Article: 2015 Twins: An Afterthought in the AL Central (And Why That is a Good Thing)

[Kevin]

The mantra has been the same over the last month, regardless of the source. “The best division in baseball? You have to think it’s the AL Central.” or “The most competitive division this season looks to be the AL Central!” No matter how it is framed, the reasons listed are always the same:“The perennial favorite Detroit Tigers still have David Price, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera.”

 

“The AL Champion Royals still have that speedy offense and one of the best bullpens in baseball.”

 

“The White Sox have improved across every position and look to be real contenders!”

 

“Don’t discount the Indians! This team has a sneaky offense and a solid rotation!”

 

The conversation typically ends there. When analysts list the division top through bottom, they seemingly always forget to include the team that has, unfortunately, taken up residency at the bottom of the division over the past four years.

 

If we are being objective, we cannot really fault the national media for not paying much attention to the Twins. This team, as currently constructed, is not expected to do any better than fifth in the division. Odds-makers have forecast the Twins around 65 to 69 wins and locally the Twins have fallen off the radar, evidenced by expected all-time low ticket sales (for Target Field) and a growing apathy among the fan base.

 

Yes, our beloved Minnesota Twins have essentially become an afterthought before the season has even begun. While it’s disappointing to see the Twins written off before spring training really gets under way, this national lack of interest directed towards the Twins may actually be a good thing.

 

How exactly do all of the aforementioned “negatives” create a “positive” result? Simply put, it removes a most expectations and pressure from what will be a young team. While Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano will always have some form of pressure as the fan-proclaimed “Saviors” of the Twins, other young players on the verge of the big leagues will play with zero expectations. Players like Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, Alex Meyer and Nick Burdi can all be allowed to learn and grow on the job without the expectation and pressure that they will deliver instantly and turn the team into a contender. This relaxed atmosphere can make a great difference – instead of being demoted or benched at the first sign of a slump, the young players can work through it, learn to adapt and (hopefully) improve their game, all at the highest level.

 

Of course, this reduced pressure doesn’t amount to much if the team is still an absolute train wreck – but there’s reason to believe the days of horrendous, unwatchable baseball are behind the Twins. While it may be easy to scoff at that line of thinking, dubbing it “early season optimism” the facts point to changes on the horizon.

 

First, the pitching staff has improved. While we will not know to what degree until the season has reached its conclusion, we can safely say that this year’s pitching staff (assuming they all enter the season healthy) is, in fact, better than last year’s rotation.

 

Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone / Trevor May / Alex Meyer create, at the least, a major league viable rotation. Ervin Santana adds another quality starter the team simply did not have last season. Meanwhile, Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone enter the season healthy after suffering through injuries last season. Trevor May looked better with each start, and Alex Meyer and his potentially “ace” level repertoire is knocking on the big league door.

 

Even if Phil Hughes regresses, Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone don’t bounce back and Trevor May doesn’t amount to anything more than Kyle Gibson 2.0 (which, wouldn’t entirely be a bad thing, mind you), so long as those five are making a majority of the starts, the staff improves simply based on cumulative quality. Lest we forget, Andrew Albers, Yohan Pino and a bevy of AAAA arms made a large number of starts for the Twins last season – it’s addition by subtraction simply by giving the starts to actual major league caliber arms.

 

My final point in favor of the pitching staff: Mike Pelfrey, who entered last season as the team’s third best starter, can now be considered the seventh or eighth best option – a great indicator that the overall quality of the staff has improved.

 

Meanwhile, it’s easy to forget that the Twins finished the second half of the season with one of the best offenses in baseball. Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas have been named as prime candidates for regression, which may be fair. Both played at an absolutely incredible level last season, and it would be unrealistic to expect that to continue without some growing pains this year.

 

Focusing solely on Santana and Vargas is a mistake, however, as it discounts the improvements we saw from Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe and Oswaldo Arcia. All three made fundamental changes in their approach at the plate last season, and all three showed marked improvement by season’s end – improvements that give every indication of being sustainable as we enter 2015.

 

Factor in a healthy Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter providing a consistent quality bat and contributions from the improved trio of Plouffe, Dozier and Arcia and there is reason to believe this offense will remain a threat this season.

 

To call the expectations for the Twins in 2015 “slim” would probably be a bit generous. The national media and much of the MLB fan base have written the team off prior to the first pitches being thrown. While even the most optimistic Twins fans would struggle to call the team contenders, I do think this is an improved club, lurking within this division, which will prove to be more of a challenge than they’re being credited with. If that is the case, this lack of spotlight may prove to be a very good thing for the Twins entering 2015.

 

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[gunnarthor]

Yeah, I think there's a solid chance that this team is similar enough to the 2001 team that went from 69 wins to 85.  This team has a few more veterans than that team but has more high-end prospects to rely on as well.  We'll see. Should be a fun year, I hope.

[jimmer]

I've not heard anyone say the best division in baseball is the AL Central.  That's an interesting view when you consider the NL Central and the AL West.  

 

I, personally, believe there are two groups in our division.  The first being the Indians, as the front runner , with the Tigers and Royals battling for 2nd and close to the Indians.

 

Then there is the White Sox and then the Twins.

[Mike Frasier Law]

Thanks for this. I'm very glad the world has low expectations of the Twins. Vegas has them at 68.5 wins, and I think that's just crazy.

 

Here's something I don't understand though. I'm looking at Fangraphs projections, and it sees a significant improvement in our pitching for 2015. 4.45 runs allowed per game, down from 4.80 last year. But for some reason, the projections expect the Twins to score way fewer runs: 4.05 instead of 4.41 from last year. I'm not sure why.

 

Even so, with those projected stats, our pythagorean record would be 74/88. If we score as many runs as last year (4.41 per game) but pitch as well as they expect (4.45 runs allowed per game) that is a 500 team.

[gunnarthor]

Thanks for this. I'm very glad the world has low expectations of the Twins. Vegas has them at 68.5 wins, and I think that's just crazy.

 

Here's something I don't understand though. I'm looking at Fangraphs projections, and it sees a significant improvement in our pitching for 2015. 4.45 runs allowed per game, down from 4.80 last year. But for some reason, the projections expect the Twins to score way fewer runs: 4.05 instead of 4.41 from last year. I'm not sure why.

 

My guess is that they have some big regression from Santana and maybe a little less from Dozier/Plouffe.  I think the Twins have the depth on the hitting side to still be a top 5 offense again but you could see the offense go off the rails in a few ways - like it turns out Vargas is a AAAA hitter, Hunter falls of a cliff, Mauer continues his decline, Santana and Escobar have miserable years, Dozier loses his power, Arcia plateaus, Suzuki suffers major regression while Pinto fails to improve, etc.  I don't think all those things happen but it could be another 2011 season - which would suck.

[Kwak]

Another "downplay the expectations" statement.  While (most likely true) is the purpose to inform (educate?) or to build the foundation to excuse  the Front Office?  At some point the old excuses become cliches (or just exposed as myths) and must be replaced.  I hope this isn't the purpose of the article. 

[whydidnt]

Keep in mind that the rest of the teams in the division have also been trying to improve as well. I think it's very realistic to think the Twins offense will be average this year, combine that with below average pitching, despite adding Santana and you end up with a 5th year of bad teams. 

 

While the Vegas line of 68.5 seems low - Vegas has been pretty accurate AND high on the Twins over the last three years:

Year Vegas  Actual

2012     73      66

2013     67.5   66

2014     71.5   70

 

It's safe to surmise that most everyone, including the odds makers, thought the Twins would bounce back somewhat from the unexpected disaster of 2011, but they have been pretty spot on the last couple of years. 

 

If I look at the division, I really am not optimistic that the Twins can finish ahead of any of the other teams. The White Sox addressed several needs, the Tigers still have Price, Verlander & Sanchez atop their rotation and added Cespedes to replace Hunter in decent lineup. The Indians have the Cy Young winner and a solid lineup, and the Royals will miss Shields, but are the defending AL Champs. 

 

I think the expectations are about right barring a surprise early impact from guys like Sano, Buxton, Meyer and or Rosario I don't think they will be much better than last year. Judging by the Twins handling of Meyer and May, I just don't think any of these guys are going to get much of a chance to have an impact this year. 

[tobi0040]

I think the twins finish 4th or 3rd, but I am not sure who they finish ahead of. I just see cracks in the other four teams

[Otto von Ballpark]

Lest we forget, Andrew Albers, Yohan Pino and a bevy of AAAA arms made a large number of starts for the Twins last season –

Albers was gone last year, and Pino was actually decent (as was Albers in 2013). Replacing those performances is not necessarily easy or a given.

[highlander]

Cubs are in first, why can't the Twins be in first.

[Old Twins Cap]

Just like in war, the best battle plan does not survive first contact with Spring Training.

 

There will be injuries, there will be holes, problems, gaps.   That's called reality.  On paper, this division is all really good.  And then, the season begins.

 

I like that the Twins are younger, that they have talent, that they have a stable of decent pitchers, and some hope for a good bullpen.  So, they have assets that could add up.

 

And, mainly, they have a new skipper. That's an intangible and no metrics apply. Overall, for the first time in four years, I want to see the games played and see what happens.

 

The rebuild has happened, albeit, way too slow, and now we are on the rise. What level we hit will be the fun part of the equation.

[halfchest]

Albers was gone last year, and Pino was actually decent (as was Albers in 2013). Replacing those performances is not necessarily easy or a given

 

He may have had the names wrong but the point was still spot on.  2013 we had guys like liam hendriks, scott diamond, vance worley, pj walters, pedro hernandez, rookie kyle gibson who was awful combining for 48 starts that combined for over a 6.0 ERA  that's not including pelfrey with 29 starts at a 5.19 ERA.  

 

In 2014 Pino had 11 starts at a 5.07 ERA so I wouldn't call that decent.  In addition to that milone, may, darnell, and pelfrey combined for 28 starts all pitching over 7 ERA.  

 

The point being it seems like we have better options this year for our spot starts and just our opening rotation has much better options.  Now anything can happen but you have to figure with regression to the mean(Nolasco, Milone, Hughes) and improvement from younger pitchers (May, Meyer, Gibson) we have much better options than the past two years.  You also add in Santana as a planned starter rather than Correia or Pelfrey and it would almost take some horrible luck to not be a much improved pitching staff.  

[halfchest]

To be clear, despite my reply above stating I think the staff should be much improved I figure best case scenario we're about a .500 team and settle in around 3rd or 4th in the division.  

 

I guess true best case scenario is 90% of the scenarios we talk about break positive for the Twins and then yah we're sniffing the playoffs, but I' not holding my breath.  Still looking forward to a much more entertaining team this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, the problem with listing the actual worst starters from 2014 -- Pelfrey, Milone, May, and Nolasco -- is that those same names are lined up to start again for us 2015. I am not sure if we can expect a dramatic improvement in that area.

[nicksaviking]

I think the whole division is going to stink. I wouldn't be surprised if there was only one .500 club.

[AlwaysinModeration]

While it is surprising to see Vegas put the Twins at 68.5, as it appears on the surface the team has a good amount of upward trajectory, the full equation includes the other teams. If Vegas see the other teams as significantly better, that might make the wins harder to come by for the Twins.

[Dantes929]

Yeah, the problem with listing the actual worst starters from 2014 -- Pelfrey, Milone, May, and Nolasco -- is that those same names are lined up to start again for us 2015. I am not sure if we can expect a dramatic improvement in that area.

Most teams that turn things around are littered with players that performed poorly the year before.    I am betting Milone, May, and Nolasco will all pitch better for us in 2015 than 2014.     I am ok with Nolasco being in the rotation and am hoping May is.      

[tobi0040]

Yeah, the problem with listing the actual worst starters from 2014 -- Pelfrey, Milone, May, and Nolasco -- is that those same names are lined up to start again for us 2015. I am not sure if we can expect a dramatic improvement in that area.

 

I really don't see Pelfrey or Milone getting many starts this year.  Milone may break camp but that is because the Twins have an irrational tendency to start the year with veterans.  If we have a ton of injuries maybe Milone does, but he would be an improvement over the likes of Pino.

 

May had only 10 starts last year, he gave up 15 ER in two of those ten.  That is why his FIP is over three runs lower than his ERA (7.88 vs. 4.77). He also fanned 44 batters in 45 IP. 

 

Ricky, well his career numbers suggest his ERA could improve by about a run.

[HitInAPinch]

Just tossing this headline out there.  It's from an investment site I follow.

 

"Don't Be Fooled By The Nattering Naybobs Of Negativism"

 

I don't give much credence to national writers who give us a lot of "Yeah, but" type explanations.

[tobi0040]

Most teams that turn things around are littered with players that performed poorly the year before.    I am betting Milone, May, and Nolasco will all pitch better for us in 2015 than 2014.     I am ok with Nolasco being in the rotation and am hoping May is.      

 

I would argue we have more regression candidates (Santana, Escobar, Plouffe, Collabello's April, and Dozier) as we do guys that may bounce back (Nolaso, Mauer, etc.).   I think if the Twins surprise people it is going to be a few young, talented players that come up and give this team a shot in the arm.  I think about Matt Harvey in his first year, If Meyer or May could have a year that looks anything like that....or Sano or Buxton come up and perform well that is where the upside will come from

[iTwins]

Albers was gone last year, and Pino was actually decent (as was Albers in 2013). Replacing those performances is not necessarily easy or a given.

 

Oops - Not sure where my mind was that I included Albers in that group. Perhaps 2013 and 2014 blended together? (It's spring training for my memory too...apparently). Replace Albers with Logan Darnell, Kris Johnson and even Sam Deduno (who was not as great in 2014) - the point remains, the quality of starters has improved.

 

I'd disagree a bit on your Pino comment. He had his moments, but giving his starts to May or Meyer will be an overall improvement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Most teams that turn things around are littered with players that performed poorly the year before.    I am betting Milone, May, and Nolasco will all pitch better for us in 2015 than 2014.     I am ok with Nolasco being in the rotation and am hoping May is.      

 

I really don't see Pelfrey or Milone getting many starts this year.  Milone may break camp but that is because the Twins have an irrational tendency to start the year with veterans.  If we have a ton of injuries maybe Milone does, but he would be an improvement over the likes of Pino.

 

May had only 10 starts last year, he gave up 15 ER in two of those ten.  That is why his FIP is over three runs lower than his ERA (7.88 vs. 4.77). He also fanned 44 batters in 45 IP. 

 

Ricky, well his career numbers suggest his ERA could improve by about a run.

 

No doubt those guys are candidates for improvement -- several couldn't get much worse!  But the original poster was claiming "addition by subtraction" of AAAA arms when that's not really the case.  We really only had 26 starts by "AAAA arms" last year (lumping Swarzak and Deduno in that group too).  The rest of the staff, all returning except Correia, tallied 136 starts and a 4.97 ERA -- which by itself would have been worst team SP ERA in the league by a large margin last year.

 

Those "AAAA guys" shifted our team SP ERA from 4.97 to 5.06, or in other words, barely at all.

 

And while not all of these returning guys will get a lot of starts, Nolasco is pretty much a lock and the others seem to be next in line on the depth chart, so at this point they project to get more starts than actual new faces like Meyer.

[troyhobbs]

I think the twins finish 4th or 3rd, but I am not sure who they finish ahead of. I just see cracks in the other four teams

Is this implying that the Twins do not have cracks?  If everything breaks perfectly, sure the Twins have a relatively high ceiling but if not they also have a very low floor.  Also, agree the ALC could be most competitive but not the best division in the MLB and Pelfrey was the 3rd highest paid SP on the staff last year not necessarily the 3rd best.

[tobi0040]

Is this implying that the Twins do not have cracks?  If everything breaks perfectly, sure the Twins have a relatively high ceiling but if not they also have a very low floor.  Also, agree the ALC could be most competitive but not the best division in the MLB and Pelfrey was the 3rd highest paid SP on the staff last year not necessarily the 3rd best.

 

Not at all.  Effectively saying we will be ahead of one, maybe two of the other four teams is noting that we are not a very good team.

 

I think the Royals outperformed last year and they lose their best pitcher.  Ventura is a regression candidate.  That leaves them with an average at best rotation and a below average offense.  Pen be dammed, they could slip.

 

The Tigers are going to fall from grace rather spectacularly.  It is probably still a 2016 event but this is an aging team.  Verlander looks about done and they lost a 6 WAR pitcher and Victor will never have another season like last year.

 

With the Indians, is Kluber a 7 WAR pitcher?  He never looked it prior to last year. 

 

And the Sox, our pythag last year was actually better than theirs and they needed 10 WAR from Sale and Quintana to have a pythag of 71.  

 

So I think you have a lot of moving parts.  I don't think anyone is expecting anything out of 4-5 young players that could have an impact for us this year.  If 1-2 come up and contribute I think we jump 1-2 teams.  That's all. 

[nicksaviking]

Seems to me nearly the whole division is relying on players who had outlier career years last year (Kluber, Brantley, JD Martinez) young players with only one season of positive performance (Abreu, Ventura, nearly everything good about the Twins) or star players clearly on the decline (everyone on the Tigers).

 

There are barely any established franchise stars in their prime in this division; David Price and the injured Chris Sale seem to be about it.  Perhaps you could toss Alex Gordon in there. 

 

I think this division has a whole lot of average and wishful thinking.

[Dantes929]

I would argue we have more regression candidates (Santana, Escobar, Plouffe, Collabello's April, and Dozier) as we do guys that may bounce back (Nolaso, Mauer, etc.).   I think if the Twins surprise people it is going to be a few young, talented players that come up and give this team a shot in the arm.  I think about Matt Harvey in his first year, If Meyer or May could have a year that looks anything like that....or Sano or Buxton come up and perform well that is where the upside will come from

Thank you for not putting Vargas on that list.    I don't think you can put Collabello's April as a regression candidate without putting his May and July  as a counterbalance.   Santana is an obvious regression candidate and probably Esccobar as well.   Dozier's power numbers will drop probably drop.    I don't know why Plouffe's numbers should drop.   They are not that different than career average and mark a simple maturation that you would expect in a player.   I think Mauer and Arcia are gong to come up big but I am not counting on the offense to be better and do not expect them to be worse.    Of course the rotation with many of the same guys can fail again but it doesn't take a Matt Harvey explosion to make a world of difference.     Seasons can turn just as much on guys like Nolasco simply putting a 4.3 ERA instead of a 5.3.   Gibson with three more quality starts,  Santana being half a run better than Correia and May being better than Pino/May of 2014.    The staff last year was such that I thought signing Pelfrey was not a bad move.    This year there is enough talent and depth that I would consider it a horrible move for anything more than a minor league contract.    .     

[whydidnt]

Seems to me nearly the whole division is relying on players who had outlier career years last year (Kluber, Brantley, JD Martinez) young players with only one season of positive performance (Abreu, Ventura, nearly everything good about the Twins) or star players clearly on the decline (everyone on the Tigers).

 

There are barely any established franchise stars in their prime in this division; David Price and the injured Chris Sale seem to be about it.  Perhaps you could toss Alex Gordon in there. 

 

I think this division has a whole lot of average and wishful thinking.

I guess I don't see it this way.  All of those guys are younger players, and younger players tend to get better, rather than worse. Kluber was really good down the stretch in 2013 as well, I think he's the real deal. Not sure they are outliers or not, but even if they regress, most of those guys you mentioned would be one, if not THE Twins best player. If Brantley regresses to .280 - 15 HR, 25 SB, he's still better than any Twins OF. If Kluber's ERA rises by 1/2 run, he's still better than our best, Abreu could lose 10 HR's and still lead the Twins in HRs, while hitting .300

 

The one I think is that a lot of people don't realize how much worse than everyone else the Twins have been the last few seasons. Sure they may improve, but not enough to really make a huge difference in the standings.  Their starting pitching is bound to be better, but just being better doesn't guaranty more wins, if the other guys still are better than yours. 

[Willihammer]

Seems to me nearly the whole division is relying on players who had outlier career years last year (Kluber, Brantley, JD Martinez) young players with only one season of positive performance (Abreu, Ventura, nearly everything good about the Twins) or star players clearly on the decline (everyone on the Tigers).

 

There are barely any established franchise stars in their prime in this division; David Price and the injured Chris Sale seem to be about it.  Perhaps you could toss Alex Gordon in there. 

 

I think this division has a whole lot of average and wishful thinking.

The Indians' don't have many franchise stars but pretty much the entire roster is in their prime age-wise. They have a ton of good-not-great players.

[jimmer]

The Indians' don't have many franchise stars but pretty much the entire roster is in their prime age-wise. They have a ton of good-not-great players.

 

The Indians' don't have many franchise stars but pretty much the entire roster is in their prime age-wise. They have a ton of good-not-great players.

and their rotation might very well be the best in the AL.

[Willihammer]

It does look like the Whities and Tigers are going more a stars-and-scrubs approach while the Indians and Royals seem to be stockpiling slightly above average talents. Still they have some guys who you could see turning into the next superstars by the end of the year.

Edited March 6, 2015 by Willihammer