Article: Push Candidate: Travis Harrison

[Shane Wahl]

The second of three articles featuring players who I believe should be "pushed" to the next level in the system will focus on Travis Harrison. Harrison had some high expectations placed on him after being drafted and has moved through the system in the same way that Adam Walker has. There are still a number of question marks about Harrison's potential, both in the field and at the plate.I do think that the Chattanooga Lookouts roster has room for both Walker and Harrison, and thus I think that there are more arguments in favor of Harrison's promotion to AA than there are for keeping him in A+ to start the year. That said, his prospect status is certainly starting to drop. Some of this is probably the result of an influx of top talent in the system, but some falls on Harrison as well.

 

The Player

 

Travis Harrison is 22 years old (DOB: October 17, 1992) and is 6'1" 215+ pounds. He was drafted in the first round (50^th) of the 2011 draft out of Tustin High School in Tustin, California. He has played in 318 games, with about 60% coming at 3B, 30% in left field, and 10% as a DH or pinch hitter. He bats from the right side. Expected to display substantial power, he has not actually done so thus far in his career. Harrison has progressed one step at a time from rookie ball through A+ ball and now is at an interesting point in his career.

 

The Situation

 

Harrison was considered to be a power-hitting third baseman coming out of high school, but a player who also was likely to end up playing first base. In 2012 in Elizabethton, he posted an .845 OPS in 253 plate appearances. In 2013 for Cedar Rapids, he impressed with a .253/.366/.416 (.782) line, with 28 doubles and 15 homers. He was quite young for the league and this was a big step. He did strike out 125 times, but also walked 68 times in 537 plate appearances. Moving to Fort Myers in 2014, he again had 537 plate appearances. His numbers for the year were .269/.361/.365 (.726), with 34 doubles, one triple, three homers, 64 walks, and 86 strikeouts. He also stole seven bases in 12 attempts.

 

There are some similarities, then, between 2013 and 2014. His BA and OBP are very close, he added only a few doubles in 2014, and he walked roughly the same number of times. Notice, however, a very interesting difference between Harrison and Adam Walker. Harrison's home run power was nowhere to be found in 2014, but he also greatly reduced his strikeouts. Perhaps this was an effort to become a more complete batter. The contrast with Walker is rather striking. There are two very different approaches here, and it will be interesting to watch them each make adjustments in 2015. The general thinking is that the power is still there for Harrison. The doubles certainly may attest to that.

 

Harrison's move to the OF is due to some significant trouble at third base, obviously. First base may have been the original second position that many had in mind, and it still might (and should) be an option. Right now, I would think that all four corner positions should be kept in view for Harrison as he moves forward.

 

The Possibilities

 

A .726 OPS for a corner OF is not great, however, so "moving forward" might not happen immediately. Harrison certainly could use some time in Fort Myers, one supposes, to slug his way out of such a middling performance. Furthermore, maybe Harrison should stay in Ft. Myers to work on his defense without the added pressure of raising offense when moving up another level.

 

On the other hand, Harrison did improve important offensive aspects and the power can still come back. I worry that he is following a Chris Parmelee path of development in terms of concentrating on contact and good at-bats at the expense of power, but I do think the discipline at the plate propels him forward in the eyes of the Twins. Harrison should be able to demonstrate at minimum moderate improvement with a move out of the FSL and into the Southern League.

 

Sticking at 3B would have been ideal. I do think that he should still get some time there, but it seems that a shift across the diamond to 1B, after his time in the OF, is going to happen. Chattanooga does have room on its roster for both Harrison and Walker, even with Kepler, Rosario, Sano, and Hicks also on the roster.

 

Harrison's prospect status has dropped over the past few years from near top-10 to high teens or low-mid 20s in some rankings. He can move back up prospect lists with a good year in 2015, especially if he can keep the plate discipline while getting 12-15 homers. It isn't clear what the long-term future is for Harrison. While he has fallen on Twins lists, he still would be a borderline top-10 prospect for the majority of teams in baseball. With a good season in 2015, he then could be very attractive for other teams looking for a promising bat. We do not know what sort of scenario would find the Twins trading away any prospects in 2015, but maybe the Twins season will be good enough to warrant such consideration in the next offseason.

 

In any event, I would like to see Harrison move up to Chattanooga and see what he can do with what he learned in 2014. He still can be a breakout kind of player and such a season would provide the Twins with even more quality prospect depth going forward.

 

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[highlander]

Why would you project Hicks to be in AA? If he is down there he should be released.

[gbg]

Why would you project Hicks to be in AA? If he is down there he should be released.

I'm guessing (hoping) he means Dalton Hicks.

[jorgenswest]

Harrison does need to be in AA.

 

There don't need to be blocks at any position.

 

Rosario and Sano need to be in AAA. At 25, Hicks is an organizational player. He can be 1B at any level that needs him. If 1B is Harrison's spot, put Hicks in A+ or AAA.

[Seth Stohs]

I think Harrison's advancement to AA to start the season completely depends on whether Eddie Rosario starts in AA or AAA. 

 

I also think that the atmosphere in Chattanooga will help many of those doubles to become home runs. 

[Shane Wahl]

Yes, that's Dalton Hicks instead of Aaron. D. Hicks is a 1B/DH prospect with a decent bat.

 

I agree that some of the issue revolves around roster space, but I still see a clear way for all of these guys to be up at AA Chattanooga where I think they belong. Somebody has to DH, and that can move around.

 

The most recent news indicates that Harrison's time at 3B is now totally over. This is very unfortunate for him and his future in this organization.

 

Anyway, Buxton-Rosario-Walker-Harrison-Kepler-D. Hicks can all be on the roster between the three OFs, DH, and one bench spot to work in. I would imagine that Rosario moves fairly quickly to AAA before moving to MLB.

[Shane Wahl]

I guess for those days that Sano is DHing, Michael can move over to 3B and Rosario can get his 2B time in that way. I do think that Chattanooga should just load up and they should get their real prospects AA time even if means a pinch hit plate appearance once in awhile instead of full games at A+. The difference between those two levels is very significant.

[nicksaviking]

I saw Danny Santana in CF last year Chris Parmelee play RF despite playing most if his AAA games at first and Trevor Plouffe play 3B after spending his minor league games at SS and the outfield. Then we have Michael Cuddyer. I don't think we can rule out any position for Harrison even if the club thinks they may have.

[nater79a]

I think Harrison's advancement to AA to start the season completely depends on whether Eddie Rosario starts in AA or AAA. 

 

I also think that the atmosphere in Chattanooga will help many of those doubles to become home runs. 

 

I'll bet Rosario starts in AAA Rochester, especially after his breakout AFL campaign.  Just a hunch.  This would open up more room in a crowded Chattanooga OF.

[Seth Stohs]

I'll bet Rosario starts in AAA Rochester, especially after his breakout AFL campaign.  Just a hunch.  This would open up more room in a crowded Chattanooga OF.

 

I tend to agree with that... 

[Jham]

I'll bet Rosario starts in AAA Rochester, especially after his breakout AFL campaign.  Just a hunch.  This would open up more room in a crowded Chattanooga OF.

 

Recent Strib article points to Molitor wanting him in Center and Mientkiwitcz saying he's MLB ready now.  www.startribune.com/sports/twins/292542471.html  

 

It would not shock me to see Rosario break with the big club with Hicks to AAA.  However, given the March Masher's (Hicks) success in spring training, I think think it's more likely we see him until June so we can delay that all important service clock.  

[Shane Wahl]

How often have the Twins ever promoted someone to AAA after they did not do very well in AA? 

Rosario was great in the AFL. But that is also relying on SSS once again. I can't believe that I am the one talking about applying some brakes here!

[brvama]

I also believe Rosario starts in AAA. While his return from his suspension was not at all stellar, one might overlook that, somewhat, given his previous years' performance on top of his elite performance in the AFL against top prospects. Given the logjam, puching him to AAA certainly could be justified.

[jorgenswest]

How often have the Twins ever promoted someone to AAA after they did not do very well in AA? 

Rosario was great in the AFL. But that is also relying on SSS once again. I can't believe that I am the one talking about applying some brakes here!

Rosario has 649 plate appearances in AA in which he performed basically at league average. His slugging is slightly better and on base slightly worse. He did this while being much younger than the league. Combine that sample with a good AFL performance and it isn't stretching him to place him in AAA. He needs to be in AAA and if he dominates over 50 games, he needs to be in the Twins OF. Best case, he pushes Hunter to the bench because of his play combined with the emergence of Hicks and Arcia.

[gunnarthor]

Good article.  I think Harrison is a good bet to be a big riser on prospect lists a year from now.  I think the hardest thing for prospects is to control the strike zone and Harrison showed huge improvement in that area.  Hopefully, he carries that plate discipline up to AA this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Rosario had a .407 BABIP and only .080 ISO in the AFL (not to mention roughly a 5% BB rate and 20% K rate). It was encouraging after his rough season, but that is not "elite" or "breakout" in any sustainable way, certainly not worthy of skipping him to MLB right away.

[ashbury]

A .726 OPS for a corner OF is not great

If he shows normal progress and has a season about like that in the majors at age 24 (assuming decent defense) it will be fine with me.  He can build on that for age 25 and on.

 

I'm with you on Chattanooga for 2015 and I don't even really consider it a "push".  Maybe TR and the rest of the braintrust do.

[Shane Wahl]

I still honestly do not see anything in Twins history, at least recent history, that would indicate Rosario starting in AAA after really dropping in overall performance at AA. Even if "league average" he still is nowhere near his career minor league numbers. The Twins value AA more than AAA, clearly. I mean, maybe some just want Rosario to be in AAA, and that's fine. Two cautionary tales, however. One, the Twins are going to think differently. Two, Aaron Hicks. Hicks smacked AA pitching fairly well in 2012. Rosario isn't even close to that, and we are not talking about him being the Twins second baseman.

 

The only thing that worries me about Harrison is the Parmelee comparison, and Parmelee hit much better in the minors than Harrison has.

[Shane Wahl]

If he shows normal progress and has a season about like that in the majors at age 24 (assuming decent defense) it will be fine with me.  He can build on that for age 25 and on.

 

I'm with you on Chattanooga for 2015 and I don't even really consider it a "push".  Maybe TR and the rest of the braintrust do.

 

I did mean a A+ season with that OPS. Point taken, though. I definitely don't think it is clear that he starts in AA, though I would do that.