Article: Five Beliefs Reinforced In Spring Training

[Nick Nelson]

Anyone who has followed baseball for a substantial amount of time knows better than to put much stock into spring training performances. Down in Ft. Myers, players and coaches constantly warn against reading too much into statistics compiled or tendencies displayed during exhibition play in March, insisting that this time is all about readying oneself physically and experimenting before the games begin to matter.

 

I'd certainly agree that it's foolhardy to allow the proceedings in spring training to determine or change your opinion about a player, or unit, on the team. However, I traveled down to Florida with a number of ideas already in my head about this club, and some of what I saw and heard during a week in camp served to reinforce those ideas.

 

Here are five beliefs I hold about the 2015 Minnesota Twins that were reaffirmed during my time covering spring training.1) This offense is going to be pretty good.

 

In 2014, the Twins ranked seventh in the majors in runs scored, and they did so with a career-worst year from arguably their best hitter, Joe Mauer. Sure, there are a few players that are bound to regress this season, but I've felt that a big step forward in home runs and some positive contributions from incoming prospects would at the very least offset the regression.

 

Miguel Sano was cut from big-league camp the first day I was down there, so I didn't get the chance to see any of his fireworks, but heard plenty of buzz about the way he was crushing the ball. His impending arrival is just one of many wild-cards in play for the lineup in 2015.

 

Meanwhile, several entrenched players are having excellent offensive springs -- most notably Brian Dozier, who signed a four-year contract on Tuesday -- and the club has already flashed far more power than it did a year ago.

 

When discussing his lineup, Terry Ryan talked about how much he likes the balance; a blend of left-handed and right-handed hitters, a mix of youth and veterans, a combination of speed and power.

 

"I would say we've got a chance to be a pretty good offensive club," Ryan said, in his typically understated rhetoric.

 

They do indeed.

 

2) Kyle Gibson is going to have a breakout year.

 

Gibson's 2014 campaign was not spectacular by any means. He averaged fewer than six innings per start, his 4.47 ERA was well below average, and his 5.4 K/9 rate ranked as the fourth-lowest for a qualifying big-league pitcher. But there were plenty of positive signs within the right-hander's first full season, providing a sense that with improvements in a few key areas, he could be on the verge of taking a huge step forward.

 

When I watched him in Ft. Myers, Gibson looked like a stud. His fastball was buzzing in at 94 MPH regularly, his offspeed pitches were inducing awkward swings and weak contact, and he spoke with a great deal of confidence following his outings.

 

As an extreme ground ball pitcher, Gibson already has a key ingredient in the recipe for consistently shutting down opposing lineups. With a bit more command and a few more missed bats, he could profile as a No. 3 or even No. 2 caliber starter, which would completely change the complexion of this rotation.

 

3) The bullpen could be an issue.

 

The bullpen has generally been a strong point for the Twins, even in their leaner times. Last year, however, Minnesota's relief corps ranked bottom 10 in the majors in most key categories (ERA, BAA, WHIP, etc.), and faltered late in the season. Glen Perkins struggled down the stretch before being shut down. Casey Fien coughed up multiple runs in three of his 10 September appearances. Brian Duensing put up a 6.28 ERA over the final two months.

 

The only offseason move made to address this unit was replacing Anthony Swarzak with Tim Stauffer, and Stauffer's rocky month of March has inspired little confidence in that swap. Meanwhile, Perkins got a late start due to an injury and several relievers have been hit hard.

 

The three arms that are effectively vying for that final spot in the bullpen -- J.R. Graham, Blaine Boyer and Mark Hamburger -- all offer some level of intrigue, but none are really established, reliable options.

 

The Twins have some potentially dominant relievers coming up through the system, but in the meantime, protecting leads could be a struggle.

 

4) Paul Molitor will be a different type of manager.

 

When the Twins hired from within when naming Ron Gardenhire's successor, many fans expressed skepticism over whether the managerial switch would really lead to significant change.

 

After spending more time around Molitor, and hearing him talk about the importance of OBP at the top of the order, the evolving role of the No. 2 hitter ("it's turned into a little bit more of an offensive position in the lineup"), and his openness to using the closer outside of save situations or hitters in platoons, I feel more confident than ever that he will represent a meaningful change in direction.

 

Obviously we'll need to see it play out on the field, but based on the things Molitor's been saying, I believe fans who gravitate toward modern baseball philosophy and strategy will be pleased with the new hire.

 

5) Alex Meyer has a ways to go.

 

In our annual prospect rankings, Meyer was bumped down to No. 5 this year after appearing at No. 3 a year ago. In part, that's because the two pitchers that passed him, Jose Berrios and Kohl Stewart, did plenty to help their cases in 2014. But it's also because Meyer's flaws -- or at least his lack of polish -- have become more evident.

 

I watched him throw live in Port Charlotte, and afterwards I wrote about the outing, which featured inconsistent mechanics, erratic pitches and a visible lack of confidence.

 

There's no question that Meyer has the stuff to blow away hitters at any level, but from watching him pitch, it's quite clear that -- regardless of his age -- he shouldn't be pitching in the majors right now.

 

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[Otwins]

I was down at Fort Myers for a week and was not impressed by Meyer either. I also saw good swings at his fastball so even though he has the velocity I question how much movement he is getting. I did get to see Sano. The home run he hit off Gerrit Cole was very impressive. Can't wait for to arrive.

[Paul Pleiss]

1. "pretty good" but not great. There are some big regression candidates, and a 32 year old Mauer coming off a bad season to contend with. There aren't enough slots in the lineup for all the big boppers. But yes, I am excited about the run scoring potential of this team.

2. I'm not sure that Gibson will have a "breakout" season. Hopefully he's more consistent than last season. If he can turn 2 or 3 of those clunkers from last season into decent outings, he should be better than league average, which may be his ceiling.

3. The bullpen, the rotation, the guys who are paid to throw the ball are the big liability this season, and not just becasue their arms may fall off. A guy like Gibson who relies heavily on his GB rate, will need the defense behind him to be solid. The OF defense the Twins are planning to run out there day in and day out will cost this team runs, taxing an already questionable set of pitchers. That being said, there are a lot of big arms to watch as the team heads north, and some more down in the high minors to keep an eye on. When guys like Pelfrey and Stauffer get forced off the roster this club will likely be in a much better position to hold onto leads that the offense supplies.

4. Paul is not Gardy. So yes, he will be different. Hopefully more so than being different, he is successful. And uses his relievers in a non-traditional fashion.

5. I disagree. Alex Meyer is about as ready as he is going to get. He needs to face MLB batters. Let him be wild at the MLB level. Sam Deduno did it. Let Alex Meyer do it too.

 

[stringer bell]

Just got back from Fort Myers myself. I would respond to the topics Nick listed with answers between "agree" and "strongly agree". The best fix for the current bullpen is longer starts from the starting rotation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

1) This offense is going to be pretty good.

 

In 2014, the Twins ranked seventh in the majors in runs scored,

Can we please stop comparing the Twins offense to the league where there is no DH and the pitchers bat regularly? The Twins ranked 5th in the AL, I believe, which is still good (top half of the league) and a much better representation of their performance relative to their peers than the "top ~20%" implied by the MLB rank.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Definitely agreed on the offense and bullpen, though. Hope you are right about Gibson! Grudgingly admit you may be right about Meyer too.

[beckmt]

Some of the offence may be relative.  Twins are going to see 78 games against teams with above average starting pitching.  That will somewhat dampen the offense.  Most of the division clubs (except Detroit) has good to great bullpens.  Good pitching will still beat good hitting, so will be interesting to see how the Twins hit, plus regression from Santana and Vargas may make the offense not as good as people expect.

[bird]

1. If both Vargas and Santana struggle, that might be frustrating since they occupy such key slots in the order. We have to expect a tough adjustment for both of them, I think, as they face tough pitchers who now have a good book on them. But if one or both demonstrate the smarts and talent to make those adjustments, and Arcia matures with his approach, this could be fun.

 

2. Gibson might be the #2-3 starter he was projected to become, making him a pretty decent draft choice after all.

 

3. I'm less concerned with the bullpen, for a couple reasons: 1. the guys they sent down, Oliveros, Achter, Tonkin, Pressly, Thompson, Pryor, and Darnell, if inserted as replacements en masse, wouldn't be that embarrassing. A couple of the current guys will falter, and a couple of those guys will emerge as good replacements. In the meantime, Burdi, Jones, Chargois, and others are knocking on the door.

 

4. Yes, Paulie will be a better game-day manager, but I'm going to wait to see signs of a healthy clubhouse environment. This, to me, is perhaps the hardest and most important part of a manager's job. I know people will disagree with me, but I believe Gardy managed his clubhouses about as well as any manager in baseball. Even the bad apples, guys like Delmon, were managed well by Gardy. Paulie seems to be liked and respected too, so I'm optimistic.

 

5. Meyer's handling has been a lightning rod for criticism. His spring performance should put most of that to bed. But alas, it probably won't. Hopefully, he'll make the necessary adjustments quickly, because we'll hopefully find a slot for him by the trade deadline. Right now, though, he'd get carved up.

[Dantes929]

 

Some of the offence may be relative.  Twins are going to see 78 games against teams with above average starting pitching.  That will somewhat dampen the offense.  Most of the division clubs (except Detroit) has good to great bullpens.  Good pitching will still beat good hitting, so will be interesting to see how the Twins hit, plus regression from Santana and Vargas may make the offense not as good as people expect.

Regression by Santana is almost certain but don't see any reason Vargas can't put up those stats again.    He was very hot and then very cold last year ending with stats below his career minor league numbers.   Mauer and Arcia are reasonable progression candidate.  How many games did the Twins play against above average pitching last year?    I don't think opponent's pitching got magically better.  Detroit and KC both lost top pitchers so if anything it probably got a little worse but mostly I am guessing the pitching they will have to face is not significantly better or worse than last year.

[Mike Sixel]

The discussion of Meyer will move from "he should be up" to "nice trade"......

 

Not a fan of the bullpen construction, I don't get the obsession with veteraniness over ability and future.

 

I have no real idea what to expect from the offense. There are guys that could easily move either way.....

 

I agree with my friend the watcher of birds......Molitor will clearly be different tactically, but the managing of the culture is probably as, if not more, important.

[jimmer]

Mauer should regress. I'd guess a minimum of 125 wRC+ and wouldn't be surprised if it was in the 130s or even the 140s.

Edited March 25, 2015 by jimmer

[gunnarthor]

Nice article.  Gibson has been listed as a break out guy by Schonfield at ESPN (along with Arcia) and an article at hard ball times.  Don't have the links for either but both noted his ground balls and his strange splits - he had some clearly dominating games to go with some absolute stinkers.

[jimmer]

It was in Schoenfield's Sweet Spot, but it was Christina Kahrl who wrote the article:

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/54202/picks-to-click-breakout-pitchers

 

#9 This may not be as easy a case to make, but he is a prime example of what has become an organizational type for the Twins, a huge strike-thrower who pounds away low and outside and keeps his infield busy, sort of a bigger version of Scott Erickson with even better command. As ESPN Stats & Info’s Mark Simon tweeted earlier this month, Gibson kept some pretty extraordinary company last year, tying for second in the majors in starts with seven or more innings pitched and no runs allowed with six. If the Twins’ infield defense jells this year, he’ll stay on that list.

Edited March 25, 2015 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

3. I'm less concerned with the bullpen, for a couple reasons: 1. the guys they sent down, Oliveros, Achter, Tonkin, Pressly, Thompson, Pryor, and Darnell, if inserted as replacements en masse, wouldn't be that embarrassing. A couple of the current guys will falter, and a couple of those guys will emerge as good replacements. In the meantime, Burdi, Jones, Chargois, and others are knocking on the door.

The problem isn't lack of bullpen replacements -- the problem is when do they do the replacing?  To date, they haven't shown much inclination to replace modestly performing low-upside guys in MLB.  It might take a complete collapse or expired contract to replace anybody.

Edited March 25, 2015 by spycake

[Monkeypaws]

I am hoping you thoughts on Gibson will prove true.

[Willihammer]

Gibson's velo is impressive this spring. Will be interesting to watch if he can keep up 94-95 all season.

[Nick Nelson]

Gibson's line today against the Rays: 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 7 K, 2 BB. 10 outs on the ground vs. 2 through the air. That's dominance. 

 

(I know that equates to 19 outs, not 18, but I'm just going by the MLB.com box)

[zchrz]

2. I am high on Gibson, he has the stuff to be really good.  RHers get eaten alive by the sinker when he has it going, its damn near unfair.  He needs to get LHers out and end 2 strike counts quicker, if he does that with a little more swing and miss stuff with the uptick in velocity or better command of his off speed stuff watch out. 

 

5. I'm not ready to panic about Meyer, but if he can't crack the rotation this year he is probably in the bullpen.  The stuff is there but he has to be consistent with it, I think the Deduno comp as a good thing is kinda funny considering he is in the bullpen in Houston now where the wild guys end up.

[tobi0040]

Gibson could be really good.

 

Brandon Webb was an ace when healthy. His high k per 9 was 7.3 and he had a gb percentage ranging between 62 and 67 percent. The closer Gibson gets to those two numbers the better. I think he had a shot at mid 6's on k's and a 60 percent ground ball rate.