Article: TD Top Prospects: #2 Miguel Sano

[Seth Stohs]

Despite missing the entire 2014 season due to Tommy John surgery, Miguel Sano retains his status as the Twins #2 prospect. In fact, reviewing most of the national prospect rankings, he has remained a Top 20 overall prospect. That is what happens when you have the elite talent and power potential that Sano has. 2015 will be an interesting year for the slugger as he returns to action. How long will it take for him to shake off the rust? More important, how long will we have to wait before we see him in a Minnesota Twins uniform?Age: 21 (DOB: 5/11/93)

2014 Stats: Did Not Play

ETA: late-2015

2014 Ranking: #2

 

 

What’s To Like

 

When we talk about Miguel Sano, the natural lead topic has to be his power. Few throughout minor league baseball have the kind of power potential that Miguel Sano has. In the organization, Adam Brett Walker and Kennys Vargas come close. At 6-4 and 260 pounds, Sano presents an intimidating presence in the batter’s box. Fortunately, he has been able to back up that power potential with real, effective power. In 2012 in Beloit, he hit 28 homers. In 2013, he hit a combined 35 home runs at Ft. Myers and New Britain. Along with the homers, he added 28 doubles in 2012 and 30 in 2013.

 

In his time in the rookie leagues, Sano was known to swing at a lot of sliders down and away. He has continued to improve his plate discipline each year, and with this power, that has translated into more walks. In Beloit, he walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances. In 2013, he walked 11.9% in Ft. Myers and then 13.0% of the time in New Britain.

 

Miguel Sano is a supremely confident young man. He knows he has huge potential and talent, and he wants to be great. He doesn’t just want to be a major league ballplayer. He wants to win home run titles and set records, and he wants to win baseball games. He is fun-loving, and he will be a media and fan favorite, but he will also work hard to achieve these types of goals. It is my opinion that he will play even better as a major leaguer since he has worlds of talent and he has that drive to excellence. He has an ability to raise his game to the level of competition. That’s not to say there won't be struggles and adjustments, but I have little doubt that he will be able to make the adjustments to get through the struggles.

 

What’s Left To Work On

 

Despite the home run power and the walks, one concern with Sano is his strikeout rate. In the two rookie leagues, he struck out in over 26% of his plate appearances. In 2012 in Beloit, he struck out in 26% of his plate appearances. In the first half of the 2013 season in Ft. Myers, Sano struck out 25.1% of the time. After his promotion to Double-A, he struck out 29.3% of the time. Few players are successful with these kinds of strikeout rates, and yet, those who have been successful have generally been power hitters. However, I think that if Sano can, after a couple of seasons in the big leagues, reduce his strikeout rate to below 25%, he can be elite.

There have always been those who question whether or not Sano can play adequate third base defense in the big leagues. The Tommy John surgery doesn’t change that in any way. Before surgery, Sano was able to throw across the diamond as hard as anyone, well into the 90s. If the velocity on his throws is reduced by even 5 mph, he’s still got plenty of arm for the throws. Will he be able to make the plays? Well, in 2012 at Beloit, he made 43 errors at third base, though most were in the first half. In 2013, between Ft. Myers and New Britain, he had 23 errors. Sano is a very good athlete for his size. He started out as a shortstop so he does have some pretty good instincts at the hot corner. He is able to play deep because of his arm. Often, his errors in 2013 were on more routine plays, and he made a lot of highlight reel plays.

 

That said, the question of whether or not he can be an adequate third baseman remains very fair and this is an issue that will need to be monitored.

 

What’s Next

 

The Sano situation is certainly interesting. Trying to predict what he will do in 2015 is very difficult. Obviously, fewer position players have gone through Tommy John surgery. Shin-Soo Choo had the surgery in late September, 2007 and returned to the lineup the final day of May in 2008. Carl Crawford had the surgery in late August, 2012, and he returned to the lineup on Opening Day 2013. Shortstop Zack Cozart had the surgery in August, 2011 and returned Opening Day 2012. In reviewing Jon Roegele’s terrific and thorough Tommy John Surgery List, it appears that most position players who have had the surgery before August were able to return by opening day the next season. The question for the Twins, Sano and the fans has to be, How long will it take him to shake off the rust of not playing competitively for 14 to 15 months?

 

I assume that he will return to Double-A to start the season since he last played at that level in 2013. That said, if the Twins were to decide that they would like him to spend the month of April in Ft. Myers to keep him a closer eye on him and put him in a place where he should experience quick success, I would have no problem with that. I think that, as fans, we need to be a little patient with this situation. It isn’t common. There is no Best Practice for handling this yet. When talking about a 21-year-old who is still believed to be a future cornerstone, doing the right thing is very important.

 

That said, once he gets to Double-A and begins experiencing success, it will then just be a matter of time and opportunity. That could be as early as June, if there were an injury or as late as September. Unless things go very wrong, we should see Miguel Sano in 2015.

 

 

TD Top Prospect #10: Nick Burdi

TD Top Prospect #9: Trevor May

TD Top Prospect #8: Eddie Rosario

TD Top Prospect #7: Jorge Polanco

TD Top Prospect #6: Nick Gordon

TD Top Prospect #5: Alex Meyer

TD Top Prospect #4: Kohl Stewart

TD Top Prospect #3: Jose Berrios

TD Top Prospect #2: Miguel Sano

TD Top Prospect #1: (You’ll just have to check back tomorrow to find out!)

 

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[AlwaysinModeration]

My guess is Buxton is #1

[nytwinsfan]

Great article Seth. Hopefully the Twins let Sano and Buxton decide their own destinies.

[nater79a]

Process of elimination. Who hasn't been mentioned in the countdown yet?  That's right...Ryan Eades at #1.

[clutterheart]

If Sano struggles at 3B where else can he play? The OF is getting crowded, Mauer is at 1st and Vargas can only DH.

[GMinTraining]

Read a great article on George Springer of the Astros regarding his strikeout concerns in AA and the majors.  Reminds me alot of Sano and his fuutre path in a positive sense.

 

Some of the comments at the bottom of that article had solid comparisons of his AA numbers to the likes of Goldschmidt; Kemp;

 

Does Sano's 29% SO rate concern fantasy owners?  Will it affect his chance to hit for average (.250 or better)?

 

http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=19064

[Madre Dos]

My lovable Miguel! The only thing he could say in English when he moved into my home "Will I get enough to eat?". Not a problem. His second question translated by Kennys almost got him into trouble. "Lady, are you to old to take care of me?" I am quite a bit older that Miguel's mom. I told him I was old enough to kick his ass if he needed it. He was a good roomy, quite messy. Kept moving his bed into the middle of the room.

[Madre Dos]

If Sano struggles at 3B where else can he play? The OF is getting crowded, Mauer is at 1st and Vargas can only DH.

[Madre Dos]

They had Eddie Rosario working out at 2nd for a season and he told me he was moved back to the OF because of the lack of OF players.  Maybe he could come back to 2nd base to make room in the OF for Miguel, if needed.  Mauer could retire and put Kennys on 1st. 

[tobi0040]

I am very excited about Sano and really hope he can stick at 3B.  Here are my best case/worst case for his career.  This assumes he stays healthy throughout his career which is never a given.

 

Best case - Mike Schmidt (granted a much weaker fielding one)  - This means he sticks at 3B.  Hits .265-.270. Averages about 35 HR a year.  .380 OBP and an OPS around .900.  Averages 80-90 BB a year.  I think his K numbers will be more the first half of Mike’s career, 23-27%, versus the last half where he brought his career average down to 19%.  Averages an o WAR of 5 per season.

 

Worst case – Adam Dunn. He plays OF or DH.   Dunn’s career average was .237 but was more in the .250 range until the last few years.  .364 OBP, .854 OPS.   Averages 33 HR a year.   80-90 BB a year.  K’s 28% of the time.    Averages about 2.8 o WAR per year.

[Lonestar]

If Sano struggles at 3B where else can he play? The OF is getting crowded, Mauer is at 1st and Vargas can only DH.

The OF is not crowded yet.  Buxton has a pretty high floor, but there are serious questions about Hicks Rosario, Kepler, and Walker.  Even with Arcia, there is the question as to whether he should DH or whether he should eventually platoon.

 

Plouffe at 3B is much less of a question than any of those guys.

[Seth Stohs]

My guess is Buxton is #1

 

I don't know... you'll just have to check back tomorrow to find out! 

[birddog]

How do you not get excited about Sano when he has the potential to create more excitement than Vargas did? It seems as if Joe Mauer is creating a logjam at 1B for some of our future stars. If he hits like the Mauer who earnedhis contract, 1B is his no questions asked; however, if he continues to hit like Nick Punto, move him back to catcher at least part time if Suzuki regresses or if Pinto is not adequate. If (when) he gets hurt again, we have Sano and Vargas to tandem at 1B/DH. I agree we have to be patient with Sano and make sure he is ready before he is promoted to the majors, especially with Plouffe becoming a decent 3B. If Sano is in beast mode to start the season at AA, it will be tough to convince Twins fans it is best to keep his bat out of our lineup, especially if Mauer or our catchers are not up to par. The future looks so very exciting. I hope Mauer is a major part of it, but if he is not living up to his contract, management has to do what is best for the team and fans.

[Seth Stohs]

If Sano struggles at 3B where else can he play? The OF is getting crowded, Mauer is at 1st and Vargas can only DH.

 

He's the kind of guy that they will find a place for and others will be moved. 

[tobi0040]

How do you not get excited about Sano when he has the potential to create more excitement than Vargas did? It seems as if Joe Mauer is creating a logjam at 1B for some of our future stars. If he hits like the Mauer who earnedhis contract, 1B is his no questions asked; however, if he continues to hit like Nick Punto, move him back to catcher at least part time if Suzuki regresses or if Pinto is not adequate. If (when) he gets hurt again, we have Sano and Vargas to tandem at 1B/DH. I agree we have to be patient with Sano and make sure he is ready before he is promoted to the majors, especially with Plouffe becoming a decent 3B. If Sano is in beast mode to start the season at AA, it will be tough to convince Twins fans it is best to keep his bat out of our lineup, especially if Mauer or our catchers are not up to par. The future looks so very exciting. I hope Mauer is a major part of it, but if he is not living up to his contract, management has to do what is best for the team and fans.

 

I think option one is keeping Sano at 3B. He is a franchise caliber player so he needs to stick at a premium position if he can.   He has the potential to be much better than Plouffe and Trevor would have some trade value at 3B.   Trevor will be 29 next season and he has a career .723 OPS.  In his best year, he had a .750 OPS which made him somewhere between the 7-10th best 3B.  Middle of the road as far as a corner OF.   We just can't knock Sano, who could play the game the next 20 years off of 3B for what will amount to a few prime years of Plouffe. 

 

And I say that liking Plouffe more than most. 

[jimmer]

If a 3B is between the 7th and 10th best 3B he's better than middle of the road.  Plouffe was 10th in wRC+ last year, he was 4th in UZR, he was 10th in DRS.  Fangraphs had him #4 defensively.  So top 10 offensive 3B and top 4 defender who has hit his prime and settled into his new position.  9th in WAR at 3.5 WAR.

 

As someone who has never been a big fan of Plouffe, he's a valuable player.  A player many Twins fan under-estimate because it took him so long to reach his potential.  Part of the reason it took so long, IMO, was the Twins inability to see he wasn't a shortstop much earlier in his career.

 

IMO, if we had just gotten him last year and he had the year he had Twins fans would be drooling all over him.

Edited February 19, 2015 by jimmer

[tobi0040]

If a 3B is between the 7th and 10th best 3B he's better than middle of the road.  Plouffe was 10th in wRC+ last year, he was 4th in UZR, he was 10th in DRS.  Fangraphs had him #4 defensively.  So top 10 offensive 3B and top 4 defender who has hit his prime and settled into his new position.  9th in WAR at 3.5 WAR.

 

As someone who has never been a big fan of Plouffe, he's a valuable player.  A player many Twins fan under-estimate because it took him so long to reach his potential.  Part of the reason it took so long, IMO, was the Twins inability to see he wasn't a shortstop much earlier in his career.

 

IMO, if we had just gotten him last year and he had the year he had Twins fans would be drooling all over him.

 

Right, somewhere between 7 and 10 at 3B.  Definite value there.  But assuming he has 2-4 years left of prime production (which is assuming he is the guy last year through ages 31-33)......does that make sense to give up for potentially 15-20 years of Sano at that prime position?

 

I think you move Sano to the OF now he never goes back to 3B. 

[Platoon]

Greatest TD headline of all time: WHOOPS, I FORGOT ABOUT BUXTON!

 

More than one commentator has commentated about Sano, Walker et al about swinging at down and out sliders. The standing joke at our house was always, how do you get Torii Hunter or Michael Cuddyer out? Walk the bases full, and throw them three breaking balls in the dirt! (We had a low humor threshold). Regardless, they and others have spent years in the majors trying to harness that temptation. Remember pitchers are not throwing it because it's a bad idea!

[jimmer]

I think all of Sano's value will come from his bat. I think it won't matter where he plays his defense will likely not be a strong suit.  I also don't think we see Sano at 3B for 15-20 years either.  

 

I don't know what the answer is, but I imagine some players will hit better than we expect and some will hit worse and this gets worked out naturally. If the Twins trade Plouffe and put Sano at 3B and his defense is horrible, that's yet another spot where we decided defense holds no value.

[nytwinsfan]

I think the Twins trade Plouffe when Sano is ready. Maybe give Plouffe a little time in the outfield if Rosario and Buxton are not ready when Sano is, but Sano is the 3rd baseman of the future. Yes, Sano is good enough that you'll always find him somewhere to play. No question. The reason to put him at 3rd is not to find him somewhere to play, it is so that you can keep Mauer, Vargas, and Arcia in the lineup (and later Minier or Diaz at 1st base). Plouffe is a valuable player, and I like the guy personally, but most of his future value to the Twins will be in a trade. It just makes no sense otherwise.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Is Sano really up to 260? I knew he was big, but I thought more in the 230 to 240 range. 260 is Vargas big.

[nytwinsfan]

I think all of Sano's value will come from his bat. I think it won't matter where he plays his defense will likely not be a strong suit.  I also don't think we see Sano at 3B for 15-20 years either.  

 

I don't know what the answer is, but I imagine some players will hit better than we expect and some will hit worse and this gets worked out naturally. If the Twins trade Plouffe and put Sano at 3B and his defense is horrible, that's yet another spot where we decided defense holds no value.

 

Ok, so who do you take out of the regular lineup then when Sano is ready? Arcia? Mauer? Vargas? Do you put him in the other corner outfield spot with Arcia and make the Twins outfield the worst outfield defense in the history of baseball (only sort of exaggerating). Yes, Sano is fast for his size, but the guy weighs 245+. There is no way he is going to be even an average outfield defender. It's a matter of physics. So where do you play Sano then if you keep Plouffe at 3rd?

[Jham]

If Sano isn't at least an average 3B for part of his career I will be a bit disappointed. This kid came to us a power-hitting shortstop.  He climbed to 2 in the prospect rankings because he had a chance to be a top-level third baseman with his athleticism and arm.  From what I've heard (never seen him play) he has consistency issues but has the ability to make the spectacular play.  You don't give up on that.  

[jimmer]

I think we should find out if Arcia, Vargas or Sano are actually able to perform at this level before we toss aside a 2.5-3.5 WAR player. And we have time to decide about Plouffe anyway.

Edited February 19, 2015 by jimmer

[Platoon]

Let me think about these two thoughts: Sano is one of the best hitting third base prospects to come along in years! Sano cannot beat out Plouffe at third base! Hmmm!

[jimmer]

Let me think about these two thoughts: Sano is one of the best hitting third base prospects to come along in years! Sano cannot beat out Plouffe at third base! Hmmm!

and no one is saying that.

[nytwinsfan]

I think we should find out if Arcia, Vargas or Sano are actually able to perform at this level before we toss aside a 2.5-3.5 WAR player. And we have time to decide about Plouffe anyway.

 

Ok, sure, no need to trade Plouffe right this second. But Arcia has already had 1.5+ years and Vargas .5 years of performing at this level. Do we wait more than late this summer to see if they continue to hit? And as for Sano, how do we see if he can perform (I assume you mean defensively) at 3rd with Plouffe there? Sure, we can put Plouffe in the outfield in late summer while Sano gives 3rd a try, but by then Rosario and maybe Buxton will be up. And is a month or two of Sano at 3rd enough to know with much certainty whether he will succeed there? He likely won't be as good as his defensive potential there right away.

 

I'm all for trying those things out, and getting as much info as possible, but at some point the coaches are going to have to make a decision on whether they think Sano is going to be an adequate defensive third baseman, and if they think he is, then the decision to trade Plouffe (and if he continues to be a 2.5-3.5 WAR player, then for substantial value) seems like a no-brainer to me.

Edited February 19, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[jimmer]

I guess I can fall back on what I said earlier: 'I don't know what the answer is, but I imagine some players will hit better than we expect and some will hit worse and this gets worked out naturally. If the Twins trade Plouffe and put Sano at 3B and his defense is horrible, that's yet another spot where we decided defense holds no value.' 

 

Obviously if Sano's defense is average and he's hitting a ton like so many expect him to right out the gate, then we have some fantastic decisions to make.

Edited February 19, 2015 by jimmer

[Seth Stohs]

Is Sano really up to 260? I knew he was big, but I thought more in the 230 to 240 range. 260 is Vargas big.

 

260 is Vargas small... Last year at Twins Fest, Sano weighed in at about 260, and he was about the same this year, I believe. In spring training, he'll get to between 250 and 255 which is what he played at in 2013. 

[tobi0040]

I think the Twins trade Plouffe when Sano is ready. Maybe give Plouffe a little time in the outfield if Rosario and Buxton are not ready when Sano is, but Sano is the 3rd baseman of the future. Yes, Sano is good enough that you'll always find him somewhere to play. No question. The reason to put him at 3rd is not to find him somewhere to play, it is so that you can keep Mauer, Vargas, and Arcia in the lineup (and later Minier or Diaz at 1st base). Plouffe is a valuable player, and I like the guy personally, but most of his future value to the Twins will be in a trade. It just makes no sense otherwise.

 

Completely agree.   You only move Plouffe when you know Sano sticks at 3B.  Plouffe by virtue of him being a 3B would hold more value in a trade than our LF.