Article: Wednesday Notes From Ft. Myers: A Speedy Loss

[Nick Nelson]

After beating the Baltimore Orioles 10-9 in Sarasota on Tuesday, the Minnesota Twins returned to Hammond Stadium for a home rematch today, losing 3-2 in a contest that featured far fewer fireworks. This was a quick one, finishing in just two hours and 15 minutes.

 

Notes and quotes below:* Ervin Santana's third Grapefruit start didn't go quite as smoothly as the first two, as he allowed three runs on four hits -- including a two-run homer by Jonathan Schoop on a slider that didn't slide much -- but he looked fine. He aggressively threw the ball in the zone and got several swinging misses.

 

* Today was a split-squad day, so the other half of the team was at JetBlue Park facing the Red Sox, and also lost 3-2. It sounds like Mike Pelfrey had a very nice outing over there, allowing one run on three hits over four innings with three strikeouts and no walks.

 

Pelfrey's doing everything needed to keep pace in the fifth starter race. From my view, it's between him and Tommy Milone. If the Twins truly are unwilling to use Pelf in the bullpen, that might be deciding factor, all things being equal.

 

* So, you might ask, what about Alex Meyer and Trevor May? Neither has really done anything to take himself out of the running, but they definitely appear to be trailing in this competition.

 

I get it. It could be argued that Meyer and May are the best two options, especially from a long-term perspective, but they aren't established big-leaguers like Milone and Pelfrey (nor do they have multi-million dollar contracts, for what it's worth). In fact, the Twins actually have some incentive to start the two young hurlers in the minors, as it would extent their service clocks.

 

* Eddie Rosario has been getting plenty of starts in the outfield, and seems to be doing good things everyday. In today's game, he gunned down Delmon Young at second with a strong throw from the left field corner on what initially looked like an easy double.

 

Rosario also drove in the Twins' second run, ripping a liner to the opposite field on a 1-2 count for a sacrifice fly. It was the second consecutive day in which Rosario got a big hit after falling behind, fouling off a few pitches until he got one he could do something with.

 

"He's an aggressive free swinger," said Joe Vavra, who was acting as manager with Paul Molitor across town. "He looks like he's going to be a bad-ball type hitter that's going to make contact … I don't think he's ever out of an at-bat."

 

I can't see him unseating Aaron Hicks (who went 1-for-4 with a triple against the Red Sox) in center field, but Rosario is having a hell of a spring on the heels of an outstanding performance in the Arizona Fall League.

 

* Brian Dozier said one of his main goals here in camp is to build a rapport with Danny Santana.

 

It's becoming increasingly obvious that Santana will be the starting shortstop this season. Last year, he spent most of his time in center field, so the two had little opportunity to mesh up the middle.

 

"I told Danny that we've gotta get to know each other better," Dozier said. "It's not just about making plays, double plays, things like that. It's more the communication, positioning, that kind of thing."

 

Today, however, it was Eduardo Nunez on the other side of the bag, with Santana playing with Molitor and Co. at JetBlue.

 

* Dozier was in the No. 3 spot again today, batting behind Joe Mauer. Molitor has intimated that this might be how things shake out on Opening Day.

 

Dozier said he doesn't care where he hits and doesn't change his approach based on his spot in the lineup, although he obviously will try different things at the plate based on what the game situation dictates.

 

He's sure looking like a three-hitter right now. He hit another double, giving him four extra-base hits in the three games I've watched. Even his outs have been loud -- two of them came on deep outfield liners today.

 

He was unsurprisingly subdued about the big numbers: "Yeah, I've had a little success early, but that is what it is."

 

Sure… but still. I've got to imagine he's wishing the regular season started tomorrow.

 

* Vavra, who was the hitting coach when Dozier first arrived in the majors back in 2012, spoke a little after the game about the second baseman's evolution as a hitter.

 

"He's getting on that high fastball pretty good," Vavra said. "He works really hard on a routine and getting on top of pitches. When he first came up he was hitting the ball in the air too much. So he made a point to really working on getting on top of the ball."

 

"They can beat him up there, but if they don't, he gives it a pretty good ride."

 

* The Twins will face off against the Rays tomorrow in Port Charlotte, with Ricky Nolasco getting the start at 12:05 CT.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

Meyer is a bit told for a pitcher, to be worried about service clocks, imo.

[Twins Twerp]

 

Meyer is a bit told for a pitcher, to be worried about service clocks, imo.

I am going to have to respectfully disagree.  Sure he will be a free agent in his 30's, but why would you trade a month for a full year?  It isn't just bad for business, it is bad baseball.  Sure, he might end up a reliever, or even flame out and be a nobody...but no team in the league starts rookies in April (minus Hicks which really turned out nicely).  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The "service clock" argument for Meyer needs to be retired immediately.

[Mike Sixel]

Y'all don't even want to sign pitchers past 31 or 2....why worry about Meyer and FA past that?

 

I can live with Meyer waiting 12 days......after that, I doubt there's a good reason to keep him down (barring injury, of course). No reason to keep May down now.....

[Seth Stohs]

 

Meyer is a bit told for a pitcher, to be worried about service clocks, imo.

 

In my opinion, that isn't the issue at all. It isn't something that the Twins have typically worried about. Parmelee, Mauer... they've started many players, even pitchers, right on Opening Day. That said, if waiting 2-3 weeks to bring a guy up gives them a 7th season, it's smart.

[Mike Sixel]

 

In my opinion, that isn't the issue at all. It isn't something that the Twins have typically worried about. Parmelee, Mauer... they've started many players, even pitchers, right on Opening Day. That said, if waiting 2-3 weeks to bring a guy up gives them a 7th season, it's smart.

 

I was responding to the article. TR has been clear, that's not an issue for him (I call BS on that on Sano and Buxton, but we'll see). The issue is that a rebuilding team is even considering Pelfrey as a legit option to Meyer and May at this point in the rebuild, imo. Others may disagree, I'm cool with that. I'm not trying to change anyone's mind.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Didn't realize it was only a couple weeks. At this point, why not. I do think the Twins would have been better off calling him up last year, even after his innings limit, even to just ride with the team.

[jimmer]

 

I was responding to the article. TR has been clear, that's not an issue for him (I call BS on that on Sano and Buxton, but we'll see). The issue is that a rebuilding team is even considering Pelfrey as a legit option to Meyer and May at this point in the rebuild, imo. Others may disagree, I'm cool with that. I'm not trying to change anyone's mind.

No even slightly intelligent GM is going to tell his fans or the players that they take service clock into consideration when deciding on opening day roster. Means zip.

 

He's 'been clear' about a lot of things during his GM time.

Edited March 18, 2015 by jimmer

[jokin]

 

I was responding to the article. TR has been clear, that's not an issue for him (I call BS on that on Sano and Buxton, but we'll see). The issue is that a rebuilding team is even considering Pelfrey as a legit option to Meyer and May at this point in the rebuild, imo. Others may disagree, I'm cool with that. I'm not trying to change anyone's mind.

 

The deciding factor might ultimately be that Milone has one remaining option.  It now seems destined that Pelfrey, the guy we least expected (I never thought Stauffer was under serious consideration) to get that last spot, is on the inside track to being the winner of the SP#5 Derby.  Milone with that option might make better trade bait anyway.  The decks are going to have to be cleared, something has to give, it's just a matter of when.... I fully expect Berrios by mid-year to add himself to the M&M boys and become yet another arm worthy of a trial run in the rotation.

Edited March 18, 2015 by jokin

[jimmer]

 

The deciding factor might ultimately be that Milone has one remaining option.  It now seems destined that the guy we least expected (I never thought Stauffer was under serious consideration) to get that last spot, is on the inside track to being the winner of the SP#5 Derby.  Milone with that option might make better trade bait anyway.  The decks are going to have to be cleared, something has to give, it's just a matter of when.... I fully expect Berrios by mid-year to add himself to the M&M boys and become yet another arm worthy of a trail run in the rotation.

Think we can find another team to fall in love with his career ERA? :-)

[jokin]

 

Didn't realize it was only a couple weeks. At this point, why not. I do think the Twins would have been better off calling him up last year, even after his innings limit, even to just ride with the team.

 

The evidence indicates that the Twins had one specific plan for Meyer in 2014, and were never going to deviate from it

[jokin]

 

Think we can find another team to fall in love with his career ERA? :-)

 

You won't get much, to be sure.  But assuming he's healthy and performing within career parameters, LH with an option remaining will represent some value to some teams looking for a 5th starter alternative.

[Nick Nelson]

Service clock is not the main reason for keeping Meyer down. Milone and Pelfrey have both pitched well. It's just a piece of the puzzle. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

You won't get much, to be sure.  But assuming he's healthy and performing within career parameters, LH with an option remaining will represent some value to some teams looking for a 5th starter alternative.

 

Also, it's not like we gave up anything to get him.  Sam Fuld is the definition of a replacement player.  Milone as starting pitching depth in AAA or a sweetener in a trade sounds fine to me.  He has value, just not tons of value.

 

The real key to me is, assuming relative health and effectiveness for the Twins starters, whether TR will be willing to deal starting pitching (Nolasco, Santana even Gibson) at the deadline if Mays, Meyer and Berrios are all pitching well and warrant calling up.

[Dantes929]

I am still hoping it is May with Meyer the first one called up.    Milone and Pelfrey would play just fine in the pen.   I may be overreacting to the poor performance thus far of Stauffer and Hamburger.   May and Meyer have pitched very little so far. so have not had much opportunity to show anything.    18 more days.   Still time for things to shake out.    

Forget the development factor of HIcks for a moment.  Anyone else comfortable with the idea of Schaeffer/Hicks platoon in center to start the year with Rosario called up if they blow.     Probably the best short term solution would be Hicks/Rosario platoon.but I am actually more keen on the long term development of Rosario than I am of Hicks.

[Thrylos]

 

.The real key to me is, assuming relative health and effectiveness for the Twins starters, whether TR will be willing to deal starting pitching (Nolasco, Santana even Gibson) at the deadline if Mays, Meyer and Berrios are all pitching well and warrant calling up.

 

Would you say that if the Twins are, let's say, 10 games above .500 at the deadline?

 

It is all relative.

[jokin]

 

Service clock is not the main reason for keeping Meyer down. Milone and Pelfrey have both pitched well. It's just a piece of the puzzle. 

 

I am still hoping it is May with Meyer the first one called up.    Milone and Pelfrey would play just fine in the pen.   I may be overreacting to the poor performance thus far of Stauffer and Hamburger.   May and Meyer have pitched very little so far. so have not had much opportunity to show anything.    18 more days.   Still time for things to shake out.    

 

 

Think back to Gibson one year ago.  Unlike this year, he was given a "real chance" to win a spot- and he seized it.   It just seems pre-ordained that the M&M boys are opening up again in Roc, with perhaps even the other "M", Milone, accompanying them, or with one or both vets going north, with one in long relief. 

 

Nick- Have you heard any whispers to just this scenario?  Or is there a chance of a post-April 1st trade to clear the SP backlog a little bit?

Edited March 18, 2015 by jokin

[jokin]

 

 

Forget the development factor of HIcks for a moment.  Anyone else comfortable with the idea of Schaeffer/Hicks platoon in center to start the year with Rosario called up if they blow.     Probably the best short term solution would be Hicks/Rosario platoon.but I am actually more keen on the long term development of Rosario than I am of Hicks.

 

Of all the options, it sure seems to me that a Hicks/Schafer position-share would yield the optimum plate production to start out the season.  If Rosario is raking after more than 100 PAs in AA or AAA, it could offer the perfect opportunity to call Rosario up if the platoon is under-producing.  I am not in favor of platooning Rosario at this point.

 

But I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to the option that no one is really discussing-   Schafer and Robinson starting out with the Twins (not necessarily in a strict platoon)- with Hicks in AAA and Rosario in AA.  You lose some plate production at the outset of the season, but the OF defense is solidified with Robinson in late innings, and with this move, you set the bar pretty squarely for each player to leap over, especially with Hicks and Rosario getting 4-6 PAs on a daily basis.

Edited March 18, 2015 by jokin

[Jham]

I still feel that a team with Santana in center and Escobar at short beats a team with Santana at short and Hicks/Schaefer/Robinson in center, but apparently that ship has sailed.  Seems to me that for all the people who thought Moliter was not a FO "yes-man" he's going with the line-up the front office asked for (that Gardy fought before his firing).  

 

May got started late this spring.  Meyer was on an innings limit last year and ended his season early.  I do not think it would be the end of the world to have them each start in AAA.  I'm much more concerned with the two of them finishing the year with the team than starting it.  I for one, am not ready to give up on this team being able to compete in this division.  We went worst to first in 1991 with a team not necessarily more talented than this team (going into that year).  I don't think it's helpful to decide before a season that we are in "rebuild mode" after several prior years of rebuilding.  We developed Plouffe, Dozier, Escobar,  and Gibson, all of whom should be in their primes.  Mauer may already be on the decline.  We've let young players like Hicks, Santana, and Arcia take their lumps for a season and sifted out the Parmalees, Florimons, Hendriks, and Bensons.  It's time for this team to start winning.

[Dantes929]

 

I still feel that a team with Santana in center and Escobar at short beats a team with Santana at short and Hicks/Schaefer/Robinson in center, but apparently that ship has sailed.  Seems to me that for all the people who thought Moliter was not a FO "yes-man" he's going with the line-up the front office asked for (that Gardy fought before his firing).  

 

May got started late this spring.  Meyer was on an innings limit last year and ended his season early.  I do not think it would be the end of the world to have them each start in AAA.  I'm much more concerned with the two of them finishing the year with the team than starting it.  I for one, am not ready to give up on this team being able to compete in this division.  We went worst to first in 1991 with a team not necessarily more talented than this team (going into that year).  I don't think it's helpful to decide before a season that we are in "rebuild mode" after several prior years of rebuilding.  We developed Plouffe, Dozier, Escobar,  and Gibson, all of whom should be in their primes.  Mauer may already be on the decline.  We've let young players like Hicks, Santana, and Arcia take their lumps for a season and sifted out the Parmalees, Florimons, Hendriks, and Bensons.  It's time for this team to start winning.

You are right about patience of course concerning who starts where.   I would never give up on a team before the season and this one might be a fun one if things break right.   There are no guarantees in baseball and no crying either.   I would compare it more to the 87 Twins perhaps. talent wise but get your point.   

[Jham]

 

You are right about patience of course concerning who starts where.   I would never give up on a team before the season and this one might be a fun one if things break right.   There are no guarantees in baseball and no crying either.   I would compare it more to the 87 Twins perhaps. talent wise but get your point.   

 

I compared to 91 because of the last to first angle.  Morris had a career year.  Erickson emerged.  Knoblauch was rookie of the year.  Mack had a career year.  Chili Davis was an animal as a switch hitting DH.  It would be interesting to go position by position with that team actually... The 87 team won fewer games, but had a Cy winner Viola, and a HOFer in Blylevin at the front of the rotation along with Gaetti, Hrbek, Puckett, Smallie, and Gagne all in their respective primes.  

[Paul Pleiss]

I think the Twins should leave Meyer and May in AAA for the next six seasons. Bring them up at or after age 30, really leverage that team control until they've lost their value. That's probably the best move. Keep them waiting.

 

Just bring them up. Service time on these guys shouldn't be an issue. They both need to see MLB hitters. And I think they both will in 2015... but likely not starting on opening day, which is sad.

[highlander]

My only criteria for making the big club is that each player earned their roster spot. If Pelfrey is in the rotation so be it. I think this team is going to surprise MLB in a good way this year. Wasn't sure what to think of Rosario but he is growing on me. It's nice to have options if something isn't working. At least the cupboard is STOCKED and not bare.

 

I look for Mauer to hit .300 again, nice out of the two hole. Dozier just keeps chugging along, nice option in the three hole. Then the big sticks Plouffe, Arcia, Vargas, and Hunter, any order 4,5,6, and 7. Three run flies win alot of games. Suzuki and Hicks/Schaeffer/Rosario bring up the tail end.

 

Our rotation looks to match up with most. Hughes looks like he wants to be a Radke #1. Sweet touch last year eschewing a LARGE bonus, not on same scale as Teddy Ballgame playing both games of a double header to hit .400 but, same principle i.e. LEADERSHIP. Santana is a salty arm and Gibson is showing the makeup of a wily veteran. If Nolasco can return to form......

 

That leaves the bull pen. It's nice to know you have a quality closer, which IMHO Perkins is. Everyday Ed needs to clone himself 3or 4 times and we will be OK!

[ThejacKmp]

 

Would you say that if the Twins are, let's say, 10 games above .500 at the deadline?

 

It is all relative.

 

Depends how the boys in AAA are pitching.  If they can get something for a now-effective Nolasco or Pelfrey and open up a spot for Meyers/May/Berrios I think you have to be proactive and deal from a position of strength, no matter your record.  It's like how Warren Buffet still makes investments rather than sitting on his laurels and wealth - you've got to make a trade because it makes sense, not because you're in a given position.  A lot of bad trades happen because a team feels they HAVE to make a deal and a lot of opportunities are lost because a team is afraid to sell high (see Willinghammer, Josh).

 

I'm hoping that Pelfrey beats out Milone for the 5th starter spot and its not because I love me some Mike Pelfrey, it's because if Pelfrey can string it together for a few months we can get something back for him.  If Milone pitches well, the Twins likely keep him.  One of my biggest concerns (and I understand its not a bad concern to have) is that the Twins free agent starting pitching signings, while welcome, have really blocked off development for the top-end pitching prospects.  I'm hoping they're going to have to figure out a way around that.  Trade Nolasco for pennies on the dollar?  Trade Santana?  Sell high on Gibson?  Sell super high on Hughes?  Lots of ways to do it, none of them easy decisions.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I still feel that a team with Santana in center and Escobar at short beats a team with Santana at short and Hicks/Schaefer/Robinson in center, but apparently that ship has sailed.  Seems to me that for all the people who thought Moliter was not a FO "yes-man" he's going with the line-up the front office asked for (that Gardy fought before his firing).  

 

 

In 2015, probably. But in 2016, a team with a MLB-experienced Santana at SS and Buxton in center probably beats a team with a non-MLB-experienced Santana at SS and Buxton in center. And the chances of contending in 2016 (and 2017) are much higher than in 2015. That's what Molitor, correctly, sees. I think the Twins will be decent this year, exceed expectations, and maybe even get close to .500, but making the playofffs in 2016 and 2017 is just way more important than getting a couple games closer to .500 this year. That's how I see it, anyway, and I think that is how Molitor sees it.

[bird]

 

Would you say that if the Twins are, let's say, 10 games above .500 at the deadline?

 

It is all relative.

 

It's a great question, and I like Mr. Kemp's answer. I would always be a seller, and especially at the deadline, when teams feel some desperation, regardless of my own record, the caveats being:

 

1. Will my replacement, within a window of less than a year, be a better performer than the player being dangled out there? And do I have two replacement candidates like this?

 

2. The buyer must be willing to overpay.

 

3. Untouchables are limited to future HOF types and players who the fans adore, and to a much lesser extent, guys who help via those nebulous intangibles.

 

4. My bias is for acquiring lower level prospects.

 

Edited March 19, 2015 by birdwatcher

[Thrylos]

 

I still feel that a team with Santana in center and Escobar at short beats a team with Santana at short and Hicks/Schaefer/Robinson in center, but apparently that ship has sailed. 

 

Are you sure that a team with Rosario at CF and Escobar at SS, does not beat them both?  Santana is not that great fielding SS and is a worse Centerfielder, and Rosario is better with the bat than him. 

[Thrylos]

 

It's a great question, and I like Mr. Kemp's answer. I would always be a seller, and especially at the deadline, when teams feel some desperation, regardless of my own record, the caveats being:

 

1. Will my replacement, within a window of less than a year, be a better performer than the player being dangled out there? And do I have two replacement candidates like this?

 

2. The buyer must be willing to overpay.

 

3. Untouchables are limited to future HOF types and players who the fans adore, and to a much lesser extent, guys who help via those nebulous intangibles.

 

4. My bias is for acquiring lower level prospects.

 

I agree for selling high, but if you are competing the goal of deadline trades should be:

 

1. make the MLB team better now with the trade

2. do not screw up the future with the trade.

3. sell players at the peak of their values (could be major leaguers or prospects) and when their perceived value is higher than their actual value.

 

Players that fulfill #3 above are: Dozier, D. Santana, K Suzuki, T. Plouffe, G. Perkins, P. Hughes, C. Fien, K. Thielbar, N. Gordon, B. Buxton, K. Stewart, J. Berrios. and a few more possibly. All I am saying is that I believe that the aforementioned have higher perceived value than actual value.   If you can fill up holes and close those from the inside (eg. replace Hughes with Meyer, Perkins with Burdi, Dozier with Polanco etc,) you should go ahead and trade.  But you got to trade value.  You cannot package someone with low perceived value, like Nolasco, because a. you are selling low and b. the actual value that you get will be equally low.  Think Pierczynski trade:  Sell high, target players with lower perceived values than actual values.  But hard to trade all the players who have banners above the Hammond Stadium ticket office (minus Mauer.)

[nytwinsfan]

 

Are you sure that a team with Rosario at CF and Escobar at SS, does not beat them both?  Santana is not that great fielding SS and is a worse Centerfielder, and Rosario is better with the bat than him. 

Reports of Santana's defense that I've seen are that he has the tools (quickness, hands, arm) to be a solid defender, but makes too many errors. And his defense so far this spring has gotten glowing reviews.  He probably has the higher long-term upside with the bat compared to Escobar, so let's see if he can stick at SS.  I'm totally with you on playing Rosario in CF though. At least platoon him with Hicks. Either DFA Nunez (having Rosario be the secondary back-up infielder) or DFA Schafer.

Edited March 19, 2015 by nytwinsfan