Article: TD Top Prospects: #6 Nick Gordon

[Parker Hageman]

Over the past 10 years, the Minnesota Twins have had some of the lowest production from the shortstop position among all MLB teams but the future may offer stability in the form of Nick Gordon.

 

Selected with the fourth overall pick in 2014, Gordon entered the Twins’ system with lofty expectations. Certainly the Twins have used first-round picks on shortstops in the past -- such as Levi Michael (2011), Trevor Plouffe (2004) and Michael Cuddyer (1997) -- but eventually all were relocated to another spot in the field. Will Gordon suffer the same fate or can he develop into the two-way shortstop the organization has lacked for years?Age: 19 (DOB: 10/24/1995)

2014 Stats (Elizabethton): .294/.333/.366 (.699) with 6-2B, 4-3B, 1-HR

ETA: 2018

2014 Ranking: N/A

 

What’s To Like

 

Baseball America anointed Gordon the Appalachian League’s number two prospect, citing his natural instincts, first-step quickness, soft hands in the field, and lightning quick hands at the plate leading to a contact-oriented approach.

 

At short, he has displayed the tendencies of an elite defender with a rocket arm (he hit 94 mph with his fastball during a Perfect Game showcase in high school) which increases his range potential. The trick has been instilling in Gordon the idea that he can take his time, avoiding rushing his throws across the diamond -- which reportedly happened on several occasions this season -- but truly a lesson all shortstops must learn as they adapt to the faster game.

 

Considering it was his first year of professional baseball where he was two years younger than the league’s average, his .294/.333/.366 slash line in 255 plate appearances was solid. In all, he was fourth in hits (69), second in runs scored (46), tied for third in triples (4), and tenth in stolen bases (11). Gordon’s season ended with the E-Twins in the playoffs and his left hand in a cast after suffering a broken finger against the Johnson City Cardinals in the postseason. Despite ending the year sidelined, the Twins are excited about his future.

 

“With the maturity and skill level we saw from him in high school, we thought he’d be able to compete at that level and handle any adversity,” Twins Minor League Director Brad Steil told Twins Daily’s Seth Stohs on the decision to place Gordon in the advanced rookie league, “He was probably more prepared for pro ball than most high school players, having been around it most of his life because of his dad and brother.”

 

With major league bloodlines -- an All-Star brother, Dee, who currently plays second for the Miami Marlins and father, Tom, who pitched for 21 years in the majors as a three-time All-Star -- the Twins know that he has the genetics to complement his personal drive to reach and excel at the major league level.

 

“You value the gene,” said Mike Radcliff, the Twins’ Vice President of Player Personnel, last July. “When you come from a major league gene, that’s what it is all about. There’s a great value at the beginning of their careers and a feeling that they won’t be overmatched.”

 

What’s Left To Work On

 

Like any raw but talented prospect, Gordon has areas of his game that need improvement.

 

Despite having all of the natural talent to play shortstop, Radcliff pointed out that as he ascends in the system the Twins want to see Gordon smooth out his footwork and pivot at second base, necessary components of middle infield success . Offensively, while he demonstrated an excellent ability to garner hits, Gordon’s plate discipline was lacking. He struck out in 18% of his plate appearances -- a decent rate compared to the league’s average -- but walked in just 4%, making him one of the league’s least frequent walkers. Improvement in that area would help buoy his on-base percentage and put him on the bases more in order to take advantage of his speed.

 

While his pre-draft profile suggested he would provide power, ultimately the left-handed hitting Gordon’s swing stays inside the ball more which has made his spray chart look strikingly similar to that of Joe Mauer: ground balls to second and balls in the air to left. This distribution is not an optimal way to generate power. Admittedly Gordon is not exactly built like a brick blankhouse but adding weight has been a goal for him this offseason. The Twins stressed that they want to see him add to his “man muscles” which, in theory, should help him generate more power. For his part, Gordon has spent the offseason attempting to hasten that process. “I’ve just been working out, trying to put on some weight, and stay fast,” Gordon told Stohs in January. “Stay to my game. I’m loving the process.”

 

What's Next

 

Nick Gordon is gifted in ways that should make normal players envious but he still needs seasoning.

 

It is hard not to be enamored of his work in the field. Dinged for eight errors -- a faulty stat on many levels -- his E-6 totals pale in comparison to seasons of past Elizabethton shortstops like Brian Dozier (14), James Beresford (23) or Trevor Plouffe (16).

 

Will his patience at the plate increase? If you listen to Oakland’s GM Billy Beane, probably not wholesale. “It can be taught, but we’d have to take guys in diapers to do it,” the A’s general manager remarked in Michael Lewis’ book Moneyball. And Gordon acknowledges his aggressive approach which has led to a near .300 batting average. And what about his power numbers? Radcliff believes the extra bases will come as he matures and continues to fill out his frame.

 

The Twins will likely move him to Class-A Cedar Rapids where he can hone his defensive skills and make adjustments at the plate. If he is able to damage that league both with his glove and bat, a stop in Fort Myers is likely not out of the question.

 

TD Top Prospect #10: Nick Burdi

TD Top Prospect #9: Trevor May

TD Top Prospect #8: Eddie Rosario

TD Top Prospect #7: Jorge Polanco

TD Top Prospect #6: Nick Gordon

TD Top Prospect #5:

TD Top Prospect #4:

TD Top Prospect #3:

TD Top Prospect #2:

TD Top Prospect #1:

 

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[Brock Beauchamp]

 

 

The Twins stressed that they want to see him add his “man muscles” which, in theory, should help him generate more power.

 

Has Scott Ullger moved to the Twins' training staff?

[nater79a]

Interesting comment by Parker below that I never thought of before:

 

"At short, he has displayed the tendencies of an elite defender with a rocket arm (he hit 94 mph with his fastball during a Perfect Game showcase in high school) which increases his range potential."

 

As a SS ,you can get to balls deep in the whole, behind second base or on the outfield grass, but if you don't have the cannon arm it essentially limits your effective range.  

[highlander]

This is the kid that is really exciting, except that is what I think of Buxton, ah er Sano.  Geez is it fun to see these kids mature. Fast forward to 2017 game seven, Gordon at short flips it to Dozier and Burdi has sealed the deal!!!!!!!

[AlwaysinModeration]

I think that playing deep is one of the ways SS rank higher in fielding metrics. One of the reason's JJ Hardy always rated well in these metrics is how deep he played. Conversely, Jeter missed a lot of grounders because he always played so shallow ("pasta diving Jeter").

 

Hopefully Gordon will play deep in the hole and leverage that cannon.

[gil4]

Fast forward to 2017 game seven, Gordon at short flips it to Dozier and Burdi has sealed the deal!!!!!!!

 

I don't know if my nerves can take another game seven.  Can we make it game four to complete the sweep instead?

[gil4]

I'm excited about Gordon as a prospect, and I'm really excited about the fact that there are five more rated higher.

[Seth Stohs]

On my list, I had Gordon at #4, but he's #6 on this consolidated list. It's been interesting to see where he ranks among Twins prospects in all of the various national or local top 10s. He is so talented and poised too. I think he's got a chance to be really good. Obviously there's a long ways to go, but he's pretty exciting!! As gil4 said above, the fact that there are five more prospects to come is very exciting!

[Parker Hageman]

As a SS ,you can get to balls deep in the hole, behind second base or on the outfield grass, but if you don't have the cannon arm it essentially limits your effective range.

 

 

Yes, this was pointed out a lot in George Will's Men At Work during his Cal Ripken section. If a player can put stank on the ball -- with a quick release, mind you -- this increases the likelihood of covering the 5.5 hole between short and third and can help compensate for players like Hardy and Ripken that did not have blinding quickness. 

[big dog]

Yeah, exactly.  When Hardy joined the Twins, I was disappointed in his lack of range.  Then I noticed he happened to get a lot of balls hit to him, and his throws tended to hit Morneau in the chest, as compared to all the diving and stretching Justin had done previously.  Give me the good arm and positioning every time.

[jimmer]

Yeah, exactly.  When Hardy joined the Twins, I was disappointed in his lack of range.  Then I noticed he happened to get a lot of balls hit to him, and his throws tended to hit Morneau in the chest, as compared to all the diving and stretching Justin had done previously.  Give me the good arm and positioning every time.

Whenever I watch Hardy seems he has great range and an accurate arm. In the year he played for us, RZR (range) listed him 2nd.

Edited February 13, 2015 by jimmer

[clutterheart]

I wonder why I am not excited about Gordon.  For some reason he reminds me of other High School SS the team drafted.  I am more hopeful about the International signings then him

 

I hope I am wrong!

[nater79a]

Yes, this was pointed out a lot in George Will's Men At Work during his Cal Ripken section. If a player can put stank on the ball -- with a quick release, mind you -- this increases the likelihood of covering the 5.5 hole between short and third and can help compensate for players like Hardy and Ripken that did not have blinding quickness. 

 

Good point. The third leg of the stool besides lateral quickness and strong arm...good footwork and body control leading to the quick release.

 

Sounds like Gordon is working on that quite a bit.

[TRex]

I wonder why I am not excited about Gordon.  For some reason he reminds me of other High School SS the team drafted.  I am more hopeful about the International signings then him

 

I hope I am wrong!

If you can provide a single scouting report that indicates he will 'likely':

• outgrow,
• not have the arm for,
• not have the range for,
• not hit enough for

SS, I will understand your position. However, unlike Cuddyer, Plouffe, Dozier, and even Goodrum, I do not see any evaluations that really question any of these points.

 

This is not to say that there weren't discussions of his relative 'goodness' at any of these traits, however !

 

In my opinion, his down-side is Pedro Florimon. And while that might make some people 'throw up in their mouth' a little bit, I think that is a pretty good floor (certainly better than Plouffe, Dozier or Goodrum).

 

While I don't like to suggest an MiLBer will have a career like a HOFer, I don't mind saying that a prospect projects to have a (some) year(s) similar to a HOF average year (does that make sense?). In that vein, I could definitely see Gordon matching the average year for Barry Larkin, who had a triple slash of .295/.371/.444 with 23D, 4T and 10HR while stealing ~20 bases at an 80% clip. Add in GG-caliber defense, and how can you not be excited.

[Dave T]

Gordon rated ahead of Polanco and Rosario?  I imagine this is because he really will make it to the big leagues as a shortstop, unlike Plouffe and Dozier?

[Seth Stohs]

Gordon rated ahead of Polanco and Rosario?  I imagine this is because he really will make it to the big leagues as a shortstop, unlike Plouffe and Dozier?

 

We determined our rankings for Twins Daily's Top 20 prospects before any of the national shows/sites posted theirs. I mention that because all of them have Gordon as a Top 100 prospect and neither Polanco or Rosario. We obviously like our 7 and 8 prospects as well, but I think Gordon's talent, upside, pedigree, intelligence, poise, and as you said, his likelihood to stay at shortstop all factor in. 

[big dog]

Whenever I watch Hardy seems he has great range and an accurate arm. In the year he played for us, RZR (range) listed him 2nd.

 

RZR is the fraction of balls converted into outs, right?  That could be accounted for by great speed or great positioning.  I don't think anyone's fooled about Hardy's speed.

[jimmer]

RZR is the fraction of balls converted into outs, right?  That could be accounted for by great speed or great positioning.  I don't think anyone's fooled about Hardy's speed.

'Revised Zone Rating (RZR) measures, “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out.  RZR measures a player’s range, taking three things into account: the amount of Balls In Zone (BIZ) a player receives, a player’s total Plays Made, and a player’s total amount of Out Of Zone Plays Made (OOZ). It is, essentially, a simplified version of UZR. 

 

So it measures the range as opposed to the stat that is called range factor. Range factor is calculated by dividing putouts and assists by the number of innings or games played at a given defense position.

 

For me, it seems there's a difference between speed and quickness.

Edited February 13, 2015 by jimmer

[ScrapTheNickname]

Yeah, exactly.  When Hardy joined the Twins, I was disappointed in his lack of range.  Then I noticed he happened to get a lot of balls hit to him, and his throws tended to hit Morneau in the chest, as compared to all the diving and stretching Justin had done previously.  Give me the good arm and positioning every time.

Hardy's glove is an easygoing vacuum cleaner, and that helps too.

[DocBauer]

Just out of curiosity, no disrespect or lack of excitement for Gordon and his ability and potential, but he just completed rookie ball. Meanwhile, the very talented Polanco is on pace to begin the 2015 season where he ended it, at AA. Polanco is a couple years older, 2 rungs higher on the milb ladder, and seems to possess hit, XB and RBI tools along with decent speed and possibly still budding HR power of a double digit variety. So what is it about the younger, rookie Gordon specifically that rates him higher?

[Seth Stohs]

Just out of curiosity, no disrespect or lack of excitement for Gordon and his ability and potential, but he just completed rookie ball. Meanwhile, the very talented Polanco is on pace to begin the 2015 season where he ended it, at AA. Polanco is a couple years older, 2 rungs higher on the milb ladder, and seems to possess hit, XB and RBI tools along with decent speed and possibly still budding HR power of a double digit variety. So what is it about the younger, rookie Gordon specifically that rates him higher?

Potential. Upside. Projection. Projection as a shortstop. Power potential.

[Paul Pleiss]

Nick Gordon is the first Twins prospect that makes me feel old. I don't know why Byron Buxton, born on my birthday, more than a decade after me doesn't make me feel old, but Nick Gordon does. And now I'm no longer "young." Or whatever.

 

At least I learned how to enjoy a cold beer and the game of baseball a long the way.

[gil4]

Nick Gordon is the first Twins prospect that makes me feel old. I don't know why Byron Buxton, born on my birthday, more than a decade after me doesn't make me feel old, but Nick Gordon does. And now I'm no longer "young." Or whatever.

 

 

Twins AA manager Doug Mientkiewicz was drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of 1995, when I was 30.  I'm 50 now and with that milestone I have officially scrapped the idea of brushing up on my knuckleball and heading to one of the MLB tryouts.  (If it really starts dancing I can still dust the plan off and use it.)

[Thrylos]

I don't know... 

 

All I hear about Gordon is "bloodline".  And his brother has a career 86 OPS+ in the majors.  Great fantasy value with all those stolen bases, but...

 

FWIW he was 12th in my list (and the second SS and middle infield prospect behind Polanco).   A .699  OPS in E-Town (Sano's was .988, Polanco's .903 and Buxton's .796 same age, same place and Rosario's 1.068 same place a year older) just does not leave me warm and fuzzy about being in the same conversation as these 4, for example...  Lot's of potential, but needs to be realized, plus the bloodline does not mean that much...

Edited February 15, 2015 by Thrylos

[Parker Hageman]

And his brother has a career 86 OPS+ in the majors.  Great fantasy value with all those stolen bases, but...

 

 

In his first full season as a starter, Dee was a 3.1 WAR player.

 

In terms of his E-Town performance? M'eh, I wouldn't focus on that. As opposed to Sano, Polanco and Buxton, Gordon was not afforded the luxury of getting his feet wet at a development level in the GCL. And trying to compare performances in those leagues across time is difficult. For instance, the offensive environment in the Appy League in 2011 was far superior to that of 2014. That could be a case of a better class of pitching or inferior offensive players but it goes to show comparing sheer OPS numbers is not telling of the entire story. 

 

Definitely correct in that he still needs to prove that his tools can result in success. His second season should be something to watch.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nick Gordon is the first Twins prospect that makes me feel old. I don't know why Byron Buxton, born on my birthday, more than a decade after me doesn't make me feel old, but Nick Gordon does. And now I'm no longer "young." Or whatever.

 

At least I learned how to enjoy a cold beer and the game of baseball a long the way.

Probably b/c you have rookie cards of his dad. I know I do.

[Seth Stohs]

Probably b/c you have rookie cards of his dad. I know I do.

 

 

I do too. Lots of them!

[gunnarthor]

Baseball America has a small little video review of Gordon

http://www.baseballamerica.com/videos/scouts-video-view-nick-gordon/