Article: Three Things the Twins Need to Do to Compete: Part One: Fix the Pen

[Zephrin]

So, slightly off topic.  But one of your initial premises is:

 

"Breaking ties with Gardernhire, Anderson, Ulger and Steinbrenner (even though they did not go far enough in my opinion, but this is another matter) is the equivalent of starting the seasons with, at least, plus five wins."

 

While I agree that it was probably time for change, subjective criticism on Gardenhire has always been that he is an above average manager.  This has been upheld (to the degree possible anyway) objectively using some fairly well reasoned stats at places like http://darowski.com/hall-of-wwar/expectancy/ 

 

There are many signs that point to better things for the Twins this year and into the future, but I don't think the rookie manager is going to be worth 5 more wins than Gardenhire was. 

[jorgenswest]

I think you're being a little too hard on Fien. In terms of SIERA, SwStr% and FBv he was only negligibly below average, and Fangraphs is projecting him to have 22.2 K% in 2015. Now, if he's your 8th-inning guy, that's not a good bullpen. But it certainly doesn't hurt to have an essentially league-average arm get a spot somewhere. It's the significantly below-average guys that we want to avoid. And I think May is more valuable as a starter.

 

Do you have separate stats on LHPs? I wonder if their average FBv might be a bit lower.

Fien has a very high fly ball rate at 49%. He needs a strikeout rate closer to 30% or at least north of 25% to be effective with that fly ball rate. Unless he has a role where he comes in with no one on base, he is a disaster waiting to happen from the pen.

 

His strikeout rate dropped from 29.9 to 19.6 last year and it wasn't just the end of the year. It was around 20 all year. He needs to be closer to his 2013 rate than his 2014 to be a useful reliever.

[jorgenswest]

I hope the entire bullpen outside of Perkins are fighting for a job. I hope the Twins are willing to let Duensing and Stauffer go as soon as a younger player shows they are ready. If that is opening day, so much the better for the Twins.

[sploorp]

If Stauffer's showing last night was any indication, yikes! He was shelled. 

I was at work, so I had the game reduced and was listening more than watching, but my impression is that he was working things.  I can't really point to anything specific about the pitches he was throwing or anything like that.  All I can say is that it "felt" like he was throwing a bullpen more than a pitcher actively trying to prevent runs.

[Willihammer]

I can't get my head around a lot of Sabermetrics stuff, but I can visualize "IS%" (percentage of inherited runners scored). The Twins relief staff in 2014 allowed 31% of inherited runners to score (league average 28%), which was 22nd in the entire MLB.

That's... surprising for a bullpen that allowed so many balls in play (29th in xFIP). Seems like they may be due for regression in that area.

[jorgenswest]

If Stauffer's showing last night was any indication, yikes! He was shelled.

 

For 2 million dollars you get a decline phase veteran reliever that was used in low leverage situations with poor performance outside of Petco park. Good set up men cost north of 5 million on the open market.

 

Only the eyes of the Twins staff should be able able to gauge whether to be concerned on his performance earlier this week. There is good reason for anyone to be concerned that the Twins see him as a late inning reliever based on his performance outside of Petco and age. There could not have been many teams competing for his service this winter.

[Kwak]

Article had detailed analysis and improving the bullpen is a must.  The extension of this goal is to stop relying on castoffs from other teams (paying-up for proven quality is different) has to stop.  Develop your own RPs, so there is an abundance of young, fresh, and strong arms rather than hoping for "...an extra 3-5 mph because so-and-so moves to the bullpen, thus permitting him to [succeed]...".  The youth movement, with sufficient quality (and yes those very useful options) would permit a reduction to 12 and even 11 total pitchers on the active roster freeing-up a spot for an extra position player.  Matchups?  They work both ways (pitching vs hitting) except the hitting team gets the final move.

[Brandon]

I think the Twins have a solid mixture of solid arms for the pen.  Thy should be around league average.  Throughout the year the Twins will start to bring up and install ore power arms.  I am more concerned how the bullpen looks at the end of the season then at the beginning.  kind of like how the offense changed over last season.  Fien is a solid 7th inning pitcher, Perkins is fine, Burdi is on the way, Pelfry could be a darkhorse pitcher who exceeds expectation here.

 

Deunsing, Thielbar, and Stauffer/Pressley? are likely place holders and gone next offseason

 

I am not as worried about the pen ...outside of the OF defense, CF, 5thstarter, and maybe the 7th bullpen guy, I am pretty confident in this team winning 85 games this season. 

[ashbury]

Me thinks Pelfrey will get traded somewhere this month

He'll need to pitch better than he did today, sometime soon, or nobody is going to take him at all.

[jorgenswest]

At some point the Twins need to see how Pelfrey does when he comes in with runners on base. His performance as a starter with runners on base was significantly worse than with the bases empty. It contributed to ERAs that were worse than his FIPs.

 

It could be his slowed pace with runners on. It could be a drop in performance when pitching from the stretch.

 

They also need to see how his arm bounces back and whether he can pitch on back to back days without loss in velocity or command.

 

I am not sure that can all be assessed in spring but as soon as they determine he is not a starter they need to be putting him in situations they expect him to see as a reliever.

[ashbury]

At some point the Twins need to see how Pelfrey does when he comes in with runners on base.

Or just let him start a game. Events will unfold.

 

_{^{/ I'm actually hoping/rooting/expecting Pelf to do well enough to make the 5th starter decision difficult. Today's outing was not much in line with that however.}}

[laloesch]

I think there's a tacit assumption that the article is discussing Opening Day, and therefore who is on the 40-man roster right now. Adding Burdi now would mean dropping somebody - which wouldn't be the end of the world, but it's not going to happen like that so why factor it in.

 

The wild card for me is that currently the 40-man has 22 pitchers and 18 position players. That suggests to me there is room for a trade of some type in late March. It could be a minor swap to get rid of perceived dead wood (*cough*Nolasco*cough*), or it could be big. A big trade could change every discussion here, so you can only go with what you know now, but it's still there in the background.

 

True.   I too would like to see a trade of Nolasco and outright DFA of Pelfrey to free up rotation spots for Meyer and May.  But judging how Ryan and Molitor have been talking up Mike and Ricky i don't think it will happen.  The Twins are making a mistake by allowing May & Meyer to grow old in the minors (both are 25 now).

[Kwak]

True.   I too would like to see a trade of Nolasco and outright DFA of Pelfrey to free up rotation spots for Meyer and May.  But judging how Ryan and Molitor have been talking up Mike and Ricky i don't think it will happen.  The Twins are making a mistake by allowing May & Meyer to grow old in the minors (both are 25 now).

"... old in the minors..."  One could add that to several others, especially those that are projected to be RPs. Given their available options they could yo-yothese guys for three years to challenge them and see who suceeds and who fails. 

[DocBauer]

A really great article Thry. And I can't really put finger to keyboard here and disagree with you.  And yet...we have disagreed a bit on this topic over the last couple of years.

 

I absolutely agree that THIS is the year where the bullpen gets a revamp. It's time. And I'm not so sure that the bullpen that begins the season is the bullpen that ends it. I think Burdi, amongst a couple others, could make things really interesting.

 

But I think where we disagree   is that the bullpen wasn't always as bad as advertised the past couple of seasons. Were I not too busy, tired and lazy, LOL, I would bet real money I could prove the Twins pen the past few seasons was much better May thru July/August than the final numbers suggest. A worn out bullpen will begin to shatter at some point.

 

I agree the bullpen needs to be addressed. I think we have a lot of really talented arms that need, and are worthy, of opportunity. I also think by mid season there will be another 1-3+ bullpen arms ready to audition. The question is, will Molitor and Ryan and staff make room?

 

Even before that, will they make room for the guys they already have on roster? Because while I feel the entire Twins organization wants to move forward, Im still worried they might stick with veteran/contract pitchers for the reason of.........?

 

Go ahead and give Graham a shot if you think he's for real. Give Stauffer his $2M shot.

 

But to me, don't you dare ignore Tonkin, Oliveros and others just because.