Article: Can Rule 5 Pick J.R. Graham Stick?

[Nick Nelson]

Minnesota Twins camp came to life over the weekend with the familiar sound of baseballs smacking mitts, as pitchers and catchers reported to camp and official bullpen sessions started getting underway.

 

One hurler who is drawing early attention is J.R. Graham, whom the Twins acquired from the Atlanta Braves in December's Rule 5 Draft.

 

Graham is worth tracking not only because of the upper-90s heat he's capable of bringing on the mound, but also because of the interesting decision the Twins face as they determine whether they can make room for him in a somewhat crowded bullpen and avoid sending him back to Atlanta.The Twins have a number of hard-throwing relievers in the pipeline, such as Nick Burdi, Jake Reed and Michael Cederoth, but the team can afford to patiently bring these young arms along. That's not necessarily true of Graham, who they must keep on the 25-man roster all year long or else ship back to the Braves.

 

The Twins could work around this stipulation by hammering out a trade to keep him in the organization, as they did with Scott Diamond a few years ago, but one way or another Graham must make an impression over the next several weeks in order to force the club's hand. He'll have plenty of competition.

 

For all intents and purposes, the Twins have committed to five relievers in the bullpen -- Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Tim Stauffer, Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar -- so locking down one of those final slots will be no easy task.

 

Graham is a rather unique specimen. While Minnesota's system is now stocked with pitchers who can touch the upper-90s, those guys all check in at well over six feet. Then you have Graham, who stands at about 5'11" but was hitting triple digits as a junior in college.

 

It's rare to find a pitcher who can generate that kind of velocity from such a small frame, and perhaps that helps explain Graham's durability issues. Since being drafted, he has dealt with somewhat chronic shoulder pain, which substantially reduced his velocity, contributed to his shoddy results at Double-A in 2014 (5.58 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) and prompted the Braves to leave him unprotected and available to the Twins.

 

It could be that his struggles to stay on healthy have been partially due to the Braves' decision to transition him from college reliever to pro starter. He reverted to relief duty late last season (though with little initial success) and the Twins intend to keep him on that path.

 

If Graham can manage to shake off the injury woes, he offers no shortage of ability. Prior to the 2014 season, he had been ranked by Baseball America as the third-best Braves prospect, and was pegged as having the best control of any pitcher in the organization.

 

Graham's brutal season last year as a 24-year-old in Double-A certainly lowered his stock considerably, and the most troubling part is that he saw no performance boost after moving to the bullpen in the final two months, allowing a .378 batting average with seven strikeouts and five walks in eight appearances. This differentiates him from Ryan Pressly, who had similarly switched from starting to relieving shortly before the Twins snagged him in the Rule 5 draft but had experienced far better results with that transition.

 

Of course, with Graham, it all comes back to health, so the condition of his shoulder will be closely monitored in Ft. Myers. If he can keep his arm in shape and regain his velocity by pitching in one-inning stints -- as the Twins are hoping -- he offers more upside than Pressly ever did, and could end up being a major success story for Terry Ryan and Co.

 

If nothing else, he'll go down as another example of the Twins getting creative in their efforts to add some power to the pitching staff.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

Despite being just 5-11 (maybe), Graham has some bulk to him. He's not overweight by any means, but he has a strong build. 

 

I just think that if he's throwing 97-98 again, even 95-96, that's a guy you want to keep around the organization. Tonkin has an option, so do some of the other options. If Graham is closer to 91-92, then he goes back. Of course, if that's the case, the Braves may be more willing to make a trade to let the Twins keep him around. 

[nater79a]

Really a low risk move by the Twins to take Graham for a test drive in spring training and maybe early in the regular season. They'll know pretty quick whether he has regained any of his previous velocity.

 

Seems like J.R and Stephen Pryor are kind of in the same boat as far trying to regain their "stuff" after injuries.

 

By the way, not out of the realm of possibility that we get Sean Gilmartin back from the Mets also.

[h2oface]

The Twins should just have Graham tank spring training, pitch horribly, and then the Braves will trade for a lower level prospect, and situation solved. Graham can then get ready, if he can, at Rochester, and have a chance to be called up when Fien or Stauffer or Duensing or Thielbar tank. I would love to see the pen being rocked by Reed and Burdi by mid-season. Let's get on with it.

 

"......and the most troubling part is that he saw no performance boost after moving to the bullpen in the final two months, allowing a .378 batting average with seven strikeouts and five walks in eight appearances."

 

This is just not encouraging.  There is a reason the savvy Braves, who develop great pitching, didn't protect him.

Edited February 25, 2015 by h2oface

[AlwaysinModeration]

Do the five mentioned definitely have spots locked down? How many spots are left, and who is the competition for Graham for those spots?

 

I would like to see Graham do well and win a spot, but I don't get a sense of his chances here.

[Seth Stohs]

Do the five mentioned definitely have spots locked down? How many spots are left, and who is the competition for Graham for those spots?

 

I would like to see Graham do well and win a spot, but I don't get a sense of his chances here.

 

From Nick's article: "Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Tim Stauffer, Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar"

 

Those five are certainly givens to start the season with the big league club. That means that Graham is going to be competing with the likes of Michael Tonkin, Lester Oliveros, AJ Achter, Aaron Thompson, Blaine Boyer, and others for TWO spots. Of course, Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone, Alex Meyer and Trevor May can factor into the bullpen as well depending upon how the 5th start competition plays out. 

[gunnarthor]

I like Graham a lot, actually (as my quixotic voting at TwinkieTown shows).  Unless he looks broken, I think he makes the team.  He and Pelfrey being the last two bullpen arms. (Unless injuries/trades change that).

[MattyFats]

Why are we so "committed" to Fien again? 3.98 ERA out of the bullpen last year. Time to start opening things up to new additions and younger players and to stop settling for good enough.

[jokin]

Why are we so "committed" to Fien again? 3.98 ERA out of the bullpen last year. Time to start opening things up to new additions and younger players and to stop settling for good enough.

 

Really, that goes even more for three of the other 5 "sure things" in the pen.

 

It's a headscratcher that Duensing was deemed worthy to bring back.  Do you really pay that much to a guy who's value has effectively been reduced to LOOGY?

 

w/RISP-  .881 OPS  .374 wOBA

HiLevge- .853 OPS .366 wOBA 

 

T-Bar?-

The Twins were fooled by his numbers in 2013-  a sparkling 1.75 ERA was artificially pumped up by an unholy .175 BABIP and unrealistic 83.3% strand rate.  He saw a 1+ MPH drop in velocity in 2014 and didn't miss many bats, which produced a 40% increase in his LD%, a contact rate that jumped from 76.6% to 86.7%, and a Swinging Strike rate that fell nearly in half. plus a BA that zoomed up from .153 in 2013 to .270.

 

Stauffer?-

The dreaded NL pitcher coming from a pitcher's ballpark and who only threw in low leverage situations.

 

Hopefully, they won't be around for long as better RP options force their way onto the 25-man roster sooner rather than later.

[Rosterman]

Oliveros and Thompson and Pryor are on the bubble. Now, if ever, is a chance for ANY pitcher to pitch to stick with the Twins. I hope they start the season, anyways, with the BEST of the batch. DOn't make a spot for Pelfrey just because of salary. If May or Meyer aren't ready, let them start in the minors. Thielbar is not written in stone and has options. Stauffer is the new kid, but that doesn't mean you have to keep him around anymore than say, Boyer. Or Milone. More than enough bodies to choose from. Achter and Tonkin, too. Some guys are out-of-options. People like Achter and Tonkin will be pushed aside by Burdi and Reed, so if they have some life, they are tradable if you want to gamble more on Graham. And Gilmartin may return, too, who knows. Plus you still have Logan Darnell looking in, and -- well, are the Twins pitching rich? Of course, no need to get cocky, as the Twins were once centerfielder rich, too, and look where we ended up in that scenario.

 

Oliveros and Thompson, journeymen who you can live without?

 

Pryor, can you cut, keep, and is there a reason to do so.

 

Pelfrey? If he can't start out of the shoot and give you innings and keep you in the game, let him go and eat the salary, or bury him at Rochester like they did Blackburn and let him stay injured or work towards getting back to the majors.

 

May and Meyer want to pitch. I think May realizes that being in the bullpen in the majors is just as good as being in the rotation. Meyer NEEDS to get innings in (but not too many) at AAA, if nothing else.

 

Again, it is a person's job to lose, not win, on the Twins in 2015. And the whole process starts over again in 2016. If you don't cut it in 2015, you will be looking for work elsewhere.

[Michael (ClassicMNTwins)]

I really enjoy getting detail on these "sleeper" guys like J.R., who just might turn into a perennial on the Twins Major League roster. If you like Twins history at all, check out  my Classic Minnesota Twins blog post "The Phenoms of Minnesota Twins Springs Past: Part I from some time back, which profiles some legendary names from the team's annals. Thinking most of you have heard of Eric Milton...or how about Sergio Ferrer?

 

[Paul Pleiss]

I really see this only going one of two ways. Graham is either a boss and sticks, or he goes back to ATL. I don't think there's a scenario where the Braves let Graham stay if he doesn't make the Twins.

[Seth Stohs]

I really see this only going one of two ways. Graham is either a boss and sticks, or he goes back to ATL. I don't think there's a scenario where the Braves let Graham stay if he doesn't make the Twins.

 

I tend to agree with this.