Article: Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 2015 Version 3.0

[beckmt]

Oliveros has already been sent out.  I think it is possible that if all the Twins starters continue to pitch well in the next couple of weeks, there will be a trade at the end of spring training.  It is still early only next week will we see the regulars and players with a chance of making the roster play most of the time.  When relievers start seeing major league hitters in the late innings things will change.  Too much stress over the first two weeks of games.

[mikelink45]

Boring is not the adjective that a time that lost 90 games four years in a row and are losing fans at a fast clip should want, yet that is what we have.  Houston blew things up and brought in youth, now it is on the verge of turning things around.  The cubs traded and brought up youth and everyone is excited by their chances.  The White Sox did not pay for replacement players and they suddenly got exciting.  But the Twins cut Meyer and insert Nolasco, Milone, Pelfry...  wouldn't it have been exciting if the rotation had been Hughes, Meyer, May, Berrios, Gibson?  Might not have won, but heck we still won't win.  And what if we had Buxton, Rosario and Arcia in the outfield figuring things out and Sano on third and Mauer traded and young guys like Vargas and Pinto sharing time there and at DH?  And Tomkins, Burdi, Achter in the bullpen with Graham, Perkins, and Fien. Somehow that would have been exciting even if we were still last in the division.

 

Now my desire is for a trade as soon as possible for the pitchers and vets that clog the major league artery. 

[Kwak]

Wait!  $21MM was added to the budget this year to "build for the future"--these guys are supposed to "win now".  The active roster will skew "old" by design.  Milhone, Pelfrey, Stauffer and whatever veterans will be the pitching staff.  Position players will also skew old. 

 

I believe the real challenge will be this Summer:  If the team (somehow) is winning, is more money spent to truly "win now", or is it the same old soft shoe we saw before?; If the team is losing (as expected) do they promote the minor leaguers en masse (like this decade) and charge major league prices for minor league talent and hope the experience the new players get truly develop them?; Or, stick with the status quo for the rest of the season, thus wasting another year?  Considering my calendar said "Spring" arrived just yesterday, I guess I will have to wait until my calendar says "Summer".

[Danchat]

 

He never signed with the Twins, that I've seen, so I doubt either option is likely.

He definitely signed with the Twins. There was a discussion a few months back about him.

 

Oddly enough, I haven't heard one thing about Brayan Villarreal since he signed the deal. He'll probably be a reliever in AAA to start the year.

[jimmer]

 

I honestly think Rosario makes this team over hicks.

That would be interesting, but it may not come down to one or the other.  I doubt Rosario starts the season on the 25 man roster.

[Twins33]

 

He definitely signed with the Twins. There was a discussion a few months back about him.

 

Oddly enough, I haven't heard one thing about Brayan Villarreal since he signed the deal. He'll probably be a reliever in AAA to start the year.

There were reports that he signed with the Twins in December, but Reusse has said that is not true.

 

Feb 12th blog from Ruesse: 

The latest information found on the Internet involving the career of right-handed reliever Brayan Villarreal is that he signed with the Twins in mid-December. Villarreal did not sign with the Twins, nor did he take a physical as a precursor to signing with the Twins. As of mid-week, there was no information that Villarreal had signed with any team.

I believe Wolfson has also said it's not true, but it was via Twitter and I can't find the tweet.

 

Edited March 21, 2015 by Twins33

[jorgenswest]

Back to roster decisions...

 

It is clear the Twins don't want a young pitcher who can work his way out of command trouble with great stuff. They would prefer a veteran pitcher who has no stuff to get him out of trouble as a result of contact and poor defense.

 

This quote from an article by Eno Sarris might be relevant.

 

The implication seems clear: assemble as much young pitching as possible, and try not to spend too much money on free agent starters.

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/72512952/major-league-baseball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age

 

I wrote about how it isn't unusual for pitchers with good stuff to have high walk rates in the minors. Some teams will bring those pitchers to the majors in spite of their walk rate.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6339-alex-meyer-and-aaa-walk-rates/#commentsStart

 

One theory on the higher walk rates is that minor league hitters can't make as much contact against pitchers with good stuff. This forces longer counts and more walks. Instead of poor contact and an out early in a count, they are making no contact.

 

If the Twins wait long enough, Meyer's command will improve as a result of a decline in fastball. According to Sarris's graph, velocity starts taking a noticeable drop at around age 26-27. They will be comfortable to bring him up then with some of the similarly aging reliever candidates.

[Danchat]

@Twins33

 

OK, that probably explains why I haven't heard anything about him in Spring Training.

It's odd though, the Internet believes he's playing for the Twins. MLB Trade Rumors, Rotoworld, and many others think so... I believe Reusse, though.

 

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

I think a starting 5 of Hughes, Gibson, May, Meyer, and Berrios would be exciting at least 40% of the time, but it would be exciting for the opposing lineup.

 

I love the potential in our kids, and I'm as anxious as anyone to see them in Twins unis, but Meyer would struggle to get through the 5th inning, Berrios was ineffective in his triple-a starts at the end of last year, Buxton has 3 ab's above A ball, and Sano hasn't played in a year. Letting them start in the minors is not the end of the world.

 

Boring is not the adjective that a time that lost 90 games four years in a row and are losing fans at a fast clip should want, yet that is what we have. Houston blew things up and brought in youth, now it is on the verge of turning things around. The cubs traded and brought up youth and everyone is excited by their chances. The White Sox did not pay for replacement players and they suddenly got exciting. But the Twins cut Meyer and insert Nolasco, Milone, Pelfry... wouldn't it have been exciting if the rotation had been Hughes, Meyer, May, Berrios, Gibson? Might not have won, but heck we still won't win. And what if we had Buxton, Rosario and Arcia in the outfield figuring things out and Sano on third and Mauer traded and young guys like Vargas and Pinto sharing time there and at DH? And Tomkins, Burdi, Achter in the bullpen with Graham, Perkins, and Fien. Somehow that would have been exciting even if we were still last in the division.

 

Now my desire is for a trade as soon as possible for the pitchers and vets that clog the major league artery.

[gbg]

There was definitely a report that he signed. But that report was later retracted.

 

If he is with the Twins, he's not on their latest minor league work groups - not even EST.

He definitely signed with the Twins. There was a discussion a few months back about him.

 

Oddly enough, I haven't heard one thing about Brayan Villarreal since he signed the deal. He'll probably be a reliever in AAA to start the year.

 

[tobi0040]

 

That would be interesting, but it may not come down to one or the other.  I doubt Rosario starts the season on the 25 man roster.

 

That is a consideration.  But I think the story that has not gotten much of any traction is how much better Rosario is than Hicks defensively.  Hicks was not the main issue defensively last year, but he was below average. I think the thought proceess that young + athletic = good outfielder has not been proven here. Getting better play out of CF would help the defense and I think Rosario is a good enough hitter to blow by the low bar Hicks has put up so far on that side of the bar as well.

 

Molitor said that Hicks needs to "reclaim" the CF spot in order to break camp.

 

Rosario .237/.704, 4 XBH in 38 AB (2 HR, 3B, and 2B)

 

Hicks .222/.684, 2 XBH in 27 AB. 

 

Rosario has gunned down two runners already. 

 

If it is a competition...hard to argue Hicks is ahead. Rosario is not setting the world on fire, but it does look like the same old Hicks.  Very low BA, walking a bit, no power. My bare minimum on Rosario is that he will likely hit double digit HR's and should have quite a few doubles, so that alone should exceed Hicks at the plate.

 

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_27744047/twins-eddie-rosario-aaron-hicks-need-win-center

Edited March 23, 2015 by tobi0040

[jorgenswest]

I sure hope the Twins are not looking at spring training stats in making roster decisions.

Edited March 24, 2015 by jorgenswest

[ashbury]

 

I sure hope the Twins are not looking at spring training stats in making roster decisions.

Stats are hard enough to evaluate in the regular season. ST suffers from small sample size plus a very uneven level of competition, at bat to at bat.

 

I do hope the Twins are looking at spring training performance, though - just like at all times. If a hitter on the bubble is getting a few hits against weaker pitchers but is getting himself out on major league quality breaking pitches, for example, or a pitcher conversely is getting swinging strikeouts mainly against young players getting their first taste, I very much want the decision makers to take notice.

[stringer bell]

Well, LEN3 hosted Twinschat on the strib today.  He thinks Fryer is in the lead for backup catcher after Pinto suffered his shots to the head.  Secondly, he seems to be hinting that Rosario is in the lead for left field, meaning either Vargas or Arcia are in jeopardy of being dispatched to the minors.  As for the pitching staff, it seems Boyer and Graham have excellent chances to make the bullpen. 

[ashbury]

 

either Vargas or Arcia are in jeopardy of being dispatched to the minors.

Arcia being optioned would be the "new sheriff in town" move that I've been expecting Molitor to make at some point in Spring. Send a message to the lollygaggers, or whatever, dontcha know. "You can't play on my team. Not like that."

[stringer bell]

I'm still wondering about Pinto. He is doing baseball activities, but probably won't play on the major league team for several more days. LEN3 said that he thought that Fryer was in the lead for backup catcher (ugh!), which would also cut loose somebody on the 40-man roster.

 

With Pinto losing at least a week, it kind of figures that Molitor might go with someone else to back up Suzuki. Does anyone know the rules for the concussion DL? Can Pinto be placed on the list retroactively? Can he do a rehab after being cleared? It would save using an option for what could be a short-term demotion to Rochester. It is legitimate that Pinto has been set back by his injury. I still think they will send him to Rochester for rehab and go with Herrmann (on the 40-man) for the brief duration when Pinto is unavailable.

[John Bonnes]

FWIW, Everyone seems very optimistic about Pinto. I'll be surprised if he doesn't make the roster right now.And personally, I feel like it will be Herrmann who gets the job over Fryer.

 

I'll be shocked if Rosario is playing left field over Arcia on opening day. Stunned. I will be a lot less surprised if he's the center fielder.

[Dantes929]

I am not so down on this group.   First of all 2011 was a freak year with injuries and we had a lousy farm system.  2012 was about finding the answers to all the question marks 2011 created.   2013 was the first true rebuilding year and if you look at the roster then compared to now it really is pretty different and but for some injuries that could happen to anyone we would likely be seeing Sano and Buxton by now also.  I guess I just have patience especially when I see good things around the corner..   

 

I continue to be confounded by no one else seeing the logic in a Hicks/Schaeffer platoon until 
Buxton and Rosario are ready.

 

All it would take for me to be excited would be May making the rotation though as has been pointed out many times, the Opening Day roster will not be the roster set in stone for the rest of the year.

[stringer bell]

Reusse's column is on the strib website.  He is saying that Arcia has been disappointing this spring.  Reusse seems to be saying this is Hicks' last stand. 

[curt1965]

Back to roster decisions...

It is clear the Twins don't want a young pitcher who can work his way out of command trouble with great stuff. They would prefer a veteran pitcher who has no stuff to get him out of trouble as a result of contact and poor defense.

This quote from an article by Eno Sarris might be relevant.

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/72512952/major-league-baseball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age

I wrote about how it isn't unusual for pitchers with good stuff to have high walk rates in the minors. Some teams will bring those pitchers to the majors in spite of their walk rate.http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6339-alex-meyer-and-aaa-walk-rates/#commentsStart

One theory on the higher walk rates is that minor league hitters can't make as much contact against pitchers with good stuff. This forces longer counts and more walks. Instead of poor contact and an out early in a count, they are making no contact.

If the Twins wait long enough, Meyer's command will improve as a result of a decline in fastball. According to Sarris's graph, velocity starts taking a noticeable drop at around age 26-27. They will be comfortable to bring him up then with some of the similarly aging reliever candidates.

Did you see Meyer's last outing before he was sent down? Apparently not. It was not a question of having control- his pitches were not in the same STATE from where they started in Florida! I, too, have been a Meyer fan, but you just cannot have a pitcher who has no clue where the pitch is going make the final cut to go north with the rest. Either his mechanics or his makeup need some time to work out the problem. It wouldn't be fair to him to face big league hitters in his present condition.

[tobi0040]

 

Reusse's column is on the strib website.  He is saying that Arcia has been disappointing this spring.  Reusse seems to be saying this is Hicks' last stand. 

 

I read it too.  I don't think we trade Hicks if he does not make the team. One way or another I think he gets another shot. Whether that means he makes the team or goes to AAA to start and gets another month or two at some point this year.

 

Regarding Arcia, I think he makes the team but if he continues to put up poor at bats and look really bad in LF he goes down at some point.  I think it highlights to an extent how silly it was to put him in LF.

 

Come July-August, I think the OF is Rosario in LF, Buxton in CF, and Arcia in right (Hunter traded).  I think that is at least an average OF defense.  Which means we see a huge improvement there.

Edited March 26, 2015 by tobi0040

[Vance_Christianson]

 

I read it too.  I don't think we trade Hicks if he does not make the team. One way or another I think he gets another shot. Whether that means he makes the team or goes to AAA to start and gets another month or two at some point this year.

 

Regarding Arcia, I think he makes the team but if he continues to put up poor at bats and look really bad in LF he goes down at some point.  I think it highlights to an extent how silly it was to put him in LF.

 

Come July-August, I think the OF is Rosario in LF, Buxton in CF, and Arcia in right (Hunter traded).  I think that is at least an average OF defense.  Which means we see a huge improvement there.

I agree on the OF with Rosario, Buxton, and Arcia being the starting 3, but there is no way that they are going to trade Hunter! They overpaid him to come back to Minnesota to help these young OF's.

I like having depth between our youth and current roster, but we have way too many poor defensive players that should probably be DH. LOGJAM at DH with Vargas, Hunter, Arcia, and possibly Sano when he comes up. I like the Hunter signing a lot, as him and Molitor are going to rip into these young kids when needed to get us to the next step aka winning! We are about to have a serious logjam at DH, 1st, and OF in the next year or so. Rosario, Buxton, Arcia, Hicks (maybe?), Kepler, Walker, Vargas, Sano, Hunter, Mauer, and Harrison. That is 11 players that could be on the brink/ready for MLB ball in 2016 to play OF, 1st, and DH. LOGJAM!!! We also have 8 Starting Pitchers that could probably all pitch right now for the big league club. Meyer (already in minors camp) and May are 25, and probably are going to AAA. 25 years old in AAA, their value is diminishining by the second down there! I'm sure injuries will happen and they'll get their shot, but damnit, lets make sure they do and not freaking Logan Darnell or Yohan Pino (not with us anymore) like last year. Meyer and May just need their time in the majors. At age 25 it is time to sink or swim with Meyer, May, and Hicks.

Edited March 26, 2015 by Vance_Christianson

[tobi0040]

 

I agree on the OF with Rosario, Buxton, and Arcia being the starting 3, but there is no way that they are going to trade Hunter! They overpaid him to come back to Minnesota to help these young OF's.

I like having depth between our youth and current roster, but we have way too many poor defensive players that should probably be DH. LOGJAM at DH with Vargas, Hunter, Arcia, and possibly Sano when he comes up. I like the Hunter signing a lot, as him and Molitor are going to rip into these young kids when needed to get us to the next step aka winning! We are about to have a serious logjam at DH, 1st, and OF in the next year or so. Rosario, Buxton, Arcia, Hicks (maybe?), Kepler, Walker, Vargas, Sano, Hunter, Mauer, and Harrison. That is 11 players that could be on the brink/ready for MLB ball in 2016 to play OF, 1st, and DH. LOGJAM!!! We also have 8 Starting Pitchers that could probably all pitch right now for the big league club. Meyer (already in minors camp) and May are 25, and probably are going to AAA. 25 years old in AAA, their value is diminishining by the second down there! I'm sure injuries will happen and they'll get their shot, but damnit, lets make sure they do and not freaking Logan Darnell or Yohan Pino (not with us anymore) like last year. Meyer and May just need their time in the majors. At age 25 it is time to sink or swim with Meyer, May, and Hicks.

 

I would not be too shocked if a July or August trade to a contender was not part of the discussions between Ryan and Hunter before he signed.  If Buxton and Rosario are both ready to play in July or August, I don't see the Twins not giving them reps.  Maybe that means Hunter plays in the OF twice a week and plays DH a few times, or maybe that means they move him to a contending team.

 

 

 

[stringer bell]

Warning: After watching Buxton in person for most of the week, he has a very long way to go. He is still a supremely talented athlete, but the hit tool seems to have regressed at this point.

[KirbyHawk75]

I really cannot see Hunter being traded this year.  

Also, I really do not believe Buxton should be up here this year unless he really progresses.  He is only 21.  Last year was a waste.   Yes, I want to see Buxton and Sano.  But, I do not want them rushed at all.  

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I really cannot see Hunter being traded this year.  

Also, I really do not believe Buxton should be up here this year unless he really progresses.  He is only 21.  Last year was a waste.   Yes, I want to see Buxton and Sano.  But, I do not want them rushed at all.  

 

I agree with all of this.

[gil4]

 

I continue to be confounded by no one else seeing the logic in a Hicks/Schaeffer platoon until 
Buxton and Rosario are ready.

 

With the 12-man pitching staffs (and sometimes 13) there just aren't enough roster spots to keep both sides of a platoon.  The RH batter in the platoon just doesn't get enough AB in a strict platoon. 

 

If both make the team, they will likely designate one the starting CF and the other the 4th OF, and Hicks will likely get his rest days vs. RHP, Schaeffer will get his rest days vs. LHP.   In order to give the corner OF days off both will get ABs against the non-platoon pitching.  It's a semi platoon, but lots of people have talked about this arrangement. 

 

I think the one concern is Hicks will have to hit RHP in order to have a useful career.  Do we keep him in the majors and limit his exposure or do we send him to AAA, give him ABs both ways, and hope he progresses some more?

Edited March 26, 2015 by gil4

[tobi0040]

 

With the 12-man pitching staffs (and sometimes 13) there just aren't enough roster spots to keep both sides of a platoon.  The RH batter in the platoon just doesn't get enough AB in a strict platoon. 

 

If both make the team, they will likely designate one the starting CF and the other the 4th OF, and Hicks will likely get his rest days vs. RHP, Schaeffer will get his rest days vs. LHP.   In order to give the corner OF days off both will get ABs against the non-platoon pitching.  It's a semi platoon, but lots of people have talked about this arrangement. 

 

I think the one concern is Hicks will have to hit RHP in order to have a useful career.  Do we keep him in the majors and limit his exposure or do we send him to AAA, give him ABs both ways, and hope he progresses some more?

 

My opinion.  Hunter signed here because we offered the most money and it likely was not even close.  He gets to check the box, come home, work with the young guys in camp and maybe for some period of time (Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton).  If we are on pace for 77 wins in August and young guys are knocking on the door and needs reps, I think it makes sense for all parties if he is moved to a contender for one last hurrah.  Just like Jim Thome.  I guess I don't know who would object

 

 

Edited March 26, 2015 by tobi0040

[Dantes929]

1.  

   With the 12-man pitching staffs (and sometimes 13) there just aren't enough roster spots to keep both sides of a platoon.  The RH batter in the platoon just doesn't get enough AB in a strict platoon. 

    

   If both make the team, they will likely designate one the starting CF and the other the 4th OF, and Hicks will likely get his rest days vs. RHP, Schaeffer will get his rest days vs. LHP.   In order to give the corner OF days off both will get ABs against the non-platoon pitching.  It's a semi platoon, but lots of people have talked about this arrangement. 

    

   I think the one concern is Hicks will have to hit RHP in order to have a useful career.  Do we keep him in the majors and limit his exposure or do we send him to AAA, give him ABs both ways, and hope he progresses some more?

   I get the arguments against but they just don't speak to me.   We need a 4th outfielder anyway so the non starter for the game either pinch hits for the other late in the game or moves to a corner to replace Arcia or Hunter for defense.   It makes way more sense that the strict platoon at an infield spot.    Hicks has shown very little competency from the left side (.185 career avg and .272 OBP.  That's right.   .272 OBP) and respectable numbers from the right side.   (.410 OBP in 2014).   Any spot in the batting order can expect to see between 200 and 250 plate appearances against left handed pitching but of course with pitching changes that will be reduced a bit in a platoon system.   Sill, I see a lot of  value in 200 at bats and late inning defense.   I don't see a lot of value in sending him to the minors where he may or may not show enough competency to hit from he left side to be promoted and even if he does it will be on nearly the same time line we would want Rosario or Buxton to make the jump.   Yes, Schaeffer and HIcks will both get some at bats from the other side but in a platoon you are maximizing their strengths and minimizing their weaknesses. 

2. It seems like half the fans want to just give up on him and get rid of him for nothing and the other half want to send him to the minors with the assumption (imo,  assuming way too much that he will prove he can hit from the left side in just a couple months.   I just think there is middle ground here that is valuable.    I hope I am wrong, that he comes north and has an all star career.   If I am right he will fail again in the majors or go to the minors, not hit from the left side and they give up on him thereby losing what value he can give at a time they could use it.

[Willihammer]

Man, did anyone see Monday's game? Nunez was 0/3 in his first 3 opportunities at SS.

 

1st chance - 3 hopper up the middle, Nunez ranged to his left, ball bounced off top of his glove into CF

2nd chance - (2nd inning IIRC). slow grounder, sailed throw, batter reaches

3rd chance - eaten up by a hard short-hop. Hit.

 

I know its an extremely SSS but he really seemed out of place in that game.

Edited March 26, 2015 by Willihammer