Article: TD Top Prospects: #10 Nick Burdi

[Nick Nelson]

You've probably heard this crazy statistic: In 2014, the Twins had one pitcher (late-season call-up Lester Oliveros) throw a pitch that was clocked at 97 MPH or above. By comparison, the American League Champion Kansas City Royals registered 2,287 such pitches.

 

Major league baseball is trending toward pitchers -- especially relievers -- with big velocity, and while the Twins may appear far behind the curve based on the above finding, they're certainly not ignorant to this reality. The club's draft strategy in recent years has reflected an increased emphasis on power arms -- even those that are clearly slated for future roles in the bullpen -- and no one personifies this altered approach better than Nick Burdi.

 

The Twins selected the hard-throwing righty in the second round of last year's draft, and already he has become one of the most noteworthy relief prospects in all of the minor leagues.Age: 22 (DOB: 1/19/93)

2014 Stats (A/A+): 20.1 IP, 2.66 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 38/16 K/BB

ETA: 2015

2014 Ranking: NR

 

What's To Like

 

Burdi's fastball has always set him apart. In high school, when he was already touching the mid-90s with the heater, his coach called him a "once-in-a-lifetime pitcher," adding "I don't expect I will get another guy who can throw 95 plus in high school."

 

The Twins took notice of Burdi's stunning velocity early on, and selected him in the 24th round of the 2011 draft following his senior year, but he opted instead to attend college at the University of Louisville. That turned out to be a good decision.

 

Burdi quickly developed into one of the most dominant collegiate closers in the country, proving almost unhittable while averaging nearly two strikeouts per inning. By his sophomore year, he was hitting triple-digits on the radar gun with some frequency. In his junior year, he posted a 0.49 ERA while piling up 65 strikeouts in 37 innings and holding opponents to a .135 batting average. The Twins once again drafted him, with the No. 46 overall pick last June, and this time Burdi signed for a $1.2 million bonus.

 

As a polished college closer, Burdi skipped rookie ball and reported straight to Class-A Cedar Rapids after signing. He struggled badly in his pro debut, walking all four batters he faced, but from that point forward he looked very much like the overpowering force that he'd been at Louisville, putting up a 0.89 ERA while limiting the opposition to a .186/.260/.214 line between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. Oh, that was with opponents batting .406 on balls in play.

 

Of the 82 hitters that Burdi faced between Low-A and High-A in his first taste of professional baseball, he struck out 38. That's 46 percent.

 

What's Left To Work On

 

With any tall, lanky pitcher who routinely works in the upper-90s, there are going to be two pre-eminent concerns: control and health. The latter has yet to become an issue for Burdi, and since he's being groomed strictly as a late-inning reliever, he may be able to avoid injuries stemming from overuse. Nevertheless, it will be worth keeping an eye on.

 

As far as control, Burdi obviously had the major hiccup in his first pro appearance last summer, but otherwise had no issues, walking six hitters over his remaining 19 outings. Of course, when you're a 21-year-old coming out of a major college conference and firing 100-MPH fastballs at Single-A hitters, sometimes command issues can stay hidden. It'll be interesting to see how his walk rates shake out at the higher levels.

 

What's Next

 

There's nothing left for Burdi to prove in Single-A, so he will most likely open the season as the closer on a Class-AA Chattanooga roster that figures to be loaded with high-end prospect talent. From there, the righty will have a chance to rise very quickly if he continues to dominate with his devastating fastball/slider combo. It would be no surprise to see him in the majors setting up Glen Perkins by season's end.

 

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[clutterheart]

What are his off speed pitches like? Is his FB straight or does it have movement.

 

Hopefully he isn't another Jim Hoey

[DocBauer]

If I remember correctly, doesn't he have an inconsistent changeup he was working on? I know he doesn't really need it with the hard two pitch mix he possesses, but how great would it be to flash that third pitch here and there.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

When I saw him in Cedar Rapids he threw three pitches: A super fastball and two sliders - one in the zone that locked up knees and one that people chased out of the zone. It was very electric.

[big dog]

Let's Go, Burdi (clap, clap, clap-clap-clap)

 

This Chattanooga team could be Legendary.

 

Oops, gotta wipe the drool off my keyboard.

[Seth Stohs]

What are his off speed pitches like? Is his FB straight or does it have movement.

 

Hopefully he isn't another Jim Hoey

 

His slider between 89-91 is pretty devastating. 

[Willihammer]

Of course, when you're a 21-year-old coming out of a major college conference and firing 100-MPH fastballs at Single-A hitters, sometimes command issues can stay hidden.

I've never heard of players hiding command issues in college or A ball. Can anyone site an example?

[nicksaviking]

Hopefully he isn't another Jim Hoey

 

Why not?  If he was, the team could just trade him for a top SS.

[gunnarthor]

Hopefully he isn't another Jim Hoey

Before the draft, a lot of draft mock drafts had Burdi going to Detroit in the first round.  A few had another team taking him but the consensus was that he was a first round talent.  Hoey was a 13th round pick.  While he could throw hard, he never excited prospect guys like Burdi has.  Obviously, Burdi might not throw a pitch in the majors but I would bet a  lot of money that he has a better ML career than Hoey.

[TNTwinsFan]

With the Twins by June 2015! Closing by June 2016!

[nicksaviking]

Before the draft, a lot of draft mock drafts had Burdi going to Detroit in the first round.  A few had another team taking him but the consensus was that he was a first round talent.  Hoey was a 13th round pick.  While he could throw hard, he never excited prospect guys like Burdi has.  Obviously, Burdi might not throw a pitch in the majors but I would bet a  lot of money that he has a better ML career than Hoey.

 

Not to mention that after Hoey's shoulder surgery he had huge control issues.  Aside from his first start, that doesn't appear to be a major concern for Burdi.

[Nick Nelson]

I've never heard of players hiding command issues in college or A ball. Can anyone site an example?

What I mean is that if he's missing the zone while throwing triple digits against less advanced hitters, they might be more likely to chase and bail him out.

[Seth Stohs]

I'm assuming the Hoey stuff is a joke... it's weird to bring up, but some like bringing up negatives a lot. 

 

The two aren't really comparable in any way. Hoey threw 97. Burdi is consistently above that and has secondary pitches. This guy has some elite talent. 

[gunnarthor]

I'm assuming the Hoey stuff is a joke... it's weird to bring up, but some like bringing up negatives a lot. 

 

 

Do you even read your own website?

[Steve Lein]

If I remember correctly, doesn't he have an inconsistent changeup he was working on? I know he doesn't really need it with the hard two pitch mix he possesses, but how great would it be to flash that third pitch here and there.

 

Saw him throw an inning in Cedar Rapids (along with a start from Lewis Thorpe) that I wrote about here.

 

He does have some form of a changeup, and it is inconsistent. But in that article I have video of a 3-pitch strikeout he had. The last pitch to the guy was one of the dirtiest changeup's I've ever seen. It dropped off the table and froze the hitter in almost comedic fashion to catch the outside corner for a looking K.

 

He may not need it, but it's a great extra weapon to have.

[Willihammer]

What I mean is that if he's missing the zone while throwing triple digits against less advanced hitters, they might be more likely to chase and bail him out.

Are college and A-ball walk rates that unreliable?

[markos]

Are college and A-ball walk rates that unreliable?

I don't know how reliable those stats are, but there is the example of Corey Knebel. He was drafted #39 overall in 2013. In 2013 his walk rate was 8.6% in Rookie and Low-A. In 2014 his walk rate jumped up to 13% in AA and AAA. I don't know how much stock you should take in a single example (probably just slightly above zero), but it does seem to happen.

[Willihammer]

I don't know how reliable those stats are, but there is the example of Corey Knebel. He was drafted #39 overall in 2013. In 2013 his walk rate was 8.6% in Rookie and Low-A. In 2014 his walk rate jumped up to 13% in AA and AAA. I don't know how much stock you should take in a single example (probably just slightly above zero), but it does seem to happen.

Interesting. Maybe that's one case. Its probably worth noting he put up a 7.7% walk rate in limited MLB action following that spike in AA-AAA.

[tobi0040]

I don't know how reliable those stats are, but there is the example of Corey Knebel. He was drafted #39 overall in 2013. In 2013 his walk rate was 8.6% in Rookie and Low-A. In 2014 his walk rate jumped up to 13% in AA and AAA. I don't know how much stock you should take in a single example (probably just slightly above zero), but it does seem to happen.

 

Not to mention, you typcally are going off sometimes as little as 30-40 IP...so walk rates have a very small sample.

[kellyvance]

I'd like to see Reed and Burdi in this year's bullpen. Take a good look at Sano and Bux and Rosario too.  I think a roster full of whiz kids would be fun.

[Eris]

I've never heard of players hiding command issues in college or A ball. Can anyone site an example?

Shooter Hunt.  Maybe. I am not really sure what his issues were, but his walks zoomed out of control.  I would also say that his control was never great to begin with.   He started off OK but not great.  3.86 BB/9 at Tulane. 5.9 BB/9 in 2008 and ~ 16 BB/9 in 2009.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hunt--001sho

 

CAREER NOTES: Two-time first-team All-Conference USA selection...originally enrolled as a pitcher/catcher at the University of Virginia before transferring to Tulane in the summer of 2006...in two seasons with the Green Wave, posted a combined 15-10 record, a 2.65 ERA and a .204 opponent batting average...started 31 of the 32 games he appeared in during his Tulane career, during which time he posted a 10.33 strikeout-per-nine-inning average and a 2.67 strikeout-to-walk ratio after fanning 230 batters and walking just 86 in 200.1 innings of work...

Edited February 9, 2015 by Eris

[Dantes929]

I'd like to see Reed and Burdi in this year's bullpen. Take a good look at Sano and Bux and Rosario too.  I think a roster full of whiz kids would be fun.

Especially if May and Meyer are already in the mix.

[Steve Lein]

Examples of players who could hide command issues in low-levels is as old as the minor leagues. Well, the modern minor leagues (Rookie leagues through AAA).

 

Shooter Hunt is a perfect example of one for the Twins. Billy Bullock is another. If I spent time looking I'd probably find at least 20 others for the Twins... In just the past 10 years...

 

If you're at all into reading sites like Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, etc... which focus on the minor leagues, you will have read at some point a statement along the lines of: "[so and so] has a ceiling of a [whatever], but could also end up a AA-command flameout." It is very much a thing.

[Willihammer]

Shooter Hunt.  Maybe. I am not really sure what his issues were, but his walks zoomed out of control.  I would also say that his control was never great to begin with.   He started off OK but not great.  3.86 BB/9 at Tulane. 5.9 BB/9 in 2008 and ~ 16 BB/9 in 2009.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hunt--001sho

 

CAREER NOTES: Two-time first-team All-Conference USA selection...originally enrolled as a pitcher/catcher at the University of Virginia before transferring to Tulane in the summer of 2006...in two seasons with the Green Wave, posted a combined 15-10 record, a 2.65 ERA and a .204 opponent batting average...started 31 of the 32 games he appeared in during his Tulane career, during which time he posted a 10.33 strikeout-per-nine-inning average and a 2.67 strikeout-to-walk ratio after fanning 230 batters and walking just 86 in 200.1 innings of work...

That's an interesting case but nobody triples their walk rate jumping A to AA unless there's something else going on. I know a groin injury was in there somewhere but I imagine there were other issues.

 

In lieu of more examples, is there a study or any kind of research on this topic of increasing BB rates jumping from A to higher level do to hitters having better plate discipline?

[nicksaviking]

BB in college are probably something to be more skeptical about.  I'd guess once the pitcher gets to full season ball however, the BB rate is probably a decent baseline for future projection. Seems to me the numbers start to become a little more guessable by that time, assuming we're not dealing with a small sample size issue. 

[Dr. Evil]

I think Burdi will breeze through AA and a month in to the season get called up. By midseason fans will be wanting him to close and Perkins to set up.

 

It wouldn't be the first time I have been wrong though.

[ScrapTheNickname]

RE BABIP:

 

Burdi's was .406.

 

We're supposed to accept that this means he was unlucky, but couldn't it also mean that batters, when they did connect with his fast ball, laced it around the diamond with impunity?  

[Nick Nelson]

RE BABIP:

 

Burdi's was .406.

 

We're m supposed to accept that this means he was unlucky, but couldn't it also mean that batters, when they did connect with his fast ball, laced it around the diamond with impunity?  

If he were giving up a lot of XBH I might be inclined to believe that, but 11 of the 13 hits he allowed were singles. I think it's just luck/sample static. 

 

Of course, any drop in BABIP will be offset by the fact that he's most likely not going to keep striking out half the batters he faces as he moves up.

[nater79a]

RE BABIP:

 

Burdi's was .406.

 

We're supposed to accept that this means he was unlucky, but couldn't it also mean that batters, when they did connect with his fast ball, laced it around the diamond with impunity?  

 

Pitch thrown 100 mph. Ball meets bat. It's going hard somewhere!

[nater79a]

I see Burdi made #99 in the Baseball Prospectus Top-101 that they just released. Pretty impressive for someone that is strictly a reliever.