Article: What If The Twins Drafted Mark Prior?

[Kyle Eliason]

I wish I had written this story earlier, when public opinion towards Joe Mauer was more favorable than it is presently. Some of the hot takes regarding Mauer’s (perceived) lack of toughness have been poorly reasoned and while Mauer has not provided good value relative to his salary in recent seasons, given the way the collective bargaining agreement shapes Major League Baseball’s labor market, few veterans talented and skilled enough to command long-term deals upon reaching free agency in the modern game do.The argument I will advance is that the Twins would have been better off passing on Mauer to draft Mark Prior first overall in the 2001 amateur draft. This argument is built upon two main ideas: First, that winning the World Series should be the ultimate goal for a major league franchise and second, that drafting Prior over Mauer would have maximized the Twins chances of winning a third World Series over the period of time from the 2001 amateur draft to the present day.

 

With regard to the first idea, it is said that flags fly forever and thus, it is in a club’s best interest to maximize its odds of winning a World Series over any given period of time by mortgaging either the present or future if needed, dependent upon how close a club is to championship caliber at any given time. As former Twins general manager Andy MacPhail—who presided over the club when it won its two championships in 1987 and 1991—has been credited with saying, there is no point in chasing third place. This is presented as a given for the purpose of this article.

 

What then follows is an attempt to support the second idea. To spell things out plainly before proceeding any further, the argument being made is not that Prior was, is or will be regarded as a better player than Mauer. Only that drafting Prior over Mauer would have improved Minnesota’s chances of winning a third World Series between the years of 2001 to 2014.

 

2002 and 2003

 

Perhaps the lone irrefutable point in favor of drafting Prior over Mauer improving the Twins’ chances of winning a third World Series is the impact it would have had on the 2002 and 2003 seasons. Prior entered the 2001 amateur draft during his junior season at the University of Southern California. He was considered the most major league-ready prospect in his draft class and won the Golden Spikes Award—college baseball’s equivalent of the Heisman Trophy. Conversely, Mauer—the top-rated high school prospect in the country—took longer to reach the major leagues. As Prior debuted during the 2002 season and Mauer did not play in his first major league game until 2004, it cannot be reasonably argued that drafting Prior would not have made the Twins a better team in 2002 and 2003.

 

Fairness requires mention that Prior cost the Cubs over twice as much to sign as Mauer did the Twins—$10.5 versus $5.15 million—but when placed in context with the total amount of money the Twins have committed to Mauer since the 2001 draft—$126.025 million with another $92 million owed over the next four seasons—that initial $5.35 million difference is rather negligible. Also, Prior would have occupied a roster spot, so that $5.35M can be weighed against the salary of any player Prior would have kept off the Twins’ payroll in the aforementioned two seasons.

 

In 2002 the Twins began the season with Rick Reed, Kyle Lohse, Eric Milton, Brad Radke and Joe Mays in their rotation with Santana joining from the bullpen later, so Prior would likely not have had a subtractive effect on the Twins payroll if he had debuted midseason. However, it is doubtful the Twins would have signed Kenny Rodgers for $2 million before the start of the 2003 campaign with Prior already on their major league roster, which reduces Prior’s theoretical net cost a small amount.

 

What is particularly important about the 2002 and 2003 seasons is that Minnesota reached the playoffs in both without either Mauer or Prior on their roster, so the addition of Prior would have further strengthened the Twins’ chances those two years. Using ERA+ as a rough guide to place Prior’s performance in context as ERA+ attempts to control for league and ballpark, here is how Prior compared to the rest of the Twins’ rotation those two seasons.

 

http://i.imgur.com/WBLb56j.png

While each made only a half-season’s worth of starts, K/9, FIP and ERA+ make it clear that Santana and Prior were on a different level than the rest of the Twins’ rotation in 2002.

 

http://i.imgur.com/KCgpCgy.png

Note: Eric Milton’s injury-shortened season is presented at the bottom of the table due to a 17 inning sample size.

In 2003 Prior elevated himself above even Santana, achieving a lower ERA and FIP along with a higher K/9 and ERA+ despite pitching more innings without the benefit of bullpen work positively skewing his rate statistics. Consulting Fangraphs, Prior was second only to Pedro Martinez among major league starters with 7.5 wins above replacement. Kenny Rodgers, who presumably would not have been signed had the Twins drafted Prior, was worth 3.1 wins above replacement.

 

Moving beyond regular season statistics, there is research that suggests adding a second pitcher who struck out more than a batter per inning would have improved the Twins’ chances of winning in the postseason, specifically. Baseball Prospectus found (and published in its 2006 book Baseball Between the Numbers) that closer performance, strike out rate and defensive efficiency were three key measures that correlated with success in the playoffs.

 

This is fairly intuitive with respect to starting pitchers; playoff teams in any given season typically have above average lineups as compared to the major leagues as a whole, so the ability to miss bats has value in that it prevents batters from above average lineups from putting the ball in play. In 2002 and 2003, both Prior and Santana had K/9 rates of 9.6 or higher while no other Twins starting pitcher managed better than a 6.4 in either season.

 

Buying a cautioned, qualified ticket to small sample-size theater, here is a quick look at how the aforementioned starters performed in the postseason for the relevant pair of years.

 

http://i.imgur.com/BIHqO6Q.png

Note: Santana was squandered by manager Ron Gardenhire during the 2002 postseason and pitched out of the bullpen, hence only two starts in eight appearances.

Once again Prior’s performance compares favorably with the Twins’ starters. Prior’s statistics above come only from the 2003 season. Had Alex Gonzalez been able to

—

—Prior would have likely recorded a third win and gotten at least one additional start.

 

The Twins posted a combined 5-9 postseason record in 2002 and 2003 and won their only postseason series of the Gardenhire era—the 2002 divisional series against Oakland. In the years since, with Mauer on its major league roster, Minnesota has won just one of 13 games in the postseason. Thus, the strongest and least speculative point in favor of drafting Prior over Mauer is that it would have strengthened the Twins’ chances of winning a World Series over the two-year period in which they won more postseason games than in the following 11 years combined.

 

The Increasingly Speculative 2004 and Beyond

 

It is possible that had he been drafted by the Twins, Mark Prior may have avoided the injury woes that derailed his career, as the Twins were relatively conservative with pitch counts under Ron Gardenhire’s stewardship.

 

Conversely, Dusty Baker—Prior’s manager in Chicago—earned a reputation for working his starting pitchers quite heavily. In the 2003 season the Cubs led baseball with 29 instances where their starting pitcher threw 120 pitches or more, of which Prior accounted for seven in what was his first full year in the major leagues. It is impossible to accurately quantify the effect those high pitch counts had. However fairly or unfairly, Baker is commonly assigned some blame for the injuries sustained by charges like Jason Schmidt, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood among others. It bears mention that Baker eased the workload of his starting pitchers as his career went on and fell below the league average for the number of 120-plus pitch starts per season during his tenure with the Cincinnati Reds.

 

It is within the realm of possibility, had his workload been better managed by a more conservative brass in Minnesota, that Prior would have had a longer and more productive career, helping the Twins in an alternate reality in 2004 and beyond.

 

Another highly speculative argument in favor of drafting Prior would be that the Twins would have either cut bait with him after his injury woes, or been more open to trading a healthy Prior as opposed to paying market rate on a contract extension for a front-line starting pitcher nearing free agency—as the club did when it sent Johan Santana to the Mets in his final season before hitting the open market.

 

The Twins were painted into a corner by the timing of the opening of Target Field and Joe Mauer’s impending free agency. The club wanted taxpayers to pick up a majority of the tab for their new $545 million ballpark, and argued that the revenue that would be generated by such a facility was essential to remain competitive in baseball’s modern environment.

 

Had they then turned around and dealt the face of their franchise, recent American League Most Valuable Player and—perhaps most important—native son Joe Mauer, to avoid signing him to a large contract extension, the public relations hit would have been colossal. Perhaps it would have been easier to flip Prior for prospects—if he was still performing and on the roster—as was the case with Santana. Had that happened, the Twins would have been able to differently allocate $23 million worth of payroll per season from 2011-to-2018.

 

Where the Twins would have suffered in this alternate reality is in missing out on fleecing Giants general manager Brian Sabean. Had the Twins drafted Prior, they would not have needed to deal A.J. Pierzynski to make room for Mauer in the starting lineup. In turn, they would not have acquired Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano or Joe Nathan prior to the start of the 2004 season. Bonser was no great shakes and later begat minor leaguer Chirs Province who failed to reach the major leagues. Lirano pitched brilliantly at times and later begat Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez. Joe Nathan was the best closer not named Mariano Rivera in baseball in the aughts, became the Twins’ all-time saves leader and left as a free agent after eight years.

 

The above almost certainly represents more value than retaining Pierzynski would have provided. Thus—in addition to not having Mauer around for his spectacular peak years—the Twins would have almost surely been worse off from 2004 to 2009. Having conceded that, the Twins did not win a single playoff series during that time, so it would not have reduced the number of championships the club won.

 

Conclusion

 

Based on the benefit of hindsight unavailable to anyone during the Twins’ preparation for the 2001 amateur draft and large amounts of speculation, I hope I have at least swayed a few people into entertaining the idea that it would have been in the Twins’ best interests to draft Mark Prior first overall in 2001, despite the disappointing way his career stalled and ended. In essence—knowing everything we do now—it would have been better for the Twins to bet all their chips on 2002 and 2003. To roll the dice that nobody in baseball would have wanted to face the 2002 and 2003 versions of Johan Santana and Mark Prior a combined four times in a seven-game playoff series. That either the 2002 or 2003 Twins could have been the American League version of the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks.

 

Shameless Plug

 

If you enjoyed this article, you can check out more of my work over at MinnCentric’s new soccer siteNorthern Pitch as well as follow us on Twitter and Facebook. You can find a list of our impressive staff of writers here. We hope you will join us for coverage of what will be an exciting year for soccer in Minnesota as Minnesota United have made a number of notable signings in the offseason and look to be the preseason favorites to win the North American Soccer League, and Minneapolis has been named as one of the two finalists for the next Major League Soccer expansion franchise.

 

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[Paul Pleiss]

Some good comment discussion started on the original blog post HERE

[KGB]

Interesting thought, I remember this discussion after the draft when the Twins were in the playoffs.

 

You can't regret the drafting of Mauer considering his career and the resulting AJ trade which worked out great. But 0-9 during Mauer playoff career, it does make you think- What if?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't think Prior would have been the difference between playoffs and a world series... Just my 2 cents. Mauer has a chance of being an HOF player. The real question is whether the Twins could have kept Prior healthy. I think that's a fair thing to speculate on as Baker ran Prior and Wood into the ground.

[hybridbear]

Great article. Really makes you think...

[USAFChief]

Concur...great article.

[70charger]

Too much speculation for my taste. Not to mention that I find it difficult to think that Prior would have been the tipping point between losing the ALCS in 2002 and washing out in the ALDS in 2003, and winning a World Series. There's an absolutely enormous gap there; one that I don't think is filled by a single pitcher. And we shouldn't be playing for third, right?

[prouster]

Long time reader, first time poster:

 

If I remember correctly, the Twins drafted Mauer because Prior made it very clear he wouldn't sign with Minnesota. Drafting Prior wouldn't have provided any benefit, and perhaps would have set back the organization.

 

And I don't think we should put too much blame on Mauer for the poor playoff record--bad pitching did us in, as well as half the batting order turning into whiff factories (Kubel for instance). But you're essentially stating that Mauer is the reason for the miserable play in the Twins' recent playoff appearances. According to Baseball Reference, he slashed .182/.250/.432 in the 2006 ALDS, which was bad (only Punto and Jason Tyner were worse). In the 2009 ALDS, he slashed .417/.500/.500 (only Punto was better). Then in 2010, he slashed .250/.308/.250 (Thome, Hardy, and Kubel were worse). Of course, Mauer's career playoff slash line of .286/.359/.250 only comes in 39 plate appearances, hardly enough to draw any meaningful conclusions. Mauer has helped the team in the playoffs, and he has hurt the team. The reasons for their awful performances in October have to do with far more people than just Mauer.

 

Personally, I don't see how anyone could argue that there was a better option than Mauer in that draft. He's made a very strong case for himself as the greatest hitting catcher of all time, and with maybe two or three more 2 WAR seasons, which is very very attainable for a player of his caliber, I think he'll be a lock for the Hall of Fame.

[USAFChief]

One also has to wonder if we would have even made the playoffs in some of those seasons without Mauer to begin with.

One doesn't have to wonder about 2002 and 2003.

[jimmer]

One doesn't have to wonder about 2002 and 2003.

yeah, but we were talking about the Twins post-season record with Mauer on the team, no? 

[Dantes929]

OK, there may be some correlation with strikeout rates and postseason success but I would like to point out that Viola led the 87 team with a strikeout rate roughly equivalent to Kevin Slowey.    The best way to succeed in the playoffs is to make the playoffs.   Citing 1-12 with Mauer is hindsight.   Just because they went 1-12 doesn't mean the odds were they go 1-12.     I am sure if you spent enough time on it you could come up with an argument for drafting someone else instead of Morneau or Hunter or just about anyone else.  .   Chicago could probably make a case for how getting Mauer instead of Prior would have led to a handful of championships for them.

 

Mauer was a huge part of three of the most exciting division finishes in baseball history (1st place in the division, not 3rd place) and can hardly be blamed for not winning the division any of the last 4 seasons so I am not going to spend too much time on alternative universes. . 

 

Lastly, I have read over and over again (ok, mostly on the strib pages)  about how terrible Gardy was as a manager and how he was responsible for the poor playoff showings.    Kind of hypocritical for anyone who has ever agreed with the idea that he was responsible for those results to agree with this analysis.   Either he wasn't responsible for those losses or its reasonable to expect that he would have botched it up with Prior as well.   

[USAFChief]

yeah, but we were talking about the Twins post-season record with Mauer on the team, no?

 

Not in the post you responded to.

[maxisagod]

Long time reader, first time poster:

 

If I remember correctly, the Twins drafted Mauer because Prior made it very clear he wouldn't sign with Minnesota. Drafting Prior wouldn't have provided any benefit, and perhaps would have set back the organization.

 

 

So maybe Kyle should have been comparing the comp pick the Twins would have gotten in 2002 for not signing Prior, Bryan Bullington or B.J. Upton. Though then Kyle REALLY would have wished he'd have written this story earlier. The Twins didn't have the best track recorded at signing 1st round draft picks, so yeah it shouldn't be a given that he signed. Also, would the Twins have promoted Prior as fast as the Cubs did? They did have a lot of guys filling up those roster spots that we're either low cost and pitching good or slightly unmovable. I don't think Prior in the rotation in 2002 would be a given and worry due to Santana issues breaking the rotation, Santana might have been the one left out of the rotation when Prior gets a spot and Jonah might have missed his best years, hanging out in the bullpen.  

Edited March 11, 2015 by maxisagod

[Lakeside]

During the time in question I had a couple of good friends at the top of the Twins organization.  While I know that Prior was considered, what this article fails to tell you is that Prior was really not an option.  He had let the Twins organization know that he would not sign with Minnesota if selected. . . While I've been told that they would have taken Mauer anyway Prior's stance certainly had some bearing on the issue. . . . Hindsight can be 20/20, but I think the choice of Joe Mauer at the time was excellent. . . He is, even with his issues, probably the greatest hitting catcher, for average, of all time.

[jimmer]

Not in the post you responded to.

ok

[jimmer]

One also has to wonder if we would have even made the playoffs in some of those seasons without Mauer to begin with.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If I remember correctly, the Twins drafted Mauer because Prior made it very clear he wouldn't sign with Minnesota. Drafting Prior wouldn't have provided any benefit, and perhaps would have set back the organization.

I suspect Prior's reason for dismissing the Twins was that the Twins were not going to offer an amateur a contract close to what he got from the Cubs.

The article assumes the Twins ponied up the necessary dough.

[Otto von Ballpark]

OK, there may be some correlation with strikeout rates and postseason success but I would like to point out that Viola led the 87 team with a strikeout rate roughly equivalent to Kevin Slowey.

You need an era adjustment, my friend. Viola was notably above league K/9 in 1987, versus Slowey who was generally average or below (slightly above average in his abbreviated 2009).

 

Plus peak Kevin Slowey might have been useful in the playoffs had he ever been healthy for them. Probably more effective than, say, low-K Carlos Silva.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Prior draft in 2001 also suggests that maybe we don't trade for Rick Reed shortly thereafter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, would the Twins have promoted Prior as fast as the Cubs did? They did have a lot of guys filling up those roster spots that we're either low cost and pitching good or slightly unmovable. I don't think Prior in the rotation in 2002 would be a given and worry due to Santana issues breaking the rotation, Santana might have been the one left out of the rotation when Prior gets a spot and Jonah might have missed his best years, hanging out in the bullpen.

The Twins promoted Adam Johnson on a similar timeline as the Cubs did Prior.

 

Also note that the author suggest with Prior we don't sign Kenny Rogers. That alone suggests Santana's rotation move would not have been affected much by the addition of Prior. (And I made a similar suggestion about Rick Reed.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

On the other hand, we don't get to fleece the Giants in the AJ trade. Could change the timing/parameters of the Milton deal too.

[Dantes929]

Its pretty much a lock that without Mauer the Twins do not win the division in 2006 and 2009 or get to game 163 in 08.     I also believe that the Twins had a chance in the playoffs even though the record ended up being dismal.    KC taught us that the difference between going 0-1 in the playoffs and 11-4 might be as little as the other team making a wild pitch in the wrong spot.    Twins with a save or two from Nathan might have a much different playoff history in the 2000's. 

I know my take might be different than others but I thoroughly enjoyed those 9 years where the Twins won 6 division titles and another game 163.    They may have had small chance of winning but it was at least as good as the 87 team.    If guaranteed a WS in 02 to go along with a guarantee the next 8 seasons would be .500 records I would pass.   

[KGB]

 

If guaranteed a WS in 02 to go along with a guarantee the next 8 seasons would be .500 records I would pass.

 

Not me, give me a World Series ring once every 10 years and I don't care what you do the other 9 years.

 

Also a long time Viking fan, so after 40 years I'd be willing to settle for a Super Bowl loss

[jimmer]

I care way more about the 162 (or 163) game season than I do about a post-season tournament. Obviously, I'd love it if my team won a W series once in awhile, but overall, it's about the season for me.  

[Dantes929]

 

I care way more about the 162 (or 163) game season than I do about a post-season tournament. Obviously, I'd love it if my team won a W series once in awhile, but overall, it's about the season for me.  

I've always liked the underdog and am more a journey than destination guy.   Guarantee anything in sports and I probably won't bother watching.   Give me 6 seasons of 1 in 10 chance over 1 season of overwhelming favorites anytime.   Like I said, others may have a different take.   I loved 87 and 91 but I think I hated 1971- 1982 and 1995-2000 more.   

[jimmer]

The only good thing about '95-'01 was if I bought cheap seat tickets we could be down behind the plate around the 3rd inning :-)

Edited March 11, 2015 by jimmer

[gunnarthor]

It's an interesting article and it was actually what Souhan argued for at the time.  But I disagree.  Mauer is probably going to the HOF so it's pretty hard to argue that the Twins made the wrong choice (one could also point out that David Wright was available too).  I don't think it's likely that Prior would have stayed healthy and Baker's impact on him is overstated - even during the draft there were rumors that some scouts hated Prior's mechanics.  (And isn't that what this article is actually suggesting - do everything you can to win in 02 and 03?  Dusty rode his ace).

 

The only way Prior comes up on top of Mauer is if both of these things happen - 1) he stays healthy (and the number of pitchers with a few great seasons and then hurt is very, very long) and 2) and he continued to pitch at a HOF level.  I don't think it's fair to say that a WS ring in 03 would have made it worth it.  

[D. Hocking]

Probably cost us a Super Bowl.  Mauer, not getting drafted by the Twins, would have decided to do the Florida State route; the Vikings would have managed to trade for  him when they decided to finally pull the plug on T-Jack; no late game interception by Favre in the Saints game; and then an overtime Super Bowl victory two weeks later.

[USAFChief]

I dont read the article as "the Twins made the wrong choice." I read it as an interesting thought exercise. .."what if they made a different choice?"

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Probably cost us a Super Bowl.  Mauer, not getting drafted by the Twins, would have decided to do the Florida State route; the Vikings would have managed to trade for  him when they decided to finally pull the plug on T-Jack; no late game interception by Favre in the Saints game; and then an overtime Super Bowl victory two weeks later.

 

and I think Mauer throws for 380 yards in that game