Article: Who's Up First?

[Platoon]

I would let Santana at top until he proves he can't stay there. He is an aggressive runner, a needed commodity on this team. Oddly if not him, then Mauer. He is a very good, very odd hitter, and hard to place because of his quirks. He should not hit #2 because of his inside out swing, and because most balls to the right are ground balls. Also a fairly easy DP candidate. Fairly slow, but an instinctive base runner, he could lead off. 3 hole has always been a stretch because of the lack of power. It seems odd to put a .300+ hitter in the 6 or 7 hole, but that is where a lot of the other parts of his game fit. As for Hunter, do not be surprised if he finds out how sorely he misses Miggy standing in the on deck circle behind him. I think that is an oft overlooked scenario.

[jimmer]

I would let Santana at top until he proves he can't stay there. He is an aggressive runner, a needed commodity on this team. Oddly if not him, then Mauer. He is a very good, very odd hitter, and hard to place because of his quirks. He should not hit #2 because of his inside out swing, and because most balls to the right are ground balls. Also a fairly easy DP candidate. Fairly slow, but an instinctive base runner, he could lead off. 3 hole has always been a stretch because of the lack of power. It seems odd to put a .300+ hitter in the 6 or 7 hole, but that is where a lot of the other parts of his game fit. As for Hunter, do not be surprised if he finds out how sorely he misses Miggy standing in the on deck circle behind him. I think that is an oft overlooked scenario.

I'm a big fan of a stat called wRC+ (and I know a lot of people don't like metrics, so take it for what you will)

 

For the few who don't know, it's a stat that tells us about a player's ability to create runs compared to others in the league and isn't positionally adjusted, meaning if a catcher had a 130 wRC+ as a catcher, he'd have it as a 1B.

 

For his career, Mauer's wRC+ is in the 130s.  In 2012 it was in the 130s and in 2013 in was in the 140s. In the 130s is considered above average. His numbers are closer to the lower level of great than the lower line of of above average (so basically above above average).We have no established player on our team that has proven they are a better run creator than a normal Mauer and we only had one starter last year above a wRC+ of 118 9 (and we can add Hunter as one with a wRC+ of below 118), and that was Santana in the low 130s helped by his BABIP over .400, which I doubt is sustainable.  Even if his speed helps him have a better than league average BABIP, it will still very likely be much lower than .400.

 

So if we believe Mauer will be closer to his normal career performance...

 

Below is a good read for those interested.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/

Edited February 23, 2015 by jimmer

[ScrapTheNickname]

I think Jordan Schafer will bad lead-off a few times this year. Who knows, maybe a lot. He has an incredible ability to steal bases. Who knows if he can hit well enough. But I'm hoping he can.

[Dantes929]

Yes and played on a different team.  Should we assume he would have had the same amount or more if he had played with us? One of the many reasons I hate the RBI stat when looked at on it's own.

 

Another is for things like the following scenario which happens all the time.  Guy gets on 1B by single, walk, HBP, whatever.  Next guy gets a single to RF and guy on 1B goes to 3B.  Next guy hits a fly ball that is caught for an out but is deep enough to score the guy.  The guy who put the runner in such an advantage scoring position gets zero credit either in the way of run or RBI, but was vital to the guy scoring even more than the guy who made an out to score him and got the RBI.

I know you are talking about Mauer here and you know its an argument I have made before as well.   Mauer contributes to more runs without getting an RBI or run scored than anyone I have ever seen.   His value is definitely enhanced by having good hitters before and behind him.   Ideally you would have a lineup full of Joe Mauer's (preferably circa before 2014) though it wouldn't be bad to  have 6 of him with a few Thome, Morneau  types.

[KGB]

I believe in speed at the top if possible and as long as Santana can continue to get on base he should stay at leadoff.  He scored 70 runs in 430 PA's and had a Run Scoring Percentage of 43%.  Mauer's scoring percentage hovers around 30%.

 

Mauer is never going to be fast, but he has the ability to drive in more runs.  I think when we just expect him to get on base, we minimize his value.  He should stay in the 3rd spot and work on driving in runs.

[tobi0040]

The way I see it. Mauer is likely to be on base 39 to 40 percent of the time. At this point, nobody else on this team is a lock to be on base more than 35 percent of the time. No amount of speed makes up for that 4 or 5 plus percent gap, IMO. Give me a runner on first with no outs and I will take my chances.

 

Joe's career OBP is .401.  Santana needed a .319 average to have a .353.   His BABIP was .405 last year.   If Danny's BABIP is reasonable next year he may hit .280 or so, and using his 5% walk rate you get .330.   We could have a situation where Joe is on base 21% more often.  At some point you have a trade-off between speed and being on base more.  I would think anything approaching 10% or more would vastly exceed that point.

 

I really hope that the new Twins get rid of old baseball rules like "I need speed at the top of the order" and actually run scenarios based on numbers.

Edited February 24, 2015 by tobi0040

[Seth Stohs]

Santana - Great OBP and Speed

Mauer - Takes pitches and hits behind runners

Dozier - Great OBP and Power

Arcia - Big Pop

Hunter - RBI Guy if Arcia fails his AB

Vargas - Big Pop as switch hitter

Plouffe - Great 7 hole hitter (no pressure)

Pinto / Suzuki - Power or Contact

Hicks / Schaffer - Righty Lefty OBP Combo w/Speed

 

Leaves you with more game leadoff possibilities from #9 or #1 hitter as game goes on.  Both spots provide leadoff qualities (OBP & Speed)

 

I think this is the lineup I would go with (obviously Suzuki most of the time over Pinto. 

 

I'd keep Santana at the top of the order for a couple of months to start the season and see how it goes. I like Mauer in the #2 spot a lot for many reasons. I'd start Dozier hitting third due to his OBP skills and power. I might flip-flop Vargas and Arcia versus lefties. If Plouffe's a 7-hitter, you definitely have a chance to score some runs. And yeah, if Hicks can hit for any average, he should be able to keep that OBP where it is. Keep him at 9 until he's had a couple of really good months.

[Platoon]

I don't understand the Mauer hitting second philosophy. You could just as well have a right handed pull hitter bat there. It does not take saber metrics to know that he hits like a machine. Most everything he hits is to the left side, the stuff he hits to the right side is generally on the ground. Singles to left do not move a runner from first to third. And ground balls up the middle or to the right side, and into a shift end up as 4-6-3. This is not a denigration of Mauer as a great hitter. He is one of the best ever. But his perfection is to a fault. Shifts are very effective against him because he will hit the ball where it's pitched over and over.

[KGB]

The way I see it. Mauer is likely to be on base 39 to 40 percent of the time. At this point, nobody else on this team is a lock to be on base more than 35 percent of the time. No amount of speed makes up for that 4 or 5 plus percent gap, IMO. Give me a runner on first with no outs and I will take my chances.

 

Joe's career OBP is .401.  Santana needed a .319 average to have a .353.   His BABIP was .405 last year.   If Danny's BABIP is reasonable next year he may hit .280 or so, and using his 5% walk rate you get .330.   We could have a situation where Joe is on base 21% more often.  At some point you have a trade-off between speed and being on base more.  I would think anything approaching 10% or more would vastly exceed that point.

 

I really hope that the new Twins get rid of old baseball rules like "I need speed at the top of the order" and actually run scenarios based on numbers.

 

If the goal is to score run not just get on base, Santana should be given first shot. He scored 70 runs in 430 PA, while Mauer scored 60 in 518 PA`s. If the numbers are just in theory he should score more runs what good does that do?

[Dantes929]

If the goal is to score run not just get on base, Santana should be given first shot. He scored 70 runs in 430 PA, while Mauer scored 60 in 518 PA`s. If the numbers are just in theory he should score more runs what good does that do?

Small unsustainable sample size but I agree that Santana should bat first and Santana was likely helped in scoring that many runs by Mauer moving him over.   Platton, I understand what you are saying.  Speed and hitting to the left side are what keeps Mauer from being one of the best #2 hitters ever.   Doubles power and .400 OBP makes him a very very good one nonetheless..   

[jimmer]

If the goal is to score run not just get on base, Santana should be given first shot. He scored 70 runs in 430 PA, while Mauer scored 60 in 518 PA`s. If the numbers are just in theory he should score more runs what good does that do?

Last year, the top 5 AL teams in scoring were the top 5 teams in OBP in the AL.  In the NL, 4 of the top 5 in OBP were in the top 5 in NL for scoring.  The longer a team can delay making 27 outs along with the more people on base, the better chance they have to score.

Edited February 24, 2015 by jimmer

[DocBauer]

First of all, leadoff is a title, and in truth, not a description. Anyone can "leadoff" an inning. The #1 BO guy we're talking about could easily bat "leadoff" a second time in a game, and often seems to do so. But regardless, his job is to make things happen, create opportunities, for the hitters behind him. Regardless of how many outs, if any. This can be done by getting on base, via speed and stolen bases, or XB power.

 

In my younger days, I saw Boggs in Boston and Downing in California hit solid/great with good/great OB% and XB power, but couldnt steal a base if given a head start. Conversely, I saw guys like Vince Coleman, for example, hit some, but not necessarily have the great OB and little to no power, but excellent speed to stretch plays and put pressure on the opposition, as well as provide opportunities for the hitters behind him.

 

Secondly, I've always held the belief that your #3 hitter should be one of your best all around hitters. Big power would be great, but its also to have a guy who can hit and get on base as well as provide some power. This allows him to drive in runs, but also help perpetuate an inning. From the past, again, guys like Hernandez, Grace and Joyner come to mind. (just examples, and co-incidence they happen to be first basemen)

 

Mauer has caught a lot of grief in the past for not being a big power hitter or putting up big RBI totals. Santana has real ability to make things happen in the #1 or 2 spots. There are reasons for Dozier to hit in all 3 top spots. I don't like Mauer in the second spot due to lack of foot speed, and not hitting to the right side enough. But big OB% with 40 double power could make him enticing in the #1 hole. A return of Mauer being Mauer and I like him in the #3 spot.

 

FWIW...with a possible flip-flop at the top...

 

Santana

Dozier

Mauer

Vargas

Hunter

Arcia

Plouffe

Suzuki

Whoever does the best job in CF

 

Best mix of hitting, power and speed and even handedness balance.

[tobi0040]

Great stat jimmer. To pile on, santana had a babip that was 18 percent higher, which won't last. In addition to dozier and mauer behind him and fewer outs at least 20 percent of the time.

 

Look at it in football terms. The difference between a fast Rb and slow LB is about 3-4 tenths of a second running 120 feet. So I just don't see the speed difference between mauer and santana making up for the 5 or more percent of the time mauer is in base.

 

There has to be a break even point between the two. Seems well past it to me.

[Jham]

Hasn't Mauer said he doesn't like guys strying to steal when he's batting?  I thought I read or heard that somewhere.  Other than that, I always liked Mauer hitting second.  He does hit into a ton of double plays due to his inability to lift the ball to the right side.  Also the bunt seems to have left his game despite the fact that the 3rd baseman plays shortstop for many of his at bats and he's demonstrated exquisite bat control while bunting earlier in his career.  So Mauer will have to get used to guys running in front of him, because I'd be sending guys with Mauer up constantly.  I guess I also think Mauer's struggles last season were indicative of larger issues in his game (loss of bat speed).  That said, he had just fathered Twins, he was coming off a concussion, and his team was lousy.  I couldn't blame him if baseball was 3rd on his priority list last year.  When his kids start getting a case of the 2's, the grind of a 162 game season might not seem so bad after all.  So I guess I'll be optimistic for a bounce back.  

[jimmer]

Mauer also hits into double plays because he makes a lot of contact and people who do that when runners are on run that risk.  While we're on the subject though, how is an average of 19 GiDP over a 162 games (696 BA) a ton of GiDP? That's less than 3 % of PAs. Miguel Cabrera has averaged 21 over 162 games (696 PA) Mauer has hit into 20 or more GiDP only three times in his career and two of those times he won the batting title and finished 4th and 6th in MVP voting. The 3rd time he led the league in OBP.  Cabrera has hit into 20 or more GiDP 6 times (twice as man as Mauer) and one of those times he led the league in GiDP and won his first MVP.  What's Cabrera's flaw that's causing this? GiDP numbers are extremely over-emphasized and it's mostly because announcers like ours make a big deal of it and fans buy into it.

 

I think part of Mauer recent struggles are, in part, due to recovering from concussion but also the expansion of the strike zone which MLB is addressing.  I expect a nice season for him as he continues to put the concussion in the rear view mirror and the strike zone gets tightened.  

Edited February 24, 2015 by jimmer

[AlwaysinModeration]

Torii came up to bat last year with 370 base runners, and scored 69 of them for a 19% clip.

 

Plouffe came up to bat with 391 base runners, and plated 69 of them for an 18% clip.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Mauer: 52/337 for a 15% clip

Dozier: 52/402 for a 13% rate

Arcia: 40/268 for a 15% rate

[KGB]

Last year, the top 5 AL teams in scoring were the top 5 teams in OBP in the AL.  In the NL, 4 of the top 5 in OBP were in the top 5 in NL for scoring.  The longer a team can delay making 27 outs along with the more people on base, the better chance they have to score.

 

But is that the most important stat for your best player.  To me avoiding outs is playing the game not to lose, which for most players is the best way to win.  But when you have a player as talented as Mauer, I would like to see him play to win more often instead of leaving it up to Plouffe or another player on the Twinsd roster.

 

In 2013, with players over 500 PA, he was 15th in wRC+, but when you look at the actual runs created (runs+RBI-HR) per PA, he was 94 place.  At the end of the day, the game still decided by runs, and I would like to see him do more on actually producing the runs instead of just getting on base and saying his teammates didn't drive him in enough.

[jimmer]

When you just look at runs, RBI and HR, you take away moving guys over on the bases, you miss extending innings, you miss many things. And there's an assumption that if he had just tried a bit harder/been more aggressive, it automatically would have resulted in an RBI even if the pitcher isn't giving him anything really good to hit. Votto talked about this kind of reasoning a lot.  It was a good read,

 

Guy gets on base by single, walk, HBP, etc.  Next guy gets a single to  deep LC or RC, and the runner goes to 3B.  Next guy makes an out with a fly deep enough to score a runner.  The guy who got the single and put the guy at 3B so he could be plated by a fly out to the OF gets no credit at all for the run scoring, yet he was instrumental in that guy scoring.

[jimmer]

Torii came up to bat last year with 370 base runners, and scored 69 of them for a 19% clip.

 

Plouffe came up to bat with 391 base runners, and plated 69 of them for an 18% clip.

How many of these base runners were in scoring position? What was the difference in speed of runners on base (cause Hunter batted after speedy guys, Plouffe not so much)? How often were the runners going at the crack of the bat cause there was two outs, and so on and so on. So many variables that are out of the hands of the guy doing the plating.

[ThejacKmp]

I vote:

Mauer

Santana
Dozier
Arcia

Vargas

Plouffe

Hunter
Suzuki
Hicks

[tobi0040]

Torii came up to bat last year with 370 base runners, and scored 69 of them for a 19% clip.

 

Plouffe came up to bat with 391 base runners, and plated 69 of them for an 18% clip.

 

I guess I don't follow why this or even runs created is what we should be looking at.  For one RBI is a very poor stat.  Over the course of players career, this number tends to fluctuate a ton based on opportunities and BA with RISP becomes a small sample every year. 

 

But if we agree that Mauer will lead the team in OBP, which is close to a given and we buy that he is poor at driving in runners and hitting HR's (less of a fact), then that is exactly why you want him 1st versus 2nd or 3rd.

[KGB]

When you just look at runs, RBI and HR, you take away moving guys over on the bases, you miss extending innings, you miss many things. And there's an assumption that if he had just tried a bit harder/been more aggressive, it automatically would have resulted in an RBI even if the pitcher isn't giving him anything really good to hit. Votto talked about this kind of reasoning a lot.  It was a good read,

 

Guy gets on base by single, walk, HBP, etc.  Next guy gets a single to  deep LC or RC, and the runner goes to 3B.  Next guy makes an out with a fly deep enough to score a runner.  The guy who got the single and put the guy at 3B so he could be plated by a fly out to the OF gets no credit at all for the run scoring, yet he was instrumental in that guy scoring.

 

So if moving runner over is what is important, why have him bat first when the batters in front of him are the 8 & 9 hitter instead of batting 3rd and having the first 2 hitter in front of him?  I would think he would "create more runs" in the 3rd hole than as a leadoff hitter.

 

His avoiding outs will be just a valuable in both spots.

[Willihammer]

Last year, the top 5 AL teams in scoring were the top 5 teams in OBP in the AL.  In the NL, 4 of the top 5 in OBP were in the top 5 in NL for scoring.  The longer a team can delay making 27 outs along with the more people on base, the better chance they have to score.

In keeping with that, I wonder if the best lineup is simply to slot guys in decending order of OBP. Might even be able to sell that to the players if anyone moans about being moved down in the order. "Want to bat higher? Then quit swinging at crummy pitches and get your OBP up."

 

That method would look like

 

Mauer

Santana

Suzuki

Dozier

Hicks*

Plouffe

Hunter

Vargas

Arcia

[KGB]

In keeping with that, I wonder if the best lineup is simply to slot guys in decending order of OBP. Might even be able to sell that to the players if anyone moans about being moved down in the order. "Want to bat higher? Then quit swinging at crummy pitches and get your OBP up."

 

That method would look like

 

Mauer

Santana

Suzuki

Dozier

Hicks*

Plouffe

Hunter

Vargas

Arcia

 

How about some love for by wRC+ - here's that lineup

 

Postion Name wRC+

1 Danny Santana 133

2 Brian Dozier 118

3 Kennys Vargas 114

4 Torii Hunter 113

5 Trevor Plouffe 112

6 Oswaldo Arcia 109

7 Kurt Suzuki 107

8 Joe Mauer 106

9 Jordan Schafer 103

[Willihammer]

How about some love for by wRC+ - here's that lineup

 

Postion Name wRC+

1 Danny Santana 133

2 Brian Dozier 118

3 Kennys Vargas 114

4 Torii Hunter 113

5 Trevor Plouffe 112

6 Oswaldo Arcia 109

7 Kurt Suzuki 107

8 Joe Mauer 106

9 Jordan Schafer 103

Might be a harder sell with players but yeah, any rate based stat that correlates well with team scoring. Heck, Slg% would be as good as anything

 

Santana

Vargas

Arcia

Hunter

Plouffe

Dozier

Suzuki

Mauer

Hicks*

[KGB]

Might be a harder sell with players but yeah, any rate based stat that correlates well with team scoring. Heck, Slg% would be as good as anything

 

Santana

Vargas

Arcia

Hunter

Plouffe

Dozier

Suzuki

Mauer

Hicks*

 

With the expection of Mauer, the wRC+ is pretty close to what we'll see.  But I think the point is that there is no such thing as a perfect stat.  Just because it's new, doesn't always make it better.

[AlwaysinModeration]

The reason I listed the base runners plated is because RBI as a stat lacks context. Some were saying Torii just got more RBIs because he had more opportunities. The stats I provided added some context to that, and they are fairly intuitive. I haven't done more to figure out how many of the runners were RISP, but we could do that.

 

As for fast runners versus slow runners, who knows.

[Shane Wahl]

Did anyone actually look at the article I linked to? I still marvel at any lineup with Mauer batting third . . .

[Willihammer]

With the expection of Mauer, the wRC+ is pretty close to what we'll see.  But I think the point is that there is no such thing as a perfect stat.  Just because it's new, doesn't always make it better.

I think its an interesting throught experiment regardless of what stat you choose. If a manager says "you're going to bat in decending order of (fill in the blank stat)" then it takes the decision out of the manager's hands and puts the onus on the players to achieve whatever that stat values - XBH's in the case of Slg%, walks in the case of OBP, everything in the case of wRC+, etc. It would be interesting to see how each batter changes according to the system - perhaps Mauer would start pulling the ball or Arcia would take more pitches, etc.

Edited February 24, 2015 by Willihammer