Article: Extension Candidate: Oswaldo Arcia

[Jeremy Nygaard]

What?! You're joking. Right?

 

We've hashed, rehashed and triple-hashed a potential extension for Brian Dozier. We've even thrown Trevor Plouffe's name around in those talks. We've loved (or mostly-loved) the Phil Hughes (unnecessary) extension.

 

But we haven't talked at all about a player who makes sense - eventually - to approach about a long-term deal. It's not a "How Did We Miss Him?" discussion at all. Mostly because this player hasn't been very good.Oswaldo Arcia debuted early in the 2013 season out of pure necessity. He has spent parts of the last two seasons in the minor leagues. He strikes out more (244 big-league K's) than (insert your least favorite Twins blogger here) did in college. He teases with 34 MLB home runs, but more than mitigates his power by playing subpar defense in right field (-3.4 defensive bWAR in '13 and '14) and now he's moving to the more spacious left field.

 

Nothing hear screams "SIGN THIS GUY TO A LONG-TERM DEAL" and it shouldn't. As it is - right now - it shouldn't even be on the Twins radar.

 

But there's a pretty simple it showed up on mine: 1.132

 

Oswaldo Arcia's service time. There isn't a set number that qualifies you to be a Super-2, instead it has to do with the top percentage of players who fall short of three years of service time. Over the last six years, that number has fallen between 2.122 and 2.146. Right where Arcia projects to be next year.

 

So what does that mean? The best example I could find that was presentable and makes sense is a comparison between Dexter Fowler and Austin Jackson. Both players are set to enter free agency after this season, but their paths through the arbitration process has left them in different spots financially.

 

First, the players aren't perfect comps but are as apples to apples as I could find. Jackson, though, is much better according to bWAR. Over his career, he's worth 20.2 bWAR compared to Fowler's 11.3. A bigger different, however, is that Fowler was a Super-2 and Jackson was not. Because of that, over the course of their careers, Fowler has made over $24.5m and Jackson has made only $18.5m. Think what Fowler would have made if he was as good as Jackson. I don't think it's unfair to say that Fowler could have earned very near $30m, or 62% more than a superior player who only comes up short, statistically, in terms of service time. (Like I said earlier, it's not the best comparison, but the best I could find.)

 

So back to Arcia: For this to make any sense, he'll need to improve. He'll need to show that he is part of the core of this team moving forward. Basically, he'll need to make a jump - both offensively and defensively - that Trevor Plouffe has made over the last couple of season. Plouffe, by the way, earned $2.35m as a Super-2 in 2014, the same exact figure that Dexter Fowler made as a Super-2.

 

If Arcia makes that jump this year and we're heading into the late summer, the Twins should absolutely explore the idea of an extension. Arcia should absolutely listen. If Arcia falls short of Super-2 status, he'll make somewhere around $575k next year. If he hits the yet-to-be-decided cutoff, he makes between four and five times that.

 

Teams look for cost-certainly. Players look for stability. And at the end of the day, teams want control through a free agent year (or two). There are many times teams and players get creative and escalate the figures of a contract if guys qualify for Super-2 status. The Twins and Arcia, if he turns the corner, would benefit from hammering out a deal this summer.

 

The worst thing that could happen for the Twins is the next wave arrives, the team gets competitive and their lack of being proactive forces them to lose part of their core, like Arcia. Of course, if he falls on his face this year, he might be in danger of being non-tendered as a Super-2 and this article is moot.

 

Let's check back in July and see what Ozzie is in left field.

 

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[Linus]

I just want to go on record right now - if I am approached for an extension I will sign immediately.  And I will sign a team friendly deal because that's the type of player I am.

[HitInAPinch]

Still only 23 [for a couple months] and only 1 year with Brunansky, I'm expecting his hitting to be significantly better this year.  I haven't seen him enough times to make a judgement on his defense.  Only video clips.

 

Start typing up the contract extension now, Jeremy! 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Still only 23 [for a couple months] and only 1 year with Brunansky, I'm expecting his hitting to be significantly better this year. I haven't seen him enough times to make a judgement on his defense. Only video clips.

 

Start typing up the contract extension now, Jeremy!

Arcia has had two years with Brunansky as hitting coach.

[ashbury]

Check Back In July, indeed. No sooner.

[curt1965]

I have long been an Arcia supporter, and I think Jeremy is spot on with his suggestion. As has been mentioned, he is only 23, and could very well be a "diamond in the rough." What would it cost the Twins?

Yelich got 23 million for 7 years- if Arcia hits 30 Hr's, and plays adequate "D-" that's going to look like a bargain!

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I think this is a next offseason thing if all goes well, but I suspect it will be a no brainer.

[mikelink45]

Do it - let's avoid the we can't afford our players situation down the line.  If Buxton and Sano come in like we think the payroll is going to be blown out of the bank.

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Here's what I had:

 

2016: 750K

2017: 3.25m

2018: 5.5m

2019: 7.75m

2020: 9m (first FA year)

2021: 11m (club option with $1.75m b/o)

 

5 years/$28m guarantee.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins have team control through age 28.

 

I don't know what the numbers need to be, but I would be talking with his agent about an extension that gives the Twins control over first his two seasons in free agency. I don't value cost control nearly as much as team control through a players peak seasons. Any deal that only buys arb seasons would not be one I think the Twins should consider.

[tobi0040]

He needs to hit the seams off the ball and play average defense. Or hit the seams off the ball (way more than Arcia) and the twins trade Arcia and commit to him at DH

 

It should be noted that he would need to dramatically improve against lefties to qualify as hitting the seams off the ball. The last thing you want to do is extend a platoon player for five years for no reason.

[tobi0040]

Okay. I meant he needs to outperform Vargas and the twins trade Vargas.

[nater79a]

Arcia has definitely been streaky so far in his career. He'll hit the cover off the ball for two weeks and then go three weeks where he really struggles. Question is, if he puts up season long numbers that suggest an extension but he is still streaky, should the Twins go forward with it? Seems like consistency should should count for something. 

 

Plus, he needs to stay off the DL with nagging injuries. In fact, if his back flares up again that should be a red flag to hold off on an extension.

 

Hopefully, Oswaldo remains healthy and consistent and we can pick up extension talks later in the year.

[Paul Pleiss]

As much as I am dead set against an extension for Dozier, I think the case for Ozzie is a considerably different. I think giving him guaranteed life changing money on a team friendly deal is a good deal for both sides. Arcia, if he can stay healthy, is a player who will put up big counting stats, and that signals big money in arbitration. He signed for 80K in 2007 at age 16, so giving him that financial security and locking him up through arb plus 2 FA years means he still hits free agency at 30 and has a chance to cash in again.

 

Do it. But be smart.

[tobi0040]

I am a little dumbfounded. He is not a free agent for five more seasons and has legitimate question marks about his game and role here. 

 

He has been pretty bad defensively and may not be sustainable there.  And his career line against lefties is .224/.266/.336/.597.

 

Before we pay him five years in advance, lets allow him to show that he has a position and is not platoon player.

[hybridbear]

Is there a good article anywhere on TD that explains how the MLB service clock works? I've never understood it. I read about players having "options" and being a "super-2" player but I have no idea what any of that means. Thanks...

[tobi0040]

 

Is there a good article anywhere on TD that explains how the MLB service clock works? I've never understood it. I read about players having "options" and being a "super-2" player but I have no idea what any of that means. Thanks...

 

Here is a 4th grade explanation.  By 4th grade I mean I know just enough to think I have it down.  I will be corrected, likely on all points within ten minutes.

 

Here goes.  Your service time starts when you are called up and is a big countdown, first to arbitration (when an arbiter determines your pay and then when you become a free agent). The general rule of thumb is players are under rookie deals their first three years and usually make about $500K per year.  Then they are in arbitration for three years.  Numbers in arbitration range from 1-2.5M in year one, on up to potentially $10M depending on prodution.  Ryan Howard was putting up MVP numbers for example and made a boatload. 

 

Super two means players can skip their third year of rookie pay and jump to arbitration if they are in the 22nd percentile or better in terms of service time (for their peers).

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/super-two/

 

 

I have less knowledge of the options.  On a very basic level, a player can only be called up to the majors and then sent back down so many times before he has to pass through waivers and can be claimed by other teams.  Some magical calculation exists regarding service time, number of times being sent down, whether they ar on the 40 or 25 man roster, and age.

Edited March 24, 2015 by tobi0040

[jimmer]

Yeah, I'd really wait on Arcia.  Can't play defense, streaky offense. Maybe he's our future DH?  Maybe.

[Rosterman]

He may be the next David Ortiz.

 

But the Twins will play it safe.

 

WHo knows, he could be on the bus to Rochester for most/part of this season. If that happens, the Twins get that extra time.

 

If he does produce, he came become trade bait.

 

He could be the next David Ortiz.

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

He may be the next David Ortiz.

 

But the Twins will play it safe.

 

WHo knows, he could be on the bus to Rochester for most/part of this season. If that happens, the Twins get that extra time.

 

If he does produce, he came become trade bait.

 

He could be the next David Ortiz.

 

But what if Vargas is the next Ortiz and Arcia still looks lost in the outfield?  And again, if Arcia does not take a significant step forward against lefties he will find himself on the bench in key games.  A lot of things need to be sorted out over the next few years.

[jimmer]

 

He may be the next David Ortiz.

 

But the Twins will play it safe.

 

WHo knows, he could be on the bus to Rochester for most/part of this season. If that happens, the Twins get that extra time.

 

If he does produce, he came become trade bait.

 

He could be the next David Ortiz.

You think Arcia could be going to Rochester or are you talking Vargas?

[Otto von Ballpark]

It may already be too late to extract much excess value from an Arcia extension.  As Jeremy says, he is likely less than a year away from his first arbitration award as a Super Two.  Denard Span was two years away from his arb award when he signed his deal with the Twins.

 

If the Twins could option Arcia this season for 21 days, they could delay his first arbitration award a year and eliminate his "Super Two" status.  But of course, if there is a plausible performance based reason for optioning Arcia this year, he's probably not a good extension candidate anyway...

[tobi0040]

It may already be too late to extract much excess value from an Arcia extension.  As Jeremy says, he is likely less than a year away from his first arbitration award as a Super Two.  Denard Span was two years away from his arb award when he signed his deal with the Twins.

 

If the Twins could option Arcia this season for 21 days, they could delay his first arbitration award a year and eliminate his "Super Two" status.  But of course, if there is a plausible performance based reason for optioning Arcia this year, he's probably not a good extension candidate anyway...

 

I think big picture, we could go down the line and lock up every guy we think will be a part of the 2017 Twins.  But we first need clarity on if the combination of all these guys is a playoff team or not. Because if you have all positions locked up, you are often going to be stuck with that roster.  we will never have full clarity, but projecting out five years based on a very small sample is risky. Especially when guys have huge queston marks.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think big picture, we could go down the line and lock up every guy we think will be a part of the 2017 Twins.  But we first need clarity on if the combination of all these guys is a playoff team or not. Because if you have all positions locked up, you are often going to be stuck with that roster.  we will never have full clarity, but projecting out five years based on a very small sample is risky. Especially when guys have huge queston marks.

Yeah, my thoughts as well. Arcia has some pretty huge question marks so locking him up could be saving a ton of money or it could be throwing money on the fire. Brian Dozier had few question marks by comparison so the deal made more sense.

 

If Arcia was a better defender, I'd be all over an extension... But if he was a better defender, he'd be a better player with fewer question marks so we're back at square one.

[Willihammer]

In the 2nd half of 2014 Arcia batted .239/.290/.517. If he keeps that up through the first half of 2015, I think that should give the Twins reasonable confidence about Arcia's bat while leaving enough risk to provide the leverage needed to lock him into a low AAV plus team option(s) on Arcia's age 29 (and 30) seasons. I'd love to see the Twins lock him up if that's how the first half plays out.

 

On a related note, Fangraphs looked at the notion of scarce righthanded power.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/debunking-the-myth-of-right-handed-power-scarcity/

 

TL;DR its a myth. In fact, LH power is scarcer. I think that's true for the Twins as well. Who is there besides Vargas that might offer anywhere near as much LH pop as Arcia promises?

Edited March 24, 2015 by Willihammer

[jimmer]

 

In the 2nd half of 2014 Arcia batted .239/.290/.517. If he keeps that up through the first half of 2015, I think that should give the Twins reasonable confidence about Arcia's bat while leaving enough risk to provide the leverage needed to lock him into a low AAV plus team option(s) on Arcia's age 29 (and 30) seasons.

 

On a related note, Fangraphs looked at the notion of scarce righthanded power.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/debunking-the-myth-of-right-handed-power-scarcity/

 

TL;DR its a myth. In fact, LH power is scarcer. I think that's true for the Twins as well. Who is there besides Vargas that might offer anywhere near as much LH pop as Arcia promises?

Are we thinking that slash-line is good, though?  OBP of .290.

[tobi0040]

 

In the 2nd half of 2014 Arcia batted .239/.290/.517. If he keeps that up through the first half of 2015, I think that should give the Twins reasonable confidence about Arcia's bat while leaving enough risk to provide the leverage needed to lock him into a low AAV plus team option(s) on Arcia's age 29 (and 30) seasons. I'd love to see the Twins lock him up if that's how the first half plays out.

 

On a related note, Fangraphs looked at the notion of scarce righthanded power.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/debunking-the-myth-of-right-handed-power-scarcity/

 

TL;DR its a myth. In fact, LH power is scarcer. I think that's true for the Twins as well. Who is there besides Vargas that might offer anywhere near as much LH pop as Arcia promises?

 

Things that need clarity:

 

Can Arcia play adequete defense?

 

Can Arcia improve upon his sub .600 OPS against lefties?

 

Can Arcia's offense outweigh someone like Rosario/Hicks/maybe Sano/Plouffe, in LF, given they will likely all play better defense?

 

The Twins need to hit the pause button.  So many things need to work themselves out.

 

 

 

Edited March 24, 2015 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In the 2nd half of 2014 Arcia batted .239/.290/.517. If he keeps that up through the first half of 2015, I think that should give the Twins reasonable confidence about Arcia's bat while leaving enough risk to provide the leverage needed to lock him into a low AAV plus team option(s) on Arcia's age 29 (and 30) seasons. I'd love to see the Twins lock him up if that's how the first half plays out.

I think they would only have that leverage at that point if it was clear that Arcia would miss Super Two status.  Otherwise, Arcia would only be 3 months worth of games from a guaranteed ~$2.5+ mil payday.  It doesn't seem like players sign up for multiple option years at that point in their careers.

 

Although Arcia's career thus far is a somewhat refreshing reminder that the Twins generally don't play service time games.  They optioned him after his rehab stint in May 2014, but only for 10 days or so, not enough to keep him from getting a full year's service time credit for 2014.  If they had kept him down another 10 days, or ended his "rehab" and optioned him 10 days earlier, he probably would not project to make Super Two status.

[Mike Sixel]

If you always wait to KNOW with some CERTAINTY......you aren't really likely to save any money. It's too late by then.

 

It would appear that most posters here are conservative, and would rather go year to year more, until there is more certainty. I disagree. There is value in certainty of what he'll cost. And, as salaries rise, those numbers above will look conservative.

 

If you believe in him, you sign him to a 7 year deal.......or, you go year to year, and spend a TON of money in future years, and maybe lose him.

[Willihammer]

 

I think they would only have that leverage at that point if it was clear that Arcia would miss Super Two status.  Otherwise, Arcia would only be 3 months worth of games from a guaranteed ~$2.5+ mil payday.  It doesn't seem like players sign up for multiple option years at that point in their careers.

 

Although Arcia's career thus far is a somewhat refreshing reminder that the Twins generally don't play service time games.  They optioned him after his rehab stint in May 2014, but only for 10 days or so, not enough to keep him from getting a full year's service time credit for 2014.  If they had kept him down another 10 days, or ended his "rehab" and optioned him 10 days earlier, he probably would not project to make Super Two status.

Well, they could include a 2.5m salary in year one, or a signing bonus, or some other incentive. Super 2 status might change the shape of an extension but I doubt that makes or breaks a deal or alters the size/scope of it more than a little.

 

As with any extension, it depends on the player and how he values financial security versus the upside of going year to year. If Arcia's agent is like Dozier's, he'll want to secure a deal while leaving open the possiblility of a big pay day entering free agency around age 30-31. Best of both worlds really.