Article: Sorting Out The Bullpen

[Nick Nelson]

With Michael Tonkin and Ryan Pressly both being optioned in the past two days, the Minnesota Twins' bullpen picture is starting to come into focus, but there are still a lot of relievers in big-league camp.

 

Part of that is the team needs plenty of arms to get them through these exhibition contests, but another part is that they face some tricky decisions. Let's take a shot at handicapping this race as it stands with about two weeks left to go.First, a quick look at the guys who are essentially locks:

 

Glen Perkins, LHP

 

Perkins was slowed early in camp by an oblique strain, but he pitched in a minor-league game on Thursday with no issues, and is expected to make his Grapefruit League debut this weekend. Both he and Terry Ryan have expressed full confidence he'll be ready to roll at the start of the season, barring any setbacks.

 

Casey Fien, RHP

 

Fien is inked in as the setup man presently, and if Perkins were to experience a setback, he'd be first in line to fill the closer role. Fien saw a few key numbers drop last season, causing his xFIP to rise to 3.87 from 2.71 in 2013, but he also added almost two full miles per hour to his average fastball velocity. He's been throwing hard and getting very good results in spring training.

 

Brian Duensing, LHP

 

Entering his seventh season with the Twins, Duensing is in line to be the bullpen's foremost lefty specialist, and it's a role for which he is well suited. In his career, he has held same-sided batters to a .233/.277/.322 slash line, and last year those numbers checked in at .242/.282/.305. Hopefully Paul Molitor can limit his exposure against righties.

 

Tim Stauffer, RHP

 

It's been a rocky spring so far for the veteran, but with a guaranteed $2.2 million contract, he's in as long as he's healthy. The Twins have ruled him out of the rotation race, so he'll be in the bullpen. He's likely to be a guy who will be called upon frequently to pitch multiple innings, with perhaps the occasional spot start as needed -- a la Anthony Swarzak. I don't think he really has the stuff to be an impact late-inning arm.

 

That leaves three spots in a seven-man pen. Two of them are pretty close to being penciled in, though not quite as certain as the above four.

 

Caleb Thielbar, LHP

 

Thielbar is almost a lock, because I think Molitor will want to have multiple lefties at his disposal; Perkins doesn't really count as he's obviously not a match-up guy. Still, Thielbar hasn't had the greatest spring, allowing 10 hits in five innings, and the coaching staff might have confidence in some of the right-handers in the mix to get lefty bats out. Still, he seems very likely.

 

Tommy Milone, LHP/Mike Pelfrey, RHP

 

Whoever loses out in the fifth starter competition probably ends up in the bullpen as a long reliever, capable of being stretched out to join the rotation when a need arises. Ryan has stated strongly that he prefers Pelfrey as a starter, citing the veteran's preparation routine as one reason, so Milone is the leading candidate. Asked about the possibility of a relief role earlier this week, Milone sounded open to the idea: "Wherever they want me to go, I'm going to trust what they want to do and go with it." (If you're wondering whether the southpaw Milone's presence in the bullpen could make Thielbar more expendable, that's possible, but Milone has actually allowed a higher OPS against lefties than righties in his career.)

 

Short of a surprise with one of the names above, that leaves one opening -- likely a middle relief role. Let's take a look at the remaining contenders, ranked in order of how likely they are to win that final spot from my view…

 

J.R. Graham, RHP

 

This year's Rule 5 pick has impressed this spring, flashing surprisingly huge velocity from his smallish frame. The Twins need to keep him on the 25-man roster in order to retain him -- unless they work out a trade with Atlanta -- so there's plenty of incentive to have him rounding out the bullpen if he's healthy and they believe in his ability.

 

Blaine Boyer, RHP

 

The veteran was signed to a minor-league deal after coming out of an injury-prompted retirement and playing for San Diego last year. He has a live fastball that draws rave reviews and has looked good in Grapefruit play for the most part. "He's made a nice impression over here, there's no denying that," Paul Molitor said following another strong outing on Friday. "He's making a run for it."

 

Mark Hamburger, RHP

 

He's a great story, and while he entered camp as somewhat of a long shot, I keep hearing positive things about him from different people. He was pitching extremely well in his first three spring appearances, striking out six with only one hit allowed in five innings prior to coughing up four earned runs against Baltimore this week. Molitor termed that outing a "little hiccup."

 

A.J. Achter, RHP

 

The tall, lanky 26-year-old has somewhat quietly been a tremendous performer in the Twins' minor-league system. Last year he allowed only 44 hits in 72 innings at Rochester, and had a decent September debut for the Twins. Achter has looked good this spring, and he eventually could be quite useful as a guy who can be counted on to get more than three outs, but he has multiple options and I believe he heads back to Rochester.

 

Stephen Pryor, RHP

 

Acquired from the Mariners last July in the Kendrys Morales trade, Pryor has big stuff but has always had a hard time throwing strikes. That hasn't been as much an issue this spring but it's tough see the Twins trusting him over some of the names listed above. He could be a factor at some point this season.

 

Trevor May, RHP

 

The pitching prospect appears to be behind Milone and Pelfrey in the fifth starter race, and could theoretically latch on in the bullpen, but the Twins have consistently downplayed that idea. They want to keep him acclimated to starting.

 

Aaron Thompson, LHP

 

Thompson has had a couple decent seasons at Rochester, and he can get left-handed batters out, but the only way I can see him making the roster is if Duensing or Thielbar gets hurt.

 

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[John Bonnes]

If the Twins don't want to put Stauffer in the bullpen, I wonder what their options are. Do they need to expose him to waivers?

[Seth Stohs]

Stauffer's options are certainly up. They could try to trade him. 

[nater79a]

I think Thompson should get a shot over Thielbar. But I doubt that happens. He'll probably be the first LOOGY they call up if they need one at some point this season.

[mikelink45]

They signed Stauffer hoping he had the right stuff if he doesn't; let's move on.  I am tired of hearing about contract instead of ability.  

[Kwak]

The LOOGY is the position to eliminate.  LHP have to be able to pitch a full inning including RH batters.  Granted that inning might be initially against a LHB, but not just one batter.  Duensing has pitched against RHBs.  If the Twins can't find LHPs they need to find RHP who consistently get the outs.  Seek quality pitchers not "one-trick-ponies".

[Seth Stohs]

Graham, Achter, Hamburger and Thompson for one spot. 

 

If people think Thielbar isn't a given, then that helps Thompson's case, or they could go with just one lefty.

 

Graham helped his case today with two scoreless innings. 

 

Thompson threw two scoreless innings.

 

Hamburger gave up one run over two innings.

 

Achter got two outs, but then gave up a three-run homer (2 hits, 1 BB) that ended the game in Port Charlotte this afternoon. 

 

Of course, making too much of any one outing is silly, but at the end of spring, Molitor and Ryan will need to have something.

[Mike Sixel]

Please go with some young guys, and give us some hope. Stauffer offers nothing at all.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Graham helped his case today with two scoreless innings. 

 

I saw Graham pitch today and have a full log of each of his pitches here.  After today, I will really be surprised if he does not make the team.  That good and really great composure on the mount even after a mishandled ball by Santana on a Rohlfilng throw on a CS attempt got a runner to the third with one out.  Color me impressed.

Edited March 21, 2015 by Thrylos

[USAFChief]

Stauffer's options are certainly up. They could try to trade him.

 

Is there still a rule preventing teams from trading FA signees until sometime in June? I know there used to be, not sure if there still is.

[Thrylos]

 

Is there still a rule preventing teams from trading FA signees until sometime in June? I know there used to be, not sure if there still is.

 

Not sure if there still is one with the new CBA, but even with the old, a team can DFA someone and trade him to the team that claimed him.

[USAFChief]

Not sure if there still is one with the new CBA, but even with the old, a team can DFA someone and trade him to the team that claimed him.

That doesn't sound correct to me. For example, a player with 10 and 5 rights cannot be traded, including through a DFA, so I would assume if there's still a rule preventing trading a newly signed FA, that would also prevent a trade through a DFA.

 

I would assume a player can waive that rule if he chooses, though.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Is there still a rule preventing teams from trading FA signees until sometime in June? I know there used to be, not sure if there still is.

im no expert, but Ken Rosenthal says that sign and trades are still banned. The point is to keep teams from accumulating sandwich picks via sign and trade deals. In this case if sign and trades were legal the Twins could trade Stauffer to San Diego, San Diego could then have Stauffer and the Comp pick they received for Stauffer (assuming qualifying offer was made) and the Twins would get whatever the agreed upon tradeable asset, say AAAA CFer. It would drive up the instances of qualifying offers and collusion.

[Willihammer]

Graham looks like a solid pickup.

https://twitter.com/MillerStrib/status/579367720996728832

[travis.aune]

I think Graham is a lock for the last pen spot unless he implodes the last 2 weeks of camp.  That being said Blaine Boyer has been quite impressive as well and he has an opt out I believe march 31st.  I could be wrong on the exact date, but I know he has an opt out date.  What I would do is keep Graham and try to work out an agreement with Boyer to send him to Rochester, maybe a new opt out date of like June 1st.  I have been quite impressed with Boyer and is someone i would like to keep in the organization.

[Thrylos]

 

I think Graham is a lock for the last pen spot unless he implodes the last 2 weeks of camp.  That being said Blaine Boyer has been quite impressive as well and he has an opt out I believe march 31st.  I could be wrong on the exact date, but I know he has an opt out date.  What I would do is keep Graham and try to work out an agreement with Boyer to send him to Rochester, maybe a new opt out date of like June 1st.  I have been quite impressed with Boyer and is someone i would like to keep in the organization.

 

I don't see a reason for the Twins not to start with both Graham and Boyer.  This would mean no Thielbar and no Milone (both have options).  Then there is the Stauffer scholarship spot.  Boyer pitched well when I saw him the other day.  3 solid pitches good command, but velo still not there.  He also quit baseball last season, so part of the deal is to see whether or not he wants to do this.  That's why the opt out

[jorgenswest]

No team would have signed a decline phase low leverage reliever with poor road numbers with absolute expectation that he would be on the roster. There had to be some conversation about the risk that they may need to release him.

 

There is also no reason to give a low leverage spot to a pitcher with no upside.

 

At the time of his signing, they had to be thinking that he is either a cheap 2 million dollar replacement for Burton or released if he didnt look like he would help in that role.

 

Any trade talk is futile. The signed him for 2 million and if anything his stock has gone down. Any team that wanted him this winter could have had him easily. Why would they trade for him? Why would they give up a player and pay the price that they wouldn't pay his winter?

[travis.aune]

lets give him some time he was fine in his first relief appearance and lets see how he does.  Whether you think it is a scholarship program or not he is going to be on the opening day roster.  This is not a Twins thing this is everyone when you give someone money they most likely are going to be given the benefit of the doubt in the real games.  If he i struggling in May they might rethink their position, but there is no way you commit to someone on a mlb deal and bail because they struggled in Spring Training it just is not logical.

[jorgenswest]

Travis has a point about the Twins.

 

However it is 2.2 million. It is an amount similar to a small arbitration award. The salaries of Duensing, Milone, Schafer and Nunez surround Stauffer's salary.

 

I will follow this spring if any teams are willing to release a player at that commitment level. If the Twins aren't willing, that means that they have fixed roster spots for 5 near replacement level players before the first day of spring.

[biswrest]

I'm tired of the twins during a rebuild keeping around mediocre vets. Let's go with the kids with upside.

[nicksaviking]

Due to Ryan's comments about taking the best pitchers regardless of handedness and Molitor's comments about a different usage of the pen, I don't think Theilbar is a lock, and I certainly don't think Mione is a lock if he doesn't make the rotation. While Ryan obviously has final say, Molitor doesn't strike me as a guy who will keep quiet if the GM tries to stick him with an 85 MPH flyball pitcher in his pen. And for what it's worth, Ithink Ryan knows better as well.

[stringer bell]

Regarding Boyer, what's to say that if he's first in line for a recall, that he might renegotiate his buyout date or disregard it altogether. The Twins probably don't want to use the last options on guys unless they have to, but perhaps they will have to on Thielbar.

[Rosterman]

Forget Stauffer's contract. If anything, you eat part of it and hope he picks up with someone else. This is the team that gave ZUmaya $750,000 to blow his arm out in a spring training appearance.

 

Sometimes contracts only have to pay so much if you release a player before the end of spring training.

 

The hopes are that so many of these arms are simply place setters before we get to Burdi, Reed, Zack Jones, Cederoth, Curtiss, Clay. We still have arms in the minors that aren't here on the major league side of spring training.

 

I'm torn between putting potential starters in the bullpen (May) or even Pelfrey bocking someone more worthy, or keeping Milone because he is a lefty and a starter. I say the 12 best no matter what.......

 

 

[beckmt]

I have always liked pitchers with stuff.  I hope both Graham and Boyer make the team depending on the last two weeks of spring training.  Either Stauffer or a starter will be the long man.  Will wait and see how Plefrey does in the next two weeks. Both Milone and May have options, so if all things are equal I think Plefrey wins the fifth starter battle and depending on Stauffer, either Milone or May could be the long man, depending on warmup times. Graham will probably get his feet wet in mop roles and Boyer could well wind up the 7th inning man.

BTW - I hope this all changes by July and we see the young troops arrive.  

This bullpen could totally implode and end the Twins season early and like others I would almost like to see Burdi start here and some of the other flame throwers by mid season.  Hopefully the Twins will still be competitive by then.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I am surprised at the Boyer love. He turns 34 in July and has a career 6.3 K/9 and 90 ERA+ out of the pen. And he is 102 days short of full free agency, so if he spends 3.5 months with the Twins this year, we will almost certainly lose him for nothing after the season (or have to re-sign/extend him at market rates). Given his closeness to FA, it is doubtful that you will be able to trade him for much, even if performs well. And once he's on the team, I don't think you can send him to minors without his permission -- the only way to separate from him would be trade or release.

 

Wouldn't we rather see if Oliveros, Achter, Tonkin, etc. can be cheap, valuable parts in our bullpen, both this year and 2016-2021? Or at least let them learn/work extensively with our MLB pitchers and staff? Those guys have options too, so they can easily be swapped between MLB and AAA as needed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Wouldn't we rather see if Oliveros, Achter, Tonkin, etc. can be cheap, valuable parts in our bullpen, both this year and 2016-2021? Or at least let them learn/work extensively with our MLB pitchers and staff? Those guys have options too, so they can easily be swapped between MLB and AAA as needed.

Yes. Given the current bullpen options, I think it's time to see if some of the guys in the upper minors can miss MLB bats.

[beckmt]

Twins also need to sell tickets.  Another 90+ loss season will not help.  You go with your best 25 and if things do not work out make the changes.  Bullpen could implode either way.  Would not want to increase the changes of that. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

This story makes me root for Boyer a little bit:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/blaine-boyer-and-his-personal-entourage.html

 

I'd probably root for him more if Stauffer wasn't already guaranteed a spot, though...

[h2oface]

Please cut Boyer loose. It is time for young blood. 

[Paul Pleiss]

Boyer seems to be an admirable guy. Playing baseball for the right reasons with a strong family support system in place. He's a great guy to root for, but I don't think he's one of the best options out of the pen. God speed to him and his family. There may be a bullpen spot for him in the big leagues, but I don't think it's in Minnesota.