Article: 5th Starter Candidate: Alex Meyer

[tobi0040]

was he working all the pitches in his current repertoire during those years? Would he fall back on his better pitchers to avoid the walks, instead of continuing to work them?

 

My understanding is he picked up a circle change from Yohan Pino last year, but the FB and SL have been the same these years.  In which case, working on a new pitch in AAA could lead to control issues. 

 

I don't think you get pitch fx data for minor league guys....but it would be interesting to see what percent of those changeups were for strikes relative to his other two pitches.

Edited February 6, 2015 by tobi0040

[markos]

I agree that if he fails as a starter, he would probably be a really good reliever. But let's see if he fails as a starter first.  Perkins went from a below average starter to a really good closer.  I want to ensure we have pursued every avenue first.  I don't think he should be moved to the pen after one more shoulder injury, I am not sure if that is what you are implying.

I did kind of say that, and I think for the most part I will stand by that, though with the caveat of having it be one more "serious" shoulder injury.

 

I think for the most part we are basically saying the same thing. I am not advocating for Meyer to be moved to the bullpen right now. I too want Meyer to be a starter until he fails as a starter. However, I think we have different definitions of "fails as a starter" (and there is no "right" definition). I am probably on the more conservative end, and so if Meyer struggles with another shoulder issue this year (making it three years in a row), I would prefer to have him switch roles before suffering something catastrophic. But I can definitely see the viewpoint where "fails as a starter" means something much more serious has happened. And if I recall correctly, I'm pretty sure Perkins dealt with a couple seasons of fairly serious issues before he was moved out of the rotation.

[tobi0040]

I did kind of say that, and I think for the most part I will stand by that, though with the caveat of having it be one more "serious" shoulder injury.

 

I think for the most part we are basically saying the same thing. I am not advocating for Meyer to be moved to the bullpen right now. I too want Meyer to be a starter until he fails as a starter. However, I think we have different definitions of "fails as a starter" (and there is no "right" definition). I am probably on the more conservative end, and so if Meyer struggles with another shoulder issue this year (making it three years in a row), I would prefer to have him switch roles before suffering something catastrophic. But I can definitely see the viewpoint where "fails as a starter" means something much more serious has happened. And if I recall correctly, I'm pretty sure Perkins dealt with a couple seasons of fairly serious issues before he was moved out of the rotation.

 

I tend to very much prefer having talent in the rotation.  One more shoulder injury may have me tinker with his mechanics to limit the shoulder issues.  If that doesn't work, let it rip in the pen.

[h2oface]

I tend to very much prefer having talent in the rotation.  One more shoulder injury may have me tinker with his mechanics to limit the shoulder issues.  If that doesn't work, let it rip in the pen.

Exactly. IF that happens, there are several starters to replace him for a spell. Then you can try those with less talent. And Berrios could be a real surprise before you know it. 

[jimmer]

Exactly. IF that happens, there are several starters to replace him for a spell. Then you can try those with less talent. And Berrios could be a real surprise before you know it. 

I am way more excited to see Berrios suit up as a Twin than I am about Meyer. I Meyer the next Morrow, only taller?

Edited February 6, 2015 by jimmer

[nicksaviking]

Sorry if you folks have heard this one from me before, but I hate the rotation projections.  Meyer does not project to be a #3 starter; #3 starters don't throw 98 with ++ strikeout potential.  Meyer projects to be a #1-2 starter or back of the bullpen arm. 

 

I'm sorry if their rating criteria doesn't match the real life model of a MLB rotation, but that doesn't change the fact that their evaluations are misleading.  Fireballing relievers have a repertoire and velocity more in common with front of the rotation arms than they do with the traditional command concious mid-rotation arms.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sorry if you folks have heard this one from me before, but I hate the rotation projections.  Meyer does not project to be a #3 starter; #3 starters don't throw 98 with ++ strikeout potential.  Meyer projects to be a #1-2 starter or back of the bullpen arm. 

I wouldn't read too much into "#3 starter" type projections.  Obviously the quality of a #3 starter varies by the quality of the staff/team.  And nobody agrees much on "ace" criteria (are aces the top 30 starters in MLB?  15?  45?) so I wouldn't expect much agreement on other rotation spots either.

 

Meyer could achieve this hypothetical "#3 starter" level and still be an acceptable #1-2 on many clubs, easily on this Twins club, and especially if he can reliably repeat that performance.

[tobi0040]

I wouldn't read too much into "#3 starter" type projections.  Obviously the quality of a #3 starter varies by the quality of the staff/team.  And nobody agrees much on "ace" criteria (are aces the top 30 starters in MLB?  15?  45?) so I wouldn't expect much agreement on other rotation spots either.

 

Meyer could achieve this hypothetical "#3 starter" level and still be an acceptable #1-2 on many clubs, easily on this Twins club, and especially if he can reliably repeat that performance.

 

True, in the sense that Detroit's #3 is better than the Twins #3 last year....

 

But when scouts say #3 starter, I am guessing we are talking 3.90 to 4.30 ERA.  Something in that range.  I think Meyer could be much better than that over time.

[Mike Sixel]

FWIW, Kiley on Fangraphs today said he thinks Meyer is a future closer, not starter.....

[jimmer]

FWIW, Kiley on Fangraphs today said he thinks Meyer is a future closer, not starter.....

yup, I was the one who asked the question in the chat :-)  Additionally on page one of this thread, I pointed out his breakdown of Meyer where he said most scouts consider him a future closer and Kiley said #3/#4 starter or closer.

[zenser]

The only concern I have with Meyer is that the few times I checked the AAA box score, it seems like he threw a lot of pitches and would barely get 5 IP. I will be the first to admit I did not read every box score or every overview each time he pitched. That was just the tendencies I noticed from occasional readings.

 

I am a big fan of his and I hope he gets a spot in the rotation. However, I have a feeling Milone gets it and we see Meyer in AAA to start the year.

[tobi0040]

The only concern I have with Meyer is that the few times I checked the AAA box score, it seems like he threw a lot of pitches and would barely get 5 IP. I will be the first to admit I did not read every box score or every overview each time he pitched. That was just the tendencies I noticed from occasional readings.

 

I am a big fan of his and I hope he gets a spot in the rotation. However, I have a feeling Milone gets it and we see Meyer in AAA to start the year.

 

He defnitely through a lot of pitches, but he was on a pitch count of about 80 a game for most of the season.  That played a role too.

[HitInAPinch]

Alex Meyer is 25 and hasn't played in the majors yet.

I wouldn't get caught up on his age.  His birthday was Jan. 3 

[jimmer]

I wouldn't get caught up on his age.  His birthday was Jan. 3

Seems the point he was making about Wimmers is that it's about time to see what he has.  And my point is, it's about time to see what Meyer has.  Past time on both, really. The fact that Meyer JUST turned 25 doesn't change that.

Edited February 6, 2015 by jimmer

[HitInAPinch]

I don't get moving Meyers to the bullpen at all.  He has been working and getting stretched out for role of a starter for the past 3 years.  If the Twins need a reliever, pull one of the guys out the minors.

 

On another note:  Why is Gibson's spot on the rotation a lock?  When he was on, he was very good.  When he was off, he way off.  I'd call his spot 'pending competition', with Nolasco's next in line.

[Dantes929]

How many #3 starters have two plus pitches?  A 96+ fastball and a 89 mph wipeout slider?  I think Baker in his prime. That is a #3 starter.  He did not have those pitches.

Liriano comes to mind and I guess he has run the full gamut from #1 to #5 while having up to 3 plus pitches.    I am anxious to see Meyer but basically promotions should be earned.   May had a better body of work last year than Meyer.  

[tobi0040]

Regarding liriano, I would argue he probably had the best slider in the game and a plus plus fastball, before tj. After his slider was probably the only plus offering and even that was on a lower level than pre tj. I saw a classic game last year. Hitters were missing his slider by a foot. The heater was 97. Man.

[Paul Pleiss]

"I have little doubt that he will be up in the big leagues before June"

 

my head is spinning. If he's not up in April something has gone wrong. He should have been up LAST june. The Twins keep waiting for consistency, fine, but Nolasco was consistently bad, and Kyle Gibson was consistently inconsistent, so that argument seems laughable. Let the kid pitch and see what he can do. There's no time like the present.

 

ALEX MEYER 2015!

[Seth Stohs]

Nolasco has many years of a solid track record and a large contract. Gibson did enough to be in the rotation on OPening Day. Of course, that's still subject to change after a couple of months. 

 

I think the article (and I may be biased since I wrote it and read all box scores throughout the year) pretty clearly gives plenty of reason to give Meyer a month or so in AAA to work through some things. It won't hurt him at all. 

 

Meyer is going to get up to the Twins in 2015. There's no doubt, unless he's hurt. But he's going to make it. One or two months is not going to make a huge difference. Talking to him a little bit, he will handle whatever decision they make very well and be better for it. 

[h2oface]

FWIW, Kiley on Fangraphs today said he thinks Meyer is a future closer, not starter.....

...... and it is worth absolutely nothing. These guys are wrong so many more times than they are right. He could be right, but no team would not try him as a starter first. Hey....... John Smoltz's furture was in the bullpen, too, but not until several years as a starter. 

[jimmer]

...... and it is worth absolutely nothing. These guys are wrong so many more times than they are right. He could be right, but no team would not try him as a starter first. Hey....... John Smoltz's furture was in the bullpen, too, but not until several years as a starter. 

Kiley never said they shouldn't try him as a starter.  He, and many other scouts, just think eventually he'll be a closer. I don;t know why this evaluation upsets so many people.  These guys get paid for their opinions because they're good at it, not because they are perfect at it.

[tobi0040]

Seth,

 

I am likely more cynical than you. But you give Meyer a month or more in aaa and I think some in the twins brass get giddy about delaying him yet again. The temptation of him needing to work on something could arise.

[South Dakota Tom]

We have 52 replies but one question:  what do we have?  Is he a late-inning stopper?  A top of the rotation guy?  A long reliever?  A #3?  You have to let this guy pitch!  He's going to be whatever he is, but his confidence is not going to increase or decrease depreciably in minor league baseball.  He has big-league talent, and he needs to slot in to this team now.  He's way past worrying about his ego getting bruised by being hit.  He might rise to the occasion but we are never going to find out until we put him on the field.  He does not strike me as a pitcher who needs more seasoning.  Whatever strengths or shortcomings he has, he is ready to work them out in the big leagues.

 

Ready or not ready, he's a big boy.  I think he's ready - to find out.  (I know I am ready to find out).

[Kwak]

We have 52 replies but one question:  what do we have?  Is he a late-inning stopper?  A top of the rotation guy?  A long reliever?  A #3?  You have to let this guy pitch!  He's going to be whatever he is, but his confidence is not going to increase or decrease depreciably in minor league baseball.  He has big-league talent, and he needs to slot in to this team now.  He's way past worrying about his ego getting bruised by being hit.  He might rise to the occasion but we are never going to find out until we put him on the field.  He does not strike me as a pitcher who needs more seasoning.  Whatever strengths or shortcomings he has, he is ready to work them out in the big leagues.

 

Ready or not ready, he's a big boy.  I think he's ready - to find out.  (I know I am ready to find out).

There are more things happening that developing Meyer, or for that matter May and every other minor league pitcher worth considering for a major league job.  The paying fan base is deteriorating--fast!  Complaints include more than just losing:  games decided too early, unknown and underqualified pitchers, and the admission from management that the pitching is to blame.  The executive committee has to fix things fast or risk winning in the future with an empty stadium.

[Dantes929]

Kiley never said they shouldn't try him as a starter.  He, and many other scouts, just think eventually he'll be a closer. I don;t know why this evaluation upsets so many people.  These guys get paid for their opinions because they're good at it, not because they are perfect at it.

Doesn't upset me in the least.   Don't know why lack of control plays better as closer or long relief than it does as a starter, though.

[jorgenswest]

There are more things happening that developing Meyer, or for that matter May and every other minor league pitcher worth considering for a major league job.  The paying fan base is deteriorating--fast!  Complaints include more than just losing:  games decided too early, unknown and underqualified pitchers, and the admission from management that the pitching is to blame.  The executive committee has to fix things fast or risk winning in the future with an empty stadium.

Is this an argument to go with a veteran? Meyer and May will likely struggle. I would have given all of Correia's starts to them last year, but I am not certain they would have performed better in their rookie year. I do think that there second 25 starts would be better than their first 25. I doubt Viola brought in many fans in his first 50 starts.

[Willihammer]

On another note:  Why is Gibson's spot on the rotation a lock?  When he was on, he was very good.  When he was off, he way off.  I'd call his spot 'pending competition', with Nolasco's next in line.

Absolutely. I'd also add, that a lot of times when Gibson was "off," he wasn't really that off. He was just being a contact pitcher and achieving the mixed results that are the nature of the beast.

Edited February 7, 2015 by Willihammer

[Kwak]

Is this an argument to go with a veteran? Meyer and May will likely struggle. I would have given all of Correia's starts to them last year, but I am not certain they would have performed better in their rookie year. I do think that there second 25 starts would be better than their first 25. I doubt Viola brought in many fans in his first 50 starts.

Not an arguement but an observation/conclusion. 

[TheLeviathan]

Absolutely. I'd also add, that a lot of times when Gibson was "off," he wasn't really that off. He was just being a contact pitcher and achieving the mixed results that are the nature of the beast.

His, of course, being extra mixy thanks to our "how many DHs can we put in the field" strategy of defense.

[jimmer]

His, of course, being extra mixy thanks to our "how many DHs can we put in the field" strategy of defense.

Exactly.  He had a FIP of 3.80, but an ERA of 4.47.  Not surprisingly, Gibson was hurt pretty badly by the 'defense' we had out there.  Too bad that wasn't addressed this offseason.