Article: Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 2015 Version 3.0

[Seth Stohs]

It has now been two weeks since I put together my second Twins Opening Day roster projection, so it is time for Version 3.0. Since the second version of the projection, I have spent about a week in Ft. Myers, and we've been keeping up with Nick's daily reports. There weren't a lot of positions up for grabs, so today, we'll try to look at the possible scenarios as we are just over two weeks from opening day.When a player becomes a “given” for the roster (in my opinion), I will highlight the player’s name in red. Trades and signings can happen at any time between now and opening day, but that just means that even “givens” can change. We will also be able to learn, over time, what it is that Paul Molitor will look for from his roster. Feel free to discuss below.

 

 

Catchers (2): Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto

 

Kurt Suzuki is the clear-cut starter and deservedly so after last year. I still believe that Josmil Pinto is the front-runner to be the backup catcher to start the season. He missed the first week of games with a quad injury, but since his return, he has hit, and he even threw out a would-be base stealer the other day. If he is the backup, my sense is that there are some veteran starters that he would not work with.

 

Chris Herrmann has been one of the better offensive performers this spring. He's hit for average and has several extra base hits. Defensively, he does a nice job behind the plate. Although he can play elsewhere, he wants the coaches to know that he wants to be a catcher.

 

Infielders (7): Kennys Vargas, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez

 

Two weeks ago, I wrote here that I thought Eduardo Nunez was a given to make the roster. Though I still feel that he is the heavy favorite for the 25th man spot, I feel that Chris Herrmann and his defensive versatility is also a strong candidate for the spot.

 

Nunez has played third base, shortstop and second base this spring, and we saw him in left field and right field in 2014. Herrmann has played left field, first base and caught this spring, but we know he can play right field as well, and could play third base and center field in a pinch. Nunez bats right-handed. Herrmann bats left-handed. Nunez is out of options. Herrmann has one option remaining.

Outfielders (4): Oswaldo Arcia, Torii Hunter, Jordan Schafer, Aaron Hicks

 

The corner outfield spots are secured, and we know that Jordan Schafer will get a roster spot as well. I still believe that Aaron Hicks is the heavy favorite to be the starting center fielder, but he has an option remaining and there are other options. Here are the scenarios as I see them.

 

#1 - Aaron Hicks is the starter. Jordan Schafer is the fourth outfielder

#2 - Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson platoon in center field with the other being the fourth outfielder.

#3 - Eddie Rosario is the starter. Jordan Schafer is the fourth outfielder.

 

I think that #3 is the least likely and expect Rosario to be optioned shortly. As I noted above, I think #1 is the most likely scenario. However, #2 is also possible, especially after we learned this week that Robinson has an opt-out on April 2. Of course, he would need to be added to the 40-man roster to make the team.

Starting Pitchers (5): Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone

 

Pending any injury scenario, the first four are givens. I believe that Tommy Milone is getting really close to securing the fifth starter job. That said, Mike Pelfrey has pitched quite well this spring and Trevor May is a little behind (due to illness the first week of spring) but could still get the job.

 

The Twins used Alex Meyer's first option on Friday morning, sending him to minor league camp.

 

Bullpen (7): Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Brian Duensing, Tim Stauffer, Caleb Thielbar, Mike Pelfrey, JR Graham.

 

The first five on the above list are givens. I continue to believe that Mike Pelfrey will get a bullpen spot, especially with how well he is pitching this spring.

 

The real question, in my opinion, is the final bullpen spot. I'll continue to keep JR Graham there. He has an explosive arm and as long as he remains healthy, he has a chance to be a very good reliever. He's also got enough upside that they might want to try to keep him around even if he doesn't have a big role in 2015.

 

The other options on the 40-man roster are AJ Achter, Michael Tonkin and Ryan Pressly. There is a case made for each of them, though Pressly has struggled at times this spring. I think that Tonkin would be the favorite if the Twins do decide to either send Graham back to Atlanta or work out a trade with the team.

 

 

What are your thoughts? Not much change in this version from the previous one, though within the next week we should learn much more about some of the roster spots. What does your roster look like one month from opening day?

 

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[brvama]

Seth I mostly agree this is the team going north to start the season. Unless Nunez falters badly from here I think they use the final option on Herrmann and he's the first utility type called up. I also think that Thielbar could be on a bubble or short leash with the arms available in AAA. Hicks needs to maintain his production or he's going back to the Red Wings and they bring Robinson to start the season as a fourth OF or platoon with Schafer. Then it'll be a battle between him and Rosario to be the first up.

[diehardtwinsfan]

7 infielders for 4 spots?  Seems like a lot there.  I think they'll want a bat they can use to PH for a weaker spot.  May end up being Nunez, but I'm failing to see Herrman here given that he's not a very good hitter.  He may be versatile, but he's not a defensive whiz out there either.

[stringer bell]

Three competitors for one spot. Nunez is the best hitter, has base stealing speed and plays five positions (although not well). Herrmann can catch acceptably, hits LH, and adds versatility of playing all the closest positions to the chalk lines. Robinson plays all three outfield positions and is a good defender. Added to the decision is Herrmann has an option, Nunez has none, and Robinson isn't on the 40-man.

[Paul Pleiss]

Herrmann has no place on this roster. I struggle to find a legit reason to roster Nunez as well, but given the choice between the two, I would actually pick Nunez. If there was a dislike post, I'd dislike this. It makes me sick just to agree that maybe Nunez is the best option, despite knowing he probably shouldnt be an option at all.

[Mike Sixel]

One of the worst teams in baseball.....no room for any rookies again this year. Hopefully it won't take as long for help to come this year as it has in recent years. Hopefully, the guys that came up last year produce this year. But it boggles the mind that this many years into the rebuild that they can't find room for any rookies.

[curt1965]

Seth, I had forgotten that May was ill the first week of ST. How has he looked since? What do you see for his chances this year? Is he just a starter, or could he possibly be used out of the pen early in the year?

[jokin]

 

One of the worst teams in baseball.....no room for any rookies again this year. Hopefully it won't take as long for help to come this year as it has in recent years. Hopefully, the guys that came up last year produce this year. But it boggles the mind that this many years into the rebuild that they can't find room for any rookies.

 

This.  I held out some hope in my early forecast that the "new-look" Twins were going to break the recent same-old-same-old mold with Molly.  You said it, it is mind-boggling that the reality appears to be that at least one projected 2015 opening day lineup is somehow going to be nearly the same average age as the 2014 opening day team... and that's with including Santana, Vargas and Arcia in the lineup, and with Hughes starting instead of Nolasco.  (Last year, opening day average age was 29.3, this year, with Schafer in CF, the average would be 28.5).

 

 

Edited March 20, 2015 by jokin

[jimmer]

I think it's fair to say that since Santana, Vargas and Arcia are relatively new to the majors, we're starting to see some turn around to younger players.  I imagine we'll be really young next opening day with likely three more rookie position players playing.

 

Of course one of our pitching rookies will probably be 26, and we'll likely have a 41 year old on the roster so maybe that average age won't drop as much as it should :-)

Edited March 20, 2015 by jimmer

[USNMCPO]

Tonkin sent down to work on his off speed pitches.

[jokin]

 

I think it's fair to say that since Santana, Vargas and Arcia are relatively new to the majors, we're starting to see some turn around to younger players.  I imagine we'll be really young next opening day with likely three more rookie position players playing.

 

Of course one of our pitching rookies will probably be 26, and we'll likely have a 41 year old on the roster so maybe that average age won't drop as much as it should :-)

 

2014 Opening Day pitching staff average age:

 

29.75

 

2015 Opening Day pitching staff average age (Seth's prediction)::

 

29.83

 

(If Boyer sneaks in, that should put the average over 30.  JR Graham, at 25, looks like the only rookie-infusion according to Seth...  Would it be all that surprising if the Twins make a trade with the Braves in order to keep and then send Graham to AAA?)

Edited March 20, 2015 by jokin

[jorgenswest]

... and the cycle of mediocrity continues.

 

The worst bullpen in the AL. The only changes are Burton to Stauffer. Swarzak to Pelfrey. Deduno to Graham. Everyone else is another year into their decline. The younger AAA arms are getting older in the minors. They are all already past their age of peak velocity.

Edited March 20, 2015 by jorgenswest

[jimmer]

 

2014 Opening Day pitching staff average age:

 

29.75

 

2015 Opening Day pitching staff average age (Seth's prediction)::

 

29.83

 

(If Boyer sneaks in, that should put the average over 30.  JR Graham, at 25, looks like the only rookie-infusion according to Seth...  Would it be all that surprising if the Twins make a trade with the Braves in order to keep and then send Graham to AAA?)

IMO, we are definitely older than we should be and our youngsters should be getting more MLB playing time. Would we really rather watch Hunter and Rosario?  I'd rather Rosario get some time.

[Thrylos]

My (first and) latest take on the roster is here.  As far as rookies go, I think that Rosario and Graham can still make the team.  Not sure that Theilbar should be a given.

[jokin]

 

My (first and) latest take on the roster is here.  As far as rookies go, I think that Rosario and Graham can still make the team.  Not sure that Theilbar should be a given.

 

I agree about T-Bar, he has an option left.  But who would be the LHP that displaces him?

 

With their love of signing bargain bin vets, I still think Boyer might displace someone.  

[Thrylos]

 

I agree about T-Bar, he has an option left.  But who would be the LHP that displaces him?

 

With their love of signing bargain bin vets, I still think Boyer might displace someone.  

 

They got 2 LHPs. Perkins and Duensing.  I think that's enough.

 

I did like what I have seen from Boyer today.  3 pitches with plus command.  I would not leave Archer out of the equation yet, as well...

 

Still this pen does not have a dominant arm (or two) and this might be a problem

[Shane Wahl]

For whatever reason, Eduardo Nunez is still on the team. Given this and Herrmann's option, clearly Nunez will be the last bench spot. I do think that it is finally time for Herrmann to be able to contribute with a .260/.340/.340 kind of line and real versatility defensively. Nunez is potentially already in decline phase of his career and might bring a .650 OPS at best. 

 

Shane Robinson shouldn't be in consideration. I don't know how many times I have said this. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I agree about T-Bar, he has an option left. But who would be the LHP that displaces him?

 

With their love of signing bargain bin vets, I still think Boyer might displace someone.

Does Boyer have an opt-out?

[TheLeviathan]

I think this is really unsurprising, but man I hope by July first we have a lot more names to be excited about on this roster.  May, Meyer, Sano, Rosario, the relievers, etc.  

 

To be fair though, this time last year we didn't have as many young guys with stories to pay attention to.  Santana, Vargas, and Arcia alone have more intrigue to them than we've seen in awhile.

[jorgenswest]

Doesn't Herrmann's option give the team more flexibility? They will need a 13th pitcher at some point. Herrmann can move back and forth when that is necessary. Escobar, Schafer and Robinson don't come with that same flexibility. Pinto and Hicks have an option but I don't think they would want them going back and forth.

 

It will be easier to get Nunez through when every team is trying to cut down to 25. His arb1 salary also might make it less likely someone would claim him.

[Danchat]

Does Brayan Villareal have a chance at the roster, or is he going to be a mid-season option to be called up? Well, it's probably gonna be the latter...

 

Wow, our competition for these last roster spots aren't that exciting. It's a lose-lose between Nunez and Herrmann, and old veterans like Shane Robinson and Boyer might make the team.

 

Oh well. If they play poorly, they'll be shown the door quickly and younger guys will be making their way up eventually.

[Rosterman]

Will centerfield have an AAA platoon while the prospect goes to AAA? I guess we play fill-in-the-blanks in the bullpen until the real arms mature: Burdi, Reed, etc.

 

Milone is a lefty. Does that give him cred over Pelfrey?

 

Hopefully the Twins can move alot of this deadweight somehow somewhere as the season progresses. Any life they can get from the "veterans" should be seen as a sign of tradability, not future hold on a roster spot.

 

If the new guys aren't going to start in the big leagues (because the team MIGHT have a chance to contend in a division that is pretty even across the board, at least on paper), then we should hope that as the one-run victories makes some winners and many losers, we do see at least 4-5-6 members of the 2016/2017 Twins show up...BEFORE AUGUST!

 

[jokin]

 

Does Brayan Villareal have a chance at the roster, or is he going to be a mid-season option to be called up? Well, it's probably gonna be the latter...

 

Wow, our competition for these last roster spots aren't that exciting. It's a lose-lose between Nunez and Herrmann, and old veterans like Shane Robinson and Boyer might make the team.

 

Oh well. If they play poorly, they'll be shown the door quickly and younger guys will be making their way up eventually.

 

You summed things up nicely.  I didn't think this was really going to be a possible scenario back in December. I was fairly certain at the time they were inked, that Robinson and Boyer were actually good insurance Plan B/C options who would either opt out or slip through waivers to Rochester.  I should have known better when they brought back practically everybody eligible for arbitration.  

[Dr. Evil]

I think they are being coy. Build a little value in the vets early and bring some value in trade. Then move a few of em and bring in the prospects. Good business and good for the long term. The roster will look different and the farm more stocked by mid season. Then the second half will be really fun to watch.

[Platoon]

One of the worst 3 teams in MLB 4 years running, and the only competition is for the #5 starter, the backup catcher, some fill in bullpen arms, the all important last spot on the bench, and while some say there is a fight for CF there will probably not be a winner, just a survivor based mostly on contractural issues. And oddly I could live with this, but only if there was some hope of a major overhaul this summer. I can live with the service time arguments if the plan was to accept sucking for half the year, and then blowing it up. But they will not. We still have no "true" number one, two or three hitter. IMHO. If we did, Molitor would not be jerking around with the order like he is. This is one of the oddest run operations I have seen. I am not sure if it makes me sad, or angry. I do know it makes me very frustrated.

[Platoon]

I think they are being coy. Build a little value in the vets early and bring some value in trade. Then move a few of em and bring in the prospects. Good business and good for the long term. The roster will look different and the farm more stocked by mid season. Then the second half will be really fun to watch.

Your post popped up after my post (tirade) I really hope you are right, and I am wrong. No words would be more happily consumed. But I just don't know where the history is for this to happen. Even in the years we contended we never would pull the pin on a deal or acquisition that would put us over the top.

[drock2190]

The 25 roster construction this past four years or so, has been as exciting as a wet fart.

 

 

[gbg]

 

Does Brayan Villareal have a chance at the roster, or is he going to be a mid-season option to be called up? Well, it's probably gonna be the latter...

 

 

He never signed with the Twins, that I've seen, so I doubt either option is likely.

[Shane Wahl]

This bullpen, by the way, is unsustainable. If Stauffer isn't good (as in, is mediocre or worse) then there is likely a big problem. I don't trust Duensing, Thielbar, or Fien to get better. Pelfrey . . . well everyone knows what I think there. I probably would work out a trade to put Graham in AAA right now, *just release* Pelfrey and add Pressly and Oliveros. 

[tobi0040]

I honestly think Rosario makes this team over hicks.