Article: Tommy Milone Is Tommy Milone

[John Bonnes]

I've been calling the 5th starter outings "tryouts," which sort of implies they count for something. It's not totally clear they do.

 

Tommy Milone had his - probably last - tryout Thursday afternoon. I'll give you the numbers, because some of you might be interested - 5 IP, 3 ER, 6H, 3K, 2 BB. But a more complete summarization was that he pitched like the fairly good version of Tommy Milone. That is not the guy that Twins fans saw last summer, but he's also not going to be anything much better than a back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher.He has four pitches, but his best fastball tops out in the highish 80s. He got a few strikeouts on changeups. He is best getting ahead in the count and you worry about him when he falls behind or is going through the lineup multiple times. He needs to manage a baseball game the way less-talented quarterbacks manage a football game. He needs to not make mistakes. He needs to mix things up. He needs a little luck.

 

And unless something drastic changes, that is who he is going to be. What we learned this spring is that nothing has changed drastically, but he might be good enough to hold a spot in a rotation. And that, incidentally, is still a pretty nice player to have in the organization when the only thing the team gave up is a backup outfielder, and only needs to pay him first year arbitration money.

 

Seeing a performance like this, it is easy to mock the idea that ANY of the stuff seen at spring training should be used in the roster decision-making process. After all, spring training is, by definition, a small sample size. It is a fraction of the available information we have on these guys. Beyond obvious questions like "Is this guy healthy" or "Has something changed drastically" it shouldn't be used to answer many questions.

 

And for the most part, that is the way it works. More than 20 of the available roster spots on the 25-man roster were going to certain guys provided they weren't injured. The remaining spots are either pretty low leverage (like the last spots in the bullpen) or choosing among less than ideal options. OR finding out whether someone is "ready."

 

For instance, the center field competition would have been over had Aaron Hicks (again) demonstrated he is ready for the majors. As late as this weekend Manager Paul Molitor didn't know who the starting center fielder is, which demonstrates that hasn't happened.

 

Entering camp, I wondered if the same wasn't true of Trevor May and the fifth starter spot. But then May got sick and Milone was the one pitching in the major league fields and people started talking about Pelfrey and....

 

On Tuesday, I thought the three starts by Milone, May and Mike Pelfrey would all be important. Today, I'm wondering if the only one that really matters is that of May. The others are known commodities and their last couple of starts have confirmed that they are known commodities. I also wonder, given that we won't know when Pelfrey will next pitch until tomorrow, that he might already be out of the competition.

 

If all that is true, then tomorrow's start is going to be much more fun to watch, as it truly counts for something. And it is wholly appropriate that it does.

 

Twins Takes

• Twins lost 5-4 in 10 innings on the road versus the Red Sox. Spring training games often end tied after nine innings but Molitor wanted to see relief prospect Jake Reed pitch. Reed retired the first batter he faced, but threw a first pitch slider to Rusney Castillo which ended up barely clearing the Faux Green Monster at jetBlue field.

• Milone was relieved by Tim Stauffer, who has drawn a lot of commentary in our forums after my bullpen story. Given that Twins fans are not real familiar with him, it's easy to view him as a soft-throwing failed fifth starter candidate, but that's not the case. He pitched out of the bullpen for the Padres last year and racked up 57K in 56.1 IP as a reliever, and posted a 2.56 ERA. Those are awfully good setup man numbers.

His poor camp is mostly a result of his failed fifth starter attempts, but today didn't do a ton to help his numbers. He got two K in 1.2 IP, but gave up four hits, though he was also the victim of a little bad luck. The worst part was that he walked in a run. He's not in any danger of not making the roster and Molitor noted in the postgame talk that Stauffer was throwing harder. But Stauffer might have a slow start this season or be used in lower leverage roles until the Twins see the guy he is supposed to be.

• Stauffer was pulled after walking in the run and replaced by Mark Hamburger. Hamburger was outstanding again, striking out two and giving up one hit in 2.1 IP. I had him as the odd man out in my bullpen calculus story yesterday, but its worth noting that he has put up far better strikeout numbers than Blaine Boyer or even the hard-throwing J.R. Graham. Hamburger now has 10 K in 9.2IP, versus 5K in 9.2 IP for Boyer and 6 K in 9.0 IP for Graham. I still think the odds are against him, but Hamburger would come north if it was up to me. I want to see more of this kid. I expect we will, one way or the other, later this year.

• Finally, regarding center field, Shane Robinson started in center field and got a hit in his first at-bat but also struck out twice. Later in the game Eddie Rosario replaced him but didn't have any challenges defensively. He went 0-2 with a strikeout. And finally, Jordan Schafer played left field for the whole game, going 0-4. The Red Sox starter was Wade Miley, a southpaw, against which Schafer has usually struggled.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

Well, not sure what to make of any of that. Other than I wish I was in Florida.

Edited March 26, 2015 by mike wants wins

[Hrbowski]

I kind of want May to win the job.

[James]

 

Well, not sure what to make of any of that. Other than I wish I was in Florida.

I just got back from Florida on Monday, and this makes me want to go back.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I was in Tampa this week... Too far away unfortunately

 

That said, I really hope May dominates his next start.

[big dog]

Yeah, I posted yesterday that I hoped all three threw well. Wanted a tough choice. Given this week's results now I want May to throw well and make it an easy choice.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Wait a minute, a start with a 1.8 WHIP, 5.4 ERA, and 5.4 k/9 qualifies as "fairly good" Tommy Milone?

 

If that's true, cut him right now.

[Rosterman]

Well, could see Milone going to the bullpen which means Thompson and Thielbar are out. May could make a decision ahrder for the 5th spot, but he can always get his licks in at Rochester.

 

Reading about Escobar and with Nunez being halfway hot, I almost want to see Danny Santana playing centerfield for the last week of games and going with him out there (again) with Escobar at short and Nunez as backup. Then the real battle is between Robinson and Schafer for backup, with Hicks playing everyday at Rochester and, I guess, Rosario slinking back to Chattonooga.

 

Catching is going to be the tough call. Pinto should probably go to AAA and start everyday. Fryer might be best back there, too. Which leaves Herrmann as the abckup and bench bat.

[nicksaviking]

Milone coming in from the bullpen and giving up contact nearly every at bat with runners on base sounds worse than him pitching in the first inning, and that doesn't sound good either.

[HitInAPinch]

Let's stop all the nonsense talk about Milone and Pelfry.  Trevor May had a bad start with the Twins once he was called up.  I can't find the splits right now, but he got significantly better as the season ended.  It's called development.  Why would the Twins move him back to the minors when he showed he could thrive in the big leagues? 

 

The only thing the Twins should be doing with Milone and Pelfry now is showcasing them for other teams.  BTW:  LEN III has said that Pelfry will not have anymore starts against MLBers.  He's out of the picture.

[COtwin]

"And finally, Jordan Schafer played left field for the whole game, going 0-4. The Red Sox starter was Wade Miley, a southpaw, against which Schafer has usually struggled.  

 

I find this interesting.  Schafer has gotten to hit against primarily right handers this spring and so has Hicks, with Schafer gaining the upper hand.  Schafer OPS - .721 and Hicks OPS - .679.  What interesting is that hitting from the left side has been Hicks major weakness and he is actually posting a .689 OPS against right handers.  I for one am encouraged by this as Hicks was serviceable from the right side last year. Schafer against lefties meanwhile has  miserable .286 OPS.  

 

I am sure I am barely coherent here but I Schafer is barely out performing Hicks and he is getting his ABs in his favorable split, while Hicks is doing most of his work from his weak side.  

 

I understand not bringing Hicks North because he needs to work on things, but Schafer has not won the job.  Schafer's 1223 major league ABs (almost as many as Dozier) say that his .229 BA and .621 OPS may actually be what he is capable of.  Hick's 467 Major league ABs say that his .201 BA and .606 OPS will (probably) increase.  Schafer is who he is and Hicks is already as nearly good as he is at the plate and better in the outfield.  Hicks will not lose us more games than Schafer, bring him North.

[jimmer]

 

Let's stop all the nonsense talk about Milone and Pelfry.  Trevor May had a bad start with the Twins once he was called up.  I can't find the splits right now, but he got significantly better as the season ended.  It's called development.  Why would the Twins move him back to the minors when he showed he could thrive in the big leagues? 

 

The only thing the Twins should be doing with Milone and Pelfry now is showcasing them for other teams.  BTW:  LEN III has said that Pelfry will not have anymore starts against MLBers.  He's out of the picture.

Well, his ERA was over 10 in August and only over 6.00 in Sept so I guess that's a significant improvement but hardly a sign of the light coming on.  Barely averaged 5 IP in the last month, even though he averaged more than a K per IP in that time.

 

Having said that, I want May in the rotation too.

[ashbury]

If Tommy Milone isn't Tommy Milone, we'll need to find out who is. Probably someone named Tommy Milone, or else someone by the same name.

[Ben Noble]

 

If Tommy Milone isn't Tommy Milone, we'll need to find out who is. Probably someone named Tommy Milone, or else someone by the same name.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/WashingtonPost/Content/Production/Blogs/nationals-journal/Images/Mets_Nationals_Baseball_0b0ab.jpg?uuid=tA2rLtszEeCliX1CsIC5kgProbably.

[Danchat]

 

If Tommy Milone isn't Tommy Milone, we'll need to find out who is. Probably someone named Tommy Milone, or else someone by the same name.

We will find out that he is Thomas Milone.

[Ben Noble]

 

We will find out that he is Thomas Milone.

Or Tomaso Milone.

[Craig Arko]

Have we established that T. Milone does have an option remaining?

[stringer bell]

Have we established that T. Milone does have an option remaining?

Yes, he does.

[ashbury]

 

Have we established that T. Milone does have an option remaining?

Up at the top of the TD page is "Organization Chart", and if you click on it you'll find The Player Formerly Known As Tommy Milone had options used in 13 and 14, so he has one remaining.

[stringer bell]

 

"And finally, Jordan Schafer played left field for the whole game, going 0-4. The Red Sox starter was Wade Miley, a southpaw, against which Schafer has usually struggled.  

 

I find this interesting.  Schafer has gotten to hit against primarily right handers this spring and so has Hicks, with Schafer gaining the upper hand.  Schafer OPS - .721 and Hicks OPS - .679.  What interesting is that hitting from the left side has been Hicks major weakness and he is actually posting a .689 OPS against right handers.  I for one am encouraged by this as Hicks was serviceable from the right side last year. Schafer against lefties meanwhile has  miserable .286 OPS.  

 

I am sure I am barely coherent here but I Schafer is barely out performing Hicks and he is getting his ABs in his favorable split, while Hicks is doing most of his work from his weak side.  

 

I understand not bringing Hicks North because he needs to work on things, but Schafer has not won the job.  Schafer's 1223 major league ABs (almost as many as Dozier) say that his .229 BA and .621 OPS may actually be what he is capable of.  Hick's 467 Major league ABs say that his .201 BA and .606 OPS will (probably) increase.  Schafer is who he is and Hicks is already as nearly good as he is at the plate and better in the outfield.  Hicks will not lose us more games than Schafer, bring him North.

But, but , but, it's spring training.  In his two months with the Twins, Schafer was serviceable, Hicks was not.  Hicks has been very good in spring training the last two seasons and that didn't translate to good performance when it counted.  We don't know which RH pitchers Hicks hit against, but if it's a bunch of minor leaguers, it mitigates his "success". 

[ashbury]

 

We don't know which RH pitchers Hicks hit against, but if it's a bunch of minor leaguers, it mitigates his "success". 

Those are the only guys he'll face if he's sent to AAA, like some folks are saying is what's needed to resuscitate his career. I don't see a path that allows him to ever reach the majors again by such logic.

[nater79a]

 

Milone coming in from the bullpen and giving up contact nearly every at bat with runners on base sounds worse than him pitching in the first inning, and that doesn't sound good either.

 

You are exactly right. Don't think you could bring Milone in with guys on base. Would need to start his own innings with the bases empty, which really limits his bullpen versatility.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

We don't know which RH pitchers Hicks hit against, but if it's a bunch of minor leaguers, it mitigates his "success".

 

We never seemed to hold that against Miguel Cabrera even though for the last half decade he gets to hit against minor league pitching 18-19 times a year. Edited March 27, 2015 by nicksaviking

[stringer bell]

Again, Hicks' "success" against RH pitching thus far is a .689 OPS in Spring Training.  Of course, it is a small sample size and of course, he might have raised that number because of the level of competition.  On top of that, even with the two caveats, is that mark "winning" the CF job?  I think not.  Schafer was, by far, the superior offensive player for the Twins in '14.  If anyone is the incumbent this year, it should be him.  Rosario has impressed with good at-bats and good defense (mostly in LF), Robinson has shown he is a good defensive OF and not a sure out at the plate.  None of them have won the job.  Both Hicks and Rosario should be in Rochester.  Let's see if the approach that Schafer seemed to acquire last year can carry over and, as I've said for awhile, Robinson is a good fit for the fourth OF slot.  If Schafer flounders, certainly a good possibility, the better of Hicks/Rosario gets the nod to fill the spot until Buxton is ready.

[tobi0040]

Milone is somewhere between a 5th starter and a 7th starter.

 

May's FIP last suggests last year that even though he was shelled in 20% of those starts, he was a 5th starter.  He took a step forward and nobody can argue his upside is not higher than Milone's. 

 

Let's move north with May and use Milone as he should be, spot starts and as a long reliever.  If we have slotted Pelfrey there than we need to make a decision between the two for that role and the loser is AAA depth.

[mikelink45]

When are the next cuts?  We have three question marks = backup catcher, CF, and pitchers (5th starter and relief) and the old question of cagey vet versus young and struggling with upside.  In 2015, we will not contend or be a 500 team - it is good to experiment with those who will be with us beyond 2015. I would choose May, Rosario, Pinto, Hamburger, Graham.  So long Milone, Pelfrey, Schafer.

[Mike Sixel]

Why should Pinto go to AAA to play every day? He's old enough to be up here now, not some elite prospect that NEEDS to play every day.

[SheboyganBrats]

I agree that Pinto should be the back up catcher at some point.  But, I think the issue here has to do with Pinto's injuries this spring.  Between the quad injury and the concussion, he has missed some time and may need to play every day in AAA for awhile to catch up.  I'm just speculating here, but that's the only rationale I can think of to justify sending him down.  If he is sent down, I don't think it should be for long and maybe I'm wrong about this and he's ready to go.

[Mike Sixel]

If it is about his injuries, I am on  board with that. If it is something else....then I don't get it (the post above mine someplace).

[iTwins]

If I'm Terry Ryan (I'm not, but let's pretend) - I take all three guys who are "trying out" for the 5th starter role north to start the season.

 

Of course, only one of them is actually a starter - Trevor May.

 

Milone moves into the bullpen as a lefty long reliever - think Brian Duensing (I'm not entirely sure what you do with him...tendering him a contract last offseason was a misstep).

 

Pelfrey heads to the 'pen as well. There's been multiple comparisons to Wade Davis - lite when it comes to Pelfrey - let's try it out. The bullpen has issues - that much is clear. Pelfrey becomes the mop up guy that Swarzak had been for the Twins.

 

In the event of a short start or sudden injury, you have two other starting options (who are much better starting options than Swarzak or Duensing have ever been) immediately available - meanwhile the quality of your pen improves as well.