Article: Twins Say Now Is Not The Time For Trevor May

[jimmer]

 

Whether you agree with the final decisions or not, I think the fact that these discussions are happening points to a problem of roster management. When you have been very bad for 4 straight years, and much of the fan base is hoping a highly rated, and hyped, farm system is going to be the cure, why do continue to fill your roster with Robinson, Pelfrey, Milone, Boyer, Duensing, Stauffer, etc. These are not guys that are going to lead any team to contention or even respecability. Heck they ADDED or resigned 1/2 these guys in the off-season, they actively went looking for mediocre players that would in all likelihood block young guys, who need to learn some at the major league level.  Either that or the young guys aren't very good to begin with AND we really don't have any hope for the future. It just seems the FO doesn't have a plan, they just grab whoever is willing to sign for a couple million and throw them out there.

Have faith man,  the Twins FO is doing everything right and there's always a way to justify that's the case.  So sit back and enjoy the show.  I mean, if you like 5 season repeats.

[jokin]

 

Still not sure what this -- "we'll see Meyer and May within 2 months" -- is based on.  If it's 2014, we didn't go to a non-rainout 7th starter until late June.  (If it's based on 2012-2013, when we dipped in the starting well earlier, those were much less stable rotations than the 2014-2015 ones.)

 

Did I miss something saying that Pelfrey is permanently a member of the bullpen now?  Otherwise, isn't it pretty safe to assume he will get a chance if the need for a spot start or replacement starter arises?

 

Are people still easily fooled or fooling themselves on this "we'll see them in two months."  It ended up essentially being 3 months before a call-up for Gibson two years ago, and pretty much after he had used up his arm in AAA in first post-TJ season.  There was no reason not to call up May and Meyer by some time in May last year.

 

And besides the obvious choice of Pelfrey as the first SP to jump into the rotation, maybe add Darnell or Wheeler to that list- based on previous precedent..  (The excuse used in the past for not calling up Gibson, May and Meyer was "consistency", this year the Twins apparently are looking for "minimization", we'll have to see who minimizes best down in AAA).

Edited March 31, 2015 by jokin

[USAFChief]

 

Still not sure what this -- "we'll see Meyer and May within 2 months" -- is based on.  If it's 2014, we didn't go to a non-rainout 7th starter until late June.  (If it's based on 2012-2013, when we dipped in the starting well earlier, those were much less stable rotations than the 2014-2015 ones.)

 

Did I miss something saying that Pelfrey is permanently a member of the bullpen now?  Otherwise, isn't it pretty safe to assume he will get a chance if the need for a spot start or replacement starter arises?

I posted this elsewhere, seems appropriate here, too.

 

I'd actually be pretty surprised (and livid) if, when the the Twins need a starter, Pelfrey gets the first shot.  I think it'd almost certainly be May, given health and any resemblence to adequate performance in Rochester.  Probably Meyer next, after May.

 

I think the Pelfrey in the rotation ship has sailed, barring catastrophic losses of starting pitching.

 

Of course, eventually I'll be proven wrong on something.  Even if it's about being proven wrong.  

[SweetOne69]

 

I posted this elsewhere, seems appropriate here, too.

 

I'd actually be pretty surprised (and livid) if, when the the Twins need a starter, Pelfrey gets the first shot.  I think it'd almost certainly be May, given health and any resemblence to adequate performance in Rochester.  Probably Meyer next, after May.

 

I think the Pelfrey in the rotation ship has sailed, barring catastrophic losses of starting pitching.

 

Of course, eventually I'll be proven wrong on something.  Even if it's about being proven wrong.  

 

I think it depends on the situation.  If one of the starting 5 is injured and goes on the DL, I agree that it will be somebody from Rochester.  On the other hand, if for some reason they need to skip a guy (sickness or can't get loose) then it will be Pelfrey.

[jokin]

 

I posted this elsewhere, seems appropriate here, too.

 

I'd actually be pretty surprised (and livid) if, when the the Twins need a starter, Pelfrey gets the first shot.  I think it'd almost certainly be May, given health and any resemblence to adequate performance in Rochester.  Probably Meyer next, after May.

 

I think the Pelfrey in the rotation ship has sailed, barring catastrophic losses of starting pitching.

 

Of course, eventually I'll be proven wrong on something.  Even if it's about being proven wrong.  

 

Seems like you created an excellent potential polling question and possible quiz contest.  (And personally, I think we all better hope for the best, but prepare to be livid).

[jay]

 

Have faith man,  the Twins FO is doing everything right and there's always a way to justify that's the case.  So sit back and enjoy the show.  I mean, if you like 5 season repeats.

 

The case that I can see made is that the Twins haven't gone full head-first committal rebuild like the Astros and Marlins did. That's the far-end, extreme approach and it has positive and negative traits just the same as the local approach.

 

There was a lot wrong by 2012 and I'd think reasonable folks both understand and believe that it takes some combination of time and luck to work back from that. It's also hard to believe the front office is full of the idiots they're made out to be every day with no plan, strategy, direction or concept of what they're doing.

 

I still haven't seen anyone make a believeable case that real-life prospects with promotable MiLB performance have been blocked from MLB by these old guys that are still around.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the Pelfrey in the rotation ship has sailed, barring catastrophic losses of starting pitching.

That would suggest the Twins were not operating in good faith when they let Pelfrey compete for the job this spring.  Not sure that I buy that.

 

Pelfrey may have ranked 3rd at the beginning and 3rd at the end, but I believe they view him as a starter until they say otherwise.

Edited March 31, 2015 by spycake

[jay]

 

Are people still easily fooled or fooling themselves on this "we'll see them in two months."  It ended up essentially being 3 months before a call-up for Gibson two years ago, and pretty much after he had used up his arm in AAA in first post-TJ season.  There was no reason not to call up May and Meyer by some time in May last year.

 

And besides the obvious choice of Pelfrey as the first SP to jump into the rotation, maybe add Darnell or Wheeler to that list- based on previous precedent..  (The excuse used in the past for not calling up Gibson, May and Meyer was "consistency", this year the Twins apparently are looking for "minimization", we'll have to see who minimizes best down in AAA).

 

The consistency "excuse" looks to be plenty valid based on the results.  Consistency is still exactly what we're waiting to see from Gibson and is still talked about.  May sure didn't show it last summer and Meyer is the furthest from it.

 

If Gibson is the best case to disbelieve a "we'll see them in 2 months" viewpoint, I don't buy that there's an appreciable difference between calling a guy up in 2 months vs 3 months.

[whydidnt]

 

 

I still haven't seen anyone make a believeable case that real-life prospects with promotable MiLB performance have been blocked from MLB by these old guys that are still around.

 

Really, you think Blaine Boyer is a better pick then Tonkin or Burdi for this teams bull pen? Both Meyer and May have a history of success at both AA and AAA, and are mature by prospect standards, we nee to see Tommy Milone or Mike Pelfry instead of these guys.  Aaron Hicks, despite all his troubles, hit's lefties pretty well, why do we send him to AAA and keep Robinson at the Major League level to presumably play against lefties. You would hope teams would make the decision to go with players that have a low upside, but a known floor when they are contending or close to it. When you have been lousy for 4 straight seasons and have guys that have produced at the minor league level, it might be time to give some of the high upside guys a shot. I'm not talking about blowing up the team, like Houston did, I'm talking about not signing mediocre 30 year olds with no upside to block players that have done well at the higher level of the minors.

 

The Twins are either a poor judge of talent, as evidenced by trading established players for May and Meyer or they are awful at developing players since they don't have confidence to promote them over guys with no upside. Which is it?

[whydidnt]

 

The consistency "excuse" looks to be plenty valid based on the results.  Consistency is still exactly what we're waiting to see from Gibson and is still talked about.  May sure didn't show it last summer and Meyer is the furthest from it.

 

If Gibson is the best case to disbelieve a "we'll see them in 2 months" viewpoint, I don't buy that there's an appreciable difference between calling a guy up in 2 months vs 3 months.

It would only be valid if the guys they used instead of Gibson, etc. actually consistently produced, which they haven't. All the Twins are doing is trading inconsistent, terrible, performance from a veteran in place of the chance that a guy like Gibson or Meyer, or whoever, might not be consistent. Most young players need to play at the major league level for a while to adjust and become consistent, the Twins seem intent on delaying that forever. 

[Halsey Hall]

 

Really, you think Blaine Boyer is a better pick then Tonkin or Burdi for this teams bull pen? Both Meyer and May have a history of success at both AA and AAA, and are mature by prospect standards, we nee to see Tommy Milone or Mike Pelfry instead of these guys.  Aaron Hicks, despite all his troubles, hit's lefties pretty well, why do we send him to AAA and keep Robinson at the Major League level to presumably play against lefties. You would hope teams would make the decision to go with players that have a low upside, but a known floor when they are contending or close to it. When you have been lousy for 4 straight seasons and have guys that have produced at the minor league level, it might be time to give some of the high upside guys a shot. I'm not talking about blowing up the team, like Houston did, I'm talking about not signing mediocre 30 year olds with no upside to block players that have done well at the higher level of the minors.

 

The Twins are either a poor judge of talent, as evidenced by trading established players for May and Meyer or they are awful at developing players since they don't have confidence to promote them over guys with no upside. Which is it?

Have you been down here and watched.  And over at the minors and watched?  If not so, best to trust those that have.  Boyer is a better pick than Tonkin or Burdi now.  Tonkin isn't lighting it up in the minors and Burdi's still a ways away.  Hicks belongs in the minors. 

 

Sheesh, a couple weeks ago posters wanted the best team to break camp.  That's just what's happening and now more complaining. 

[jay]

The Twins are either a poor judge of talent, as evidenced by trading established players for May and Meyer or they are awful at developing players since they don't have confidence to promote them over guys with no upside. Which is it?

I've seen this false binary statement elsewhere here and it's a load of complete garbage. There's plenty of middle ground on both sides of that question.

 

The ability to evaluate talent is quite obviously based on a lot more than two prospects. Not starting the year with them on the MLB roster says little about their development capability either.

 

I don't understand the idea some have that zero is gained by having them in AAA -- there's absolutely benefit to both the player and the team. I'd personally prefer they be on the MLB team now, but they aren't going to fail by starting 2015 in AAA. Either they'll be successful and get promoted (while also continuing to develop) or they won't. If they aren't successful in AAA, it's crazy to say they would have been successful in MLB by any fashion.

[Dr. Evil]

You should post more often, paulblair715. Oh, and you were a great player, fun to watch, so thank you for your service.

 

We ALL want to see what Meyer and May can do. We will too, probably within a month or two. My question is, what did people see or not see here in the past few weeks regarding those two? Meyer was awful mechanically in his last start, by his own admission. May tiered in the 3rd inning in his last start I believe, and hadn't been stretched out. And it's not like Milone was looking terrible too. We're all tired of scrap heap guys, but I don't view any of our starting five as being in that category (for once).

 

The problem with starting May and Meyer is you have to jettison Milone and Pelfrey BEFORE you know what you have instead of after. And it's a risky assumption to say you can replace them immediately with someone else from the minors with "potential". So I don't see much wrong with the temporary decision they made, despite my passionate yearning to see the young guys in action.

Its preseason for the kids too so the probably need to be afforded just as much if not more chance and benefit of the doubt than the vets due as far as being allowed excusable performances as they tune up for the season. Don't excuse the vets or say they were just workin on something and then send a high end prospect down for not being perfect.

[jokin]

 

The consistency "excuse" looks to be plenty valid based on the results.  Consistency is still exactly what we're waiting to see from Gibson and is still talked about.  May sure didn't show it last summer and Meyer is the furthest from it.

 

If Gibson is the best case to disbelieve a "we'll see them in 2 months" viewpoint, I don't buy that there's an appreciable difference between calling a guy up in 2 months vs 3 months.

 

Great, then I'll mark you down as all in favor of more of the same until further notice? ie, Deduno, Darnell, Johnson, Walters, Albers, DeVries, et al, ad infinitum....

 

And besides Hughes, who else has been Mr Consistency in the Twins rotation during this decade of pitching futility?

 

And yeah, calling up Gibson in 2013, clearly the best AAA option, instead of continuing the pointless starting pitching shuttle shuffle between non-major league entities in the midst of a pointless season, Liam, Samuel, PJ, Pedro, Cole, on say, right after his May 8th outing for Rochester in 2013, would have had Gibson throwing for the Twins when his arm was still strong.  It would have given him at least 9 extra starts with a much fresher arm, and accelerated his acclimation to the majors.  

Edited April 1, 2015 by jokin

[whydidnt]

Have you been down here and watched.  And over at the minors and watched?  If not so, best to trust those that have.  Boyer is a better pick than Tonkin or Burdi now.  Tonkin isn't lighting it up in the minors and Burdi's still a ways away.  Hicks belongs in the minors. 

 

Sheesh, a couple weeks ago posters wanted the best team to break camp.  That's just what's happening and now more complaining.

 

Blaine Boyer has 8 years of major league experience as a reliever with an ERA of 4.63. I think that speaks more for his true ability than 4 weeks of sping training. Really, what is the point of having him on our major league roster at this point? Because he "battles" and is a good guy? If he's truly better than our younger options then our future is much worse than most of us hope.

 

I would debate you that this is the best team too, it's certainly has the most mediocre veterans though.

[whydidnt]

I've seen this false binary statement elsewhere here and it's a load of complete garbage. There's plenty of middle ground on both sides of that question.

The ability to evaluate talent is quite obviously based on a lot more than two prospects. Not starting the year with them on the MLB roster says little about their development capability either.

I don't understand the idea some have that zero is gained by having them in AAA -- there's absolutely benefit to both the player and the team. I'd personally prefer they be on the MLB team now, but they aren't going to fail by starting 2015 in AAA. Either they'll be successful and get promoted (while also continuing to develop) or they won't. If they aren't successful in AAA, it's crazy to say they would have been successful in MLB by any fashion.

What's false about it? The proof is in the results, and this team has had lousy results for 4 straight years. What recent moves has the current front office made that shows they are up to the task of putting together a winning major league team? Where are all those diamonds in the rough Ryan is supposed to find. Where are all those unknown minor league players we got for an aging veteran at he trade deadline? In the last 3 years, what besides signing Phil Hugh's has the FO done that has turned out to be a big positive for the team. These are things you should consider before rushing to defend moves like this?

[Mike Sixel]

Replace 2015 with 2014....and those are the same words I read last year. And, Meyer never came up, and May barely did. My point about their age was no to let birdwatcher try to prove that the Twins are not slow at promoting players....but that if they were really good prospects, they would be up by now. .....since that are 25.

[jay]

What's false about it?

In direct response to the false binary question about the FO as a whole based solely on May and Meyer, maybe this part got missed...

"The ability to evaluate talent is quite obviously based on a lot more than two prospects. Not starting the year with them on the MLB roster says little about their development capability either."

 

And the rest of that argument is shifting further and further toward just stating the FO is inept. That's great. It'd be an even bigger mischaracterization of my position and colossal waste of time "defending" them or trying to convince some folks here of anything different.

Edited April 1, 2015 by jay

[IndianaTwin]

 

I think it depends on the situation.  If one of the starting 5 is injured and goes on the DL, I agree that it will be somebody from Rochester.  On the other hand, if for some reason they need to skip a guy (sickness or can't get loose) then it will be Pelfrey.

Agree that it depends on situation. I think they give May and Meyer at least a month or so in Rochester. If they need someone because of injury in the first few weeks, Pelfrey is probably still stretched out and would get the nod. If it goes much beyond that, Pelfrey will either have 1) pitched too poorly in the bullpen to be considered for the rotation; or 2) pitched well enough in the bullpen to be deemed too valuable to take out of that role. 

 

I'd be glad to have option 2 work itself out. I still think it could happen.

 

[jokin]

 

 Pelfrey will either have or 2) pitched well enough in the bullpen to be deemed too valuable to take out of that role. 

 

I'd be glad to have option 2 work itself out. I still think it could happen.

 

This scenario would be the best lemonade out of lemons story of the year-  "The Accidental Wade Davis" effect?

[Dr. Evil]

In direct response to the false binary question about the FO as a whole based solely on May and Meyer, maybe this part got missed...

"The ability to evaluate talent is quite obviously based on a lot more than two prospects. Not starting the year with them on the MLB roster says little about their development capability either."

And the rest of that argument is shifting further and further toward just stating the FO is inept. That's great. It'd be an even bigger mischaracterization of my position and colossal waste of time "defending" them or trying to convince some folks here of anything different.

I just think.........folks are leaning towards this front office as inept. Poor results followed by the same old same is becoming valid through repeatability.

[Dr. Evil]

Regarding my above post, I could have misinterpreted what was being said in my response. Sorry if I did. No disrespect.

[Dr. Evil]

Jay is at a level of writing that borders on gifted and I'm afraid my poor reading skills may have had me misrepresenting. Not my intent.

[whydidnt]

 

In direct response to the false binary question about the FO as a whole based solely on May and Meyer, maybe this part got missed...
"The ability to evaluate talent is quite obviously based on a lot more than two prospects. Not starting the year with them on the MLB roster says little about their development capability either."

And the rest of that argument is shifting further and further toward just stating the FO is inept. That's great. It'd be an even bigger mischaracterization of my position and colossal waste of time "defending" them or trying to convince some folks here of anything different.

Actually, I never said the handling of May and Meyer was the sole reason that I thought the FO was failing. I simply used them as another example of potential failure. And your stance feels a lot like mine - in convincing some folks here that the front office can do no wrong, and since they are baseball professionals they must be right, and I must be wrong.

 

We'll have to agree to disagree on this, but I don't think it's a false binary to say that the Twins have been bad for several years, yet continue to manage their roster in the same manner, somehow wishing for different results. In my mind that means they are doing a poor job and are unwilling to change in an effort to improve. We hear Terry Ryan say that things are going to change, but then we see the same old roster decisions. At what point should they try something different? Do they have to lose 90+ games a dozen years in a row? Really what line has to be crossed?

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

Replace 2015 with 2014....and those are the same words I read last year. And, Meyer never came up, and May barely did. My point about their age was no to let birdwatcher try to prove that the Twins are not slow at promoting players....but that if they were really good prospects, they would be up by now. .....since that are 25.

 

I think Meyer and May could be very good MLB pitchers.   But players tend to click at different times.  Two of the biggest success stores on our team right now are Dozier and Plouffe. I looked at minor league baseballs top prospects from 2009 to 2011 and neither was listed as a top 20 prospect.   Both came up around 25.

 

My point is not all players need to be up at 22 in order to be good and for others and it probably would not have been in their best interest anyway.

 

I am sticking to my theory that from 2002 to 2009 we didn't draft very well and we drafted young high school players that are typically in the minors a long time.  In addition, we had a contending team with solid to good veterans at most positions.  Less talent + fewer available positions = prospects spending a lot of time in the minors.   

 

From 2013 to 2016 we will probablly have Hicks, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, and Arcia debut between 20 and 23 (most 21 or 22).  It says very little about our organizations theory on moving guys through the system and more about talent and open positions.  Looking at farm system rankings during these two time periods probably tells the story.

Edited April 1, 2015 by tobi0040

[whydidnt]

 

I think Meyer and May could be very good MLB pitchers.   But players tend to click at different times.  Two of the biggest success stores on our team right now are Dozier and Plouffe. I looked at minor league baseballs top prospects from 2009 to 2011 and neither was listed as a top 20 prospect.   Both came up around 25.

 

My point is not all players need to be up at 22 in order to be good and for others and it probably would not have been in their best interest anyway.

 

I am sticking to my theory that from 2002 to 2009 we didn't draft very well and we drafted young high school players that are typically in the minors a long time.  In addition, we had a contending team with solid to good veterans at most positions.  Less talent + fewer available positions = prospects spending a lot of time in the minors.   

 

From 2013 to 2016 we will probablly have Hicks, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, and Arcia debut between 20 and 23 (most 21 or 22).  It says very little about our organizations theory on moving guys through the system and more about talent and open positions.  Looking at farm system rankings during these two time periods probably tells the story.

I tend to agree with this, but did you notice in that list of players, only 1 out of 6 is a pitcher, and really there is no guaranty he doesn't get held back until he's "more consistent". It does seem that the Twins are pretty slow at moving pitchers through the system, even college guys, like Meyer who lead AAA in K's are held back. Meanwhile the White Sox move Sale, Reed and Rodon up within months of being drafted and they all excel. Not saying there isn't a gap in talent between these guys, just a huge difference in philosophy on how to teach these guys how to pitch.  

[tobi0040]

 

I tend to agree with this, but did you notice in that list of players, only 1 out of 6 is a pitcher, and really there is no guaranty he doesn't get held back until he's "more consistent". It does seem that the Twins are pretty slow at moving pitchers through the system, even college guys, like Meyer who lead AAA in K's are held back. Meanwhile the White Sox move Sale, Reed and Rodon up within months of being drafted and they all excel. Not saying there isn't a gap in talent between these guys, just a huge difference in philosophy on how to teach these guys how to pitch.  

 

There is a definite trend.  But I think this is a causation/correlation issue again.  Did we promote few pitchers because we have a different criteria or did we lack pitching talent to promote?

 

Here are the first round picks we spent on pitchers from 2002 to 2010.  Keep in mind these are picks primarily in the 20-50 range.

 

The one's that have reached MLB with debut age (Perkins 23, Garza 22, and Gibson, who was knocking on the door at 22.  You can add Liriano who we got via trade that was up here at 21.  When the talent is there these guys don't waste away at AAA. 

 

Here is the list of flops:

 

Hunt, Gutierrez, Waldrop, Fox, Rainville, Wimmers, and Bashore.

 

You have a bunch of guys that never made the show, let alone were promotable at 21 or 22.

 

[whydidnt]

 

There is a definite trend.  But I think this is a causation/correlation issue again.  Did we promote few pitchers because we have a different criteria or did we lack pitching talent to promote?

 

 

 

You make a very good point. There haven't been enough "good" guys in the system to draw firm conclusions. However the last 3 guys - Gibson, May and Meyer, that have done pretty well have definitely been more slowly promoted than is typical for most other teams, that's all we have to go on, but it is a small sample size. 

 

My frustration is that these guys have done pretty well in the minors but are being blocked by guys that aren't very good and don't have much upside.

[tobi0040]

 

You make a very good point. There haven't been enough "good" guys in the system to draw firm conclusions. However the last 3 guys - Gibson, May and Meyer, that have done pretty well have definitely been more slowly promoted than is typical for most other teams, that's all we have to go on, but it is a small sample size. 

 

My frustration is that these guys have done pretty well in the minors but are being blocked by guys that aren't very good and don't have much upside.

 

 

 

 

I don't know that I agree. At 22 Gibson went from A ball to AAA.  The next season he had 95 IP at AAA and really struggled (4.81 ERA), turns out he needed tommy john and that is why he was struggling.

 

 

 

 

May and Meyer were in another teams system until 22 and 23.  One was in high A and the other had a 4.87 ERA at AA. 

So when you go case by case it seems to me that neither of these guys was coming up at the 22/23 range that are deemed quick.

 

Edited April 1, 2015 by tobi0040

[jokin]

 

I don't know that I agree. At 22 Gibson went from A ball to AAA.  The next season he had 95 IP at AAA and really struggled (4.81 ERA), turns out he needed tommy john and that is why he was struggling.

 

 

 

 

May and Meyer were in another teams system until 22 and 23.  One was in high A and the other had a 4.87 ERA at AA. 

So when you go case by case it seems to me that neither of these guys was coming up at the 22/23 range that are deemed quick.

 

But they all were slow-balled in what should have been a May debut for each in their "I've proved I'm ready and I'm coming up" years.  Non-entity after non-entity were routinely promoted in front of each of them.