead of mediocre aging player x. Maybe, just maybe a player with upside could show something instead of just keeping the roster spot warm.

[Shane Wahl]

Gleeman is spot on here.

[savvyspy]

Aaron described the Twins front office philosophy to a tee. They are in LOVE with replacement level players and prefer these players to their supposed top prospects at every turn. This is just further evidence either they don't know how to build a major league roster or their minor league system is VASTLY overrated. I've always held that the former was the case but I'm now in the camp that they are so inept they couldn't develop top prospects if they even wanted to give them a chance which they obviously do not.

[amjgt]

I haven't listened to the episode yet, but this is where I was hoping to find this discussion.

 

I wanted ONE..... all I needed was ONE out-of-the-(Twins typical)-box choice for the 25 man roster. 

 

Meyer... Rosario.... Burdi..... Sano.... Heck, I might have even settled for May.

 

But, no, I got the same uninspiring choices.

[benji21]

Listening to this episode makes me wonder if John even pays attention to baseball. How can he and still have those takes? I was as frustrated as gleeman.

[Seth Stohs]

I think people can say that May should be up, thought I don't think that's an easy, obviously choice. The rest of the moves just make sense. 

 

If there are 2-5 of the young guys up by the end of June, then I'll be annoyed.

[ashbury]

 

I think people can say that May should be up, thought I don't think that's an easy, obviously choice.

He did not impress in his final spring start. The wind was blowing steadily to right. You could chalk that up to bad luck, or you could view it as him letting the Pirate batters have their way. I choose the latter. I would like a pitcher I can trust when the wind is unfavorable (righty facing lefties in this case). A quick tuneup in Rochester and maybe he smooths out a few rough spots like that with good coaching.

[Seth Stohs]

Where I agree more with Aaron is that spring training stats shouldn't come in to play... however, spring training performance should... In other words, it's not about the numbers, it's about the process and some other things that are more visual than the randomness of 40 at bats or 8-12 innings. 

[Shane Wahl]

Gleeman is beyond right about May here. I don't understand how anyone argues based on one stupid start in March . . . it's a very poor idea.

[ashbury]

 

Gleeman is beyond right about May here. I don't understand how anyone argues based on one stupid start in March . . . it's a very poor idea.

Oh.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Oh.

 

It isn't? Basing a decision on one start isn't a very poor idea?

[chopper0080]

 

Where I agree more with Aaron is that spring training stats shouldn't come in to play... however, spring training performance should... In other words, it's not about the numbers, it's about the process and some other things that are more visual than the randomness of 40 at bats or 8-12 innings. 

 

OK, but I know what Jordan Shafer and Shane Robsinson are as MLB players, and I don't know it because of Spring Training.  I know what Mike Pelfrey is, along with Tim Staufer.  I understand Arcia's fielding issues, and Hunter's age.  What is Pelrey going to do that Alex Meyer can't?  What is Tim Staufer going to do that Trevor May can't?  Are you really telling me that Hick's awful hitting is worse than Shafer?  Is Molitor not creative enough to figure a way to get Hicks or Rosario at bats?

 

I get it with Rosario, Sano, Buxton, and Berrios, but what more does AAA offer Hicks, May, and Meyer other than sub par competition?  Allow them to figure out how to get MLB hitters out from the bullpen and possible spot starts.  Force them to figure out how to get MLB hitters out IN the strike zone.  If they fail, they fail.  It will be due to poor scouting more than anything else, and the team can move on.  Inconsistently great is better than consistently bad every day of the week for me, and our roster is consistently bad right now.  Unless Vargas and Santana pick up where they left off last year, it could get real ugly, real quick.

[jokin]

 

Gleeman is beyond right about May here. I don't understand how anyone argues based on one stupid start in March . . . it's a very poor idea.

 

Ohh, they've gone many fathoms deeper in some of their roster logic this spring.  Tommy "the Minimizer" Milone comes to mind, for one.

 "Throwin BB's" Blaine Boyer is another,

 Timmy "Lean Cuisine" is a third. 

[ashbury]

 

It isn't? Basing a decision on one start isn't a very poor idea?

(Now that you've dropped "unfathomably stupid" I'll respond.)

 

But where did I say that? I noted he had a poor start.

 

What if it's a close decision and you tell (indirectly) the guys vying for the job that the last start for each will matter. That's not the same thing, is it? Don't you like to give a player a challenge, and give him some negative reinforcement if he comes up short? I have no sources inside the clubhouse but this is one guess.

 

Or even if you don't tell them, if it's close then the last start will matter.

 

But again, I said he had a bad start, and explained some background that might not be apparent from a box score. It didn't deserve being called unfathomably stupid.

[Seth Stohs]

 

OK, but I know what Jordan Shafer and Shane Robsinson are as MLB players, and I don't know it because of Spring Training.  I know what Mike Pelfrey is, along with Tim Staufer.  I understand Arcia's fielding issues, and Hunter's age.  What is Pelrey going to do that Alex Meyer can't?  What is Tim Staufer going to do that Trevor May can't?  Are you really telling me that Hick's awful hitting is worse than Shafer?  Is Molitor not creative enough to figure a way to get Hicks or Rosario at bats?

 

I get it with Rosario, Sano, Buxton, and Berrios, but what more does AAA offer Hicks, May, and Meyer other than sub par competition?  Allow them to figure out how to get MLB hitters out from the bullpen and possible spot starts.  Force them to figure out how to get MLB hitters out IN the strike zone.  If they fail, they fail.  It will be due to poor scouting more than anything else, and the team can move on.  Inconsistently great is better than consistently bad every day of the week for me, and our roster is consistently bad right now.  Unless Vargas and Santana pick up where they left off last year, it could get real ugly, real quick.

 

I could probably answer each individual question. I do agree with John in his comment that the Twins still believe in Aaron Hicks enough to think he can get better and learn in AAA.

 

May's MLB performance last year didn't scream promotion.Meyer's BB/9 rate and 

tough spring don't scream promotion. Both of them have a chance to be solid in time, but do have things to work on.

 

Guys like Schafer and Robinson are short-term stopgaps allowing those other guys (including Buxton) to continue to develop. 

 

Rosario didn't hit last year. He didn't hit this spring. I don't think anyone should make an argument that he should have made the team. What he did last year was FAR less than what Aaron Hicks did at AA before he got promoted. 

 

What can Pelfrey do that Meyer can't at this point? Throw strikes. 

 

These moves are short-term. They're about the bigger picture. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Gleeman is beyond right about May here. I don't understand how anyone argues based on one stupid start in March . . . it's unfathomably stupid.

 

I would agree. I think that Molitor and Ryan would agree. I think Milone was the decision coming into camp (and that was who I had in pre-spring and during-spring roster projections), and May would have had to have been perfect this spring. His missed time is probably a bigger factor than anything else.

 

Also, relax, man!

 

 

[Wookiee of the Year]

 

Where I agree more with Aaron is that spring training stats shouldn't come in to play... however, spring training performance should... In other words, it's not about the numbers, it's about the process and some other things that are more visual than the randomness of 40 at bats or 8-12 innings. 

I totally agree with this in theory--but in practice, I'm not sure I've seen evidence the Twins are good evaluators of process during spring training. Aaron Hicks puts up great numbers in Spring Training 2013 and Spring Training 2014, and the Twins said, "Yup, he's our guy!" Maybe there should have been some process clues that he wasn't ready.

 

On the flip side, Jason Bartlett puts up a .093/.152/.093 line in Spring Training 2014, and the Twins say, "We liked his process. We're not worried about him." I don't know what they saw in his process that told him that, but it would suggest they need to hire some new evaluators.

 

If I want to be charitable to the Twins this spring, I say their decision-makers really are convinced they were a good team last year but caught some bad breaks. I'm of the belief that on a bad team, you want to take risks on inconsistent guys who flash greatness, while a good team should fill the margins with reliable mediocrity where there's no risk the bottom will fall out. If the Twins really think they're a contender, maybe that's why they went for reliability.

 

Of course, I don't think they're a contender, and so I remind myself the roster on May 15 and even July 1 is more important than the roster on Opening Day. If that roster still isn't willing to take chances with young guys who lead with their upside, then I'll be very disappointed. Note: I was very disappointed in 2014.

[jimmer]

'If I want to be charitable to the Twins this spring, I say their decision-makers really are convinced they were a good team last year but caught some bad breaks.'

 

I SERIOUSLY hope they don't actually think that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I.Dont.Get.May. Everything else didn't bother me that much. Hicks needs AAA time, and I think that's the right choice, even though his replacements might put up the same OPS. We've been saying for a while that things need to be earned, that goes for rookies too, and Hicks certainly hasn't earned anything. For that matter, neither has Rosario. Rosario has no business in MLB as he hasn't hit AA consistently yet. I see a lot of people calling for him right now who will be livid if (when?) he fails. May started out bad but got better. He was a pretty decent pitcher his second month. Does he have stuff to learn? Yes, but he's likely to be better than Milone right now while still learning said stuff. I'm a bit surprised there weren't a few younger spots in the pen, especially with what's coming up, but May is the one that I'm scratching my head on right now.

[Wookiee of the Year]

 

'If I want to be charitable to the Twins this spring, I say their decision-makers really are convinced they were a good team last year but caught some bad breaks.'

 

I SERIOUSLY hope they don't actually think that.

Rob Antony: "I think a lot of people look at it and go 'Geez, you won 70 games last year and now you think there's going to be a 12-game improvement? In one year that might be tough.' I think last year we underachieved. I felt we should have won 76/77 games. So to say that we should get over .500 this year, I don't think that's a major thing. I think we ought to be able to improve five, six, seven games over last year. I look at it as what we should have won rather than what we did win. I hope that's not unrealistic. I don't think it is. But I think 2015 should be a year where we're competitive and in the mix and guys take steps forward." --From TwinkieTown, on February 3.

 

I'm also fairly certain I've heard Mike Berardino say or Tweet as much: The Twins really do believe they were several wins better last year. And I know Terry Ryan said at TwinsFest that if they can get to 85 or 86 wins this year, that could be enough to win the division.

 

To be clear: This is not an analysis I buy, but the Twins are certainly selling it. And I readily admit selling something's not the same as buying into it yourself. But I've heard it in enough places in enough different contexts to think the Twins might believe it.

[jimmer]

Sad

[Seth Stohs]

Well, it is a business, and they do need to sell hope and optimism in spring training. Even if there are those that choose to be negative regardless of the situation, not matter what. I think they do have a lot more talent. I predicted 73 wins for the Twins a couple of nights ago, and I think 76-77 is realistic. But I do think the division is tough. 

[jimmer]

I don't think a person has to be one that 'always chooses to be negative' to clearly see that this team was not good last year. Seems to be an unnecessary jab at people who seem to have issues with a team that has lost 90+ the last four years and can say, 'hey, maybe there's a reason for that.  main reason being, the team isn't that good.'

 

Shouldn't the negative outweigh the positive when a team is that bad for that long?

Edited April 1, 2015 by jimmer

[chopper0080]

 

I could probably answer each individual question. I do agree with John in his comment that the Twins still believe in Aaron Hicks enough to think he can get better and learn in AAA.

 

May's MLB performance last year didn't scream promotion.Meyer's BB/9 rate and 

tough spring don't scream promotion. Both of them have a chance to be solid in time, but do have things to work on.

 

Guys like Schafer and Robinson are short-term stopgaps allowing those other guys (including Buxton) to continue to develop. 

 

Rosario didn't hit last year. He didn't hit this spring. I don't think anyone should make an argument that he should have made the team. What he did last year was FAR less than what Aaron Hicks did at AA before he got promoted. 

 

What can Pelfrey do that Meyer can't at this point? Throw strikes. 

 

These moves are short-term. They're about the bigger picture. 

 

I get neither May or Meyer set the world on fire, but throwing strikes is something they can learn at the MLB level rather than get fringe players to chase filthly stuff outside the zone the MLB guys will laugh at.  At some point the Twins are going to have to stop protecting 25 and 26 year old professionals and put them in the deep end.  Why not do so when expectations are low so they can be at full speed and can take the load off the hitter when they move up.

 

Also, if these guys are good enough to beat out Pelfrey, Stauffer, Shafer, and/or Robinson, they probably shouldn't be sold as the future of the team.  Again, I just don't see any reason Hicks, Meyer, and May aren't learning at the pro level right now other than they just aren't that good.  If that is the case, then the team probably shouldn't be preaching those guys as the future of our staff.

[Thrylos]

One thing that Gleeman got wrong:

 

Yes we have seen what Terry Ryan is all about, but not for 15 years.  21.  1994. 

[USAFChief]

Well, it is a business, and they do need to sell hope and optimism in spring training. Even if there are those that choose to be negative regardless of the situation, not matter what. I think they do have a lot more talent. I predicted 73 wins for the Twins a couple of nights ago, and I think 76-77 is realistic. But I do think the division is tough.

 

I would think to sell hope and optimism you'd try to put new players on the roster that generate hope and optimism.

 

Adding Robinson, Staufer, and the like to a 90 loss team doesn't do that for me. It certainly doesn't scream "a lot more talent."

 

At least not to me, and I doubt I'm in a huge minority.

[Paul Pleiss]

I really hope John was blackout drunk during this episode, otherwise I have no idea how he can defend half of his opinions. Holy cow. Whenever Aaron Gleeman is the voice of reason I get scared.