Article: Giving Brian Dozier's Defense Attention

[Parker Hageman]

As Terry Ryan rattled off the bullet points which led the organization toward signing Brian Dozier to a new four-year, $20 million contract that lasts through 2018, the Twins’ general manager cited his second baseman’s glove work.

 

“He doesn’t get enough attention for his defense,” the Twins’ general manager said on Tuesday morning at Dozier's press conference. To put that in pop culture terms, his fielding is the baseball equivalent of Justified.Certainly Dozier’s new contract goes beyond his defense. As Ryan said, Dozier has been able to pop a few over the fence -- where his first-half totals landed him a Home Run Derby -- as well as steal bases (and baserunning in general). Beyond that, he also creates chemistry in the clubhouse and has a mane that just won’t quit. But Dozier’s defense seems appropriately appreciated for what it is: visually appealing but occasionally flawed.

 

So let’s give Dozier’s defense some attention here.

 

Let us start with the understanding that defense is the final frontier when it comes to finding a baseline of what constitutes universally good defense. Some will never be swayed from the trusty eye test while others will use a litany of defensive metrics to construct a profile. The problem with the former is that a human cannot watch, inventory and compare every play over the course of a season or multiple seasons. The issue with the latter is that several different systems with various methodologies are being used to measure a complex series of events.

 

Even Bill James, the OG of metrics, recently threw shade at BIS’ defensive stats as well as other advanced fielding stats. “Fielding Statistics failed because they created no organized universe of data, thus no solid footing on which Direct-Inference Analysis could be conducted,” James wrote in January on his website, BillJamesOnline.net which houses the Plus/Minus system. In laymen’s terms, the common language of OPS+ is that 100 is average and anything above or below it is good or bad. Would saying Dozier was a -4.4 UZR/150 second baseman in 2014 mean something without context? Or that he had 0 Defensive Runs Saved? Or that he was a -16 in the Plus/Minus? These are three stats attempting to measure the same thing but are spoken in three different languages.

 

The advanced metrics are good. They help inventory numerous plays that the mind will never be able to recall without a layer of bias. Where the system starts to be flawed is in attempting to compare one player against other players of that position as not all plays are created equal. Take this Dozier play for example. In it, the runner at second is going on the play and it is Dozier’s responsibility to cover the base. The batter manages to hit behind the runner at which point Dozier quickly changes directions, lunges back at the ball and makes the play to first.

 

http://i.imgur.com/ZneGQ3S.gif

 

How exactly is that type of play measured across the league’s stash of second basemen? On one hand a faster second baseman might have overrun that play because he would be covering the bag. On the other, a different second baseman might not have moved a muscle and made a routine at ‘em ball. How is there a way to appropriately weigh this play?

 

There is no perfect method or one statistic that will be a magic bullet for a player’s defense. In determining where Dozier’s defense stands, it is best to take a little bit of everything into account.

 

Mark Simon at ESPN Stats & Info forwarded some Baseball Info Solution raw data that would help add flavor to Dozier’s defensive abilities. According to Simon, Dozier finished the year with the highest “good fielding plays” by a second baseman with 74. That is one of these types of plays in which Dozier ranges to his left on a slow bounder and manages a quick release with enough on it to Mauer first:

 

http://i.imgur.com/IpUTw1G.gif

 

In that particular play, you see Dozier demonstrating his quick first step, range and rapid-fire release. Within Inside Edge’s statistical warehouse at Fangraphs.com that buckets these plays into categories ranging from “Almost Certain” to “Remote”, that particular play constituted an “Even Chance” or a 50/50 shot another second baseman would have made that same play.

 

In addition to making the most “good fielding plays” for second basemen in 2014, Dozier also committed the most “miscues and errors” in the group as well (24). In these circumstances, Errors, as everyone knows, are made-up stats determined by a dictator in the press box while Miscues are plays that the dictators in the press box miss because they were refilling their soda at that time or the player missed a double-play opportunity, slipped or was temporarily blinded by the sun. Like these two on one play:

 

http://i.imgur.com/BBcxEED.gif

 

Or this one:

 

http://i.imgur.com/YWGtrvg.gif

 

Dozier led all second basemen with nine throwing errors in 2014, most of which appear to be of the rushed delivery variety -- trying to do too much. Dozier’s ownership of the most “good fielding plays” and “miscues” is a byproduct of simply having one of the highest number of opportunities. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s data, the Twins’ pitching staff allowed 440 ground balls in play to the right-center (second base) zone, the third-most in the majors.

 

Meanwhile, Inside Edge’s Kenny Kendrena provided some additional data regarding Dozier’s fielding tendencies. According to their stuff, Dozier was 10th among all second baseman at converting “hard-hit” balls into outs. These are the low-flying missiles that leave the infield in a hurry.

 

http://i.imgur.com/CA5Ohzh.gif

 

Thanks to his pitch-to-impact staff, Dozier was on the receiving end of 31 of these balls, second only to Diamondbacks’ Aaron Hill (40). While he did not make all the “Almost Certain” plays (11 of 12), he did lead in turning most “Unlikely” plays into outs (3 of 4).

 

In addition to handling hard-hit balls well, Kendrena revealed that their data shows that Dozier also was one of the most adept second basemen at making plays backhanded. Not plays to his backhand-side, actually having his glove turned around. Like this:

 

http://i.imgur.com/p3q16Pb.gif

 

And this:

 

http://i.imgur.com/crQFWgB.gif

 

Only Boston’s Dustin Pedroia was scored as better at plays in this manner than Dozier in 2014. This was the reason Dozier’s Plus/Minus while ranging to his right was strong.

 

Putting all of these parts into a whole paints the picture of a solid but not spectacular defender. Based on Inside Edge’s video scouts, Dozier has the ability to make plays that were considered “Unlikely”. BIS’s data suggested the same thing. He has flash and leaves nothing on the table when it comes to stopping a moving baseball. There is no question that the effort -- the kind that make pitchers, coaches and eye-testers happy -- is there. But at the same time he also created several mistakes when trying to do too much.

 

Dozier’s defense probably qualifies as above average. Not elite. Not yet. Is that enough attention?

 

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[Paul Pleiss]

Thank you Parker. I was afraid you were going to tell me that Dozier's defense was elite, and that he is the 2nd coming of Jesus.

 

Good stuff. Especially enjoyed you putting the defensive metrics and all that gobblygook into laymens terms.

[big dog]

You had me at "Justified".  Couldn't believe last night's episode.  If Dozier becomes the Justified of second basemen he'll be worth 4x that new contract.  Nice article.

[Platoon]

One other similarity to "Justified" is that Raylan and Brian both have magnificent hair! And quick hands!

[Platoon]

On a more serious side, what impact will it have on BD's value if his HR's drop to single digits? I don't see his HR production as sustainable, since almost all of them come from the same spot in the zone, up and in. I would think that is a relatively easy pitch to avoid throwing.

[jimmer]

Love me some Dozier.  Nice article!

[jimmer]

 

On a more serious side, what impact will it have on BD's value if his HR's drop to single digits? I don't see his HR production as sustainable, since almost all of them come from the same spot in the zone, up and in. I would think that is a relatively easy pitch to avoid throwing.

We saw some of that in the 2nd half.  Dozier just raised his OBP.

[brvama]

As always, great analysis, Parker. I'm ok with a solid (plus) glove at second, especially with the offense provided. Hopefully he can cut the miscues and then maybe the metrics and eye test and can find commonality.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

“Fielding Statistics failed because they created no organized universe of data, thus no solid footing on which Direct-Inference Analysis could be conducted,” James wrote in January on his website, BillJamesOnline.net

Somewhat ironic that James wrote this behind a paywall, considering that the development and acceptance of defensive metrics has been held back in part due to all meaningful records and breakdowns of defensive events being behind their own paywalls.  It was only possible for Parker to do this level of analysis on Dozier because he's worked to get contacts who provide him with limited amounts of non-public data.

 

Imagine if the general public had free access to all of the input data and records that go into UZR, DRS, etc...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Fantastic article, Parker. One of the best I've read lately.

[Parker Hageman]

Somewhat ironic that James wrote this behind a paywall, considering that the development and acceptance of defensive metrics has been held back in part due to all meaningful records and breakdowns of defensive events being behind their own paywalls.

 

 

No question. I thought the same thing.

 

Interestingly enough, John Dewan, James' partner in the website as well as the president of BIS, responded to James' plea and left it available for all to see (read here). What it seems is that they believe James has a fundamental misunderstanding for how BIS's Defensive Runs Saved system works. Early in the stats' inception, James concocted the idea of the plus/minus reward but the stat has since evolved by weighting the play based on the situation and difficulty. It also has broken it down to "runs" for easier digestion. I believe the system is improved but still is lacking in areas that allows for easy comprehension. 

 

Imagine if the general public had free access to all of the input data and records that go into UZR, DRS, etc...

 

 

Technically, it is all available -- we would just have to watch the video all plays and log them like BIS or Inside Edge does. I'm holding out hope that FieldF/X will give that layer -- be able to answer the question of quickness and first-step and routes that we are only able to measure with our eyes or video scouts' account. It will be a brave new world, indeed. 

 

[jimmer]

James is a legend in advanced metrics and the people who continue on and expand in the field rightly give him respect; however, the idea that because he was at the top of the game in the 80s means he's right every time he complains about someone else's theories seems odd.  

[markos]

 

We saw some of that in the 2nd half.  Dozier just raised his OBP.

But he didn't quite raise it enough to offset the loss in power. And it appears that a large part in the rise in OBP was due to pitchers throwing fewer strikes. It will be interesting to see how this interplay between Dozier and pitchers works out this year. Last year it was basically:

1) Dozier hits a bunch of home runs

2) Pitchers stop throwing strikes

3) Dozier stops hitting home runs, but walks more.

 

It will be interesting to see if pitchers start throwing more strikes now that his power has subsided a little bit, and if subsequently Dozier starts hitting more homers again. It will be trouble if pitchers start throwing more strikes but Dozier isn't hitting homers (or at least getting extra base hits).

[jimmer]

 

But he didn't quite raise it enough to offset the loss in power. And it appears that a large part in the rise in OBP was due to pitchers throwing fewer strikes. It will be interesting to see how this interplay between Dozier and pitchers works out this year. Last year it was basically:

1) Dozier hits a bunch of home runs

2) Pitchers stop throwing strikes

3) Dozier stops hitting home runs, but walks more.

 

It will be interesting to see if pitchers start throwing more strikes now that his power has subsided a little bit, and if subsequently Dozier starts hitting more homers again. It will be trouble if pitchers start throwing more strikes but Dozier isn't hitting homers (or at least getting extra base hits).

Yeah, since he wasn't getting the pitch he likes to pull a HR (because the scouting report was out), he was working counts.  Walks aren't just about the pitcher doing something wrong.  Batters play a part in their walks as well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Technically, it is all available -- we would just have to watch the video all plays and log them like BIS or Inside Edge does. I'm holding out hope that FieldF/X will give that layer -- be able to answer the question of quickness and first-step and routes that we are only able to measure with our eyes or video scouts' account. It will be a brave new world, indeed. 

While the public could create their own imperfect defensive record (and it seems almost feasible, with MLB.tv), they still wouldn't be able to check them against any of the current metrics, other than the final result.  It would be like keeping score and making your own OPS+ -- while the "real" OPS+ was generated with a secret set of inputs.

 

 

I too was excited by FieldF/X (now called Statcast), but I am not encouraged by their implementation so far.  In 2014 it was at limited ballparks and they only included the info on select video highlights -- and from the sound of it, that might be all we see again as it expands to all 30 parks for 2015:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/110648292/commissioner-rob-manfred-mlbcoms-statcast-greatly-expanding-in-2015

 

I haven't seen anything suggesting the public will have access to this data for all plays (like PitchF/X), rendering it mostly a public curiosity.  Maybe MLB will sell the complete data to ESPN, Fangraphs, etc. which should produce some interesting work, but more of the black box variety.

 

[Parker Hageman]

But he didn't quite raise it enough to offset the loss in power. And it appears that a large part in the rise in OBP was due to pitchers throwing fewer strikes.

 

 

That really wasn't the case. He actually saw more in-zone pitches in the second-half of the season (49% 1st half/51% 2nd half). 

 

His July/August BB/K are interesting. In July, he posted a 3/23 BB/K. In August, it was 25/18 BB/K. I'm not certain why the discrepancy either. In July, he often moved around the order batting leadoff, second and third. The person hitting behind him frequently changed as well -- instead of Mauer batting behind him like at the beginning of the year, it was Eduardo Nunez, Kurt Suzuki, Eduardo Escobar and Trevor Plouffe. In August he went back to batting second consistently and had Mauer hitting behind him again. 

 

Maybe it was mindset? His approach may have been that of a run-producer in July while he went back to approaching it as a table-setter in August. 

 

[Parker Hageman]

I haven't seen anything suggesting the public will have access to this data for all plays (like PitchF/X), rendering it mostly a public curiosity.  Maybe MLB will sell the complete data to ESPN, Fangraphs, etc. which should produce some interesting work, but more of the black box variety.

 

 

Correct. From what I've been told, it is not because MLB wants to sit on the data but that the data set is significantly larger than PitchF/X-StatsCast that they don't quite know how to share it to the public. 

 

[Hrbowski]

I think that Dozier is one of the most underrated defensive players out there.

 

[jimmer]

 

Correct. From what I've been told, it is not because MLB wants to sit on the data but that the data set is significantly larger than PitchF/X-StatsCast that they don't quite know how to share it to the public. 

someone should break out the freedom of information act on their arses :-)

[IndyTwinsFan]

Without getting into all the various metrics, I think his overall defense is certainly adequate, especially given the positive aspects he brings as an offensive player.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Correct. From what I've been told, it is not because MLB wants to sit on the data but that the data set is significantly larger than PitchF/X-StatsCast that they don't quite know how to share it to the public. 

I thought of that too.  I don't think MLB would "sit on it", but they may not want to go to the trouble/cost of filtering and presenting the complete data for free to the public.  Unless they are already building a centralized set of filters/interfaces for the teams to use, I suppose.

 

But if they are simply passing the data to teams in a fairly raw form, they might simply sell it in a similar form to outside entities like ESPN to process and use (although not share).

[markos]

 

That really wasn't the case. He actually saw more in-zone pitches in the second-half of the season (49% 1st half/51% 2nd half). 

Where did you get your data from? I used Baseball Savant and searched for pitches in the 1-9 zones. From April through June, it was at 38%, and then from July through September it was at 41%. 

 

Of course, defining what is 'in-zone' or not is definitely open to interpretation.

Edited March 25, 2015 by markos

[Parker Hageman]

Where did you get your data from? I used Baseball Savant and searched for pitches in the 1-9 zones. From April through June, it was at 38%, and then from July through September it was at 41%.

 

 

ESPN/TruMedia (http://www.trumedianetworks.com/mlb-baseball-analytics/).

 

I'm not certain what BaseballSavant is doing with their pitchf/x data for zone stuff but it doesn't seem to add up to what TruMedia (paywall) or to what Fangraphs.com's PitchF/x (51%) data is saying. Then again, the BIS's Fangraphs.com video scouted data says his zone rate was closer to 45% which would match the BaseballSavant data.  

 

I honestly don't have an explanation for the discrepancies. TruMedia is PitchFX-based but has video scouts (Inside Edge, I believe) verifying. Meanwhile BaseballSavant and Fangraph.com's Pitch F/X data should be the same feed. One might be adjusting the zone parameters differently. 

 

Another interesting case of data discrepancies. 

 

QUICK UPDATE: I emailed Daren Williams, the proprietor of BaseballSavant.com and he claims that he gets his data straight from MLB AM's feed and does nothing to manipulate it with. "All the zone data on Baseball Savant is taken directly from MLBAM," Williams said. "Every pitch MLBAM records is given a zone location by their PITCHfx algorithm.  When you view the game day app it's the same as what they show.  That's what I'm using."

 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Fudge Brownie Goldfish Graham's.

[Thegrin]

I watch the Twins a lot for their fielding. Pitcher in trouble - men on base - pitch to contact - ground balls >> Dozier & SS.  Enjoyed Florimon and Dozier the most. Saw great improvement by Plouffe but mainly Dozier stands out.  He may have more errors but he certainly has far more chances. 2nd most  in AL. Tied for 5th most Put-Outs. The most assists and the 4th most DP.

The eye test says that Dozier is one of the best.

[jimmer]

 

I watch the Twins a lot for their fielding. Pitcher in trouble - men on base - pitch to contact - ground balls >> Dozier & SS.  Enjoyed Florimon and Dozier the most. Saw great improvement by Plouffe but mainly Dozier stands out.  He may have more errors but he certainly has far more chances. 2nd most  in AL. Tied for 5th most Put-Outs. The most assists and the 4th most DP.

The eye test says that Dozier is one of the best.

Our pitching staff doesn't strike people out.  Lots of ball in play and lots of guys on base.  It's no surprise his fielding counting stats are high due to opportunities.